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What Happens Brex’t?
Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away. Quite a day’s work.
A striking aspect of the results is the extent to which the vote represents a victory of the old over the young. “Young voters wanted Brexit the least,” as the Mirror put it, “and will have to live with it the longest.”
The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.
Brexiters were led to victory in the referendum overnight by triumphing in Tory shires and Old Labour heartlands in Wales and the north of England.
But the Kingdom is no longer United after London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backed Remain.
The more damaging legacy, however, could be the staggering difference in how people of different ages [voted].
The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.
Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “Young people voted to remain by a considerable margin, but were outvoted. They were voting for their future, yet it has been taken from them.”
I hope that the optimists are proven right and that this is the first day of a bright new future for Britain and Europe. But unless it is — and unless the gain that justifies the pain comes sooner, rather than later — Britain (or what’s left of it) will experience an unprecedented generational war. Or at least, I’m racking my mind, and I can’t think of a precedent, can you?
Adam Newman@NewmanDipFa I’m so angry. A generation given everything: Free education, golden pensions, social mobility have voted to strip my generation’s future.
The pain will certainly be acute in the immediate term.
Now we’ll watch Europe’s biggest divorce case since Henry VIII. I posted this a few months ago, but it’s worth dusting off and watching again. This is from Open Europe’s simulation post-Brexit negotiations. Former Chancellor Norman Lamont is playing the role of the UK:
As someone who wishes Britain and Europe well, I hope very much that Britain withdraws in an orderly way and recovers as quickly as possible, leaving behind a Europe that’s better for the experience. I hope the rest of the EU learns and benefits from crisis and failure. And if it neither learns nor survives, I hope Europe’s reversion to a gaggle of fractious, quarreling states goes better than history would indicate.
Whatever happens, I’ll report. If you make a contribution this week, it will be earmarked for a chapter of Brave New World about Brexit and its consequences. Please contribute! This story is getting more and more interesting by the day — but I’m still well away from the goal.
Published in General
Then the people will have to try something else.
And if that doesn’t work, then they’ll try something else.
Eventually, the government will have to listen to the desires of the people not to be displaced.
I am enjoying the whingeing in the Guardian about not recognizing their country this morning. Funny that the elite left decries “divisiveness” when disagreements with their agenda become overt but don’t mind openly stomping on traditionalist sensibilities at every turn. The people who routinely mock and condescend now detect “hate” all ’round. Maybe it’s just a back at ‘ya, you twits. The ‘toffs and suckers’ coalition just lost a big one. Cheers.
What’s that British expression? “It’s early days.” I know it’s hard when you’re at the center of the whirlwind, but step back and think about what’s really happened, what’s really about to happen, and the timeframe it will play out over. And for god sakes turn off the TV. Those people are in the business of whipping up panic.
To a certain extent, the European Union was a scam by France to elevate itself over the UK and Germany.
They used resentment against Germany starting WW2 to keep Germany in check. They used resentment against the UK and US winning it to keep the UK in check.
Sans the UK, it will be harder to keep Germany in check.
Duplicate post
It has always been my belief that what makes an “American” is not an accident of geographic location, but rather a belief in a certain set of principles. These include separation of church and state, freedom of religion and speech, equality under the law for all citizens (including women), and recognition that the only legitimate function of government is to secure the rights of citizens to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness. All of these principles are fundamentally inconsistent with Sharia law and with the belief system of Islam generally.
Any Muslim who is willing to adopt these American principles, and recognize them as taking precedence over the view that government’s role is to impose submission to the Will of Allah on its subjects, is welcome to be an American. But it has turned out that not all Muslims who come to the United States are willing to do that.
Quoting yourself? ;^D I guess that’s one way to emphasize your point.
There is potential for a lot of damage here, particularly if the EU bureaucrats play hardball on trade to try to prevent others from leaving. That could lead to a collapse of the European economy, with worldwide effects. What is needed is a restoration of the Common Market, with countries outside the EU, for example the UK, allowed to be members, alongside the EU. A European free trade zone is necessary, and, aside from colossal arrogance, there is no reason why the EU needs to regulate the internal affairs of countries that it trades with.
