How to Avoid a Civil War

 

John Hawkins has written a cautionary piece for Townhall.com titled “7 Forces Driving America Toward Civil War.” Those forces — upon which he elaborates — are:

  1. A Post-Constitutional Era
  2. Tribalism
  3. Federal Government Too Powerful
  4. Moral Decline
  5. The Debt
  6. Lack Of A Shared Culture
  7. Gun Grabbing

Looking at that list, it seems that there is sufficient overlap that it could be condensed to two: Disrespect for our Constitutional System and Lack of a Shared Culture. The reason I am reducing this list is that it results in a short-hand test for our national policies and laws:

  1. Does this policy or law tend to support our constitutional system of division of power, equal justice under law, maximizing individual liberty, and protection of property rights and private contracting?
  2. Does this policy or law tend to support or undermine a common culture that respects conscience, celebrates freedom, emphasizes personal accountability rather than collective punishment, and rewards honesty and deferred gratification?

Notice what the tests do not do:

  1. Discriminate for or against anyone for an immutable characteristic.
  2. Result in global citizenship.
  3. Impose costs on society to cater to anyone who does not want to fully integrate into our common culture.
  4. Deprive anyone of their individual liberty, speech, movement, association, and thought.
  5. Deny anyone the fundamental right of effective personal self-defense.
  6. Undermine republican principles in favor of mob rule.
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  1. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    philo (View Comment):

    You say “disrespect for,” I say “ignorance of”:

    https://youtu.be/08uk99L8oqQ

    Whether you take that to mean inside the workings of government or among the voting masses: I rest my case.

     

    @philo interesting point. It suggests that those who want a “living constitution” need only be educated in the history and philosophies underlying the constitution and everything would be good. 

    • #31
  2. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    “We want to secede.”

    ”Ok. Sign this.”

    ”What’s that?”

    ”That relinquishes your citizens from their claims on Social Security, cancels their WIC cards and calls their federal student loans due in 90 days.”

    ”Uh, can we talk about this?”

    You have been purchased. You are less of a citizen than property. Now stay on the plantation where you belong.

    • #32
  3. philo Member
    philo
    @philo

    Rodin (View Comment): …and everything would be good.

    Well, let’s not get carried away.  But, in general, yes, things would be closer to good than not.  A whole lot of being “educated” didn’t help Woodrow Wilson on this front but even a hint of constitutional knowledge bouncing around between Nancy’s ears might be nice.  It says a lot about a party (and a country) when monumental idiocy can rise (or be pushed) to such heights, display that idiocy on the world stage, and today stand poised to regrip that ridiculous large gavel yet again:

    Image result for nancy pelosi large gavel

    A general citizenry even moderately “educated in the history and philosophies underlying the constitution” would be ashamed of such performance and not likely to be fooled by the same face twice.  But, here we are…

    • #33
  4. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending (View Comment):

    Personally, I don’t see civil war.

    If a state, or even a group of states, were to vote to secede from the union I’d wager that Washington D.C. would rather negotiate a free trade agreement with the new country than fight a war over the issue. The incentives for keeping the union together by force simply aren’t there like they were in the 1860s (namely, the threat of an expansionist Confederate States of America eyeing the western territories which had yet to be granted statehood).

     

    This is reassuring. I have been concerned with how we deal with coastal US states which contain and service much of our military – we just retain the bases, possibly expanding them for shipping purposes. 

    Also; any National Forest would remain a part of the US proper…. 

    • #34
  5. AltarGirl Member
    AltarGirl
    @CM

    philo (View Comment):
    A general citizenry even moderately “educated in the history and philosophies underlying the constitution” would be ashamed of such performance and not likely to be fooled by the same face twice. But, here we are…

    So here is where Bible and Constitution meet – even people who are well educated and debate these things frequently disagree. Consider freedom from religion vs freedom of religion. How on earth do you work around that?

