What Happens Brex’t?

 

2d7c08db-9d87-43ce-921f-513acca86f7e-2060x1236Global financial panic, Sterling collapsing, and Scotland — possibly Northern Ireland, too — apt to break away. Quite a day’s work.

A striking aspect of the results is the extent to which the vote represents a victory of the old over the young. “Young voters wanted Brexit the least,” as the Mirror put it, “and will have to live with it the longest.”

The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

Brexiters were led to victory in the referendum overnight by triumphing in Tory shires and Old Labour heartlands in Wales and the north of England.

But the Kingdom is no longer United after London, Scotland and Northern Ireland all backed Remain.

The more damaging legacy, however, could be the staggering difference in how people of different ages [voted].

The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

Lib Dem leader Tim Farron said: “Young people voted to remain by a considerable margin, but were outvoted. They were voting for their future, yet it has been taken from them.”

I hope that the optimists are proven right and that this is the first day of a bright new future for Britain and Europe. But unless it is — and unless the gain that justifies the pain comes sooner, rather than later — Britain (or what’s left of it) will experience an unprecedented generational war. Or at least, I’m racking my mind, and I can’t think of a precedent, can you?

 I’m so angry. A generation given everything: Free education, golden pensions, social mobility have voted to strip my generation’s future.

The pain will certainly be acute in the immediate term.

Now we’ll watch Europe’s biggest divorce case since Henry VIII. I posted this a few months ago, but it’s worth dusting off and watching again. This is from Open Europe’s simulation post-Brexit negotiations. Former Chancellor Norman Lamont is playing the role of the UK:

As someone who wishes Britain and Europe well, I hope very much that Britain withdraws in an orderly way and recovers as quickly as possible, leaving behind a Europe that’s better for the experience. I hope the rest of the EU learns and benefits from crisis and failure. And if it neither learns nor survives, I hope Europe’s reversion to a gaggle of fractious, quarreling states goes better than history would indicate.

Whatever happens, I’ll report. If you make a contribution this week, it will be earmarked for a chapter of Brave New World about Brexit and its consequences. Please contribute! This story is getting more and more interesting by the day — but I’m still well away from the goal.

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  1. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    Zafar:

    Kozak:

    Guruforhire:The young are most likely to not be British….

    Shhhhhh! That’s secret…..

    British doesn’t mean white.

    -I’ve- got family living in britian.  They aren’t british, their kids aren’t british.

    • #31
  2. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Guruforhire:

    -I’ve- got family living in britian. They aren’t british, their kids aren’t british.

    If they can vote, why not?

    • #32
  3. Liz Member
    Liz
    @Liz

    J Climacus: I find the result thrilling. All the European, British – elites with a vested interest in the status quo – the EU bureaucracy, the IMF, the European Central Bank, the labor unions, David Cameron and even Barack Obama (what business is it of his), buried the British voter with an avalanche of propaganda in favor of Remain. But the ordinary Brit refused to be cowed and demanded his sovereign rights be returned to him from Brussels. As James Delingpole says – Britain’s own Independence Day. Good for them.

    Three cheers for old Blighty!

    • #33
  4. Austin Murrey Inactive
    Austin Murrey
    @AustinMurrey

    Oh good, my computer is working.

    For a second there I thought I got redirected to the Guardian.

    • #34
  5. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Zafar:

    Guruforhire:

    -I’ve- got family living in britian. They aren’t british, their kids aren’t british.

    If they can vote, why not?

    Because if a cat has kittens in the oven, you don’t call them cookies?

    • #35
  6. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Austin Murrey: For a second there I thought I got redirected to the Guardian.

    No, the comment section is a bit different.

    • #36
  7. Viator Inactive
    Viator
    @Viator

    Kozak:

    Viator:Nicola Sturgeon, speaking now, is going full Scotixt.

    So it’s a win- win for the English.

    Well, England certainly would be “conservative” if it lost leftist Scotland.  The SNP and Sinn Fein both seem very upset about yesterday’s results. Labor rank and file on the other hand seems to have voted leave in surprising numbers. As well as a victory for democracy Brexit may trigger a burst of devolution. Would Scexit be a better word? Labor just tabled a vote of no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn. Odd that the UK young who voted overwhelmingly remain and who like all western young love localism equally support centralism just like Bernie’s supporters.

    • #37
  8. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Arahant:

    Zafar:

    Guruforhire:

    -I’ve- got family living in britian. They aren’t british, their kids aren’t british.

    If they can vote, why not?

    Because if a cat has kittens in the oven, you don’t call them cookies?

    Ha! I wouldn’t call them loaves of bread either.  But we’re talking about people, and there are more ways of being British than being English, Scottish or Irish (or Manx).

    • #38
  9. Sandy Member
    Sandy
    @Sandy

    She:Well.

    I’m surprised.

    I thought the boneless wonders would, in the end, prevail.

    I have to confess that my first thoughts channeled, of all people, Michelle Obama. “For the first time in my adult life, I’m proud . . .”

    Perhaps best not.

