Emmanuel Macron Vanquishes Marine Le Pen

 

According to early estimates, he is headed for a 31 point win, a landslide, in both the colloquial and technical sense.

Marine did much worse than the polls predicted. They underestimated Macron’s victory by about seven points. As Nate Silver just noted on Twitter, this represents a bigger polling error than Brexit, and a much bigger one than Trump. 

Vive La France.

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  1. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Well, now the majority of the French go back to their sleep.

    • #1
  2. Joseph Eagar Member
    Joseph Eagar
    @JosephEagar

    I feel bad for the French, having those two candidates make the final round.

    • #2
  3. Jules PA Member
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    What does the polling error say about the polls?

    And are these gaps new, or is this standard for polls?

    • #3
  4. BD1 Member
    BD1
    @

    Putin must be terrified now.

    • #4
  5. Susan Quinn Contributor
    Susan Quinn
    @SusanQuinn

    It seems like polling errors abound in the last few years–which makes them meaningless and unhelpful. I may watch them out of curiosity, but that’s about all.

    • #5
  6. Michael Minnott Member
    Michael Minnott
    @MichaelMinnott

    I cannot escape the feeling that France is whistling past the graveyard. Le Pen may be the wrong answer, but the fact that she can be plausibly presented as a (or the) lesser evil speaks to problems for France that are profound.

    Vive la France?

    • #6
  7. Jamie Lockett Inactive
    Jamie Lockett
    @JamieLockett

    The tide of regression is restrained for at least a moment.

    • #7
  8. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    What does the polling error say about the polls?

    They stink.

    • #8
  9. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: As Nate Silver just noted on Twitter, this represents a bigger polling error than Brexit, and a much bigger one than Trump.

    Or the the French were angered by the possibility of election tampering after the Macron leaks. Maybe it had the opposite effect of some predicted.

    • #9
  10. Jamie Lockett Inactive
    Jamie Lockett
    @JamieLockett

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: As Nate Silver just noted on Twitter, this represents a bigger polling error than Brexit, and a much bigger one than Trump.

    Or the the French were angered by the possibility of election tampering after the Macron leaks. Maybe it had the opposite effect of some predicted.

    Or that Le Pen isn’t the leader the French wanted.

    • #10
  11. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):
    It seems like polling errors abound in the last few years–which makes them meaningless and unhelpful. I may watch them out of curiosity, but that’s about all.

    They are poorly conducted and poorly reported. One of the last reports of the polls that I saw was crowing about a 2.5% surge by Marcon. This from a poll with a margin of error of ±3.5%. And they listed the results to one tenth of a percent. Not only was it drivel, it was overly precise drivel.

    • #11
  12. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    Miss Berlinski, I hope the people of France are as excited as you are. I hope they’ll think of vanquishing & think M. Macron a vanquisher. I hope they will not think of this as the end of the epic of vanquishing; I hope they think of it as the beginning, instead, & I hope some political arrangement for reform will come out of the legislative elections. I hope you’ll come back to report about vanquishing in that case, too.

    I hope the vanquishers will not flatter themselves too much–or think of the third or so of the electorate as the vanquished or the need-to-be-vanquished.

     

    • #12
  13. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Too bad.  I was pulling for Le Pen, because I want the status quo upset.  I wanted to see France become an independent nation again, and to either bring the refugees to heel, or deport them.

    • #13
  14. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    BD1 (View Comment):
    Putin must be terrified now.

    Well he did give it the old collage try at the end with the surprise hacking and document release. They even had to throw in fake ones to really stir the pot properly? Could it actually have back fired? Of course given the margin maybe even a real scandal might not have sunk Macron.

    • #14
  15. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Aaron Miller (View Comment):

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: As Nate Silver just noted on Twitter, this represents a bigger polling error than Brexit, and a much bigger one than Trump.

    Or the the French were angered by the possibility of election tampering after the Macron leaks. Maybe it had the opposite effect of some predicted.

    So it turned a solid win into a massive land slide?

    • #15
  16. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Jamie Lockett (View Comment):
    The tide of regression is restrained for at least a moment.

    Yes, all hail the status quo.

    Things have been going so well in Western Europe….

    • #16
  17. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):
    It seems like polling errors abound in the last few years–which makes them meaningless and unhelpful. I may watch them out of curiosity, but that’s about all.

    All polls have always had errors. The biggest problem polls have is that journalists are mathematically illiterate for the most part and don’t seem to under stand how error bars work. So they create false expectations about what the polls are actually scientifically saying.

    • #17
  18. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Stad (View Comment):
    Too bad. I was pulling for Le Pen, because I want the status quo upset. I wanted to see France become an independent nation again, and to either bring the refugees to heel, or deport them.

    ISIS wants to upset the status quo too. So does Putin. Just tossing over the cart doesn’t lead to improvement it just leads to chaos.

    • #18
  19. Jules PA Member
    Jules PA
    @JulesPA

    Percival (View Comment):

    Jules PA (View Comment):
    What does the polling error say about the polls?

