Emmanuel Macron Vanquishes Marine Le Pen

 

According to early estimates, he is headed for a 31 point win, a landslide, in both the colloquial and technical sense.

Marine did much worse than the polls predicted. They underestimated Macron’s victory by about seven points. As Nate Silver just noted on Twitter, this represents a bigger polling error than Brexit, and a much bigger one than Trump. 

Vive La France.

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  1. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    JcTPatriot (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    I admire that about them.

    That and those gougères. Those are delicious.

    With Gruyère, Comté, or Emmentaler? Enquiring minds want to know.

    Sure.

    • #31
  2. Snirtler Inactive
    Snirtler
    @Snirtler

    JcTPatriot (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    I admire that about them.

    That and those gougères. Those are delicious.

    With Gruyère, Comté, or Emmentaler? Enquiring minds want to know.

    Would have to be Comte–as Gruyere and Emmental are Swiss.

    • #32
  3. Von Snrub Member
    Von Snrub
    @VonSnrub

    I really would like to visit France, but I’m afraid I missed the window. Long live globalism, the expansion of the caliphate.

    • #33
  4. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Snirtler (View Comment):

    JcTPatriot (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    I admire that about them.

    That and those gougères. Those are delicious.

    With Gruyère, Comté, or Emmentaler? Enquiring minds want to know.

    Would have to be Comte–as Gruyere and Emmental are Swiss.

    That’s the kind of question they used to use to weed out spies… Like baseball scores…

    • #34
  5. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Snirtler (View Comment):

    JcTPatriot (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):
    I admire that about them.

    That and those gougères. Those are delicious.

    With Gruyère, Comté, or Emmentaler? Enquiring minds want to know.

    Would have to be Comte–as Gruyere and Emmental are Swiss.

    They have 243 more kinds of cheese, you know.

    • #35
  6. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Valiuth (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):
    Too bad. I was pulling for Le Pen, because I want the status quo upset. I wanted to see France become an independent nation again, and to either bring the refugees to heel, or deport them.

    ISIS wants to upset the status quo too. So does Putin. Just tossing over the cart doesn’t lead to improvement it just leads to chaos.

    Hear, hear.

    • #36
  7. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Jason Turner (View Comment):
    An expected and unremarkable result, I fear Macron represents the status quo and is unlikely to have many answers to France’s many problems it also unlikely that he will be able to unite a country in which a third voted for FN and much of the rest only voted for him because he was not Le Pen I also hear that turnout was terrible so add in the milliions of people so disillusioned with politics they couldn’t be bothered voting, seems like the only thing worth celebrating is the fact that Putin’s candidate has been defeated.

    There’s a lot to worry about, and this doesn’t mean, “Smooth sailing from here on,” not in any way. But given my concerns about the worst case scenario, I’m glad that, at least, has been avoided, and grateful for it.

    • #37
  8. Jason Turner Member
    Jason Turner
    @JasonTurner

    Claire Berlinski, Ed. (View Comment):

    Jason Turner (View Comment):
    An expected and unremarkable result, I fear Macron represents the status quo and is unlikely to have many answers to France’s many problems it also unlikely that he will be able to unite a country in which a third voted for FN and much of the rest only voted for him because he was not Le Pen I also hear that turnout was terrible so add in the milliions of people so disillusioned with politics they couldn’t be bothered voting, seems like the only thing worth celebrating is the fact that Putin’s candidate has been defeated.

    There’s a lot to worry about, and this doesn’t mean, “Smooth sailing from here on,” not in any way. But given my concerns about the worst case scenario, I’m glad that, at least, has been avoided, and grateful for it.

    Would it be unfair to say that given Macron’s relative youth that he has today improved France’s youth employment by at least 1? Seriously I’m glad that Macron’s victory has given you some joy (if that’s the right word to use in this case) given the current state of European politics there probably hasn’t been a lot of it around.

     

    • #38
  9. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Von Snrub (View Comment):
    I really would like to visit France, but I’m afraid I missed the window. Long live globalism, the expansion of the caliphate.

    Actually, just had this discussion with my wife. We need to visit France within the next couple of years.

    While it still resembles France.

    • #39
  10. Manny Member
    Manny
    @Manny

    Michael Minnott (View Comment):
    I cannot escape the feeling that France is whistling past the graveyard. Le Pen may be the wrong answer, but the fact that she can be plausibly presented as a (or the) lesser evil speaks to problems for France that are profound.

    Vive la France?

    If it were just France I would say it’s their own suicidal will.  But this effects all of Europe and actually western civilization itself.  The dissolution – or should I say, deconstruction – of western culture continues.

    • #40
  11. Manny Member
    Manny
    @Manny

    Bill Clinton must be jumping for joy.  Macron at best is a Bill Clinton leftist: totally left on cultural issues, mostly left on international issues, and possibly – only possibly – centrist on economic issues.  At worst he is an Obama like, pajama boy technocrat.

