Breaking: CBO Scores Obamacare Replacement Bill

 

The GOP House narrowly passed their Obamacare “repeal and replace” bill on May 4. Wanting to rush the vote, the American Health Care Act was brought to the floor without the usual scoring by the Congressional Budget Office. On Wednesday afternoon, the CBO scoring was finally released.

You can read the whole document here, but below are the key points:

  • Over the 2017-2026 period, AHCA would reduce the deficit by $119 billion.
  • The largest savings would come from reductions in outlays for Medicaid and from the replacement of Obamacare’s subsidies for nongroup health insurance.
  • In 2018, 14 million more people would be uninsured under AHCA than under current law. This would reach 19 million in 2020 and 23 million in 2026.
  • AHCA would increase “nongroup” premiums by an average of about 20 percent in 2018 and 5 percent in 2019. These premiums will decline beginning in 2020.

What do you think AHCA’s chances are in the Senate?

Published in Healthcare
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There are 22 comments.

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  1. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    I would say AHCA has zero chance, as the Senate is starting from scratch with their own bill.  Who knows what it looks like by the time it comes out of conference.

    • #1
  2. ToryWarWriter Coolidge
    ToryWarWriter
    @ToryWarWriter

    If the senate was smart they would pass it as is and move on to the legislative agenda.  Eat this *bleep* sandwhich hard and done and get it over with.

    Of course they are not smart.

    • #2
  3. Jon Gabriel, Ed. Contributor
    Jon Gabriel, Ed.
    @jon

    After reviewing the CBO financial and nongroup coverage ratings comparing ACA & AHCA (v. 2), my team has produced a graph for all you wonks.

    • #3
  4. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    Put that out on the tweeter, and it could be meme of the day.

    • #4
  5. DocJay Inactive
    DocJay
    @DocJay

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    After reviewing the CBO financial and nongroup coverage ratings comparing ACA & AHCA (v. 2), my team has produced a graph for all you wonks.

    Inevitable.

    The key for me is how to survive the decay financially  and simultaneously ignore the massive suffering around me and be OK with  it.   No easy task.

    • #5
  6. J Inactive
    J
    @CrazyHorse

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    After reviewing the CBO financial and nongroup coverage ratings comparing ACA & AHCA (v. 2), my team has produced a graph for all you wonks.

    Nice work. And I see you went ahead and integrated the interaction variable I always use into your demand-curve:

    Misery.

    • #6
  7. Jon Gabriel, Ed. Contributor
    Jon Gabriel, Ed.
    @jon

    DocJay (View Comment):

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    After reviewing the CBO financial and nongroup coverage ratings comparing ACA & AHCA (v. 2), my team has produced a graph for all you wonks.

    Inevitable.

    The key for me is how to survive the decay financially and simultaneously ignore the massive suffering around me and be OK with it. No easy task.

    I don’t know how you doctors deal with it. Mine retired early because he was so frustrated

    • #7
  8. MLH Inactive
    MLH
    @MLH

    The American Physical Therapy Association has their knickers in a twist. Hmm I could save me some coin by not renewing my membership. . .

    • #8
  9. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    The main part of the AHCA that I think the Senate should keep is the massive reform of Medicaid. Unfortunately, this is the part of the AHCA that the Senate is least likely to keep.

    • #9
  10. Chris Campion Coolidge
    Chris Campion
    @ChrisCampion

    JL (View Comment):

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    After reviewing the CBO financial and nongroup coverage ratings comparing ACA & AHCA (v. 2), my team has produced a graph for all you wonks.

    Nice work. And I see you went ahead and integrated the interaction variable I always use into your demand-curve:

    Misery.

    I’ve chosen to ignore any health care graph that does not feature genitals.

    • #10
  11. blood thirsty neocon Inactive
    blood thirsty neocon
    @bloodthirstyneocon

    Pass it! Then give me my damn tax cut!

    • #11
  12. Quinnie Member
    Quinnie
    @Quinnie

    Why do people lose insurance?  Because they aren’t require to purchase it and opt out as free citizens.  It is not because it is not available to them.  I HATE THE PRESS.    This country is lost.

    • #12
  13. kelsurprise Member
    kelsurprise
    @kelsurprise

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    I don’t know how you doctors deal with it. Mine retired early because he was so frustrated

    I’ve had three doctors do that.  Two more have stopped doing business with insurance altogether.

    That’s five doctors now that I liked and couldn’t keep.

    • #13
  14. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    kelsurprise (View Comment):

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    I don’t know how you doctors deal with it. Mine retired early because he was so frustrated

    I’ve had three doctors do that. Two more have stopped doing business with insurance altogether.

    That’s five doctors now that I liked and couldn’t keep.

    Quite a few other practices are just rolling themselves into larger medical rackets here.  Almost all docs here now are part of Mt. Carmel, Ohio Health, or OSU Medical.  Private practices are closing unless they are so specialized, or run on such thin margins, that they can stay specialized.

    • #14
  15. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    After reviewing the CBO financial and nongroup coverage ratings comparing ACA & AHCA (v. 2), my team has produced a graph for all you wonks.

    • #15
  16. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Judge Mental (View Comment):
    I would say AHCA has zero chance, as the Senate is starting from scratch with their own bill. Who knows what it looks like by the time it comes out of conference.

    For now, you just have the GOP look like it’s waging class war. This should make for great fireworks in the ’18 elections.

    • #16
  17. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    ToryWarWriter (View Comment):
    If the senate was smart they would pass it as is and move on to the legislative agenda. Eat this *bleep* sandwhich hard and done and get it over with.

    Of course they are not smart.

    I think that’s right. I just don’t think there’s any moving on. At best, this is a first step. The GOP should own it as such. They should also start talking about the next step–give evidence that they take this seriously instead of wishing to somehow return to 2008 without passing the legislation to do so!

     

    • #17
  18. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Jon Gabriel, Ed. (View Comment):
    I don’t know how you doctors deal with it. Mine retired early because he was so frustrated

    I took a break for 2 years and ran away overseas.

    To Saudi Arabia.

    • #18
  19. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    skipsul (View Comment):
    Quite a few other practices are just rolling themselves into larger medical rackets here. Almost all docs here now are part of Mt. Carmel, Ohio Health, or OSU Medical. Private practices are closing unless they are so specialized, or run on such thin margins, that they can stay specialized.

    Welcome to McMedicine.

     

    • #19
  20. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    Kozak (View Comment):

    skipsul (View Comment):
    Quite a few other practices are just rolling themselves into larger medical rackets here. Almost all docs here now are part of Mt. Carmel, Ohio Health, or OSU Medical. Private practices are closing unless they are so specialized, or run on such thin margins, that they can stay specialized.

    Welcome to McMedicine.

    This has been the pattern across one industry after another (think banking).  Increasing government control, interference.  And the result is far fewer, much larger players left.  Takes me back to the summer of 2009, to something that Thomas Sowell said when people were screaming Obama was a socialist.

    He said, “the system that Obama is implementing isn’t socialism, it’s fascism”.  Having the industry limited to a few large players working hand in glove with the government is one of the hallmarks.

    • #20
  21. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    Judge Mental (View Comment):
    I would say AHCA has zero chance, as the Senate is starting from scratch with their own bill. Who knows what it looks like by the time it comes out of conference.

    My thoughts exactly.

    $119 billion isn’t chump change but it isn’t that big a savings either.  On a $4 trillion budget that’s about 3%.

    • #21
  22. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    I wonder what would happen in President Trump would demand that the CBO director come to his office and get a private talking-to about the way he’s scoring things.  I wish he would do it just so I could enjoy the irony.

    • #22
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