One Jew in Iran, One Supreme Leader, and One Very Bad Deal

 
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Yes, that’s me, at the Supreme Leader’s house on election day, watching him cast the first vote in the 2016 Elections. An absurd story for another post…

So I went to Iran. Twice. The first time to visit with the Jewish community there, to go on a religious pilgrimage to the city of Hamedan to visit the graves of Queen Esther and Mordechai, and to see for myself this country that is at the forefront of my life, as a political being, and as a Jew.

I got invited back. Not sure why, not sure how, but I got invited back to cover the Iranian elections to the Parliament and the Assembly of Experts, and as a journalist I could not pass up the opportunity, even though I knew little of what I was about to see was reality in any manner known to me.

The days leading up to the election I spent interviewing members of Parliament, both Principalist (conservative) and Reformist (“moderate”) candidates and voters on the streets of Tehran, and a picture began to take shape, of a nation in far less turmoil than President Obama wishes to believe.

One of the more interesting meetings I had during the 18 days I spent in Iran was with Dr. Moshen Keshvari, one of the top principalist candidates for Parliament. I asked Dr. Keshvari if the Iran Deal influences the election, and his answer was surprisingly unabashed.

“These are uncertain times, full of threats from inside and outside the country, and we expect a record turnout because of it. People either want us, who will safeguard Iranian values and meet American promises with the suspicion it deserves, or they will choose the Reformists who recklessly trust America and the West.”

When I point out to Dr. Keshvari that many in America and the West believe that Iran was the winner in the 5+1 deal and that Obama fully conceded to Iranian terms he smiles and says, “I agree.” I laugh in astonishment at his honesty and ask him if he worries about President Obama’s replacement or follows the American presidential elections where several Republican candidates have campaigned on overturning the deal, but at this he shrugs with apparent contentment.

“Believe me, Miss Rothstein. We are ready for whatever candidate is chosen, and we are prepared for one that rips up the deal. When he does we will produce … what do you call it … an ace up our sleeve.”

The doctor quickly adds that neither he nor Iran has a problem with the American people, but that the American governmental policy has always been one of deception and betrayal, and that one cannot expect Iran to welcome the new American approach without fear or suspicion after so many years of failed relations. “Its not as complicated as you think,” he says to me, “America just has to stop its constant propaganda and animosity against Iran, and then we will consider them an ally. Until then we will keep them at arm’s length and consider them with the utmost suspicion.”

Dr. Keshvari does not even pretend to have a partner in America, because he understands what President Obama does not. The deal proved a great success to not only Dr. Keshvari and his particular political allies, but to the entire establishment of Iran, and from what I gather from his answers there was little doubt on their end of the outcome, or winner, of this historical agreement.

“America needs us now, and we know it. The entire West needs someone to control the Middle East and keep ISIS and the barbarians at bay. They need us now, we do not need them, and like a small child we cannot be infected with the Western ideas because we have been inoculated.”

And this is what I saw, to a great extent, during my visit to this country that captured my heart and broke it at once; so filled with beautiful contradictions is Iran, and so far from what I expected. I saw how little consequence the Western world is to them all, from politicians to pedestrians, and how wrong President Obama is to believe that they want what we have or are striving to reach a point of Western-style democracy.

The animosity felt toward the US is palpable. In the murals I see, walking down the Tehran streets, calling for death to America and ridiculing Obama, picturing him next to famous historical tyrants. He may see himself as a difference-maker, a bridge builder and a symbol of hope and change — but here in the heart of the Middle East, that sentiment is very one-sided.

The Iran-Iraq war still represents a huge open wound to the people of Iran. Everyone I meet is in some way affected by it and on my third day in the country I am taken to the blood fountain in Tehran’s biggest cemetery. It has been dyed red, spouting “blood” in memory of the martyrs of the Iran-Iraq war, and my guide tells me how America abandoned Iran, how the world let them down, and how they will never again be vulnerable or weak. The Iran deal is seen as a part of strengthening against the West, not as a bridge built toward it. This is a way for Iran to gain power and independence and to challenge the US in terms of world power — not to become an ally to the same.