    My thoughts have been on the speech of the dying John of Gaunt in Richard II (“This blessed plot, this earth, this realm, this England”in which Shakespeare describes so well the England that has been hamstrung by the EU:

    “That England, that was wont to conquer others, Hath made a shameful conquest of itself.”

    Bravo, Brits!  Independence Day, indeed.

    • #39
  10. DialMforMurder Inactive
    DialMforMurder
    @DialMforMurder

    Yes and crisis equals opportunity and all that. It’s a victory for free people against globalist elitist leftist beaurocracy! Party time!

    • #40
  11. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    Zafar:

    Arahant:

    Zafar:

    Guruforhire:

    -I’ve- got family living in britian. They aren’t british, their kids aren’t british.

    If they can vote, why not?

    Because if a cat has kittens in the oven, you don’t call them cookies?

    Ha! I wouldn’t call them loaves of bread either. But we’re talking about people, and there are more ways of being British than being English, Scottish or Irish (or Manx).

    Exactly, we are talking about people.  Geographic location and paperwork doesn’t make one part of a people or a nation.  It just means you live somewhere and did paperwork.

    • #41
  12. Gaby Charing Inactive
    Gaby Charing
    @GabyCharing

    Thank you for your good wishes, but this vote is a disaster. By 7am this morning, Nigel Farage had admitted there won’t be £350m a week for the National Health Service (one of Leave’s main claims) and Daniel Hannan had said anyone expecting a fall in immigration will be disappointed. Is that a record for broken promises? The Leave campaign was populist and racist, and it is to my country’s eternal shame that so many people fell for it. The poorest among them will now pay a terrible price, and I fear that as the economy sinks, they will turn to extremists of left and right.

    There is another divide among English voters: London v the rest. London subsidises the rest of the UK very heavily. Expect some fireworks now as London kicks up a huge fuss.

    I’m just tossing this in here. Forgive me if I don’t respond to comments. I’m too preoccupied. And yes, I’m eating humble pie. I called it completely wrong. I’ve learned something, just not sure yet quite what.

    • #42
  13. She Member
    She
    @She

    Austin Murrey:Oh good, my computer is working.

    For a second there I thought I got redirected to the Guardian.

    Heaven forfend.

    No one in my family reads The Guardian. We are strictly Telegraph people.

    And that, only after it’s been ironed by the staff.

    • #43
  14. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Zafar: Ha! I wouldn’t call them loaves of bread either. But we’re talking about people, and there are more ways of being British than being English, Scottish or Irish (or Manx).

    Oh, agreed. But I’m not much of a believer in automatic citizenship, either, nor of people voting who are not citizens/subjects of the government in question. If someone is assimilated as British (or American or Australian, etc.), sure. But people who happen to live there in an isolated community where they keep to non-Western and non-British values? I’m a bit skeptical. I say they need to kick the Romans out.

    • #44
  15. Kozak Member
    Kozak
    @Kozak

    Zafar:

    Liz:

    Zafar:

    Kozak:

    Guruforhire:The young are most likely to not be British….

    Shhhhhh! That’s secret…..

    British doesn’t mean white.

    Seems a little unfair. Plenty of immigrants to the UK are white, eastern Europeans. Why do you assume they were talking about race?

    Fair enough.

    Kozak, Guru – did you mean migrants from Poland who have managed to get UK citizenship, or did you mean migrants from the new Commonwealth, from places like Nigeria, Pakistan and Jamaica?

    Edit: from here:

    chart

    Both. All.

    Question. Are people who want live under Sharia rule “British” in any real sense of the word?

    Because I don’t consider those who want Sharia over our Constitution  “Americans”.

    • #45
  16. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Guruforhire:

    Exactly, we are talking about people. Geographic location and paperwork doesn’t make one part of a people or a nation. It just means you live somewhere and did paperwork.

    If you’re born and grow up in a place, and live there, then you’re part of what makes that place that place.  Or so it seems to me.  Peace.

    • #46
  17. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    Viator: Would Scexit be a better word?

    Scoot!

    • #47
  18. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Gaby Charing:Thank you for your good wishes, but this vote is a disaster. By 7am this morning, Nigel Farage had admitted there won’t be £350m a week for the National Health Service (one of Leave’s main claims) and Daniel Hannan had said anyone expecting a fall in immigration will be disappointed. Is that a record for broken promises? The Leave campaign was populist and racist, and it is to my country’s eternal shame that so many people fell for it. The poorest among them will now pay a terrible price, and I fear that as the economy sinks, they will turn to extremists of left and right.

    There is another divide among English voters: London v the rest. London subsidises the rest of the UK very heavily. Expect some fireworks now as London kicks up a huge fuss.

    I’m just tossing this in here. Forgive me if I don’t respond to comments. I’m too preoccupied. And yes, I’m eating humble pie. I called it completely wrong. I’ve learned something, just not sure yet quite what.

    I think you and I are learning the same thing.

    Your countrymen have the most remarkable ability to hide their intentions and lie to pollsters while smiling.

    I’ve never seen anything like what has taken place there in recent elections. Polls, including private exit polls completely wrong.

