What Happens Brex’t?

 

2d7c08db-9d87-43ce-921f-513acca86f7e-2060x1236Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away. Quite a day’s work.

A striking aspect of the results is the extent to which the vote represents a victory of the old over the young. “Young voters wanted Brexit the least,” as the Mirror put it, “and will have to live with it the longest.”

The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

Brexiters were led to victory in the referendum overnight by triumphing in Tory shires and Old Labour heartlands in Wales and the north of England.

But the Kingdom is no longer United after London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backed Remain.

The more damaging legacy, however, could be the staggering difference in how people of different ages [voted].

The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “Young people voted to remain by a considerable margin, but were outvoted. They were voting for their future, yet it has been taken from them.”

I hope that the optimists are proven right and that this is the first day of a bright new future for Britain and Europe. But unless it is — and unless the gain that justifies the pain comes sooner, rather than later — Britain (or what’s left of it) will experience an unprecedented generational war. Or at least, I’m racking my mind, and I can’t think of a precedent, can you?

 I’m so angry. A generation given everything: Free education, golden pensions, social mobility have voted to strip my generation’s future.

The pain will certainly be acute in the immediate term.

Now we’ll watch Europe’s biggest divorce case since Henry VIII. I posted this a few months ago, but it’s worth dusting off and watching again. This is from Open Europe’s simulation post-Brexit negotiations. Former Chancellor Norman Lamont is playing the role of the UK:

As someone who wishes Britain and Europe well, I hope very much that Britain withdraws in an orderly way and recovers as quickly as possible, leaving behind a Europe that’s better for the experience. I hope the rest of the EU learns and benefits from crisis and failure. And if it neither learns nor survives, I hope Europe’s reversion to a gaggle of fractious, quarreling states goes better than history would indicate.

Whatever happens, I’ll report. If you make a contribution this week, it will be earmarked for a chapter of Brave New World about Brexit and its consequences. Please contribute! This story is getting more and more interesting by the day — but I’m still well away from the goal.

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  1. Miffed White Male Member
    Miffed White Male
    @MiffedWhiteMale

    Gaby Charing: Daniel Hannan had said anyone expecting a fall in immigration will be disappointed.

    Then the people will have to try something else.

    And if that doesn’t work, then they’ll try something else.

    Eventually, the government will have to listen to the desires of the people not to be displaced.

    • #61
  2. Old Bathos Moderator
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    I am enjoying the whingeing in the Guardian about not recognizing their country this morning.  Funny that the elite left decries “divisiveness” when disagreements with their agenda become overt but don’t mind openly stomping on traditionalist sensibilities at every turn.  The people who routinely mock and condescend now detect “hate” all ’round.  Maybe it’s just a back at ‘ya, you twits.  The ‘toffs and suckers’ coalition just lost a big one. Cheers.

    • #62
  3. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Gaby Charing:Thank you for your good wishes, but this vote is a disaster. By 7am this morning, Nigel Farage had admitted there won’t be £350m a week for the National Health Service (one of Leave’s main claims) and Daniel Hannan had said anyone expecting a fall in immigration will be disappointed. Is that a record for broken promises? The Leave campaign was populist and racist, and it is to my country’s eternal shame that so many people fell for it. The poorest among them will now pay a terrible price, and I fear that as the economy sinks, they will turn to extremists of left and right.

    There is another divide among English voters: London v the rest. London subsidises the rest of the UK very heavily. Expect some fireworks now as London kicks up a huge fuss.

    I’m just tossing this in here. Forgive me if I don’t respond to comments. I’m too preoccupied. And yes, I’m eating humble pie. I called it completely wrong. I’ve learned something, just not sure yet quite what.

    What’s that British expression?  “It’s early days.”  I know it’s hard when you’re at the center of the whirlwind, but step back and think about what’s really happened, what’s really about to happen, and the timeframe it will play out over.  And for god sakes turn off the TV.  Those people are in the business of whipping up panic.

    • #63
  4. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    To a certain extent, the European Union was a scam by France to elevate itself over the UK and Germany.

    They used resentment against Germany starting WW2 to keep Germany in check. They used resentment against the UK and US winning it to keep the UK in check.

    Sans the UK, it will be harder to keep Germany in check.

    • #64
  5. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Duplicate post

    • #65
  6. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Zafar:

    Arahant:

    Zafar: The people as they are make up a country, not the people as one would have them be (politically, or culturally or ethnically).

    A country and a nation are not the same thing.

    That’s true. But Britain was formed by far more than just what happened in the British Isles. It’s not always comfortable, but the Empire and its aftermath is part of what makes them who they are.

    I’d say the same about France. (Or Turkey.) It’s not like being Germany or Denmark.

    • #66
  7. Larry3435 Member
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    Zafar:

    Kozak:Question. Are people who want live under Sharia rule “British” in any real sense of the word?

    In the political sense demonstrably yes – they can vote.

