Can the GOP Survive a Trump Win?

 

donald-trumpThe New York Times tries (unsuccessfully) to hide their gloating over what they believe to be an upcoming loss by Donald Trump in the upcoming Presidential election, and asks the question, “Can the GOP Survive a Trump Loss?” But what if Trump wins? What then for the Republican Party?

I know there are people who’ll say “That’s ridiculous to even consider. There’s no way Trump is going to win this.” and they may be right. The thing is, though, that for over a year now, Trump has been winning the battles he was supposed to lose.

He wasn’t supposed to be the front-runner for the nomination. He was.

He wasn’t supposed to make it through the debates. He did.

He wasn’t supposed to be winner on Super Tuesday. He was.

He wasn’t supposed to be the nominee for the Republican Party. He is.

With odds like that, do we really want to go into the inauguration without a plan to deal with a Trump Presidency?

I can understand why there are people inside the conservative movement who get indigestion at the thought of a Trump presidency, because there is very little of traditional conservatism inside of Trump’s political philosophy. The presidency of Ronald Reagan was propped up on a three-legged stool of a strong military presence, fiscal conservatism, and moral values, so much so that Mitt Romney literally carried a three-legged stool with him on the campaign trail in an attempt to tie his policies with Reagan’s policies.

But which one of those three legs does Donald Trump support? That’s right, none of the above.

And that’s why we have #NeverTrump.

To be honest, I have no idea what the Republican Party under a Trump administration will look like. The closest analogies I can make are what happened the last two times the United States elected a populist President, when Andrew Jackson and Theodore Roosevelt were elected. Both Presidents ushered in sweeping changes to how this country was run, but at a cost to the future prospects of their respective parties.

So I leave it to you, the “smartest, most interesting, most civil” people on the Internet: What will the Republican Party look like under President Trump? Let the world know in the comments below.

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There are 43 comments.

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  1. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    We need to keep him accountable to his Gettysburg speech. Even more important: we need to establish our Governors as the real power base of the conservative movement.

    • #1
  2. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    Kevin Creighton: With odds like that, do we really want to go into the inauguration without a plan to deal with a Trump Presidency?

    Does bourbon count as a plan?

    • #2
  3. Kevin Creighton Contributor
    Kevin Creighton
    @KevinCreighton

    The King Prawn:

    Kevin Creighton: With odds like that, do we really want to go into the inauguration without a plan to deal with a Trump Presidency?

    Does bourbon count as a plan?

    • #3
  4. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    More seriously, Trump has shown little to no ability during the election to take advice. The only thing he seems to respond to is agreement and stroking his ego. I’ve pushed my “I Believe” button until it broke, and I still can’t come around on the idea that being elected will change his character. Should he win, I fear we’ll see 4 years of congressional Republicans being the opposition party to a president in their party. It will be ugly, the democrats will gloat, and the best we can really hope for is that nothing tremendously damaging occurs. If I were to concoct a fantasy it would be for Trump to wander around the earth playing statesman (attending funerals & mall ribbon cuttings) while he outsources the actual work of the office to Pence and the cabinet. It would be government by committee & professionals, but that’s still a far cry better than government by a mad man.

    • #4
  5. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    There are nontrivial number of open trump supporters who worked for Reagan too.  Like Buchanon and Schafley.  Maybe the problem is that you keep focusing on the legs of the stool and forgot the seat.

    Now you just have some pegs on the floor.

    • #5
  6. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    The King Prawn: If I were to concoct a fantasy it would be for Trump to wander around the earth playing statesman (attending funerals & mall ribbon cuttings) while he outsources the actual work of the office to Pence and the cabinet. It would be government by committee & professionals, but that’s still a far cry better than government by a mad man.

    Amen

    • #6
  7. livingthehighlife Inactive
    livingthehighlife
    @livingthehighlife

    Kevin Creighton: To be honest, I have no idea what the Republican Party under a Trump administration will look like.

    I have a terrible record at predictions, but I’ll lay this one out there for consideration:  it won’t look much different than the last 3 years of W. Bush’s last term.

    Let’s be honest, the GOP hasn’t really found a spending bill it didn’t like, except one initiated by the Democrats.  (The opposite is also true.)  Because Trump has no limited government tendencies, I believe we’ll see 4 years of spending that would only be slightly less than if Hillary was elected.

    The GOP as a whole is no longer a vehicle for smaller, limited government; they are merely a vehicle of slightly smaller government than the Democrats.

    • #7
  8. Randy Weivoda Moderator
    Randy Weivoda
    @RandyWeivoda

    The King Prawn: If I were to concoct a fantasy it would be for Trump to wander around the earth playing statesman (attending funerals & mall ribbon cuttings) …

    Might I add, judging beauty contests?

