What Happens Brex’t?

 

2d7c08db-9d87-43ce-921f-513acca86f7e-2060x1236Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away. Quite a day’s work.

A striking aspect of the results is the extent to which the vote represents a victory of the old over the young. “Young voters wanted Brexit the least,” as the Mirror put it, “and will have to live with it the longest.”

The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

Brexiters were led to victory in the referendum overnight by triumphing in Tory shires and Old Labour heartlands in Wales and the north of England.

But the Kingdom is no longer United after London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backed Remain.

The more damaging legacy, however, could be the staggering difference in how people of different ages [voted].

The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “Young people voted to remain by a considerable margin, but were outvoted. They were voting for their future, yet it has been taken from them.”

I hope that the optimists are proven right and that this is the first day of a bright new future for Britain and Europe. But unless it is — and unless the gain that justifies the pain comes sooner, rather than later — Britain (or what’s left of it) will experience an unprecedented generational war. Or at least, I’m racking my mind, and I can’t think of a precedent, can you?

 I’m so angry. A generation given everything: Free education, golden pensions, social mobility have voted to strip my generation’s future.

The pain will certainly be acute in the immediate term.

Now we’ll watch Europe’s biggest divorce case since Henry VIII. I posted this a few months ago, but it’s worth dusting off and watching again. This is from Open Europe’s simulation post-Brexit negotiations. Former Chancellor Norman Lamont is playing the role of the UK:

As someone who wishes Britain and Europe well, I hope very much that Britain withdraws in an orderly way and recovers as quickly as possible, leaving behind a Europe that’s better for the experience. I hope the rest of the EU learns and benefits from crisis and failure. And if it neither learns nor survives, I hope Europe’s reversion to a gaggle of fractious, quarreling states goes better than history would indicate.

Whatever happens, I’ll report. If you make a contribution this week, it will be earmarked for a chapter of Brave New World about Brexit and its consequences. Please contribute! This story is getting more and more interesting by the day — but I’m still well away from the goal.

Published in General
Like this post? Want to comment? Join Ricochet’s community of conservatives and be part of the conversation. Join Ricochet for Free.

There are 324 comments.

Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.
  1. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    She:“That generation fought and died by the millions, and endured sacrifices you can’t even imagine, so you could live a life free from war, and want. You little worm. Life goes on. Sort it out. Get on with it. Make something of yourself. Stop whining.”

    No, that generation — the one to which you refer — voted to remain. It’s their kids who voted out, and those kids conform to his description. Those old enough to have fought in the war wanted to stay. It’s an interesting age breakdown.

    • #91
  2. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Pseudodionysius:So Briton handed the EU it’s head on the feast day of St John the Baptist.

    In the same week the feast day of St Thomas More and St John Fisher was celebrated.

    • #92
  3. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: Only British citizens were allowed to vote, so no.

    Is there such a thing?

    • #93
  4. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Pseudodionysius:

    Pseudodionysius:So Briton handed the EU it’s head on the feast day of St John the Baptist.

    In the same week the feast day of St Thomas More and St John Fisher was celebrated.

    You’re welcome.

    • #94
  5. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    “The world is thy ship and not thy home.”

    St Therese of Lisieux

    • #95
  6. Liz Member
    Liz
    @Liz

    Zafar:

    Liz:

    Larry3435:

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.

    I’m uncomfortable with purity tests for something which is a birthright.

    It isn’t a purity test; as Larry pointed out, Bernie is an American citizen. But he is not recognizably American in his principles. It seems obvious that one can hold technical citizenship but speak or act in a way that is antithetical to the founding principles of the country.

    • #96
  7. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Robert Zubrin:There is potential for a lot of damage here, particularly if the EU bureaucrats play hardball on trade to try to prevent others from leaving. That could lead to a collapse of the European economy, with worldwide effects.

    Agreed. Those threats by the Eurocrats and similar ones by “back of the queue” Obama show what scoundrels they are.

    What is needed is a restoration of the Common Market, with countries outside the EU, for example the UK, allowed to be members, alongside the EU. A European free trade zone is necessary, and, aside from colossal arrogance, there is no reason why the EU needs to regulate the internal affairs of countries that it trades with.

    Disagree. The EEC/Common Market had much of the bad of the EU, including external tariffs.

