Forecasting the possible economic impact of a sweeping economic plan is tough. So many moving parts. It’s even tougher if you aren’t quite sure what those parts are. Which brings us to Trump-onomics. Goldman Sachs has taken its best shot, given the above caveats.  This is its central policy case:

We expect scaled-down versions of the tax reform and infrastructure policies to be enacted. We do not anticipate significant changes on immigration policy, but incremental restrictions seem likely. Mr. Trump’s monetary policy views are still unclear, but slightly more hawkish appointments appear likely at this stage. Trade policy is the greatest unknown, but we expect that Mr. Trump would follow through on at least some of the trade policies he has outlined.

OK, given that, how might the US economy perform? Again, Team Goldman, using the Fed’s US marco model:

And as GS notes: “It is important to note that our analysis is subject to considerable uncertainty.”

So definitely a bit of  ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ in this forecast. But such as it is, the bank sees modestly better growth and lower unemployment near term than its baseline econ case, but watch out for trade and the Fed. One thing I noticed is that the GDP chart on the left still shows a 2%-ish economy. No sign of hypergrowth of 4% or higher. Not even 3%.

Policy is hard! And big changes to a nation’s potential growth rate take awhile. Indeed, GS adds that Trump’s tax reform and infrastructure spending “could have positive longer-run supply side effects.”