    I bet Obama is going to take credit for pushing him over the top with his endorsement.

    I find this a sad outcome.

    • #41
  12. Manny Member
    Manny
    @Manny

    Jason Turner (View Comment):
    Would it be unfair to say that given Macron’s relative youth that he has today improved France’s youth employment by at least 1?

    Actually he’s married to his mother, so he’s improved the geriatric employment too.  : -P

     

    • #42
  13. Hang On Member
    Hang On
    @HangOn

    Moderator Note:

    Argue the issues please

    Claire Berlinski, Ed. (View Comment):

    Valiuth (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):
    Too bad. I was pulling for Le Pen, because I want the status quo upset. I wanted to see France become an independent nation again, and to either bring the refugees to heel, or deport them.

    ISIS wants to upset the status quo too. So does Putin. Just tossing over the cart doesn’t lead to improvement it just leads to chaos.

    Hear, hear.

    [redacted]

    • #43
  14. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Mr. Hang on, do not be rude or insulting.

    • #44
  15. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Kozak (View Comment):

    Von Snrub (View Comment):
    I really would like to visit France, but I’m afraid I missed the window. Long live globalism, the expansion of the caliphate.

    Actually, just had this discussion with my wife. We need to visit France within the next couple of years.

    While it still resembles France.

    You were just here. It will look the same way next time you visit, except I’m expecting the economy to continue mildly improving, so you may have better Über service …

    • #45
  16. genferei Member
    genferei
    @genferei

    If Macron believes this was his victory in any sense other than he happened to be the one people were voting against the FN for, then he will make the Hollande years look decisive and productive.

    (I’m slightly worried that I’m agreeing with Titus so much on this subject.)

    • #46
  17. Guruforhire Member
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    There are more elections.

    What happens next time around when things don’t get better?

    • #47
  18. Tony Sells Inactive
    Tony Sells
    @TonySells

    Von Snrub (View Comment):
    I really would like to visit France, but I’m afraid I missed the window. Long live globalism, the expansion of the caliphate.

    We went last year for the first time on a day trip from London.  It wasn’t bad at all.  We had one issue with a very aggressive panhandler near the train station, but that was the worst I could say about it.  We couldn’t speak French, but the people were, believe it or not, nice and helpful.   I love history and Paris has a ton of it.  I thoroughly enjoyed it.

    In retrospect, I probably shouldn’t have shouted “our revolution was better than your revolution” multiple times at the Bastille, and wearing my “Back to Back World War Champs” shirt was probably not a great idea, but we had a blast.

    • #48
  19. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Guruforhire (View Comment):
    There are more elections.

    What happens next time around when things don’t get better?

    The French vote for Melenchon? Or however you spell his name. He’s anti EU too and pro Putin so I’m sure he will get bigly praise from our new Internationalist Nationalist Right her in the US.

    Nationalists of the World Unite! You have nothing but your globalist chains to lose!

    • #49
  20. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Hang On (View Comment):

    Claire Berlinski, Ed. (View Comment):

    Valiuth (View Comment):

    Stad (View Comment):
    Too bad. I was pulling for Le Pen, because I want the status quo upset. I wanted to see France become an independent nation again, and to either bring the refugees to heel, or deport them.

    ISIS wants to upset the status quo too. So does Putin. Just tossing over the cart doesn’t lead to improvement it just leads to chaos.

    Hear, hear.

    [redacted]

    Oh… Now I don’t know what was said. It’s okay. I don’t mind.

    • #50
  21. BD1 Member
    BD1
    @

    Claire Berlinski on Twitter describes the leaks of Macron info as “dirty tricks” but pushed the “nepotism scandal plaguing Francois Fillon’s campaign.”  You gotta love journalism.

    • #51
  22. fldore Member
    fldore
    @fldore

    The French are socialists and they voted for one… or the closet one they had.  So I’m not sure this vote really means much of anything other than a continuation of the status quo.

    What I do find odd is the Left’s rush to announce this the end of the nationalist movements.  These extreme right wing fringe groups were usually tiny in numbers and filled with racists.  In a lot of Euro countries, 20 years ago these groups were barely a blip.  But now they are getting filled with people who arent necessarily racist but have legitimate concerns about lousy immigration policies, lousy integration policies, welfare systems that are being strained, cultural clashes, etc….  I’m not sure what Macron is necessarily going to do to make things better.  But I’m not sure all these people who are voicing legitimate concerns and now filling these nationalists groups are all of a sudden going to vanish.  Not unless things get better.

    • #52
  23. BD1 Member
    BD1
    @

    Noah Rothman: “The number who thought media should self-censor re: Macron or nodded at French anti-speech laws is deeply disturbing.”

    Even a Trump-hating open-borders fan knows this was shady.

    • #53
  24. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    BD1 (View Comment):
    Noah Rothman: “The number who thought media should self-censor re: Macron or nodded at French anti-speech laws is deeply disturbing.”

