Time, CNBC, and Drudge vs. CNN

 

After last night’s debate, CNN, Time, CNBC, and the Drudge Report conducted online polls on their websites of those who had watched the debate. According to CNN, 62% of the voters who tuned in thought that Hillary had won. Time reports that 55% thought that Trump had won. CNBC informs us that 67% thought that Trump had won. And the Drudge Report found that 82.34% thought that Trump had won.

Go figure.

There are 38 comments.

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  1. Mate De Inactive
    Mate De
    @MateDe

    CNN and Drudge I get, but Time and CNBC are surprising.

    • #1
  2. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    Two words: selection bias.

    • #2
  3. Mate De Inactive
    Mate De
    @MateDe

    drlorentz:Two words: selection bias.

    That explains CNN and Drudge but not Time or CNBC

    • #3
  4. PHenry Member
    PHenry
    @PHenry

    I suspect that the after debate coverage will have a huge impact on those polls, if you watch CNN tell you how the Republican proved he was the racist, bigot, homophobe the Democrat said he was, you may think that the Democrat won, and visa versa.

    So these polls likely reflect less on the debate performance and more on the analysis that viewer was exposed to.

    • #4
  5. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Until someone establishes exactly what “winning” means, these polls are just subjective popularity reality-television contests. :)

    • #5
  6. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Mate De:

    drlorentz:Two words: selection bias.

    That explains CNN and Drudge but not Time or CNBC

    Hippies too radical for Clinton (Feel the Bern!) and Democrats disappointed that she didn’t make Trump cry.

    • #6
  7. Richard Finlay Member
    Richard Finlay
    @RichardFinlay

    I wouldn’t entirely discount the notion that  some might over-report Trump’s stats to keep pressure on Hillary’s required special interest groups.  Encourages turnout if you think there might be trouble.

    • #7
  8. Aaron Bludworth Inactive
    Aaron Bludworth
    @Bludworth

    A Hannity poll would have been 95%…

    • #8
  9. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    More an indication of the enthusiasm gap than polling or how the debate was perceived.

    I note that the harshest criticism of Trump’s performance came from #NeverTrump columnists.

    I was surprised that Hillary is still talking only to her base and that Trump was even less well-prepared than I expected (and that was a low bar).

    I don’t see how this debate moves the needle much except that the more Trump stays away from grotesque gaffes and can manage to look presidential for part of the time, the more people seem to be accepting of his peculiar stylings and distaste for policy specifics.  A better performance next time measured against this rather low floor will likely boost him more.

    • #9
  10. James Gawron Thatcher
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Mate De:

    drlorentz:Two words: selection bias.

    That explains CNN and Drudge but not Time or CNBC

    Mate De & drlorentz,

    This suggests that the undecided, the uncommitted, the people in the middle were more impressed by Trump than Hillary. I actually thought this would be the result. There was nothing conclusive about the results that would sway somebody who was already well committed. However, Trump was stronger overall. He didn’t appear unhinged, she appeared small and smug.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #10
  11. Eugene Kriegsmann Member
    Eugene Kriegsmann
    @EugeneKriegsmann

    I think it is a simple equation. The polls reflect the views of the people who tend to view those particular networks of news sources. Obviously, Drudge attracts a large number of people whose views tend to the right, CNN on the other hand attracts people who have leftist viewpoints.

    If you listen to the HLC podcast, they saw a clearcut Trump victory. Listen to Commentary and your get a pretty opposite view. Ultimately, people saw and heard what they expected to see and hear.

    • #11
  12. livingthehighlife Inactive
    livingthehighlife
    @livingthehighlife

    Talk about burying the lede… Drudge was only at 82%?!

    • #12
  13. Kate Braestrup Member
    Kate Braestrup
    @GrannyDude

    I was listening to Rush Limbaugh (a sentence, BTW, that I never thought I’d write) and his take was that, while those who are really interested in politics and are listening for accuracy in facts and smoothness in delivery judge the debate in one way, “regular” people judge it another way altogether. They don’t know (and perhaps don’t care) if Trump has a “program.” When Hillary acts scornful towards him, they feel that she scorns them. When the moderator and Hillary join forces to push him on the Birther Thing and tell him he’s a racist, they feel (again, accurately) that they are being called racists.

    • #13
  14. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    Aaron Miller: Hippies too radical for Clinton (Feel the Bern!) and Democrats disappointed that she didn’t make Trump cry.

    James Gawron: This suggests that the undecided, the uncommitted, the people in the middle were more impressed by Trump than Hillary.

    Since we can’t be sure of the composition of the voters in any of these polls, the results cannot be interpreted to indicate the preferences of specific voter groups. In fact, a more reasonable inference runs the other way; the mix of poll participants (not to be confused with viewers of the debate) at each website can be ordered from most favorable to Clinton to most favorable to Trump in the order listed in the OP:

    CNN>Time>CNBC>Drudge

    1. The population visiting a website, especially during an unusual time, is conjectural.
    2. Participants in an online poll are not necessarily representative of viewers of the debate who frequent the website.
    3. Hence, online poll results are a better indication of the population of poll participants than of the opinion of any particular set of voters.
    • #14
  15. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtW84diUEAANmQM.jpg

    • #15
  16. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    Kae Roberts and Jay Eardly were leaning toward Hillary Clinton before Monday night’s debate.

