This new analysis and forecast from the Energy Information Agency, reflected in the above chart, is amazing:
A remarkable ability to unlock new resources cost-effectively pushes combined United States oil and gas output to a level 50% higher than any other country has ever managed; already a net exporter of gas, the US becomes a net exporter of oil in the late 2020s. In our projections, the 8 mb/d rise in US tight oil output from 2010 to 2025 would match the highest sustained period of oil output growth by a single country in the history of oil markets. A 630 bcm increase in US shale gas production over the 15 years from 2008 would comfortably exceed the previous record for gas.
Expansion on this scale is having wide-ranging impacts within North America, fuelling major investments in petrochemicals and other energy-intensive industries. It is also reordering international trade flows and challenging incumbent suppliers and business models. By the mid-2020s, the United States become the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) exporter and a few years later a net exporter of oil — still a major importer of heavier crudes that suit the configuration of its refineries, but a larger exporter of light crude and refined products.
With the United States accounting for 80% of the increase in global oil supply to 2025 and maintaining near-term downward pressure on prices, the world’s consumers are not yet ready to say goodbye to the era of oil.
This is innovation in action, specifically the shale revolution. Check out this quote, via the Financial Times, from the EIA’s executive director: “The US will become the undisputed global oil and gas leader for decades to come.”
But beyond that, the EIA report also shows the changing mix of how the world will meet its need for more energy (spoiler: bad news for coal):