    Your thoughts?

    • #48
  19. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Kozak:

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.: The final YouGov poll before the referendum showed 72% of 18 to 24-year-olds backed a Remain vote – with just 19% backing Brexit.

    Cause 18-24 ear olds are known for their wisdom and ability in making important life decisions. Why Labour is pushing to give 12 year olds the vote…..

    And, on average, that generation is not even physically vigorous.

    • #49
  20. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    BrentB67:hink you and I are learning the same thing.

    Your countrymen have the most remarkable ability to hide their intentions and lie to pollsters while smiling.

    I’ve never seen anything like what has taken place there in recent elections. Polls, including private exit polls completely wrong.

    Your thoughts?

    Social acceptability bias is a known thing.

    • #50
  21. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    Old Bathos:The UK and the EU countries need each other as markets. The negotiation of any new rules needed should be easy. British tourists will still be welcome. Will the younger generation of Brits go about apologizing to nationless Europeans for being British?

    Oh they won’t be easy.  Nothing ever is and initially Germany/France will be a little petulant and looking to make an example of the UK — pour encourager les autres.  They’ve got two years (or more) though so over time tempers will fade (as will the current panic) and more than likely a new modus vivendi based on mutual benefit will be worked out.  Nobody wins from putting up a wall.

    By the way, I’m not even sure the UK will actually leave.  Europe has a history of disregarding referendums like this — forcing the plebes to redo them until they get them right.  And here you could almost see how that would work.  With the new leverage of a “leave” vote, Europe takes the negotiations Cameron tried to have before the vote seriously and makes enough accommodations to justify a new UK vote on membership under new “special membership” terms.  Might not happen.  But it’s not the farthest fetched scenario either.

    Always remember, almost nothing is permanent.  What is done today can be undone tomorrow.

    • #51
  22. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Good Morning Claire,

    I’ve got to run to work. I was aware of the victory when I went to sleep. Waking up to Cameron stepping down, well it just doesn’t get better than that. Brexit Baby!

    Here’s a little tune for the day.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #52
  23. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Kozak:Question. Are people who want live under Sharia rule “British” in any real sense of the word?

    In the political sense demonstrably yes – they can vote.

    Because I don’t consider those who want Sharia over our Constitution “Americans”.

    The people as they are make up a country, not the people as one would have them be (politically, or culturally or ethnically).

    • #53
  24. Larry3435 Member
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    I agree with those who have opined that this will be a long term win for the Brits.  Short term, I wouldn’t dare predict the consequences, except for one:  Obama will (within an hour or three) make a speech scolding the British people, in his usual pompous, pedantic, and condescending language.  I have an ongoing debate with myself as to which bothers me more:  The way that Obama always thinks that he is the smartest one in the room, or the way that Obama is actually always the dumbest one in the room.

    • #54
  25. Tony Martyr Member
    Tony Martyr
    @TonyMartyr

    Claire, what you need is a cup of tea, a Bex and a good lie down.

    • #55
  26. J Climacus Member
    J Climacus
    @JClimacus

    Gaby Charing:There is another divide among English voters: London v the rest. London subsidises the rest of the UK very heavily. Expect some fireworks now as London kicks up a huge fuss.

    Because London is crushed it can’t now subsidize Athens, Milan, Lisbon and Barcelona as well as the UK?

    • #56
  27. J Climacus Member
    J Climacus
    @JClimacus

    Larry3435:I agree with those who have opined that this will be a long term win for the Brits. Short term, I wouldn’t dare predict the consequences, except for one: Obama will (within an hour or three) make a speech scolding the British people, in his usual pompous, pedantic, and condescending language. I have an ongoing debate with myself as to which bothers me more: The way that Obama always thinks that he is the smartest one in the room, or the way that Obama is actually always the dumbest one in the room.

    We can take some satisfaction in the likelihood that Obama’s scolding British voters the last time he was there contributed to the Brexit victory.

    • #57
  28. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Cato Rand: Nothing ever is and initially Germany/France will be a little petulant

    No, they are grown-ups, are they not? They would never act out of petulance.

    and looking to make an example of the UK — pour encourager les autres.

    Cato, never has that quote ever been so brilliantly applied in such an inappropriate way. Brilliant!

    • #58
  29. Cato Rand Inactive
    Cato Rand
    @CatoRand

    J Climacus:

    The pain will certainly be acute.

    Why must that be? The process of exit has not been defined. For now, nothing changes. Why must a gradual process of exit from the EU be traumatic?

    This ^

    I’m a little disappointed to see Claire just parroting the panic being stoked by the left.  The world did not change overnight.  The UK just voted to begin the process of renegotiating its relationship with the rest of Europe.  The process will be long, and the outcome will be driven by each parties perceived self-interest.  There is much mutual benefit and mutual dependence underlying the relationship and that underlying reality can be expected to assert itself.

    • #59
  30. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Zafar: The people as they are make up a country, not the people as one would have them be (politically, or culturally or ethnically).

    A country and a nation are not the same thing.

    • #60
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