    • #35
  6. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    AltarGirl (View Comment):
    Consider freedom from religion vs freedom of religion. How on earth do you work around that?

    Ironic how many “living constitution” advocates think they are free from religion but have merely adopted a different form of religion than any flowing from the Judeo-Christian tradition? And how they enable the expansion of Islamism?

    • #36
  7. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    EJHill (View Comment):

    “We want to secede.”

    ”Ok. Sign this.”

    ”What’s that?”

    ”That relinquishes your citizens from their claims on Social Security, cancels their WIC cards and calls their federal student loans due in 90 days.”

    ”Uh, can we talk about this?”

    You have been purchased. You are less of a citizen than property. Now stay on the plantation where you belong.

    Well individuals can’t secede anyway.  Really secession makes even less sense now than before given the vastly more integrated  society we have. If it works it works it can only work if a whole geopolitical unit is committed to it. Now you could have an armed revolt that overthrows the government and establishes a new political order. Which would really be a more classical form of civil war. Like they have in Europe. But now I think they like to call those Revolutions. 

     

    • #37
  8. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Postmodern Hoplite (View Comment):

    @rodin – Do you think that California is going to be the ragged, bleeding edge of this issue?

    It is not unusual to read of California Progressives arguing for the nullification of Federal laws unpopular among the California ruling class. It’s also not hard to find suggestions that California might secede from the Union if it the rest of the US does not follow it’s lead towards the Progressive Utopia.

    What are your thoughts? Will California be the bellwether?

    Hoyacon (View Comment):
    “Civil war” strikes me as somewhat hyperbolic, but I think the list speaks for itself. It’s written solely from a single perspective and offers little room for common ground. Of course these issues, as framed, are divisive. Or am I missing the point?

    It would seem California will be a bell weather, but events always surprise us. Certainly California with its one-party system, wealth and size is best positioned to champion a civil war if they don’t get what they want out of DC. And it is not getting what they want that is the key. Progressives have been getting what they want for a long time. And every time they get one thing, they want more. Reagan was a push back while Bush I and II were mostly accommodations. The Contract with America constrained Clinton, but with Obama it was Katy Bar the Door. So the electorate tried to rein in progressivism with Trumpism, but the outcome is still in doubt. A civil war happens only when the divisions are both sharp and the positions well-defended. We are getting sharpness even as we are yet to find out whether there are any significant redoubts for our constitution and national character.

    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    • #38
  9. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Postmodern Hoplite (View Comment):

    It is not unusual to read of California Progressives arguing for the nullification of Federal laws unpopular among the California ruling class. It’s also not hard to find suggestions that California might secede from the Union if it the rest of the US does not follow it’s lead towards the Progressive Utopia.

    What are your thoughts? Will California be the bellwether?

    My 2¢:

    If Trump is reelected and then succeeded by a non-globalist Republican, the likelihood of California secession increases dramatically and will probably happen by 2035.

    If Kamala Harris or one of her ilk succeeds Trump, California stays in, but the Republic is over and wider fragmentation is likely by 2060.

    • #39
  10. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Victor Davis Hanson’s article today is apropos. 

     

    [….] We are entering revolutionary times. The law is no longer equally applied. The media are the ministry of truth. The Democratic party is a revolutionary force. And it is all getting scary.

    • #40
  11. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    Mancur Olsen makes the argument that radical change, most especially economic growth causes revolution, political instability and civil wars.  It’s the best argument put forth so far and is consistent with my experience.  However, this holds for non market, mixed economies, or pre market economies.  For market economies rapid growth leads to lots of stress, and political movements, and special interest ( union strikes etc.) resistance, but if a truly market economy allows adjustment and entrepreneurship, growth overwhelms the disintegration caused by new jobs, new technology, divided families, evolving culture, new people and different people even within a family, because the culture of ones parents may become irrelevant to the kids.   