    Because I don’t consider those who want Sharia over our Constitution “Americans”.

    The people as they are make up a country, not the people as one would have them be (politically, or culturally or ethnically).

    It has always been my belief that what makes an “American” is not an accident of geographic location, but rather a belief in a certain set of principles.  These include separation of church and state, freedom of religion and speech, equality under the law for all citizens (including women), and recognition that the only legitimate function of government is to secure the rights of citizens to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness.  All of these principles are fundamentally inconsistent with Sharia law and with the belief system of Islam generally.

    Any Muslim who is willing to adopt these American principles, and recognize them as taking precedence over the view that government’s role is to impose submission to the Will of Allah on its subjects, is welcome to be an American.  But it has turned out that not all Muslims who come to the United States are willing to do that.

    • #67
  8. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Zafar:

    Zafar:

    Arahant:

    Zafar: The people as they are make up a country, not the people as one would have them be (politically, or culturally or ethnically).

    A country and a nation are not the same thing.

    That’s true. But Britain was formed by far more than just what happened in the British Isles. It’s not always comfortable, but the Empire and its aftermath is part of what makes them who they are.

    I’d say the same about France. (Or Turkey.) It’s not like being Germany or Denmark.

    Quoting yourself? ;^D I guess that’s one way to emphasize your point.

    • #68
  9. Robert Zubrin Inactive
    Robert Zubrin
    @RobertZubrin

    There is potential for a lot of damage here, particularly if the EU bureaucrats play hardball on trade to try to prevent others from leaving. That could lead to a collapse of the European economy, with worldwide effects. What is needed is a restoration of the Common Market, with countries outside the EU, for example the UK, allowed to be members, alongside the EU. A European free trade zone is necessary, and, aside from colossal  arrogance, there is no reason why the EU needs to regulate the internal affairs of countries that it trades with.

    Hopefully sanity will prevail.

    • #69
  10. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Arahant:

    Quoting yourself? ;^D I guess that’s one way to emphasize your point.

    This monster ego….it’s a trial. I’ll go back and delete the unedited one.

    • #70
  11. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Larry3435:

    Zafar:

    Kozak:Question. Are people who want live under Sharia rule “British” in any real sense of the word?

    In the political sense demonstrably yes – they can vote.

    Because I don’t consider those who want Sharia over our Constitution “Americans”.

    The people as they are make up a country, not the people as one would have them be (politically, or culturally or ethnically).

    It has always been my belief that what makes an “American” is not an accident of geographic location, but rather a belief in a certain set of principles. These include separation of church and state, freedom of religion and speech, equality under the law for all citizens (including women), and recognition that the only legitimate function of government is to secure the rights of citizens to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness. All of these principles are fundamentally inconsistent with Sharia law and with the belief system of Islam generally.

    Unfortunately, they’re now inconsistent with American law too.  (But that’s an aside, back to Brexit!)

    • #71
  12. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Robert Zubrin: Hopefully sanity will prevail.

    But what does history suggest?

    • #72
  13. Amy Schley Moderator
    Amy Schley
    @AmySchley

    ctlaw:To a certain extent, the European Union was a scam by France to elevate itself over the UK and Germany.

    They used resentment against Germany starting WW2 to keep Germany in check. They used resentment against the UK and US winning it to keep the UK in check.

    Sans the UK, it will be harder to keep Germany in check.

    • #73
  14. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Larry3435:

    It has always been my belief that what makes an “American” is not an accident of geographic location, but rather a belief in a certain set of principles. These include separation of church and state, freedom of religion and speech, equality under the law for all citizens (including women), and recognition that the only legitimate function of government is to secure the rights of citizens to life, liberty, property, and the pursuit of happiness. All of these principles are fundamentally inconsistent with Sharia law and with the belief system of Islam generally.

    But a lot of them are consistent with the civil religion of France (for example), while some of them (the only legitimate function of government etc.) are clearly not part of the world view of many Americans.

    It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life.  Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs?  (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    Honestly, I think American identy is more organic and less strictly ideological than that.

    • #74
  15. Amy Schley Moderator
    Amy Schley
    @AmySchley

    • #75
  16. La Tapada Member
    La Tapada
    @LaTapada

    The lynchpin of the Remain campaign was Project Fear, a concerted effort by the powers-that-be to terrify voters with the allegedly dire consequences of a Leave vote.

    I heard one pundit say that there was a large contingent of British voters who wanted Leave but were going to vote Remain because they were afraid of the potential instability of Leave. To me that means that there might be many more pro-Leave people than the vote shows.

    • #76
  17. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Contracepting and aborting yourself out of existence and trying to plug the hole with please look away and ignore the rapes immigration policies apparently didn’t appeal to a majority of Britons.

    • #77
  18. Patrickb63 Coolidge
    Patrickb63
    @Patrickb63

    “Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away.”

    Dogs and cats living together.  It’s mass hysteria.

