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Play Your Cards Right, Kid, and Someday This Gigantic Pile of Sand Can Be All Yours
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There’s just been a major shakeup at the top of the Saudi political structure. King Salman appointed his son, Prince Mohammed bin Salman, as the new crown prince. The new crown prince will replace Prince Mohammed bin Nayef, the king’s nephew. The new crown prince is now also deputy prime minister and will continue in his role as defence minister.
Okay, so why does this matter? Well, King Salman is 81 and not super-healthy. His father was Ibn Saud, who founded Saudi Arabia in 1932. After he died, the succession went through Ibn Saud’s sons, brother to brother. That makes for old kings. Prince Mohammed bin Salman is 31, so if and when he moves up, not only will it be a major generational shift, but if he’s sitting on the throne for several decades, that could mean a long period of stability.
It’s also part of the shift in how the kingdom will be governed. Before King Salman, decision making was laborious. There are lots of Saudi princes, and many of them were consulted, behind closed doors, before decisions were made, the goal being to build a consensus before bold actions.
That’s all changed in the last few years, the agent of change being Prince Mohammed bin Salman. He’s swept aside all the layers of decision making to implement dramatic changes. They haven’t all been good, he’s the one who got the kingdom into the civil war in Yemen, but he’s pushing back on the religious establishment, and pursuing economic reforms. That’s made him popular in his country, especially among the young.
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Published in General
There is a double whammy that can cause instability.
Under the old system, if you were a member of the royal family, you had a shot at becoming king. You just had to stay healthy into your 80s and perhaps be notably healthier than the other octogenarians when the vacancy arose.
In the interim, you had to keep your nose reasonably clean and you could expect advancement through the ranks.
By picking a youngster, the king has disenfranchised a large group. By picking his own son he has made it worse. The motivation for assassinations and coups is greatly increased.
Or a giant signal for instability as the Royals plot to depose the youngster. This is uncharted territory for the Saudi’s.
Chapter 2 has yet to be written. It can go one of several ways.
MbS is supposed to be a reformer, but it is a top-down reform and not organic. Plus he is rash. Project 2030 is a technocratic dream of economic reform. But the political system is to remain in amber with absolute power within the monarch.
Furthermore, family members like MbN, who was interior minister for a long time, have been pushed out not only from government but from line of succession. We all know what interior ministers in a place like KSA do — torture, plots, assassinations. So he knows how to do bad stuff effectively.
It is unlikely to end well for MbS. Rather like 1905 Russia.