Why Trump’s “Wait and See” Was Brilliant

 

trumpIf you hear someone hyperventilating over Trump’s reply on automatically accepting the election results, tell them to take a breath. First, remember, that 41 percent of people now think things are rigged. And most remember eight years of Democrats claiming that Bush was not in office legitimately, and Gore demanding a recount.

Contrary to received wisdom, Trump was brilliant to say he would wait to see if the election was rigged. Why? First, the media will pick this up, criticize it (which will make Trump supporters feel they are right to be concerned), and carry it into the ether for Mr. Trump … more earned media on his point.

Second and more important, saying he’d “wait and see” about the election outcome was the only answer that fit his entire raison d’être as a candidate: standing up to a corrupt system, uncowed, and fighting for fairness.

Had he said he’d accept any outcome, his supporters would have thought, “He’s effectively told them it is OK to cheat! Now they actually can cheat since he’s effectively conceded in advance and we’re screwed!”

Instead, now they think that this will be a caution to Democrats not to cheat, and if Trump loses, expect him – as his supporters will – to first verify that he actually lost fair and square, that they weren’t cheated – and only then accept defeat.

Anything less and they’d wonder what happened to their champion.

As with Trump’s pattern for the last year, he starts with an extreme statement (garnering earned media), and ends at a reasonable result. All his remark was saying last night, translated into safe, no-earned media speak, was “We’re going to make sure this election is fair.”

It would be a good message for the GOP to echo and support.

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  1. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    You have it exactly right.

    • #1
  2. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    I agree completely.

    • #2
  3. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    James O’Keefe crickets chirping.

    • #3
  4. Spin Inactive
    Spin
    @Spin

    “to first verify that he actually lost fair and square, that they weren’t cheated”

    If you ask me, when Trump loses this election (arggh!), there will be no verification.  The only reason for him to have lost will be because it is rigged.  Because why would anyone not vote for Trump.

    • #4
  5. Mike H Inactive
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    *rolls eyes*

    Only 20 more days of this… only 20 more…

    • #5
  6. Salvatore Padula Inactive
    Salvatore Padula
    @SalvatorePadula

    Heather Higgins: Contrary to received wisdom, Trump was brilliant to say he would wait to see if the election was rigged. Why? First, the media will pick this up, criticize it (which will make Trump supporters feel they are right to be concerned), and carry it into the ether for Mr. Trump … more earned media on his point.

    Earned media was helpful to Trump in the primaries. It hasn’t been in the  general election. Since winning the nomination, Trump’s popularity has been inversely proportional to the degree to which he has dominated the news.

    Trump’s problem is not that his supporters are unenthusiastic. It’s that they are few in number. Three weeks out from the election and trailing by 7+ points Trump needs to make a play for undecided voters. He should have his base locked up.

    If you think complaining about a “rigged” election is going to expand Trump’s appeal by even an iota I’ve a wall to sell you.

    • #6
  7. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    As with Trump’s pattern for the last year, he starts with an extreme statement (garnering earned media),

    That’s certainly true. Our front page this morn:

     

    trump

    Can’t be bad publicity, because they spelled his name right.

    . . . and ends at a reasonable result.

    1 .Which will end up on page A5 at the bottom.

    2. I thought we were sick of politicians who said one thing and then changed their tune in the face of criticism?

    • #7
  8. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Mike H:*rolls eyes*

    Only 20 more days of this… only 20 more…

    I wonder what Trump would have to do to convince Heather that he’s not brilliant?

    • #8
  9. Israel P. Inactive
    Israel P.
    @IsraelP

    Salvatore Padula: Earned media was helpful to Trump in the primaries. It hasn’t been in the general election. Since winning the nomination,

    Only because they thought it would make Hillary’s job easier. Oh yeah, and ratings.

    The thing is, the election day stuff could in theory yet be clean (aside from dead voters, double voters, boxes of ballots etc), but the part of “rigged” that comes from the media is mostly already done, so that will never be fair in this election.

    • #9
  10. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Hair today gone tomorrow. We hardly knew you Chris Cuomo.

    • #10
  11. Mike H Inactive
    Mike H
    @MikeH

    Note:

    Bad faith argument.

    Cato Rand:

    Mike H:*rolls eyes*

    Only 20 more days of this… only 20 more…

    I wonder what Trump would have to do to convince Heather that he’s not brilliant?

    I get the impression burnt toast would look brilliant to Heather if it was running for president and had an (R) next to it.

    • #11
  12. CM Member
    CM
    @CM

    Salvatore Padula: If you think complaining about a “rigged” election is going to expand Trump’s appeal by even an iota I’ve a wall to sell you.