    Claire, I hope your opening sentence was hyperbolic on purpose.  Because, otherwise, it sounds like you aren’t thinking rationally.  And I expect people who are a good deal smarter than me to think rationally.

    • #78
  19. La Tapada Member
    La Tapada
    @LaTapada

    Gaby Charing:The Leave campaign was populist and racist…

    The campaign might have been racist, but I don’t feel that voters are racist if they want to control immigration, to keep it to a level that communities can handle well (financially and socially) and not be overwhelmed.

    • #79
  20. Austin Murrey Inactive
    Austin Murrey
    @AustinMurrey

    Patrickb63: And I expect people who are a good deal smarter than me to think rationally.

    Don’t worry about it – you’re all figments of my imagination anyway.

    Which makes me wonder why I’m not getting more likes – do I not like myself? I’ll be back, I need to consult my therapist.

    • #80
  21. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Global financial collapse – think tank workers hardest hit.

    • #81
  22. Larry3435 Member
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true.  Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart.  He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela.  And Bernie knows this.  Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed.  Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    • #82
  23. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Editor
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Guruforhire:The young are most likely to not be British….

    Only British citizens were allowed to vote, so no.

    • #83
  24. Sandy Member
    Sandy
    @Sandy

    Pseudodionysius:Global financial collapse – think tank workers hardest hit.

    Oh I do love a good case of collateral damage.  Thanks, Pseudo.

    • #84
  25. La Tapada Member
    La Tapada
    @LaTapada

    I am enjoying seeing all the newscasters apoplectic.

    • #85
  26. Liz Member
    Liz
    @Liz

    Larry3435:

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.

    • #86
  27. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    Guruforhire:The young are most likely to not be British….

    Only British citizens were allowed to vote, so no.

    What does one have to do with the other?

    • #87
  28. No Caesar Thatcher
    No Caesar
    @NoCaesar

    I don’t buy the argument that Brexit means a de-evolution for the other constituent parts of the UK.  That’s just politicians being opportunistic and fear-mongers peddling their wares.

    Scottish independence lost the vote — a vote by Scots only — by roughly 10 percentage points, 2 years ago.  That was a decisive loss for the Scottish independence group, and one that leaves no moral argument for another one soon.  There is no reason why a Tory government is going to give them another referendum anytime soon, unless they have a legal obligation, or England decides it wants to be rid of their socialist neighbors to the north.  Labor definitely will not, because they will be destroyed if they lose the Scottish vote.  The practical argument (as opposed to the emotional one) for an independent Scotland is even weaker now.

    Northern Ireland went leave, but a look at the counties sees a variance in that, so it’s not uniform.  The Northern Irish have wanted to stay in the UK, that’s why all the IRA terrorism of the past decades.  There’s no emotional reason now to leave.  Will there be an economic one?  More likely not in the long term.

    Wales?  Well Wales is split too on leave/remain.  So there’s no overwhelming push there one way or the other.

    If the reduction in EU regs give Britain the boost that it should, then an economically strong UK will make the constituent parts all the more desirous to remain a union.  London is the world’s financial capital, thanks to the self-inflicted wounds of Sarbox by the US.  Fewer regulations, not more will only strengthen that position.  Furthermore, the problems in Europe are going to make London even more of a safe-haven for European money.

    The EU — driven by France and Germany — does not show that it has any grasp as to why it’s in the sorry state it finds itself.  Or, if it does, it does not show itself to be willing to eat the humble crow needed to fix its mistakes.

    What really struck me, is that this was the first time in decades that I recall seeing Britons flying the Union Jack in a patriotic way like Americans do.  Sure it’s flown for official reasons, but not much voluntarily as a matter of personal pride.  Heretofore, that’s been reserved for the national flags, the crosses of St. George, St. Andrew, etc.  I think it’s telling that the Union Jack is flying on the backs of personal cars like you see Old Glory in red states in the US.

    • #88
  29. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    So Briton handed the EU it’s head on the feast day of St John the Baptist.

    • #89
  30. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Liz:

    Larry3435:

    Zafar: It might be how you would prefer to define Americans, but I don’t think it actually works to do that in real life. Unless Bernie Sanders is not really an American because of his beliefs? (Which is a disturbing pov.)

    I have no idea why that would be disturbing, but it is unquestionably true. Bernie Sanders is an American citizen, but he is not an American at heart. He would be a much better fit in the Soviet Union or, that monstrosity having been thrown onto the trash heap of history, in Cuba or Venezuela. And Bernie knows this. Bernie would be the first to tell you that his goal is a “political revolution” that would end the United States as it has existed. Bernie has the right to believe this, and to say so, but by any standard that matters he is not an American.

    I agree with Larry. I also don’t see what is disturbing, or even surprising about this point of view, as it is fundamentally conservative.

    I’m uncomfortable with purity tests for something which is a birthright.

    • #90
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