Hopefully sanity will prevail.
This monster ego….it’s a trial. I’ll go back and delete the unedited one.
Unfortunately, they’re now inconsistent with American law too. (But that’s an aside, back to Brexit!)
But what does history suggest?
But a lot of them are consistent with the civil religion of France (for example), while some of them (the only legitimate function of government etc.) are clearly not part of the world view of many Americans.
It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)
Honestly, I think American identy is more organic and less strictly ideological than that.
I heard one pundit say that there was a large contingent of British voters who wanted Leave but were going to vote Remain because they were afraid of the potential instability of Leave. To me that means that there might be many more pro-Leave people than the vote shows.
Contracepting and aborting yourself out of existence and trying to plug the hole with please look away and ignore the rapes immigration policies apparently didn’t appeal to a majority of Britons.
“Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away.”
Dogs and cats living together. It’s mass hysteria.
Claire, I hope your opening sentence was hyperbolic on purpose. Because, otherwise, it sounds like you aren’t thinking rationally. And I expect people who are a good deal smarter than me to think rationally.
The campaign might have been racist, but I don’t feel that voters are racist if they want to control immigration, to keep it to a level that communities can handle well (financially and socially) and not be overwhelmed.
Don’t worry about it – you’re all figments of my imagination anyway.
Which makes me wonder why I’m not getting more likes – do I not like myself? I’ll be back, I need to consult my therapist.
Global financial collapse – think tank workers hardest hit.
I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.
Only British citizens were allowed to vote, so no.
Oh I do love a good case of collateral damage. Thanks, Pseudo.
I am enjoying seeing all the newscasters apoplectic.
I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.
What does one have to do with the other?
I don’t buy the argument that Brexit means a de-evolution for the other constituent parts of the UK. That’s just politicians being opportunistic and fear-mongers peddling their wares.
Scottish independence lost the vote — a vote by Scots only — by roughly 10 percentage points, 2 years ago. That was a decisive loss for the Scottish independence group, and one that leaves no moral argument for another one soon. There is no reason why a Tory government is going to give them another referendum anytime soon, unless they have a legal obligation, or England decides it wants to be rid of their socialist neighbors to the north. Labor definitely will not, because they will be destroyed if they lose the Scottish vote. The practical argument (as opposed to the emotional one) for an independent Scotland is even weaker now.
Northern Ireland went leave, but a look at the counties sees a variance in that, so it’s not uniform. The Northern Irish have wanted to stay in the UK, that’s why all the IRA terrorism of the past decades. There’s no emotional reason now to leave. Will there be an economic one? More likely not in the long term.
Wales? Well Wales is split too on leave/remain. So there’s no overwhelming push there one way or the other.
If the reduction in EU regs give Britain the boost that it should, then an economically strong UK will make the constituent parts all the more desirous to remain a union. London is the world’s financial capital, thanks to the self-inflicted wounds of Sarbox by the US. Fewer regulations, not more will only strengthen that position. Furthermore, the problems in Europe are going to make London even more of a safe-haven for European money.
The EU — driven by France and Germany — does not show that it has any grasp as to why it’s in the sorry state it finds itself. Or, if it does, it does not show itself to be willing to eat the humble crow needed to fix its mistakes.
What really struck me, is that this was the first time in decades that I recall seeing Britons flying the Union Jack in a patriotic way like Americans do. Sure it’s flown for official reasons, but not much voluntarily as a matter of personal pride. Heretofore, that’s been reserved for the national flags, the crosses of St. George, St. Andrew, etc. I think it’s telling that the Union Jack is flying on the backs of personal cars like you see Old Glory in red states in the US.
So Briton handed the EU it’s head on the feast day of St John the Baptist.
I’m uncomfortable with purity tests for something which is a birthright.