    A free trade area would be preferable.

    Hopefully sanity will prevail.

    • #97
  8. Larry3435 Inactive
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    Zafar:

    Liz:

    Larry3435:

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.

    I’m uncomfortable with purity tests for something which is a birthright.

    And Zafar, it is a simple matter of fact, and in no way a dig, that you are not an American.  Therefore, I understand why you think of nationality as independent from ideology.  That’s how it is everywhere in the world.  Except here.  And when that ends, so does America, no matter what it says on the map.

    • #98
  9. Larry3435 Inactive
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    No Caesar: Scottish independence lost the vote — a vote by Scots only — by roughly 10 percentage points, 2 years ago. That was a decisive loss for the Scottish independence group, and one that leaves no moral argument for another one soon. There is no reason why a Tory government is going to give them another referendum anytime soon, unless they have a legal obligation, or England decides it wants to be rid of their socialist neighbors to the north. Labor definitely will not, because they will be destroyed if they lose the Scottish vote. The practical argument (as opposed to the emotional one) for an independent Scotland is even weaker now.

    All true, of course.  But I was getting a kick out of the fact that the Scots mostly voted to stay in the EU.  So many of them want their sovereignty back from Great Britain, but don’t seem to mind being a vassal state to Germany.  Go figure.

    • #99
  10. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Larry3435:

    No Caesar: Scottish independence lost the vote — a vote by Scots only — by roughly 10 percentage points, 2 years ago. That was a decisive loss for the Scottish independence group, and one that leaves no moral argument for another one soon. There is no reason why a Tory government is going to give them another referendum anytime soon, unless they have a legal obligation, or England decides it wants to be rid of their socialist neighbors to the north. Labor definitely will not, because they will be destroyed if they lose the Scottish vote. The practical argument (as opposed to the emotional one) for an independent Scotland is even weaker now.

    All true, of course. But I was getting a kick out of the fact that the Scots mostly voted to stay in the EU. So many of them want their sovereignty back from Great Britain, but don’t seem to mind being a vassal state to Germany. Go figure.

    The EU kneels and genuflects each day to Hegel, so it’s apropos that a hive of Marxist dialectical materialism would look to Germany for government handouts they will never receive.

    • #100
  11. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Liz:

    Zafar:

    Liz:

    Larry3435:

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.

    I’m uncomfortable with purity tests for something which is a birthright.

    It isn’t a purity test; as Larry pointed out, Bernie is an American citizen. But he is not recognizably American in his principles. It seems obvious that one can hold technical citizenship but speak or act in a way that is antithetical to the founding principles of the country.

    A rose by any other name would smell as sweet : – )

    • #101
  12. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Pseudodionysius:Global financial collapse – think tank workers hardest hit.

    No. Ordinary working people hardest hit.

    • #102
  13. Austin Murrey Inactive
    Austin Murrey
    @AustinMurrey

    Zafar:

    Liz:

    Zafar:

    Liz:

    Larry3435:

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.

    I’m uncomfortable with purity tests for something which is a birthright.

    It isn’t a purity test; as Larry pointed out, Bernie is an American citizen. But he is not recognizably American in his principles. It seems obvious that one can hold technical citizenship but speak or act in a way that is antithetical to the founding principles of the country.

    A rose by any other name would smell as sweet : – )

    Something tells me Bernie doesn’t smell of roses.

    • #103
  14. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Larry3435:

    And Zafar, it is a simple matter of fact, and in no way a dig, that you are not an American. Therefore, I understand why you think of nationality as independent from ideology. That’s how it is everywhere in the world. Except here. And when that ends, so does America, no matter what it says on the map.

    No offence taken, Larry.  And every country has people who make a similar argument about their chosen measure and being truly of their nation.  I don’t think the US is unique when it comes to this.

    • #104
  15. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    Pseudodionysius:Global financial collapse – think tank workers hardest hit.

    No. Ordinary working people hardest hit.

    Think tank workers angst about working people would be touching during the Greek fiasco. Now it’s just the chicken little doom mongering that everyone has tuned out.

    • #105
  16. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Claire, why do you think London voted so differently to the rest of England?  Do you know if there was a class/income group disparity in how Londoners voted?