    • #8
  9. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    [in the voice of Princess Leia] Help us Paul Ryan, you’re our only hope.

    • #9
  10. lowtech redneck Coolidge
    lowtech redneck
    @lowtech redneck

    I think its largely the same as if he loses; there will be a cold war within the Republican party between three broad, mutually hostile factions.  The only difference would be that the Trump wing would be in an empowered rather than weakened position.  This is unlikely to last very long.

    I don’t see a viable, long-term third-party coming about regardless of the outcome; there is too much bad blood and too many opposing goals for any new party to attract more than one faction in large numbers.  Any faction that dominates a hypothetical new party is likely to lose a lot of influence within the Republican party in the short run.

     

    • #10
  11. Front Seat Cat Member
    Front Seat Cat
    @FrontSeatCat

    Kevin,

    Have you or anyone ever heard of Bev Harris and blackboxvoting.org? She went as far, as a guest on the radio today, to say whether HRC wins or loses, she will win, because of this:

    http://blackboxvoting.org/

     

    • #11
  12. Spiral9399 Inactive
    Spiral9399
    @HeavyWater

    Trump has said that he wants to expand Medicaid, as if Obama had not already done that with Obamacare.  So, I think Trump will work with Chuck Schumer and Nancy Pelosi and a handful of Republican members of Congress to expand Medicaid.

    Trump has called himself “the king of debt,” saying that we can borrow money on the cheap and if interest rates go up simply negotiated a mark down on repaying the principle.

    So, more spending and more debt will be the result of a Trump administration.  It would not be much different from a Hillary Clinton administration.  It’s no wonder that Trump invited Bill and Hillary to his wedding, donated to Hillary’s campaign and praised President Obama’s 2009 economic stimulus plan.

    Conservative Republicans will be in the position they were in with respect to the Nixon administration in the spring of 1974.  We will take a beat down from the Democrats, even though we, the conservative faction within the GOP, had opposed him all along.

    • #12
  13. Paul A. Rahe Member
    Paul A. Rahe
    @PaulARahe

    You are right to raise this question. Trump is less a man of ideas than of impulses, and that has always been true (ask Ivana). If elected, he will be even more full of himself than he is now. He has no experience with the give and take of politics, and it will drive him crazy that when he gives an order to the Republicans in Congress and they do not immediately do his bidding. So he will go after them, and the Republican Party will explode.

    This is not good, but Hillary is apt to be worse. She does have ideas . . . .

    So, if my first priority was the Republican Party, I would vote for Hillary. She would rejuvenate it. If my first priority was the country (which it is), I would vote for Trump as an evil, but the lesser evil.

    As for the Republican Party, it does not deserve our sympathy. Its leaders won a landslide and sat on their hands, too timid to use the power of the purse that the Constitution gives to Congress. They earned contempt; they have received from the voters a full measure of contempt. The latter were so furious at the do-nothing officeholders that they gave the nomination to a demagogue obviously unfit for the office.

    Of course, the other party pulled itself together, saw off an insurgency, and nominated a known criminal for the Presidency. What a year!

    • #13
  14. Freesmith Member
    Freesmith
    @

    Sure it can. No problem.

    The combination of an immigration moratorium and a 15% capital gains tax rate will empower an economic boom that this time includes the middle and lower classes. That boom will also allow interest rates to return to normal, squeezing government  spending everywhere, including on bloated pensions in the states, while encouraging thrift. The people will prosper and government will suffer, as both should.

    The GOP will embargo federal funds to sanctuary cities and certain NGOs, and will withhold state funds from the liberal seminaries known as universities. Emboldened by their president, congressional and state Republicans will use the power of the purse to starve the beast that is killing America, proving to their voters that they mean what they say (and what their publications write). Satisfaction with the GOP will skyrocket among its voters.

    Then, a total regulation moratorium, plus a deficit-induced series of indefinite layoffs among agencies and the reassignment of much of the remaining personnel to new quarters in Middle America (“Quonset Hut City,” Oklahoma), will continue the GOP’s small government agenda.

    Finally, as foreclosure and for lease signs multiply like kudzu in the five counties encircling Washington, President Trump and Speaker Ryan will unite to fight Democratic attacks on Ivanka Trump, who is buying up hundreds of bankrupt restaurants, bars and other K Street properties at distressed prices for a new 36-hole golf course and resort – one open to the public, of course.

    Happy Days!

    • #14
  15. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    If Trump gets elected what would his congress look like? I expect much like the one now maybe one or two less GOP senators, or maybe not. The house much the same as now. Who would be speaker? I expect there would be pressure for change there with Trump taking advice from his coterie of early congressional supporters. Who would Collins, Hunter, and Sessions recommend? Like any other president Trump would have to consider how he would get things done with congress and how he could protect his parties control of congress in 2018. Not too long after his election he would have to begin to think about 2020. Many of the issues Trump talks about will require him working with congress.