    • #41
  12. Misthiocracy, Joke Pending Member
    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending
    @Misthiocracy

    Valiuth (View Comment):

    I just don’t see any State in the Union seceding over any of the current political arguments. At most you might have individuals trying to start up revolts but with no institutional help and both State and Federal opposition (from law enforcement agencies) such moves will be quickly crushed (as they should be) and be properly labeled as domestic terrorism at worst depending on how violent such “uprisings” are. The dominant culture will eventually swamp the minority culture in time on the big divisive social issues, and some new social equilibrium will form around what the new manners should be regarding taboo speech. America always had a big streak of Puritanicalism, just the bugaboos keep changing.

    The largest armed attempt to create a quasi-independent political territory on American soil wasn’t brought down by military action.  It was brought down mostly by land-use lawsuits by environmentalists.  It only lasted for about four years.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rajneeshpuram

    • #42
  13. Misthiocracy, Joke Pending Member
    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending
    @Misthiocracy

    TBA (View Comment):

    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending (View Comment):

    Personally, I don’t see civil war.

    If a state, or even a group of states, were to vote to secede from the union I’d wager that Washington D.C. would rather negotiate a free trade agreement with the new country than fight a war over the issue. The incentives for keeping the union together by force simply aren’t there like they were in the 1860s (namely, the threat of an expansionist Confederate States of America eyeing the western territories which had yet to be granted statehood).

     

    This is reassuring. I have been concerned with how we deal with coastal US states which contain and service much of our military – we just retain the bases, possibly expanding them for shipping purposes.

    It worked for Sevastopol.

    • #43
  14. Misthiocracy, Joke Pending Member
    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending
    @Misthiocracy

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

     

    It would seem California will be a bell weather, but events always surprise us. Certainly California with its one-party system, wealth and size is best positioned to champion a civil war if they don’t get what they want out of DC. And it is not getting what they want that is the key. Progressives have been getting what they want for a long time. And every time they get one thing, they want more. Reagan was a push back while Bush I and II were mostly accommodations. The Contract with America constrained Clinton, but with Obama it was Katy Bar the Door. So the electorate tried to rein in progressivism with Trumpism, but the outcome is still in doubt. A civil war happens only when the divisions are both sharp and the positions well-defended. We are getting sharpness even as we are yet to find out whether there are any significant redoubts for our constitution and national character.

    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    • #44
  15. Misthiocracy, Joke Pending Member
    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending
    @Misthiocracy

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    My 2¢:

    If Trump is reelected and then succeeded by a non-globalist Republican, the likelihood of California secession increases dramatically and will probably happen by 2035.

    Only if that non-globalist Republican cuts the entitlement spending that so much of California’s population depends on.

    • #45
  16. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    Rodin (View Comment):

     

    It would seem California will be a bell weather, but events always surprise us. Certainly California with its one-party system, wealth and size is best positioned to champion a civil war if they don’t get what they want out of DC. And it is not getting what they want that is the key. Progressives have been getting what they want for a long time. And every time they get one thing, they want more. Reagan was a push back while Bush I and II were mostly accommodations. The Contract with America constrained Clinton, but with Obama it was Katy Bar the Door. So the electorate tried to rein in progressivism with Trumpism, but the outcome is still in doubt. A civil war happens only when the divisions are both sharp and the positions well-defended. We are getting sharpness even as we are yet to find out whether there are any significant redoubts for our constitution and national character.

    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    Baaaaah.

    • #46
  17. Nanda Panjandrum Member
    Nanda Panjandrum
    @

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):
    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    Autowrong at work again?

    • #47
  18. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):
    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    Autowrong at work again?

    I prefer to think of it as spell[expletive.]

    • #48
  19. Nanda Panjandrum Member
    Nanda Panjandrum
    @

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):
    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    Autowrong at work again?

    I prefer to think of it as spell[expletive.]

    But, can it actually *spell* “expletive”?