    • #106
  17. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    DialMforMurder:In pretty much every election I can remember, the young have overwhelmingly skewed left. The reasons are obvious for anyone who drifted right as they got older. And should be to you. How is this news?

    But I don’t see “remain” as a left-leaning vote. In fact, I see it as the opposite: People in trade, finance, and industry overwhelmingly wanted to remain. There’s very much an anti-capitalist, “to hell with the productive people who actually pay for everything” and a “screw the rich” vibe in the “leave” vote. Something quite close to standard-issue class war. There’s a reason the markets tanked.

    • #107
  18. Austin Murrey Inactive
    Austin Murrey
    @AustinMurrey

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    DialMforMurder:In pretty much every election I can remember, the young have overwhelmingly skewed left. The reasons are obvious for anyone who drifted right as they got older. And should be to you. How is this news?

    But I don’t see “remain” as a left-leaning vote. In fact, I see it as the opposite: People in trade, finance, and industry overwhelmingly wanted to remain. There’s very much an anti-capitalist, “to hell with the productive people who actually pay for everything” and a “screw the rich” vibe in the “leave” vote. Something quite close to standard-issue class war. There’s a reason the markets tanked.

    As I understand it from Brent’s excellent series of posts the markets tanked because they bet remain (and heavily after Jo Cox’s murder) and lost.

    Brent can correct me if I’m wrong but if I’m not the editors really need to spend more time reading the member feed. Also, speaking as someone in finance calling us the “productive class” is pretty laughable.

    I’ll get a good chuckle from that at the club over postprandial brandies.

    • #108
  19. J Climacus Member
    J Climacus
    @JClimacus

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    But I don’t see “remain” as a left-leaning vote. In fact, There’s a reason the markets tanked.

    Markets crave stability and hate any sort of instability or unforeseeable consequences. So any significant change in the status quo of political relations will cause a market reaction.

    The markets didn’t do so well in 1775-81 either.

    • #109
  20. J Climacus Member
    J Climacus
    @JClimacus

    I admit I also find something repellant about judging a momentous decision regarding local sovereignty by the immediate market reaction. Is that all that matters – what my portfolio looks like today?

    • #110
  21. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: People in trade, finance, and industry overwhelmingly wanted to remain.

    The left/right spectrum does not really speak very well to this. These people are not of “the right.” They are globalist fi-cons. Many of them also tend to be as open-border for people as for money, goods, and services. They also tend to be anti-discrimination about who moves across the borders. They’re willing to break a few eggs, including national identity and women raped, for what they see as the full economic good.

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: There’s very much an anti-capitalist, “to hell with the productive people who actually pay for everything” and a “screw the rich” vibe in the “leave” vote. Something quite close to standard-issue class war.

    Your final sentence may have captured part of it. The reason so many people say “screw the rich” is because they feel the rich have been screwing them. Some of that is good, old-fashioned class warfare. Other parts come from their trying to deal with change engendered by policies promulgated by the fi-con elites. The same is true here in America. Why is Trump the presumptive Republican nominee? Because people were tired of the globalist elites. Hearing someone even mouth the right words, words they heard from no others, was enough to have a lot of people jump on the bandwagon, despite all his flaws.

    • #111
  22. Justin Hertog Inactive
    Justin Hertog
    @RooseveltGuck

    anonymous:

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away.

    Who cares about day traders, hedge funds, and other zero-sum gamblers?

    Why shouldn’t the people of Scotland and Northern Ireland choose who makes the laws they live under?

    Liberty — subsidiarity — democracy!

    As I’ve been saying since before the breakup of the Soviet Union, railroad-era continental-scale empires are neither viable, sustainable, nor stable in the information age. People want to live under laws made by the people they live with, not handed down by unelected and unaccountable “experts” from afar.

    If the young do not value individual liberty and self-rule, then they are wrong, probably due to educational and media indoctrination, and they should thank their elder and wiser neighbours for rescuing them from the “European project” before its inevitable crack-up.

    Tomorrow, #texit.

    Texas and the U.K.

    I’m happy for the UK, but I don’t think we can dismember the Union without losing our freedom. Unlike the UK, which is itself a union of several peoples, our separate  states would be a wretched nursery of unceasing discord, etc., etc., etc.