    Even a Trump-hating open-borders fan knows this was shady.

    France’s law for maintaining silence in the period immediately before the election is older than I am, so if it’s shady, it’s been shady for a long time.

    • #54
  25. BD1 Member
    BD1
    @

    Percival (View Comment):

    BD1 (View Comment):
    Noah Rothman: “The number who thought media should self-censor re: Macron or nodded at French anti-speech laws is deeply disturbing.”

    Even a Trump-hating open-borders fan knows this was shady.

    France’s law for maintaining silence in the period immediately before the election is older than I am, so if it’s shady, it’s been shady for a long time.

    Rothman is talking about alleged guardians of journalistic ethics in the US and elsewhere urging that the story not be covered.  As to the law being older than you are, who cares.

    • #55
  26. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    BD1 (View Comment):

    Percival (View Comment):

    BD1 (View Comment):
    Noah Rothman: “The number who thought media should self-censor re: Macron or nodded at French anti-speech laws is deeply disturbing.”

    Even a Trump-hating open-borders fan knows this was shady.

    France’s law for maintaining silence in the period immediately before the election is older than I am, so if it’s shady, it’s been shady for a long time.

    Rothman is talking about alleged guardians of journalistic ethics in the US and elsewhere urging that the story not be covered. As to the law being older than you are, who cares.

    Nobody, but they set it up that way a long time ago. The only reason to protest it is if there were something important in there. If there was something important in there, the hackers would have released it — would have focused attention on it — well before the blackout. Since they didn’t have a smoking gun, they did it this way, and it was too little too late. C’est la vie.

    • #56
  27. Theodoric of Freiberg Member
    Theodoric of Freiberg
    @TheodoricofFreiberg

    Claire Berlinski, Ed. (View Comment):
    It will look the same way next time you visit, except I’m expecting the economy to continue mildly improving

    I hope you are correct.

    • #57
  28. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Tony Sells (View Comment):
    We couldn’t speak French, but the people were, believe it or not, nice and helpful. I

    This has been the biggest change in France in the past decade — far bigger than the ones everyone keeps writing about — and everyone notices it, though few people consider how significant it is. I’ve yet to see a good piece really explaining how this happened, although I did write a very short article about the phenomenon here:

    On returning to France after spending almost a decade in Turkey (and not long before the terrorist attacks of January), I discovered that the French—Parisians, in particular—have become surprisingly polite. I now find myself living in a city in which the following things happen. A kindly Parisienne not only notices that I am mildly lost, but offers to help and insists upon walking with me, well out of her way, to be sure that I am on the right path. A Darty washing machine arrives on my doorstep, exactly on time, presented by deliverymen who seem to live for the privilege of service; without so much as a grumble, they whisk away my old and broken one, too, even though I live on the fourth floor of a building with no elevator. In leaving, they express gratitude with the words, “It is thanks to you, Madame, that we work, which we so much appreciate.” Granted, the waiter at my local café knows me, but usually someone so solicitous of my well-being, so radiantly affable, charges a hundred bucks an hour and proposes to talk about my childhood, not sell me a cup of coffee every now and again.

    So why are the French still widely judged to be rude? I suspect that a well-known cognitive phenomenon is at work: people see what they expect to see. …

    France is no longer rude. In fact, it’s now the opposite.* That’s such a big and unexpected change that I’m sure someone who wanted to write about it seriously, someone who starts with the premise that this is significant; this does represent a massive social and cultural change, and there must be reasons for it, could get a great article (or even a doctoral thesis) out of it.

    People don’t tend to notice or appreciate it when something changes significantly for the better, but this really has, and I think if we understood why, we’d have a better insight into in France.

    Personally, I’m just glad for it and grateful — it makes living here so much more pleasant than it used to be.

    *Paris, strictly speaking. Rural France was never rude. But Paris really was: It earned its awful reputation for rudeness fair and square. I remember it well.

    • #58
  29. Manny Member
    Manny
    @Manny

    Claire Berlinski, Ed. (View Comment):
    France is no longer rude. In fact, it’s now the opposite.* That’s such a big and unexpected change that I’m sure someone who wanted to write about it seriously, someone who starts with the premise that this is significant; this does represent a massive social and cultural change, and there must be reasons for it, could get a great article (or even a doctoral thesis) out of it.

    People don’t tend to notice or appreciate it when something changes significantly for the better, but this really has, and I think if we understood why, we’d have a better insight into in France.

    Personally, I’m just glad for it and grateful — it makes living here so much more pleasant than it used to be.

    *Paris, strictly speaking. Rural France was never rude. But Paris really was: It earned its awful reputation for rudeness fair and square. I remember it well.

    That is good to know.  I will be more kinder to them in the future.  I suspected there was a split between rural France and Paris.  One sees it in literature, but that’s never a solid foundation for truth.

    • #59
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