    By the end, they had both pulled away.

    John Kokos and Hank Federal were undecided going in, potential Clinton backers.

    By the end, they’d ruled her out.

    Indeed, while polls found that Clinton had won the first general-election debate with Donald Trump on Monday, she may not have won actual votes. And she may even have lost some, at least in the battleground state of North Carolina.

    In a focus group of 21 voters from around Charlotte conducted by McClatchy and The Charlotte Observer, four who had been up for grabs before the debate had moved away from her by the end.

    http://www.charlotteobserver.com/news/politics-government/article104382951.html#storylink=cpy

    • #16
  17. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Has Drudge ever been wrong?

    • #17
  18. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    In my opinion it’s not difficult. Voters are looking for someone who will raise hell, change direction of the ship of state, and fire half the crew in Washington, DC. They are not looking for the winner of the college debating club. Liberal nostroms no matter how glib will not take the day.

    • #18
  19. Mate De Inactive
    Mate De
    @MateDe

    Kate Braestrup:I was listening to Rush Limbaugh (a sentence, BTW, that I never thought I’d write)

    Oh Kate, we’re bringing you over, slowly but surely you’re coming to the conservative side. I know you’re not there yet but you will be.

    • #19
  20. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    Here’s an opinion from someone who was in the Princeton debating club:

    “Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) said Tuesday that Donald Trump had the upper hand over Hillary Clinton in last night’s debate and that it was his strongest debate performance so far. He also said the media’s focus on the birther issue is “amusing” because American voters don’t “give a flying flip about” it.”

    • #20
  21. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Mate De:

    Kate Braestrup:I was listening to Rush Limbaugh (a sentence, BTW, that I never thought I’d write)

    Oh Kate, we’re bringing you over, slowly but surely you’re coming to the conservative side. I know you’re not there yet but you will be.

    • #21
  22. Mate De Inactive
    Mate De
    @MateDe

    Viator:Here’s an opinion from someone who was in the Princeton debating club:

    “Senator Ted Cruz (R-TX) said Tuesday that Donald Trump had the upper hand over Hillary Clinton in last night’s debate and that it was his strongest debate performance so far. He also said the media’s focus on the birther issue is “amusing” because American voters don’t “give a flying flip about” it.”

    I remember her trying to say how much the birther thing hurt Obama’s feelings. Does ANYONE actually believe that?

    • #22
  23. PHenry Member
    PHenry
    @PHenry

    Viator: the media’s focus on the birther issue is “amusing” because American voters don’t “give a flying flip about” it.”

    I also thought it was an overreach when the ‘moderator’ as well as Hillary acted as if the very act of questioning the place of birth of a black man was proof of racism.  (Was it racism when the left did it with McCain? ) Especially in light of the fact that the very idea that Obama was born in Kenya came from his own publishers website, and the original question came to the press from the Hillary campaign.

    • #23
  24. Guruforhire Member
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    Mate De:

    drlorentz:Two words: selection bias.

    That explains CNN and Drudge but not Time or CNBC

    I believe drudge linked to time and cnbc

    • #24
  25. Paul A. Rahe Contributor
    Paul A. Rahe
    @PaulARahe

    livingthehighlife:Talk about burying the lede… Drudge was only at 82%?!

    Ok, ok, mea culpa.

    • #25
  26. Paul A. Rahe Contributor
    Paul A. Rahe
    @PaulARahe

    Viator:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtW84diUEAANmQM.jpg

    Very interesting. Thank you.

    • #26
  27. Sleepywhiner Inactive
    Sleepywhiner
    @Sleepywhiner

    Aaron Bludworth:A Hannity poll would have been 95%…

    it would be 100%  A poll of one.

    • #27
  28. Sleepywhiner Inactive
    Sleepywhiner
    @Sleepywhiner

    Paul A. Rahe:

    Viator:https://pbs.twimg.com/media/CtW84diUEAANmQM.jpg

    Very interesting. Thank you.

    A co-worker and I have a theory that the people who haven’t decided in their responses to pollsters fall into 2 camps:

    1. Those who are deciding between whether to vote or not (and those who decide to vote, will largely fall to Trump)
    2. Those who have really decided on trump and won’t tell their friends or pollsters

    I add to this that people know Hillary.  There is no stigma to telling a pollster you’ll vote for her.  Other than #nevertrumpers (sorry) who are probably wondering when do i vote for Herself? Some of those 3rd party voters are coming back to her, but her numbers are her high water mark.  Trump’s are hidden in those undecideds.

    • #28
  29. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    Sleepywhiner: Trump’s are hidden in those undecideds.

    How Trump won over a bar full of undecideds and Democrats at The Tin Lizzy in swing state Pennsylvania.

    http://nypost.com/2016/09/26/the-best-debate-takes-come-from-inside-the-bar/

    • #29
  30. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    Could this be one of the Trumpster’s supporters?

    https://media.giphy.com/media/l41YdsBZC6Im0L8cM/giphy.gif

    • #30

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