There is no reform here in the Western sense of the word, and even those most adamant about achieving change do not want a Western-style society. American culture is widely perceived as being a threat to all that is good and holy, causing breakdown of families and deterioration of societies, and the message pumped out by the regime for the past 37 years has been as effective as it has been clear — the two paths being resistance or death. This is not the view merely held by the regime, it is ingrained in the Iranian society. The picture put forth by the Obama administration, of a people dying to be Westernized, is simply not true. This is a country proud of its heritage and deeply defiant toward America, the nation they see as their moral and political opposite. After my time in Iran I see that we in the Western world have to relate to the Iranian regime, but I also see the fallacy of this deal in all its brutal clarity.

President Obama’s inflated self-image made him ignore the facts, the knowledge of history so necessary for any world leader, and he instead chose to believe that the Middle East would change according to his ideology — despite having centuries of empirical evidence that it would not.

The next President of the United States needs to be one who understands the Middle East, and most importantly has the modesty to learn and relate to history, rather than believe he is the only piece of history that matters. Because Iran, along with the few kingdoms, stands stable as an entity in the Middle East, we in the West need to relate to it rather than exclude it. But in so doing, we need to shake off the rose-colored glasses worn by the current administration and understand that it is balance of terror, and not brotherhood, that will define this relationship.

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. Wiley Inactive
    Wiley
    @Wiley

    Wonderful to have an inside report on Iran here on Ricochet. Thank you for your research and insights.

    • #1
  2. Wiley Inactive
    Wiley
    @Wiley

    One item I would like to hear more about, is how committed the Iranian people are to the vision of Islam the government pursues.

    • #2
  3. drlorentz Member
    drlorentz
    @drlorentz

    Annika Hernroth-Rothstein: “Believe me, Miss Rothstein. We are ready for whatever candidate is chosen, and we are prepared for one that rips up the deal. When he does we will produce … what do you call it … an ace up our sleeve.”

    The animosity felt toward the US is palpable. In the murals I see, walking down the Tehran streets, calling for death to America and ridiculing Obama, picturing him next to famous historical tyrants. He may see himself as a difference-maker, a bridge builder and a symbol of hope and change — but here in the heart of the Middle East, that sentiment is very one-sided.

    Fascinating insights.

    • #3
  4. Instugator Thatcher
    Instugator
    @Instugator

    Annika Hernroth-Rothstein: ridiculing Obama, picturing him next to famous historical tyrants. He may see himself as a difference-maker, a bridge builder and a symbol of hope and change — but here in the heart of the Middle East, that sentiment is very one-sided.

    On this, I find myself very much in agreement with the propaganda of Iran.

    Annika Hernroth-Rothstein: It has been dyed red, spouting “blood” in memory of the martyrs of the Iran-Iraq war, and my guide tells me how America abandoned Iran,

    What did they expect? They invaded America just the year before and the invasion was still ongoing when the Iran-Iraq war started.

    I do not understand this sentiment…

    Annika Hernroth-Rothstein: Because Iran, along with the few kingdoms, stands stable as an entity in the Middle East, we in the West need to relate to it rather than exclude it.

    Not being petulant, but my preferred foreign policy toward Iran would be to support the green revolution (or the ideological successor) and to otherwise ensure that the Iranian economy resembles the Great Recession.

    • #4
  5. Rodin Member
    Rodin
    @Rodin

    Important insights for us.

    • #5
  6. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Thanks again for this. Your daring helps us all.

    What you speak of is the clash of civilizations, as Huntington put it. The differences between Iran and Iraq might be substantial, but no more than the differences between Greece and Germany. Even their hated enemies are yet more similar to them than America.

    Sadly, while Western governments do not even respect the boundaries of their own nations, both politically and culturally, there is little hope that they will recognize the borders of Western civilization. Understanding others must follow understanding ourselves. The West is weakened by multiculturalism and fantasies of worldwide cooperation.

