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Slowly but surely, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is trying to bring the Saudis into the 21st century. It is happening in fits and starts, and there are still many signs that the country has a long way to go, but I am cautiously optimistic.
Let’s assume he is successful in a way nearly unimaginable a decade ago, but not completely in bringing Saudi Arabia to current western civilization standards. In 250 years the Saudis will be pulling down his statue.
What would be the reasons, Rodin? Because he abandoned Wahhabism, or because those who followed him couldn’t maintain his efforts? Not a challenge, just curious.
No, they’re the problem. Iran could play a role, but by returning to the deeper civilization the Saudi’s lack. They’d have to have an Ataturk cleansing for half dozen decades.
I know this isn’t fair, but the guy in the picture with your post looks like how I’d imagine Satan.
His biggest barrier will be the Wahabbis and their cancerous belief system.
How are they the problem, I? I understand Iran’s deep history, but I see no indication that they will go in that direction, none at all. We’ve also seen deep civilizations destroyed over time.
And quite frankly I can’t see him abandoning them, Doc. They’ve been intertwined for a long time. I hope people don’t think I’m “recommending” the Saudis. But if not them, who else?
This is an opportunity and I think, a direct result of President Trump’s speech, important enough to make it his first foreign visit, to the Middle East this year. It was a courageous challenge and if you watch the member states, you can see his words fell on deaf ears and to some, it made an impact.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=tE3LY8399yc
Iran with it’s diabolical tentacles is surrounding Israel – I suspect the young Saudi leadership knows it must modernize and embrace a more moderate path with our president and other partners for peace, or risk being squashed by the region’s thugs:
“Iran is present in Gaza by virtue of its influence (or control) over Hamas. Gaza is on Israel’s south-western border. It has a strong presence in Syria, which is on Israel’s northeastern border. The western part of Israel’s northern border is Lebanon, which is controlled by another Iranian proxy, Hezbollah. If Iran is able to establish a presence in the Jordan Valley (Israel’s eastern border) by virtue of its influence over the new soon-to-be-controlled-by-Hamas unity government, then Israel will be virtually surrounded by hostile forces. On Israel’s southern border lies the Sinai peninsula. Though the Sinai is formally Egypt’s, practically, it is controlled by ISIS. That’s why Mr. Netanyahu warned, “If we are not here, Iran and ‘Hamastan’ will be here.”
Thanks, FSC. There is no indication at all that Iran will back off without significant pressure. Anyone who thinks that resisting them is not important does not realize the consequences of their ultimate dominance. Never mind Israel, it will be devastating to that part of the world and ultimately to us.
I don’t know. If the Arabs and Persians can’t reject their nut job religious leaders then tens of millions of them, hundreds of millions even, are going to die prematurely. They are on a collision course as a religion with the modern world. It will be a tough road, but in their favor they at least know it.
Once upon a time there was a king. The king became wealthy and powerful by riding a Tiger. One morning he woke up and realized there was no safe way to dismount.
The reaction of Islamists to a cessation of this and to other moderating policies would not be positive. Although across the Red Sea from Saudi Arabia, the assassination of Anwar Sadat by the Muslim Brotherhood for departing from the radical line vis-a-vis Israel is illustrative.
Excellent example, Fritz. I suspect he knows the danger. Yet he persists. Naive?
I have more reason to pray – and hope, SQ…I know I’m the odd one out, but…I guess if the Prince is naive, I am, too.
Certainly there is cause for some hope here. That being said, I fear that Wahhabism is simply too much a part of the culture for there to ever bring about much actual progress. When Christians are allowed to build churches in Saudi Arabia, the same as they are allowed to build mosques in the West, then I will believe that real change has occurred.
Having lived in Saudi for 2 years I can second this. The Western veneer of the Saudi Royals is a thin coating on a thick layer of unbelievable ignorance and xenophobia that is the average Saudi. If the Wahhabi clerics call on the masses, it will not be pretty.
