Contributor Post Created with Sketch. Why the US Will Become the “Undisputed Global Oil and Gas leader for Decades”

 

This new analysis and forecast from the Energy Information Agency, reflected in the above chart, is amazing:

A remarkable ability to unlock new resources cost-effectively pushes combined United States oil and gas output to a level 50% higher than any other country has ever managed; already a net exporter of gas, the US becomes a net exporter of oil in the late 2020s. In our projections, the 8 mb/d rise in US tight oil output from 2010 to 2025 would match the highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of oil markets. A 630 bcm increase in US shale gas production over the 15 years from 2008 would comfortably exceed the previous record for gas.

Expansion on this scale is having wide-ranging impacts within North America, fuelling major investments in petrochemicals and other energy-intensive industries. It is also reordering international trade flows and challenging incumbent suppliers and business models. By the mid-2020s, the United States become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter and a few years later a net exporter of oil — still a major importer of heavier crudes that suit the configuration of its refineries, but a larger exporter of light crude and refined products.

With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world’s consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil.

This is innovation in action, specifically the shale revolution. Check out this quote, via the Financial Times, from the EIA’s executive director: “The US will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come.”

But beyond that, the EIA report also shows the changing mix of how the world will meet its need for more energy (spoiler: bad news for coal):

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  1. DocJay Inactive

    Of course. It’s funny because I had a different Orange picture I’d be using as the reason. Silly me.

    • #1
    • November 14, 2017, at 4:10 PM PST
    • 3 likes
  2. Gazpacho Grande' Coolidge

    Somebody tell this guy who’s Mommy teaches at Harvard:

    Image result for matt damon fracking movie

    See? Everybody knows it. Everybody Matty talked to, agrees with him.

    • #2
    • November 14, 2017, at 4:43 PM PST
    • 2 likes
  3. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge

    I suspect the anti-fracking legal efforts will keep this from happening once the GOP is contained by the blue wave on 2018, 2020. Once the Democrats have secured their position their partnership with Russia will force this industry out as they push us into solar and wind.

    • #3
    • November 14, 2017, at 5:26 PM PST
    • 1 like
  4. PHCheese Member

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):
    I suspect the anti-fracking legal efforts will keep this from happening once the GOP is contained by the blue wave on 2018, 2020. Once the Democrats have secured their position their partnership with Russia will force this industry out as they push us into solar and wind.

    I am not sure about that. I talk to my friends in Pennsylvania about this. A great many wells have already been drilled and capped waiting for prices to go up and pipelines to be completed.

    • #4
    • November 14, 2017, at 6:08 PM PST
    • Like
  5. Steve C. Member

    This was not supposed to turn out this way.

    • #5
    • November 14, 2017, at 6:39 PM PST
    • Like
  6. Fake John/Jane Galt Coolidge

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):
    I suspect the anti-fracking legal efforts will keep this from happening once the GOP is contained by the blue wave on 2018, 2020. Once the Democrats have secured their position their partnership with Russia will force this industry out as they push us into solar and wind.

    I am not sure about that. I talk to my friends in Pennsylvania about this. A great many wells have already been drilled and capped waiting for prices to go up and pipelines to be completed.

    That still requires a friendly political environment and a tax structure that allows fracking to be economically viable. Portions of the Left and Russia / China do not want this to happen.

    • #6
    • November 14, 2017, at 6:58 PM PST
    • 1 like
  7. Dr. Strangelove Thatcher
    Dr. Strangelove Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    It’s now time for the U.S. to join OPEC.

    (I kid, I kid.)

    • #7
    • November 15, 2017, at 3:28 AM PST
    • Like
  8. ctlaw Coolidge

    PHCheese (View Comment):

    Fake John/Jane Galt (View Comment):
    I suspect the anti-fracking legal efforts will keep this from happening once the GOP is contained by the blue wave on 2018, 2020. Once the Democrats have secured their position their partnership with Russia will force this industry out as they push us into solar and wind.

    I am not sure about that. I talk to my friends in Pennsylvania about this. A great many wells have already been drilled and capped waiting for prices to go up and pipelines to be completed.

    But President Warren will just order the closure of any operating/dormant/building wells and pipelines (except for a few owned by big Democratic Party donors).

    • #8
    • November 15, 2017, at 3:38 AM PST
    • Like
  9. Viator Inactive
    Viator Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    What ever happened to “peak oil” and the loony peak oil chicken littles?

    It is worth remembering that Pethokoukis was skeptical of that nonsense for at least the last decade.

    “Clearly, the members of the National Petroleum Council, a federal advisory group representing the oil industry, are not believers in peak oil. “Fortunately, the world is not running out of energy resources,” concludes a new report. “Coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meeting total projected energy demand growth.” James Pethokoukis in 2007.

    • #9
    • November 15, 2017, at 4:27 AM PST
    • 2 likes
  10. YouCantMeanThat Coolidge

    Try The Absent Superpower, by Peter Zeihan

    • #10
    • November 16, 2017, at 11:13 AM PST
    • Like

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