    • #6
  7. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Annika Hernroth-Rothstein:

    Because Iran, along with the few kingdoms, stands stable as an entity in the Middle East, we in the West need to relate to it rather than exclude it. But in so doing, we need to shake off the rose-colored glasses worn by the current administration and understand that it is balance of terror, and not brotherhood, that will define this relationship.

    Apart from keeping “ISIS and the barbarians at bay” do you see any other areas of common interest for Iran and the West – areas where they could, and should, cooperate to mutual benefit?

    What about areas where they are intrinsically in existential conflict – and by that I mean more than just disagreement, but where their core vital interests are in direct opposition?  Are there many, or any, such?

    I saw how little consequence the Western world is to them all, from politicians to pedestrians, and how wrong President Obama is to believe that they want what we have or are striving to reach a point of Western-style democracy.

    In that case what are realistic objectives for the West to pursue with Iran?  Was the Green Movement completely unrepresentative (too narrowly class bound) or has it been successfully repressed by the Govt?

    • #7
  8. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Well, this is somewhat different than my experience during the 22 years that I lived there. You might think that my views are colored by a life spent mostly among the educated and middle-class Iranians, but that doesn’t make those views unrepresentative. Why? First, because Iran has a fairly large urban middle class. It also has, for a country of its GDP per capita level, an unusually high ratio of college grads and current college students (second only to Israel in the Middle East; see: http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB89.pdf). The second reason is that the lower classes, while not necessarily pro-Western in their outlook, have done very poorly since the revolution and have grown extremely tired and suspicious of the combative, revolutionary rhetoric.

    The West actually features very prominently in many Iranians’ lives, partly because of their desire to emigrate. We have the highest brain drain rate in the world, and most urbanites already have friends or relatives living in the West. While I’m not under the illusion that Iran could transform to a Jeffersonian democracy overnight, I would describe the yearning for Western-style democracy as strong (but not always apparent, due to years of suppression and the existence of the option to emigrate).

    Continued…

    • #8
  9. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    The memory of the Iran-Iraq war does still linger, but many Iranians blame Khomeini for provoking Saddam in the first place and for refusing to accept his peace offer two years into the war. They also remember that Saddam’s main military backer was the Soviet Union. My own sense is that the younger generation doesn’t really care about it, and while there are families for whom this might still be an issue because they lost their loved ones in the war, they aren’t necessarily pro-regime. In fact, I have friends who lost a parent in the war and are extremely anti-regime, because they think the lives of their loved ones were wasted to preserve a tyranny.

    I wouldn’t say that there is an outpouring of love for the US and Israel; in America’s case, largely because of the events of 1953 (and NOT because of America’s support for the Shah later in the lead up to 1979); in Israel’s case, mostly because they’ve been fed a false historical narrative that leads them to view Israel as an occupying colonial entity. Still, there is a non-negligible minority who are pro-Israel just out of their hatred for the Islamists.

    Continued…

    • #9
  10. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    So, while we don’t exactly have a pro-West lovefest over there, there is no real desire for confrontation either. My own sense is that the vast majority of Iranians aren’t interested in regional dominance or a conflict with Israel. More than 30 years of living under tyranny and stale revolutionary rhetoric has made Iranians pragmatic and caused them to put aside their Manichean views of world affairs.

    • #10
  11. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Zafar:Was the Green Movement completely unrepresentative (too narrowly class bound) …?

    Zafar, there were 2-3 million people demonstrating in Tehran’s streets. It’s a city of 9 million. Some people are too young to demonstrate, some too old, and some too afraid (such as my own family) of being shot by snipers (which happened to a friend of mine)…

    • #11
  12. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Samizdat:

    Iran has…for a country of its GDP per capita level, an unusually high ratio of college grads and current college students (second only to Israel in the Middle East; see: http://www.brandeis.edu/crown/publications/meb/MEB89.pdf). The second reason is that the lower classes, while not necessarily pro-Western in their outlook, have done very poorly since the revolution and have grown extremely tired and suspicious of the combative, revolutionary rhetoric.

