Finally, Some Good News: US Jobs Surge in June

 

070816wsjIf you look hard, you can find some bad news in the June jobs report. Wage growth remains soft and unspectacular. Long-term unemployment rose and is still way above pre-recession levels. Job growth so far this year is averaging 171,000 a month vs. 229,000 in 2015. And while last month’s 287,000 job gain is a big number, the return of 35,000 Verizon strikers and natural bounce-back after a really weak May number played a role in the jobs surge.

But, but, but …. 287,000 is still a big number (private sector jobs were up 256,000) — even with all the caveats — and one that eases recession fears. (As the Obama economic team noted this morning, US businesses have now added 14.8 million jobs since private-sector job growth turned positive in early 2010.) Also, the labor force participation rate edged higher, which is why the jobless rate rose to 4.9%. It rose for a good reason: more people rejoining the workforce. Moreover, the U-6 unemployment-underemployment rates dipped to 9.6%, its lowest level since April 2008.

All in all, seemingly an encouraging harbinger. Capital Economics: “Furthermore, the clear acceleration in second-quarter GDP growth, the strong rebound in the June ISM indices and the continued strength of other labour market indicators suggest that employment growth will continue to recover.” Barclays puts it this way: “If July payrolls show continued strength, a healthier trend reading of job growth would be consistent with reduced recession risk, in our view.”

Published in Economics
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