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A (Partial) Solution to North Korea
The US should be dropping care packages all over North Korea, but especially in and near population centers: Food. Information sheets. Windup radios. And small-caliber firearms.
The battle for hearts and minds starts with stomachs, especially within a starving nation. It continues with information (printed and over the air). And a citizenry that might have small arms, is a citizenry that may well be able to effectively distract the regime. By doing nothing more than dropping nice things for people, we can drive the government crazy.
The Norks take their internal situation for granted. The US can change the entire calculus if there are hundreds of thousands or millions of citizens who might start to see the United States as a potential salvation, and who have the capability to defend themselves in extremis. Even if citizens never do use a firearm in self defense, the prospect that they might would threaten the entire foundation of the tyranny.
The packages should come in all shapes and sizes. Drop ammo here, guns there, empty boxes elsewhere. Candy bars in nice shiny packages. Toys for children. Keep it random and hard to predict. Make the regime entirely unsure of who might have received what. The overall cost of such a program would be very low, indeed – especially compared to war. It would lead to internal paroxysms as the military and police would go crazy chasing their tails.
Indeed, the US could execute this strategy by defining an “average” package, and paying private operators a flat “per package” fee. A million packages at $100 or $200 apiece … it could be amazing how quickly this would be done. I think the delivery service would start with UAVs, and then as the Norks run out of anti-aircraft capabilities, you could do it with any of a number of smaller cargo aircraft.
Might this not be a great “next step” for an out-of-the-box Trump administration?
Published in Foreign Policy
I’m sure the NorKs will react well to US bombers flying “all over North Korea”.
If the Norks will start a war because we are feeding their people, then we have the right of it.
It’s not like we haven’t had “the right of it” for 67 years.
Then you have those revolvers. BTW, why revolvers rather than pistols in whatever caliber the NorK Army uses?
We should drop a wide range of small caliber, limited capacity firearms.
Deliver goods with drones. Many are hard to hit, and if shot down, who cares?
Pistols would work best as weapons to be dropped, although even arms like the AK-47 would pose relatively little risk to US and South Korean forces. You do not win wars with rifles. Even in Vietnam the North won using tank brigades.
Seawriter
Really interesting idea. On the surface, I love it. However…
In general, ignoring the borders of a sovereign nation and actively participating in the overthrow of it’s government is, shall we say, cheeky. But this case may be an exception. The combination of three things – nukes, ballistic missiles, and a dictator who appears to be insane – that combination might change our thought process a bit.
Still, I think we clearly should not do this until we are ready for war and have our assets in place. And doing this without the approval of China would be very risky. Not necessarily wrong, but VERY risky.
It will be very interesting to see how the Kim Jong Il regime ends…
We have nowhere near the required capacity. Consider the Berlin Airlift involving many thousands of tons per day. We could probably get a couple of tons per day with existing UAVs.
This is not the Berlin Airlift. We have no obligation to supply the entire population of North Korea. Only enough to make the rest restive. A few tons a day would be a good start. Plus these do not have to be military drones. It can be subcontracted. Maybe Amazon wants a field test of their delivery system – under extreme conditions.
Seawriter
We have had them in place for a long time. Our artillery have had their batteries dialed in for decades.
China is not our friend here. They use the Norks as proxies.
China is not our friend. But they a formidable enemy. And we should consider that before stirring up this beehive.
North Korea, we could destroy in 2 weeks if we really wanted to. If China gets involved, that changes everything. I don’t think we should provoke North Korea without China’s approval, unless we are ready for war with China.
They may not defend North Korea – hard to say. But they might.
Right on. Delivery is not expensive, and the vehicles are expendable.
This is SO much cheaper than the military options under consideration. And if we basically offer a standing compensation for people who delivery packages, then the government can harness the power of a creative and energetic market.
Wanted: Delivery of Goodies to North Korea – must be at least 20 miles inland. Payment $300 per goody package that includes any 4 of the following 6 items:
With variations.
It might well be the equivalent of letting a thousand flowers bloom, with the regime and willing citizens in local communities identifying those who would violate the orders to turn them in or face death. People don’t take risks when they are already on the edge of starvation and can be denied even a little cabbage for literally any thing. We’d have to drop so much everyone would have access to several packages, one to turn in one to keep. But then who knows anything about that place. I know nothing beyond what the press says and they know nothing and “Escape from Camp 14” which was the most horrifying thing I’ve ever read.
I don’t think dropping care packages allows the Chinese government to justify, to its populace, why they should take the economic hit of going to war.
It has to be publicized properly, but I still think this a much better halfway step short of a shooting war. And we should not fool ourselves: if we do not do something dramatic, the Norks will end up with ballistic missiles that can hit the US Mainland. Do we doubt they would use that leverage?
I have edited the OP accordingly. You are right, of course: weaponry for citizen self-defense can come in many forms.