    His choice of cabinet and other high political appointees in the federal government might be telling. Trump had a group organized to study and handle the transition. More interesting to me is how he will reform the federal bureaucracy which has become the fifth, sixth or seventh estate.

    Is it even possible regain control of the government from the embedded American Raj?

    How will Trump address the Washington, DC trough which will be passed from the blue pigs to the red pigs?

    • #15
  16. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Kevin Creighton: What will the Republican Party look like under President Trump?

    I expect that most of the party will be on its belly like servile and sycophantic eunuchs waiting to praise and validate whatever whims Trump expresses on any particular day.  The debasement will be uncomfortable to watch for anyone with a shred of self-respect.

    • #16
  17. Spiral9399 Inactive
    Spiral9399
    @HeavyWater

    Paul A. Rahe:As for the Republican Party, it does not deserve our sympathy. Its leaders won a landslide and sat on their hands, too timid to use the power of the purse that the Constitution gives to Congress. They earned contempt; they have received from the voters a full measure of contempt. The latter were so furious at the do-nothing officeholders that they gave the nomination to a demagogue obviously unfit for the office.

    In this case, the GOPe was correct and the inflamed wing of the radio talk show circuit was incorrect.  The GOPe could have played the same game they played in 1995-1996, which is a losing game.  Instead, they wanted to play it smart; they wanted to wait until they had the White House and the US Senate and the US House of Representatives.  No government shutdown needed.

    But to conduct such a strategy required prudence and patience.  The Republican primary voters chose to discard prudence and patience.  The result will be a Democrat victory on November 8th.

    The lesson should be that discarding prudence and patience works to the disadvantage of ones political preferences.

     

    • #17
  18. Sweezle Inactive
    Sweezle
    @Sweezle

    The GOP needs to regroup after the election regardless of who wins.

    • #18
  19. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

     

    Over the last sixty years, the American voters have not granted a third Presidential term to either political party, except in 1988 when voters elected George H.W. Bush essentially as the third term of President Reagan.  2016 was the Republican’s year!  Any Republican other than Trump would have beaten Hillary in a landslide.  The good news is that in the last sixty years the American voters have not granted a fourth Presidential term to any political party.  If Hillary is elected in 2016, she will not be reelected in 2020.

    Conservatism survives and thrives if it spends 4 years in opposition to Hillary Clinton; conservatism dies if it spends 4 years in compliance with Donald Trump.  For the sake of your country and party I urge all conservatives to vote for Evan McMullin.

    • #19
  20. Freesmith Member
    Freesmith
    @

    In addition to legislative and executive actions by the Republican Congress and President Trump there will also be ceremonial actions that will strengthen the GOP after a Trump win. Here are two.

    On January 15th 2018 the sealed FBI archives concerning Martin Luther King will be unsealed and made available to the public, scholars and the media. All of the  documents, pictures and tapes of the only American whose birthday is honored by a US holiday will be uploaded to the internet and made free to anyone who cares to download them. It will be the highpoint of the celebration of Martin Luther King Day.

    Later that year the Kennedy Center for the Performing Arts will host the presentation of Presidential Medals of Freedom to Rush Limbaugh, Ann Coulter and Patrick J. Buchanan for distinguished civilian service to the United States. The gala ceremony will be the last one held at the Kennedy Center, which will be razed later in the year, the rubble trucked away and the grounds salted. The United States government will get out of the “arts” business.

    • #20
  21. Tony Sells Inactive
    Tony Sells
    @TonySells

    Well…with a Trump win, hopefully the Republican Congress will try and pass Paul Ryan’s agenda including entitlement reform and dare him to veto it.

     

     

    • #21
  22. Bob Thompson Member
    Bob Thompson
    @BobThompson

    Spiral9399: The lesson should be that discarding prudence and patience works to the disadvantage of ones political preferences.

    We don’t really know that since the GOPe didn’t take those more dramatic actions (the losing game?) to shut down when they had those opportunities.

    • #22
  23. Muleskinner Member
    Muleskinner
    @Muleskinner

    Tony Sells:Well…with a Trump win, hopefully the Republican Congress will try and pass Paul Ryan’s agenda including entitlement reform and dare him to veto it.

    And they will have to deal with Trump’s agenda. I predict that the consultant class will start to fall all over itself to provide advice to Trump’s administration, and those left out will start working for the prospective candidates for 2020. The Republican Party will have to assess the crossover Democrats and Independent voters and figure out how big or small they want the new tent to be for 2020. All in all, more of the same.

