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Deplorables’ Revenge and The Trump-State Twelve
Six years ago Missouri Senator Claire McCaskill trolled just enough Republicans to nominate Todd Akin as her opponent. Akin became the face of the face of the Deplorables; proof that Republicans really were stupid, backwards and evil.
In the short term the McCaskill Maneuver was a massive success. Democrats everywhere ran against Akin. Many of them won.
But the Deplorables have been getting their revenge.
First: swing voters sided with the deplorables when Hillary tried to reprise McCaskill’s maneuver.
And now Time’s Up on the Senate terms of the McCaskill Maneuver’s beneficiaries.
The Trump-State Twelve — the dozen Democrats on the ballot in Trump states and Minnesota — are in trouble. Most experts don’t think states like Michigan and Minnesota are in play. They didn’t think they were in play in the presidential election either.
Pundits focused on how Trump needed these senators. Politico wrote of How Trump Lost Manchin on Taxes. The more important but ignored story was how Manchin and friends hurt themselves by voting against Trump and tax cuts.
Once upon a time, all politics were local. But now senators mostly vote the party line. Local papers are gone. So are earmarks. Voting for the incumbent with seniority no longer brings home the pork. Blue-state Republican senators are gone. Trump-state Democratic senators may soon be extinct too.
Democrats are demanding the Trump-State Twelve sabotage their campaigns with useless votes against Trump’s Supreme Court nominee. And there will be more votes where the twelve will have to choose whether they want to alienate swing voters or their base.
Trump has a megaphone and a bully pulpit to exploit the wedge. He will call on every Senator to declare whether or not they support abolishing ICE, harassing Trump supporters, and packing the court.
The Democrat donors, media, base, blue-state socialists and presidential candidates are intent on demonizing Trump and his supporters.
The gap between the enraged Democratic base and the swing voter is growing.
McCaskill complained months ago about Democrats who were running for president by radicalizing the base.
In 2012 she made Todd Akin the face of Republicans. She rode demonization of the Deplorables to six more years in the Senate.
This November the Deplorables strike back.
Published in Elections
I wonder if Todd Akin would have succeeded in his race if Republicans had come to his defense? Anyone can say something stupid, easily misinterpreted, or easily misunderstood. By not supporting Akin, in-office Republicans showed newcomers will not be defended by incumbents, or the RNC if they screw up.
Dems on the other hand, will circle the wagons nine times out of ten. For every Gary Hart they throw overboard, they will save a Maxine Waters (corruption) or Sheila Jackson Lee (incredibly stupid statements). Even Bill Clinton got a pass from behavior which would sink any CEO . . .
Interesting. I favored him withdrawing while there was still time. But it sure is interesting seeing Trump bull his way through so many things. Though even he sometimes cuts bait.
You bring up an interesting point, Gil. The farther left the Dems go, the more alienated the Dems in the Trump states are going to feel. Not only that, at least a couple like Manchin have a number of Conservative values, and may even be more in alignment with Conservatives than people like Warren and Schumer. Some of them are probably doing some serious thinking about their choices. I hope they choose Trump.
There was an excellent candidate running in the primary against Aiken. Her name is Sarah Steelman . She was in the mold of another Sarah with whom we are all familiar. I never had even heard of Aiken. That fall we took a road trip across the state to St Louis. I 70 was littered with signs for Aiken. Gil Reich is exactly correct. McCaskill spent several million dollars helping to elect Aiken as her Republican opponent. Steelman would have annihilated McCaskill. I hope Josh Hawley can whip her this time. But what Stad said is right on the money. Aiken made an inartful comment concerning women/rape/abortion and the entire world knew about it within 24 hours. Every Republican dropped him like a poisonous snake and ran the other direction. The national RNC withheld funds. McCaskill breezed back to DC in her private jet. It was over in 60 seconds.
Trump either gets his SCOTUS nominee confirmed before the election or after the election. That’s what these Democrat Senators in Trump states must assess.
I completely agree. And it will be easier after the election.
No compromise on “the List” Mr. President. Even if Mitch is begging you for it.
If Dems and RINO Republicans derail the nominee before the elections, Trump should re-nominate her afterwards.
Oops, did I let my preference slip out? Hehe . . .
Aiken’s statement was misinformed and inaccurate but not completely wrong, either. What are the chances he has family that has struggled with infertility?
Chronic stress does decrease fertility, but there are enough pregnancies resulting from rape that that theory can’t be relied on in making judgements.
He is also right that not every claim of rape is a true claim.
Conflating the two was clumsy and he sounded ill prepared and flustered for such questions.
Conservative Republicans need to be schooled in handling controversial and sensitive cases with “the states should decide” or “it should be returned to the states” or “that should not be the scope of the federal government” and stop. Like… Trump!
It is a proper small-government position and defangs the media as they have nothing to grab onto in order to rip you a new one.
I think political advisors are many Republican candidates’ worst enemies.
Agreed. My biggest problem with his comments was that it showed he wasn’t fully accepting the consequences of the policies he’d impose. “Not all rape victims get pregnant” is a lousy answer to the challenge “your position will require some rape victims to carry their rapists’ babies to term.”
I have the same complaint about pro-choice people who deny that what they’re allowing to be killed is both human and alive.
All possible positions in the abortion argument have some horrifying implications. I’d like my policy-makers to know that.
It will be easier before the election, precisely because McConnell will be desperate to cling to his Leadership, instead of being voted out by the new MAGA caucus after the midterms. Democrats who already voted for Trump nominees to the Courts of Appeal will be hard pressed to say no after saying yes, when they must explain this to an electorate that went heavily for President Trump.