I think we should include fishing tackle and hunting rifles in the packages. After all, feed a man a fish and you have fed him for a day. Give a man fishing gear and hunting rifles and you feed him forever.
Seawriter
Excellent idea. And fitting for conservative principles. We successfully did this already (see WWII France).
Do you think there is food available “on the hoof” in North Korea? I’d wager they have made all edible fauna extinct.
You are talking about something that would take a year or so to put in place.
I still like Michael Corleone’s solution to Sollozo and McCluskey better.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kSQqv2UuvC0
I agree that it would take more than a year as a Pentagon endeavour.
But there are better ways! There are groups in South Korea that have tried versions of this in the past. If we green lighted them, they could start on very short notice.
The short timelines would work if we simply offered compensation on a “success fee” basis. That would free up all the potential delivery companies to scramble. I can easily see Israeli entrepreneurs jumping all over it, for example.
The West has no shortage of logistics companies who would be delighted to do this sort of thing.
I don’t think the Chinese government needs to justify anything to it’s populace. I’m not sure how many of the wars America has engaged in in the past 50 years would enjoy popular support here either. If we piss off the Chinese leadership enough, we should expect some form of retaliation.
“And we should not fool ourselves: if we do not do something dramatic, the Norks will end up with ballistic missiles that can hit the US Mainland.”
I absolutely agree with this statement – I think you are exactly, and obviously, correct.
Incidentally, I think I also agree with most of your other points on this thread, even though I’m playing devil’s advocate. But again, North Korean leadership is insane. China’s leadership is unpredictable. We’re sailing into some very dangerous waters, here. As soon as the first ham sandwich parachutes into a prison camp, it’s just hard to say where all this will lead.
At the end of the day, though, I think it’s clear where the North Korea situation is going. If we continue to do nothing, we will most likely get hit hard at some point. Probably on our mainland. A lot of Americans will die. If we do something (your suggestion or something like it), then perhaps outright war can be avoided. Perhaps.
But that perhaps may be better than the near certainty of catastrophe if nothing happens soon.
I often hear that “America is not the world’s policeman.” I’m not sure I agree. Regardless, if we could somehow change the North Korean government to something less malignant, that would be a big favor to the rest of the world. I just think that will be extremely difficult long term. The ham sandwiches will just be the beginning. It’s just hard to say where all this will lead.
All governments, even North Korea’s, need to justify their actions to their populace. It’s not the same as in a free country, of course. Authoritarian and totalitarian governments have ways of controlling the flow of information (deceiving the people) and they have methods of compulsion that are not available in free countries. But they don’t go to war without taking the opinion of the populace into account.
It is amazing what you will shoot if you are hungry. Birds, mammals not normally thought of as game animals, and party members. (Shooting game is not the only way to get food using a hunting rifle.) But if we do provide firearms, we are providing them for hunting. It is amazing how many people in the US survived on squirrels and such back during the Great Depression.
Seawriter
Here are several other items that should be considered if there were to be these drops
Maybe, but the insurance costs will keep many away. Unless there was a good drone/unmanned option there are few pilots who will willingly risk getting shot down to deliver goods.
The big problem is the regime. A lot of PKR citizens know things are better in the South. There is a big black market there, so much so it is rumored that the reason why PKR border guard units regularly rotate through postings along the Chinese border is because they want to insure everyone gets a cut (and no one gets angry about missing out). The leadership ranks are profiting from the black market and don’t see regime change as something they will survive.
I also doubt anyone can get enough small arms into North Korea to give the citizens a chance. Unless the army decides they have had enough, a revolution’s chances seem slim.
I like the idea–however, we’d want to keep a few things in mind. First, unlike other nations, North Korea (from what I understand) people get absolutely no information about the West or specially the US. They have been completely brainwashed and think we are the devil. My guess is that Kim Jung Un would take a few steps: say the food is poisoned; say people will be arrested or killed for accepting this stuff from the U.S.; and other threats. Eventually those who risk indulging will realize it’s not true, and the word may spread. But I expect Un would elevate the threats and it would be a slow process.
I’m not informed, but are you certain that “a lot of PKR citizens” know things are better in the South? Do they know how much better? Are a lot of citizens able to take advantage of the black market, or is that limited mostly to the leadership and the guards?
Currently South Korea uses balloons, I suppose the effort could be expanded. So far though it merely seems to piss off the North but show little other return.
Random items:
The old propaganda stand by:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=n0szGP_jpMg
Balloons are cheap. But I don’t know if they travel far enough inland. Balloon launched from a ship off shore, with a gps timer to deflate over NorkLand… inexpensive and scaleable.
And really, you want to blanket the country – and include firearms and other stuff that will make the regime crazy. With enough whipped-up paranoia, you might even inspire a coup.
I wouldn’t expect the return to be visible. That doesn’t mean this work doesn’t have an effect.