    • #112
  23. David Carroll Thatcher
    David Carroll
    @DavidCarroll

    The predictions for chaos and financial collapse are, I think, greatly exaggerated.   The exit is not automatic.  As we are reminded in today’s Daily Shot, the terms of exit must be negotiated.   There is plenty of opportunity for the negotiators to minimize adverse effects.

    Thankfully for the Brits, they will not have John Kerry leading their negotiating team.

    • #113
  24. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    J Climacus:I admit I also find something repellant about judging a momentous decision regarding local sovereignty by the immediate market reaction. Is that all that matters – what my portfolio looks like today?

    In Hegel We Trust – no right, no left, no nation state, one currency, no transcendence, John Lennon Imagine Strawberry Fields Forever.

    • #114
  25. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Pseudodionysius:So Briton handed the EU it’s head on the feast day of St John the Baptist.

    The European Union: it’s nothing to lose your head over!

    • #115
  26. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    The markets did not tank for emotional reasons. Some truths that may be hard to fathom:

    Markets, especially equities and many consumable commodities do the best, rise, in times of certainty. They abhor uncertainty. When uncertainty prevails capital will flow from equities and consumable commodities to U.S. Dollar denominated assets and U.S. Treasuries. This is the flight to safety.

    Leading up to a week ago Thursday equities, oil, copper, and platinum were selling as was the British Pound and Euro with U.S. Dollar index and U.S. Treasuries rising. Predictable.

    MP Jo Cox was murdered 8 days ago. Market sentiment pivoted on that event that Remain would carry the day. Equities, Pounds, Oil and Copper all rose while the Dollar Index and Treasuries fell.

    The City of London is a financial center. The institutions HQ’d there commissioned private polls leading up to and exiting the vote. It was clear yesterday that private polling favored Remain as large capital was committed to U.S. equities and Pounds while Treasuries and Gold sold off hard. Huge institutions using leverage were all positioned for remain.

    When it became apparent Leave may win the positions acquired with debt had to be unwound out of necessity, not by choice, and not orderly.

    That is why the markets crashed last night. The crash is over. Put the pearls down and come in off the ledge.

    This is not class warfare. This is rational actors doing what we do.

    • #116
  27. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    I’ve written 5 posts on this topic, the first of which made it to the Main Feed. I think those document how this played out well.

    Perhaps if we had less of AEI’s big government protestations and more articles from people who are held accountable for their analysis and decision making published to the Main Feed there would be less arm waving and more reasoned discussion on the Main Feed.

    • #117
  28. Liz Member
    Liz
    @Liz

    Zafar:

    Larry3435:

    And Zafar, it is a simple matter of fact, and in no way a dig, that you are not an American. Therefore, I understand why you think of nationality as independent from ideology. That’s how it is everywhere in the world. Except here. And when that ends, so does America, no matter what it says on the map.

    No offence taken, Larry. And every country has people who make a similar argument about their chosen measure and being truly of their nation. I don’t think the US is unique when it comes to this.

    None have anything that can compare to the American founding, and the enduring spirit that arose from it. That is the difference. Obama’s comment, “I believe in American exceptionalism just as… the Greeks believe in Greek exceptionalism” is a perfect encapsulation of the Left’s failure to understand this.

    • #118
  29. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    David Carroll:The predictions for chaos and financial collapse are, I think, greatly exaggerated. The exit is not automatic. As we are reminded in today’s Daily Shot, the terms of exit must be negotiated. There is plenty of opportunity for the negotiators to minimize adverse effects.

    Thankfully for the Brits, they will not have John Kerry leading their negotiating team.

    There are no doubt hurt feelings and humble pie with a side of crow this morning.

    I had a helping last night, but managed to eek out a profit.

    The EU and Britain are good neighbors and trading partners. Unless the UE wishes to rush to the arms of Russia there will be very amicable trade treaties.

    This is a divorce, not a Jamestown suicide pact across the English Channel.

    We will weather the short term dislocations. Dust ourselves off and move forward.

    Short term pain for long term gain.

    • #119
  30. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Mike LaRoche:

    Pseudodionysius:So Briton handed the EU it’s head on the feast day of St John the Baptist.

    The European Union: it’s nothing to lose your head over!

    That’s ok – the young will euthanize the old and have their Logan’s Run soon enough.

    • #120
Become a member to join the conversation. Or sign in if you're already a member.