    But hopefully, we’ll all get back to a place where the President and the powers of the executive branch are suitably diminished, and we again have three coequal branches of government, and stronger states.

    • #23
  24. I Walton Member
    I Walton
    @IWalton

    I doubted it could endure a McCain win, but I voted for him.  I doubted it because I expected him to do dumb liberal things and get the Republicans blamed for the failures.  As Bush did for big government conservatism and the Iraq war.  Trump will be easy to overcome even if he’s just weak and ineffectual which is what I’d expect, maybe because of it.  I’m not at all sure we’ll survive a Clinton win.  They are so rotten and exposed they have to shut down freedom to continue the criminal conspiracy, and they will.

    • #24
  25. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    Something like a mad scramble to get close to the new magic man.  Opposition will hide the knives, he will get a six month period to get things moving.

    Pence, Sessions, Giuliani and Gingrich will handle Ryan and McConnell fairly easily.

    The media will fawn and Melania and Ivanka will be on every news site for months.

    Reporters will gush at getting invited to Mar a Lago.

    The Democrats will be fairly quiet for three months.

    I expect the old black leaders will be doing somersaults to get access. Some new black leaders will emerge.

    I hope Trump moves the White House to Florida, disbands the pentagon and distributes it geographically, all civilian agencies to a different state each and the Supreme Court to the Moon.

     

    • #25
  26. Quake Voter Inactive
    Quake Voter
    @QuakeVoter

    Gary Robbins: Over the last sixty years, the American voters have not granted a third Presidential term to either political party, except in 1988 when voters elected George H.W. Bush essentially as the third term of President Reagan. 2016 was the Republican’s year! Any Republican other than Trump would have beaten Hillary in a landslide. The good news is that in the last sixty years the American voters have not granted a fourth Presidential term to any political party. If Hillary is elected in 2016, she will not be reelected in 2020.

    During the past sixty years neither the Chicago Cubs nor the Cleveland Indians have won the World Series; it’s actually a collective 176 years.

    As of 2008, no Senator having served less than four years had been elected President.

    As of 2008, no Senator with the highest ADA/lowest ACU rating in the chamber had ever been elected President.

    The Elias Sports Bureau School of Politics is less predictive than you assume.

    You are certainly right about our squandering this year in heartbreaking fashion.

    • #26
  27. ConservativeFred Member
    ConservativeFred
    @

    Paul A. Rahe: As for the Republican Party, it does not deserve our sympathy. Its leaders won a landslide and sat on their hands, too timid to use the power of the purse that the Constitution gives to Congress. They earned contempt; they have received from the voters a full measure of contempt. The latter were so furious at the do-nothing officeholders that they gave the nomination to a demagogue obviously unfit for the office.

    Dr. Rahe,

    In one (1) paragraph, you have summarized the election of 2015/2016.  Brilliant.

    I didn’t support Trump in the primaries (initially, my state voted late and he had effectively won by that time), but I support him now if only to watch the “surrender caucus” of the Republican Party squirm.

    • #27
  28. EHerring Coolidge
    EHerring
    @EHerring

    I will tolerate most anything he does as long as he rids us of the Clintons once and for all.

    • #28
  29. Trinity Waters Member
    Trinity Waters
    @

    Kevin Creighton: But which one of those three legs does Donald Trump support? That’s right, none of the above.

    You are dead wrong about these legs.  The first two are readily supported by his policy prescriptions and rhetoric.  The last leg takes a bit of analysis, but look at his family and tell me he’s amoral.  And, don’t start quoting media/DNC crap.  Just get over your indigestion and quit expounding on Trump’s supposed failings.

    The GOP doomed itself, and a new party may emerge under Trump.  Good!  I’ve said many times that my allegiance is not to the GOP anymore, and possibly even less to faux conservatism, but rather to my country, for which I was happy to bear arms.

    The GOP imploded by hubris and hearing loss.

    • #29
  30. Wiley Inactive
    Wiley
    @Wiley

    Once Trump is elected (did you notice I did not say if), he will be without a party. Knowing human nature, and the undiluted arrogance of the Republican establishment, they will continue to undermine him. It offers a wonderful opportunity for the Republican party to recast its image and redefine it’s message and become more reformist, but they will not. They will double down and retrench. However, I am hopeful that this selfish nature of humans creates competition by the emergence of a third pole, the two parties (R and D) and a separate movement, not necessarily a party, kind of an American Brexit movement.  The greatly diminished Republican party will be schizophrenic and be both the party of the president and an opposition party to him at the same time. The third pole will join forces with the Tea Party and will dominate politics for a few years… and then the crystal ball goes dim.

    • #30
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