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Ross Douthat Predicts the Outcome of the Debate
This strikes me, alas, as only too reasonable. If you can refute it, please do–please.
Published in GeneralHillary Clinton is not a particularly appealing politician. But she is a solid and experienced debater who knows the workings of American government inside and out. A careful, meticulous, unexciting performance of the kind that she has delivered in many debates before should suffice to make her look wiser, safer and more serious than the tabloid character across the stage from her.
I think the problem for Hillary is that the best attack is straight down the middle.
Attack her experience.
I mean its not like she doesn’t have a long history of being some combination of an uninspired mediocrity (senate career), and an abject failure (Sec. of State), and a divisive and corrupt first lady.
She can talk about her experience, and all trump has to do is remind the world that she is experienced at being terrible at her job.
I wonder where the republicans could find someone with a penchant for frontal assaults?
We’ll see in about 5 minutes.
Unless a candidate has a melt-down, I have to wonder what influence debates actually have? It’s not as if we’re interviewing two qualified applicants and having to sort through arcane details.
In this case, the two candidates are different in almost all regards – I don’t see people switching sides based on whether or not the candidate knows “what Aleppo is” or the candidates’ thoughts on depreciation of capital expenditures by LLCs.
My hunch is that if Trump meets or exceeds expectations, he will “win” the debate (politically). If he doesn’t make a major screw-up, it will be a draw.
In an hour or so, I may well be proved clueless.
Amen. Prediction: Boring Hillary bums out her supporters; even toned-down Donald makes his supporters happy. Toned-down Donald also reassures the vast center, some of whom look at him anew. Despite the media’s best efforts to spin it otherwise, The Donald wins the evening.
Very plausible take but:
Ross Douthat, January 7, 2016 – “Donald Trump isn’t going to be the Republican nominee.”
Bet Ross is wrong again. Let’s get it on!
“…But she is a solid and experienced debater who knows the workings of American government inside and out.”
Which is precisely what people don’t want. You still don’t get it, do you Ross?
The guy at NBC couldn’t get more than two or three sentences out of his mouth before displaying his bias. What a hack! I am already disgusted. Did I say something off topic…
We’ll know soon- but from the article:
I recall that @docjay mentioned a while back that he thought Trump had been the beneficiary of recent coaching.
So what if Trump isn’t “proudly ignorant” in the debate but has instead spent the last few weeks learning some of the things he should have known all along?
I can hope…
HRC has already won this debate. Tomorrows stories have already been written. They will be published shortly after the debate ends. What happens during the debate does not matter. All that matters is what people are told that happened.
Boogers. I wasn’t going to watch, but my kids wanted to. (How do I tell the next generation not to watch a presidential debate?) Her voice is so…. gra… ting…
I tried to do my duty but failed: could only watch one hour.
My translation:
Him: I can’t think so good, but I don’t have to. I pay people to think for me, many many very fine thinkers. You know they’re good because I am rich. This country is a mess because of people like Hillary. Vote for me.
Her: I don’t think either because I have programmers. They have installed into my cortex thousands of pages of white papers written by interns who not only have been boffed by my husband, but who work for the people who have run this country forever. If you watch carefully, you can tell when a new download is finished: my eyes blink. Trust us to do for you has we have done for so long.
Prediction: her supporters will be happier with the performance than his, but they will be confused by the minimal effect of her success. He wins on content.
No, I think that’s right.
Honestly, I think the worst thing for Hillary is the constant cheerleading of the entire media and celebrities. People don’t like to be condescended to.
Do you think it turned out that way in retrospect? I’m asking honestly; I did not watch. I’d like to hope that you’re right and he did exactly as you suggest.
Who won? I was watching the Indians game.
I know who lost: America.
Your prediction strikes me as hopeful–although, of course, I hope I’m proven wrong–but your “him” and “her” is just brilliant!
Yup.
The Indians did! Central Division Champs!
Trump was his usual shallow self, missed every opportunity to nail her and she was at her lying progressive best. But I thought he lost the primary debates, so what do I know. We’ll see what the polls show.
He came off well at the start and then was bogged down in his narcissism so much I was singing ,”no time to wallow in the mire” but he kept wallowing. He had some zingers that low info folks will remember though .
She was reading a script poorly at first then did much better. Prepared and less robotic than usual.
Lester Holt helped her but Trump shutting Holt down made Trump look like the alpha male many in our country crave after skinny jeans McGirlyPitcher. Baseball analogies continuing , Trump missed on so many easy zingers it was just sad.
Mr. Trump had some good moments. He did not prepare as well as he should have. I have seen reports in the media that he was pretty relaxed in his debate prep, reports that came out before the debate.
His biggest problem is that he is thin skinned when it comes to personal attacks. He resorts to the “I did this” and “I did that” defense.
One other observation. Whatever damage Matt Lauer did to NBC with his tough questions he put to Hillary, let’s just say Lester Holt made sure that NBC will be invited to President’s Obama last White House Christmas Party.
I didn’t watch, only read some of the key turning points. But from this limited view, it looked like Trump needed to win big, but didn’t.
How am I able to say this when I am grossly uninformed about the debate performance?
Well, Romney had a great night in 2012. It supposedly gave him a boost as conservatives “came home” and were more comfortable with him, and perhaps it gave him the edge with independents, a cohort he eventually won.
Trump needed a night like that to get to a comfortable margin against Hillary. He has to flip a lot of states at this point. Yes, we can argue about the enthusiasm gap between Obama and Hillary. Yes, there are a lot of close polls. But is it close enough to flip his most promising working class states like Ohio (Obama by 3%) Pennsylvania (Obama by 6%), and Michigan (Obama by 9.5%) AND also flip Colorado, Virginia or Florida? I doubt it.
Trump failed to respond to so many softballs. As my daughter (fully supportive of Trump) and me (feh) watched, we kept identifying the “Oh, she really set herself up” Hillary statements. Except Trump didn’t return fire. Hillary caught Trump’s ego, and ran with it. He’d tear on for 5 minute word salads — which were tangents in the R debates — and now were merely psychotic tirades.
Yea, Trumpers, thanks for allowing us to see how Mitt should have debated. Or, not.
It was frankly pathetic.
Bush lost the first debate to Gore, who towered over him, the seasoned Washington insider who thought he was a shoo-in. She is a well rehearsed figure – he is not rehearsed. We thought the questions were stupid. I think the separation here is looking at results; Hillary’s accomplishments and failures, along with Obama’s because she will continue his policies times 10, and Trump’s accomplishments and failures.
Because she knows politics and policy inside out does not make her the better candidate unless she has had good results. There is a reason why the police, border patrol, most of the military and average citizens are not supporting her, and supporting him; because Obama and Clinton have failed to the point where these groups are facing much dire consequences just doing their jobs. If you hire a plumber that’s been around for 30 years, and you keep having to call him for new leaks, it may be time to try a new plumber.
Yes. Also, Trump, according to Scott Adams, may have won by ‘losing.’ See http://blog.dilbert.com/post/151007796236/i-score-the-first-debate
I had a bad dream last night about a big red marshmallow chasing me.
Was your pillow gone when you woke up?
No, but Trump didn’t make a fool of himself either, or come across as a crazy nutball.
Shrug. I hope he does better next time.