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Keep Hope Alive? Henry Olsen Says It Still Aint’ Over
Below, Bill Whalen calls the race for Hillary. If, like me, at this hour you’re attempting to tamp down your final hopes, stick with Bill’s prediction. But if instead you’re looking for ways to keep your hopes alive, Henry Olsen has just obliged, posting a piece over at National Review suggesting that the race is very close–and that Trump might still just pull it off.
The critical paragraph:
Published in General
Most national polls suggest that the race is over, with Clinton headed to a firm win. I disagree. I think it is likelier that she will win, but she will do so very narrowly in both the Electoral College and in the popular vote. It won’t take much improvement over my final projections for Trump to pull this out narrowly, and I think it is likelier that he wins than that Clinton wins by 3 or more.
If it aint’ over, it ain’t over.
Nate Silver predicted the election in 2012 with 100% accuracy. He has a Hillary victory at a 70% likelihood.
But I think a terrible Hillary presidency will be better for the Republican and conservative movement than a terrible Trump presidency. Trade wars historically don’t lead to good outcomes.
We need to cut bait with this guy asap following his likely loss. We’ve got a lot of rebuilding to do….
When was this post put up? As of Election Day Eve, the only real question is whether Trump will win by a little or a lot. I’ve been told Clinton has already thrown in the towel on FL, OH and NC. I’ve also been told that CO and MI will go Trump.
Why is it that I get better info and data from Twitter than people supposedly in the know? This is just weird.
I do not doubt that a Hillary presidency will be good for the Republican Party. The real question is whether it will be good for the American people.
She takes over a fully weaponized IRS, FBI, DOJ, etc. She gets to nominate the balance of the Supreme Court. Take notice of what Obama did to the Tea Party and understand: there will be no Republican rebuild. She will make sure of that.
Nate Silver: “The [2014 Midterm] Polls Were Skewed Towards Democrats.”
Actually, this year the polls ARE skewed. Trump landslide. If the media wasn’t so disgusting, this would be obvious.
My hope is with a Clinton win, things are so bad, the democrats get the blame. Not holding my breath
Right, but remember that systemic polling misses can happen in either direction. Sure, they could be off by 3% in favor of Trump and he squeaks out a win. It’s equally likely that are off 3% in favor of Clinton, leaving her with a commanding win.
So Olsen agrees that she will win, but by a smaller margin than predicted. Sounds like there is no there, there.
We’ve gone back and forth on this, but I don’t think either Hillary or Trump will be good for the American people. I’d rather not have the conservative movement associated with the nightmare that unfolds the next 4 years.