    Trump’s appeal won’t matter at that point. But if the 40% who think the election is rigged see possible evidence of rigging and Paul Ryan et al telling the stupids to be quiet, we’ll see just how much a Hillary win actually “preserves conservatism”. Pretty certain conservatism won’t win with 10% of the vote.

    P.S. how is it the Trump can be impeached on day 1 for words said in private 11 years ago, but Obama can’t be for imprisoning a US citizen over a video wrongly accused if instigating the Libyan riot? Even if it HAD been the spark, freedom of speech still exists. And why can’t Hillary be impeached for compromising national security? Riddle me this – why so much outrage against the orange buffoon likely to lose and none for the harridan?

    • #12
  13. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Someone on the Member Feed posted this earlier this week, but in light of last night’s debate I just reread it when it showed up on Real Clear Politics. Here is Mark Steyn asking the question many others have been asking for months: Why do the media and so many Republicans ignore Clinton’s illegal actions?

    Personally I cannot let go of the entire server-in-her-bathroom fisasco. It should simply disqualify her from running. What does she not understand about the terms “classified” and “top secret”? Does she think those labels are attached to documents frivolously by the military and our intelligence agencies? And why did so many people let this go for so long? Why?

    • #13
  14. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Interestingly, I guess I am just plain argumentative, but the more the press ignores Clinton in their haste to disparage Trump, the more interested I am in why they are ignoring her and the outstanding accusations against her.

    Unanimity in opinion always stirs up my natural skepticism.

    • #14
  15. Trinity Waters Member
    Trinity Waters
    @

    James Lileks:

    As with Trump’s pattern for the last year, he starts with an extreme statement (garnering earned media),

    That’s certainly true. Our front page this morn:

    trump

    Can’t be bad publicity, because they spelled his name right.

    . . . and ends at a reasonable result.

    1 .Which will end up on page A5 at the bottom.

    2. I thought we were sick of politicians who said one thing and then changed their tune in the face of criticism?

    I didn’t get the basis for 2., James.  Of course he plays the media, but I don’t understand if you’re commenting, agreeing or arguing with Heather’s post.

     

    • #15
  16. DocJay Inactive
    DocJay
    @DocJay

    Cheating is expected where I live.  The order of magnitude  of voter fraud is the only question.

    • #16
  17. Damocles Inactive
    Damocles
    @Damocles

    Mike H:*rolls eyes*

    Only 20 more days of this… only 20 more…

    Why are people so weak?  It’s delightful seeing someone fight back against the Clinton machine!

    • #17
  18. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    So we’re still going with the Trump is a secret super genius wizard? Okay…. Now I’m looking for an African river but I can’t recall its name.

    • #18
  19. Eugene Kriegsmann Member
    Eugene Kriegsmann
    @EugeneKriegsmann

    I suppose it might be a brilliant statement if his mannerisms weren’t those of a petulant 8 year old. Also, Trump’s inevitable claims that he has been cheated when he loses or is in a disadvantaged position, especially one that he created for himself, become both predictable and annoying. He gains no support from those who are reasonably skeptical about him and Hillary both. My feeling is that the likely outcome of this behavior is to insure that voter turnout will be historically low as both candidates are so inadequate and his behavior does nothing to attract those with Clinton Fatigue Syndrome.

    • #19
  20. Salvatore Padula Inactive
    Salvatore Padula
    @SalvatorePadula

    CM: P.S. how is it the Trump can be impeached on day 1 for words said in private 11 years ago, but Obama can’t be for imprisoning a US citizen over a video wrongly accused if instigating the Libyan riot? Even if it HAD been the spark, freedom of speech still exists. And why can’t Hillary be impeached for compromising national security?

    I’m sorry. You seem to have me confused with someone else. I’ve never taken the positions referenced above.

    • #20
  21. Israel P. Inactive
    Israel P.
    @IsraelP

    Lots of “sensible people” are saying, “Yes, but these are small numbers that cannot sway an election.”

    J. Christian Adams, formerly of the Justice Dept, says here that the Dems have invested millions in voter fraud. They aren’t doing it without expecting that it can make a difference. Are our people projecting their own stupidity onto them?

    • #21
  22. James Lileks Contributor
    James Lileks
    @jameslileks

    Trinity Waters: I didn’t get the basis for 2., James. Of course he plays the media, but I don’t understand if you’re commenting, agreeing or arguing with Heather’s post.

    Not arguing with Heather per se. It’s just that there seems to be a contradiction between “he says politically incorrect things! That’s why he’s winning!” and “he says politically incorrect things then walks them back! That’s why he’s winning!” Although I suppose it depends on the blurt du jour.