The two “they”s each represent a different “constituency”. The former, all in the ME. The later, only the upper echelon of ME leadership. Because of that distinction, the deadliest of collisions is likely.
Only if they abandon Islam. Which is impossible, so no.
It was a reference to the current fervor to pull down the statues of Washington, Jefferson, Lincoln and all those foundational characters who just are not politically correct enough for today’s SJWs.
I suspect there will be no statues in Saudi Arabia.
Robert Fisk’s alternative voice:
http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-saudi-arabia-iran-iraq-kurdish-population-shia-muslims-a7742276.html
Expecting the Saudis to lead anybody into modernity seems quixotic.
A blast from the past. I remember ol Robert predicting the Iraqi defense of Baghdad would be like Stalingrad….
Excellent point, Jean, about the churches. That action would send a powerful message.
So let me ask this question, given that most of you are understandably skeptical about the Saudis being able to effectively lead the Middle East: is there anything to be done about Iran? Are there any steps at all that we can take to stop their grabbing power in that part of the world? Or should we simply say there’s nothing we can do, and it will be what it will be? I’m not asking cynically; I truly want to know if there’s anything to be done to stop Iran, and if there’s any other country we can support to stop them.
Saudi Arabia will not become Westernized but they are aligning with Israel and the US because they rightly fear Iran. Iran has designs to dominate the ME and could possibly become an existential threat to both Israel and Saudi Arabia, especially if they successfully obtain deliverable nukes. The Saudis are no fools and are well aware of the risks to their family and country if that should happen. But they can’t and won’t suddenly abandon Wahhabism and certainly not Islam as that has been, is and will be the actual basis of their power in Saudia Arabia. They will moderate their rhetoric though in order to curry favor with the US and probably will reign in some of the worst excesses of their Wahabist missionary troops in an effort to slide under the radar here. So, no, I don’t think real modernization is in the cards but look for a thaw with the western powers in order to stymie Iran’s hegemonic plans. There will be some ‘window dressing’ developments such as letting women drive and such things. Now really, is that a huge development? It is of much less importance than how it is portrayed in our media. If other, more significant liberties are granted to women as well as men, that would actually be something to make me believe they are serious about bringing their country into the Modern Era. Still the thaw with the US and Israel is a positive development just not the whole nine yards. And it will be temporary but then all such things are temporary.
This is, I think, a realistic take on the situation as I understand it. Each of your points make sense given all the complicated relationships (social, political, cultural and religious). I expect that they will try to effect some moderation to Wahhabism, but a full blown change would be next to impossible for many reasons. But we sure could use them as a strong ally against Iran. Thanks, Okie.
Zafar, the link isn’t operational; I tried it earlier, too. Would you mind sharing the gist of what it said?
How does one separate the church from the state, while maintaining the legitimacy of the state? Tricky.
He vents a bunch but it boils down to:
“Even for those used to the insanity of Arab leadership – not to mention those Westerners who have still to grasp that the US President is himself completely off his rocker – the Arab-Muslim (Sunni) summit in Saudi Arabia is almost beyond comprehension. From Pakistan and Jordan and Turkey and Egypt and Morocco and 42 other minareted capitals, they are to come so that the effete and ambitious Saudis can lead their Islamic crusade against “terrorism” and Shiism. The fact that most of the Middle East’s “terrorism” – Isis and al-Qaeda, aka the Nusrah Front – have their fountainhead in the very nation to which Trump is travelling, must and will be ignored. Never before in Middle Eastern history has such a “kumidia alakhta” – quite literally “comedy of errors” in Arabic – been staged.”
///
I’m accessing it via iPhone, perhaps I pasted a mobile only link format?
But I think Fisk has an arguable point: going to Saudi to talk about Iranians sponsoring terrorism is Kafkaesque.
Letting women drive is a big deal, because it is the first step towards their freedom, and it will progressively [!] transform Saudi society.
The same sort of thing happened in Iran when the Islamic Revolution paradoxically (and perhaps unintentionally) made it possible for more Iranian women to leave their homes and enter the world of work.