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What Happens Brex’t?
Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away. Quite a day’s work.
A striking aspect of the results is the extent to which the vote represents a victory of the old over the young. “Young voters wanted Brexit the least,” as the Mirror put it, “and will have to live with it the longest.”
The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.
Brexiters were led to victory in the referendum overnight by triumphing in Tory shires and Old Labour heartlands in Wales and the north of England.
But the Kingdom is no longer United after London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backed Remain.
The more damaging legacy, however, could be the staggering difference in how people of different ages [voted].
The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.
Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “Young people voted to remain by a considerable margin, but were outvoted. They were voting for their future, yet it has been taken from them.”
I hope that the optimists are proven right and that this is the first day of a bright new future for Britain and Europe. But unless it is — and unless the gain that justifies the pain comes sooner, rather than later — Britain (or what’s left of it) will experience an unprecedented generational war. Or at least, I’m racking my mind, and I can’t think of a precedent, can you?
Adam Newman@NewmanDipFa I’m so angry. A generation given everything: Free education, golden pensions, social mobility have voted to strip my generation’s future.
The pain will certainly be acute in the immediate term.
Now we’ll watch Europe’s biggest divorce case since Henry VIII. I posted this a few months ago, but it’s worth dusting off and watching again. This is from Open Europe’s simulation post-Brexit negotiations. Former Chancellor Norman Lamont is playing the role of the UK:
As someone who wishes Britain and Europe well, I hope very much that Britain withdraws in an orderly way and recovers as quickly as possible, leaving behind a Europe that’s better for the experience. I hope the rest of the EU learns and benefits from crisis and failure. And if it neither learns nor survives, I hope Europe’s reversion to a gaggle of fractious, quarreling states goes better than history would indicate.
Whatever happens, I’ll report. If you make a contribution this week, it will be earmarked for a chapter of Brave New World about Brexit and its consequences. Please contribute! This story is getting more and more interesting by the day — but I’m still well away from the goal.
As for the old “populist and racist” saw, that ain’t working anymore. The notion of a “proposition nation” is, to use a British expression, utter bollocks. And it always has been.
Gotta move home quickly. #Texit ;)
Pseud,
Dr. Evil couldn’t agree more. Yes, let us reduce the profound questions of mankind to arbitrage.
Regards,
Jim
All the more reason for careful immigration control to ensure those who are allowed to immigrate will be compatible with the Nation they are immigrating too. Don’t need anymore “Americans” who don’t want to live under the Constitution. Lots of Muslim countries they can enjoy Sharia in. Ditto Socialists and Communists, Monarchists etc.
The Inklings are smiling down on this. That’s enough for me.
This 100% Certified USDA Grade A Financial Pornography
The cash indexes and the carnival barkers at CNBC are an arbitrage reaction side show compared to the Futures markets.
The DJIA is up 100+ points from last night’s chat session.
There was a crash last night and some nimble day traders, hedge funds, CTA’s, and other unsavory types not allowed in the carpeted rooms at the country club are not panicking this morning.
Heck, if you would’ve bought the British Pound at 10pm CT last night you could offset the position and take the rest of the day off with a tidy profit.
The Gods of the Copybook Headings prevail again.
Of course there will be short-term problems, and pain – but I feel that they’ve made the correct choice for the long-term.
Good luck to the British people, I wish them all the best!
OT, but has anyone done a study on the effects of algorithmic trading on counteracting potential crashes?
I don’t agree with that assessment. The “left” is now the crony alliance between government, financial industry, large corporations, academia and media which also shares a uniform and militant secularism. They successfully mobilize program-dependent voters to keep them in power while they empower judges and bureaucrats to minimize any undesired effect of elections. The old right-left lines don’t work any more. It is ‘toffs and suckers’ versus whoever is left in the middle. That is a very different kind of class war.
How about Constitutional Monarchists? Are we kicked out, too? After all, it’s really only a matter of method for selecting the CEO of the government, and the Twentieth Century has proven that elections may not be the best method.
There are several with mixed results. Generally they exacerbate volatility in times like this, but those same studies also acknowledge they provide liquidity.
Some of the issues last night were outside the real of algo’s.
The really big foreign exchange transactions are over the counter and done from desk to desk among huge money center banks. I’ve no idea to what portion of their risk they lay off through futures. It is substantial.
There is arbitrage that must take place between OTC and exchanges for the markets to function and that is often handled algorithmically.
The chicken is still little and somewhere a horse just died. It’s the glue factory that binds us.
What’s next:
Britain (or what’s left of it) will experience an unprecedented generational war. Or at least, I’m racking my mind, and I can’t think of a precedent, can you?
It seems to me, he should blame his peers. From The Telegraph:
Over 50% of young people under 24 didn’t vote at all. There might be a pro-EU sentiment among this age group, but apparently not strong enough to go out and vote. Sometime in the near future I can see generational conflicts over many issues, but hardly over the outcome of this referendum. The EU in the current state is not going to outperform the UK economically any time soon.
Seems they took a page from the colonials:
Why stand we here idle? What is it that gentlemen wish? What would they have? Is life so dear, or peace so sweet, as to be purchased at the price of chains and slavery? Forbid it, Almighty God! I know not what course others may take; but as for me, give me liberty or give me death!
From where I sit, I can look over onto the trading floor of a major Oil Company where they do commodity and currency trading all day long. I expected it to look like an overturned ant heap this morning, but it’s pretty much business as usual.
They are celebrating in the Kremlin. The disintegration of the western alliance is Putin’s top foreign policy goal.
I expect in a few months everyone will look back and wonder what the fuss was about.
So britian has to keep doing stupid and destructive things because it may make Putin happy to stop being stupid? I am sorry but that is totally nanners.
They may want to rethink their party. The EU is not a military alliance, and NATO still stands. It seems to me that, speaking generally, a Britain unchained is a far stronger opponent.
It also fails to take into account that issues of common administration and military alliances ARE DIFFERENT THINGS.
NATO somehow managed to hang together before the EU, and I expect it’ll do so again, for the same reason – the threat from Russia. Something about nations having interests, not friends?
“God rot all Royals, give us the wisdom of the Americans’
Mr Fox, “The Madness of King George“.
Sums it up for me.
The managed decline may be more of a goal.
A significant risk of actual disintegration is that somebody nukes up. Putin probably does not want Germany or Poland nuking up. Unless Putin intends to invade immediately (before anybody can nuke up), disintegration is a bad thing for him.
He would much rather have a decline in Western forces accompanied by an increase in paralyzing bureaucracy.
Did somebody leave NATO without telling me?