    • #22
  23. Tom Meyer Member
    Tom Meyer
    @tommeyer

    Heather Higgins:Contrary to received wisdom, Trump was brilliant to say he would wait to see if the election was rigged. Why? First, the media will pick this up, criticize it (which will make Trump supporters feel they are right to be concerned), and carry it into the ether for Mr. Trump … more earned media on his point.

    Second and more important, saying he’d “wait and see” about the election outcome was the only answer that fit his entire raison d’être as a candidate: standing up to a corrupt system, uncowed, and fighting for fairness.

    A few thoughts:

    1. The fact that Trump so regularly alleges fraud and unfairness serverely undermines his claims here. One of the things that so distressing about that habit is that it’ll make it much easier for the Democrats to get away with cheating, if that’s what happens. Boys, wolves, and all that.
    2. I agree there’s nothing wrong with Trump saying that he’ll wait and see until afterward; after all, if there is clear evidence of fraud, then he should contest it. However, he’s going around alleging that it’s fraud now.
    • #23
  24. Damocles Inactive
    Damocles
    @Damocles

    Valiuth:So we’re still going with the Trump is a secret super genius wizard? Okay…. Now I’m looking for an African river but I can’t recall its name.

    Talking to me?  Not in denial here, I’m enjoying it win or lose.  I’m happy that that after eight years we’ve got a response to this:

    “If they bring a knife to the fight, we bring a gun,” Obama said. “Because from what I understand folks in Philly like a good brawl. I’ve seen Eagles fans.”

    http://www.factcheck.org/2011/01/obama-guns-and-the-untouchables/

    • #24
  25. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    Tom Meyer, Ed.: Trump so regularly alleges fraud and unfairness serverely undermines his claims here

    Election sleuthing by Brian Maass of KCNC-TV in Denver exposed multiple instances in recent years where dead Coloradans were still voting. A dead World War II veteran named John Grosso voted in a 2006 primary election, and a woman named Sara Sosa who died in 2009 cast ballots in 2010, 2011, 2012 and 2013. Mrs. Sosa’s husband Miguel died in 2008, but a vote was cast in his name one year later.

    A study by the watchdog Public Interest Legal Foundation found in just eight Virginia counties, 1,046 alien non-citizens successfully registered to vote. These aliens were only accidentally caught because when they renewed their driver’s license and self-reported, telling authorities they were a non-citizen. This study doesn’t even include the metropolises of Fairfax County and Arlington.

    Pennsylvania’s secretary of state admitted data showed more than 700 Pennsylvania voters might have cast two ballots in recent elections, yet said she’s powerless to investigate or prosecute

    According to a local NBC report, Indiana State Police are in the midst of a statewide investigation into possible voter registration fraud.“Police believe there could be hundreds of fraudulent voter registration records with different combinations of made up names and addresses

    An investigation is underway into three Comanche County, Oklahoma, residents who voted twice in last week’s Presidential Preferential Primary, according to the local ABC 7 News station, KSWO.formation,

     

    • #25
  26. CM Member
    CM
    @CM

    Salvatore Padula:

    CM: P.S. how is it the Trump can be impeached on day 1 for words said in private 11 years ago, but Obama can’t be for imprisoning a US citizen over a video wrongly accused if instigating the Libyan riot? Even if it HAD been the spark, freedom of speech still exists. And why can’t Hillary be impeached for compromising national security?

    I’m sorry. You seem to have me confused with someone else. I’ve never taken the positions referenced above.

    Sorry. That part was meant in the general. However, you seem to agree with the party at large so you seemed like a likely candidate to explain this ridiculousness.

    • #26
  27. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    The instinct to over-analyze and reinterpret to refit the world into one’s own comfortable view is baffling to me.  It sure isn’t a formula for winning.

    • #27
  28. Marion Evans Inactive
    Marion Evans
    @MarionEvans

    “Contrary to received wisdom, Trump was brilliant to say he would wait to see if the election was rigged.”

    He was only brilliant if it increased his vote with independents. If there is no cheating, it is not because people are holding back on cheating, as you seem to imply, but because it is very hard to do so.  Otherwise, your reasoning (and Trump’s) reminded me of this:

    • #28
  29. Spin Inactive
    Spin
    @Spin

    Salvatore Padula:

    CM: P.S. how is it the Trump can be impeached on day 1 for words said in private 11 years ago, but Obama can’t be for imprisoning a US citizen over a video wrongly accused if instigating the Libyan riot? Even if it HAD been the spark, freedom of speech still exists. And why can’t Hillary be impeached for compromising national security?

    I’m sorry. You seem to have me confused with someone else. I’ve never taken the positions referenced above.

    Folks do this all the time.

    • #29
  30. tigerlily Member
    tigerlily
    @tigerlily

    If I didn’t know better, I’d think Heather wants Trump to lose by double digits and for the Dems to gain control in the Senate.

    • #30
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