    They stink.

    but what is the reason for their foul odor?

    • #19
  20. Valiuth Inactive
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Percival (View Comment):

    Susan Quinn (View Comment):
    It seems like polling errors abound in the last few years–which makes them meaningless and unhelpful. I may watch them out of curiosity, but that’s about all.

    They are poorly conducted and poorly reported. One of the last reports of the polls that I saw was crowing about a 2.5% surge by Marcon. This from a poll with a margin of error of ±3.5%. And they listed the results to one tenth of a percent. Not only was it drivel, it was overly precise drivel.

    Ha! Overly precise drivel… I like that. I think pollsters should report what they find. Your numbers go up by 2.5% then say that. But, if as you point out the error is larger than the increase be sure to point out that this change isn’t statistically significant compared to the last measurement. What should be noted is that polls had Macro from the onset up by about 20%, yet there was a lot of hay made about Le Pen’s chances. This though was done largely in part to over compensate for the fact that with Brexit and Trump people made a much bigger deal out of far closer data. Never say never, but given that polling the likely hood of her wining were very low.

    • #20
  21. Dave Sussman Contributor
    Dave Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Hillary to announce Le Pen lost because Sexism. Amirite?

    Waiting…

    Waiting…

    • #21
  22. Jason Turner Member
    Jason Turner
    @JasonTurner

    An expected and unremarkable result, I fear Macron represents the status quo and is unlikely to have many answers to France’s many problems it also unlikely that he will be able to unite a country in which a third voted for FN and much of the rest only voted for him because he was not Le Pen I also hear that turnout was terrible so add in the milliions of people so disillusioned with politics they couldn’t be bothered voting, seems like the only thing worth celebrating is the fact that Putin’s candidate has been defeated.

    • #22
  23. DrewInWisconsin Member
    DrewInWisconsin
    @DrewInWisconsin

    Is anyone else annoyed by the Washington Post headline: “France Rejects Le Pen and her Right-Wing Populist Tide!”

    In an alternate universe, the Washington Post headline last November was “US Rejects Hillary Clinton and her Left-Wing SJW Horde!”

     

    • #23
  24. BD1 Member
    BD1
    @

    Macron payer ses impots ou non?

    • #24
  25. ParisParamus Member
    ParisParamus
    @ParisParamus

    Alors, je suis content d’apprendre qu’ils vont “reupholster” les chaises à bord le paquebot Titanique.

    • #25
  26. Douglas Inactive
    Douglas
    @Douglas

    Michael Minnott (View Comment):
    I cannot escape the feeling that France is whistling past the graveyard. Le Pen may be the wrong answer, but the fact that she can be plausibly presented as a (or the) lesser evil speaks to problems for France that are profound.

    Vive la France?

    France is done. After the Bataclan and daily reminders that Paris is now a third world squatter’s camp, they STILL voted for the guy that will turn the country over to Berlin and Brussels.

    • #26
  27. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Titus Techera (View Comment):
    Miss Berlinski, I hope the people of France are as excited as you are. I hope they’ll think of vanquishing & think M. Macron a vanquisher. I hope they will not think of this as the end of the epic of vanquishing; I hope they think of it as the beginning, instead, & I hope some political arrangement for reform will come out of the legislative elections. I hope you’ll come back to report about vanquishing in that case, too.

    I hope the vanquishers will not flatter themselves too much–or think of the third or so of the electorate as the vanquished or the need-to-be-vanquished.

    When the French feel truly threatened and their backs are to the wall, they can be the most determined, devious, underhanded weasels on the planet.

    I admire that about them.

    That and those gougères. Those are delicious.

    • #27
  28. JcTPatriot Inactive
    JcTPatriot
    @JcTPatriot

    Percival (View Comment):
    I admire that about them.

    That and those gougères. Those are delicious.

    With Gruyère, Comté, or Emmentaler? Enquiring minds want to know.

    • #28
  29. Richard Easton Coolidge
    Richard Easton
    @RichardEaston

    Claire thinks that Islam is not a problem.  This almost certainly guarantees that she will find out if she is right.  The terrorist problem likely will be non-linear with the % of the population that is from the ROP.  If the percentage doubles from the current 5-7%, my estimate is that the number of terrorist incidents will triple.  Goodbye France.  Apres now, the deluge.

    • #29
  30. JcTPatriot Inactive
    JcTPatriot
    @JcTPatriot

    Richard Easton (View Comment):
    Claire thinks that Islam is not a problem. This almost certainly guarantees that she will find out if she is right. The terrorist problem likely will be non-linear with the % of the population that is from the ROP. If the percentage doubles from the current 5-7%, my estimate is that the number of terrorist incidents will triple. Goodbye France. Apres now, the deluge.

    Richard, I honestly fear for her life now. An outspoken American female would not be popular with the female-oppressing Islamic System. She could easily become a target of those monsters.

    • #30

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