    • #49
  20. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):
    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    Autowrong at work again?

    I prefer to think of it as spell[expletive.]

    But, can it actually *spell* “expletive”?

    Yes, but not the Ricochet edition.

    • #50
  21. Freesmith Member
    Freesmith
    @

    “There is now so little interaction, commonality and intermarriage between rural/heartland/working class whites and urban/coastal whites that the difference between them is practically what social scientists would consider an ‘ethnic difference.’”

    Amy Chua – Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations (quoted in the April edition of Commentary)

    • #51
  22. TBA Coolidge
    TBA
    @RobtGilsdorf

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):

    Nanda Panjandrum (View Comment):

    Ontheleftcoast (View Comment):
    bellwether, not bell weather. /pedant

    Autowrong at work again?

    I prefer to think of it as spell[expletive.]

    But, can it actually *spell* “expletive”?

    <big-eyed paperclip>: Did you mean to type “split infinitive”? 

    • #52
  23. Ontheleftcoast Inactive
    Ontheleftcoast
    @Ontheleftcoast

    Freesmith (View Comment):

    “There is now so little interaction, commonality and intermarriage between rural/heartland/working class whites and urban/coastal whites that the difference between them is practically what social scientists would consider an ‘ethnic difference.’”

    Amy Chua – Political Tribes: Group Instinct and the Fate of Nations (quoted in the April edition of Commentary)

    Just stirring the pot, that’s more or less one of the things in the 19th century that got described as “separate races.”

    • #53
  24. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Valiuth: Well individuals can’t secede anyway.

    Who said anything about individuals? What part of “your citizens” didn’t you understand?

    • #54
  25. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    philo (View Comment):
    Image result for nancy pelosi large gavel

    “Ohhh, this thing is heavy.  Is there not a gentleman among you who’ll carry it for me?”

    • #55
  26. Misthiocracy, Joke Pending Member
    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending
    @Misthiocracy

    Rodin (View Comment):

    philo (View Comment):

    You say “disrespect for,” I say “ignorance of”:

    https://youtu.be/08uk99L8oqQ

    Whether you take that to mean inside the workings of government or among the voting masses: I rest my case.

     

    @philo interesting point. It suggests that those who want a “living constitution” need only be educated in the history and philosophies underlying the constitution and everything would be good.

    And then they read the 9th Amendment and discover that the Supreme Court actually does have the ability to invent individual rights out of thin air.

    • #56
  27. Randy Webster Inactive
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    I always understood that individual rights were inalienable, and that if a right wasn’t specifically prohibited by the Constitution, then we had it.  SCOTUS didn’t invent the right to privacy; it was there all along.  It discovered it.  I just don’t think the right to privacy enables the killing of the unborn.

    • #57
  28. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending (View Comment):
    And then they read the 9th Amendment and discover that the Supreme Court actually does have the ability to invent individual rights out of thin air.

    Randy Webster (View Comment):
    And then they read the 9th Amendment and discover that the Supreme Court actually does have the ability to invent individual rights out of thin air.

    @misthiocracy, I think @randywebster has the better characterization. 

     

    • #58
  29. Misthiocracy, Joke Pending Member
    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending
    @Misthiocracy

    Rodin (View Comment):

    Misthiocracy, Joke Pending (View Comment):
    And then they read the 9th Amendment and discover that the Supreme Court actually does have the ability to invent individual rights out of thin air.

    Randy Webster (View Comment):
    And then they read the 9th Amendment and discover that the Supreme Court actually does have the ability to invent individual rights out of thin air.

    @misthiocracy, I think @randywebster has the better characterization.

     

    You say potato, I say legislation from the bench.

    ;-)

    • #59
  30. Addiction Is A Choice Member
    Addiction Is A Choice
    @AddictionIsAChoice

    The infamous Kelo decision got me wondering: “How can there be a ‘right to privacy’ if our property is only ours in theory?” 

    • #60
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