    Would you say that the need to get the economy moving and people employed (because the alternative causes social unrest) is a strong motivator for the current Iranian regime to engage peacefully with the West, keep to the terms of the nuclear deal and focus on economic growth?

    • #12
  13. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Samizdat:

    Zafar:Was the Green Movement completely unrepresentative (too narrowly class bound) …?

    Zafar, there were 2-3 million people demonstrating in Tehran’s streets. It’s a city of 9 million. Some people are too young to demonstrate, some are too old, and some are too afraid (such as my own family) of being shot by snipers (which happened to a friend of mine)…

    That’s heartening – personally I am a lot more sympa with the Green Movement crowd than not – but is Tehran a social and political outlier in Iran, or would you say it’s fairly representative?

    Also – I seem to recall that leaders of the Green Movement are still in jail/under house arrest, which the Government wouldn’t feel the need to do if they have negligible support or influence.

    • #13
  14. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Zafar:

    Would you say that the need to get the economy moving and people employed (because the alternative causes social unrest) is a strong motivator for the current Iranian regime to engage peacefully with the West, keep to the terms of the nuclear deal and focus on economic growth?

    It is definitely a motive, not because they care about the Iranian people (whom they consider to be cannon fodder), but because of their fear of massive social unrest, as you pointed out yourself.

    But that doesn’t mean that they won’t take advantage of the other side’s weakness if they see an opportunity. I think they were actually surprised by how much Obama caved in to their demands, because they were at their weakest point in recent history: cornered by the sanctions, the entire Middle East united against them, their only ally (Assad) bleeding badly, Hezbollah losing popularity due to its support for Assad, and their domestic support virtually non-existent. And they still are weak, with the sanctions relief being mostly offset by the collapse in oil prices…

    • #14
  15. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Zafar:That’s heartening – personally I am a lot more sympa with the Green Movement crowd than not – but is Tehran a social and political outlier in Iran, or would you say it’s fairly representative?

    Tehran is one of the most liberal cities in the country, but that doesn’t make the regime’s position any stronger in other major cities. The cities in the North (the Southern coast of the Caspian sea) are even more liberal [The North was the last region of Iran to be conquered by the Caliphate and has historically had a reputation for being liberal and secular.]. In the Persian-speaking heartland, cities such as Isfahan and Shiraz are almost as anti-regime as Tehran, even if somewhat more religious.

    The regime’s position in most of the remaining regions is even more precarious, where the anti-regime sentiment has a strong ethnic component to it. This includes the Turkish-speaking Azeris to the Northwest, the Kurds to the West, the Arabs in the Southwest, and the Baluch in the Southeast…

    • #15
  16. wilber forge Inactive
    wilber forge
    @wilberforge

    Just cut to the chase, what tack would the population move to with another governing body ? A great sense of unease seems clear.

    • #16
  17. donald todd Inactive
    donald todd
    @donaldtodd

    You noted that Iran felt let down by deception and betrayal of the US.  Was any mention given regarding the treatment of the members of the US Embassy by the people who replaced the shah?

    Was any weight given to the fact that in the Iran/Iraq War the Iranians pushed their young men out to find mines with their feet?

    Does the Iranian leadership take credit for their own misdeeds?

    Propaganda is a wonderful thing and for this crew it seems to be an art form.

    • #17
  18. donald todd Inactive
    donald todd
    @donaldtodd

    We have branded Iran one of the axis of evil, credited them with acts of terror, and implicated them in an attempted killing in Washington DC.   I wouldn’t expect them to take credit for this in an interview with a journalist, but might the locals you interviewed have no knowledge of what Iran is deemed responsible for?

    • #18
  19. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    donald todd:We have branded Iran one of the axis of evil, credited them with acts of terror, and implicated them in an attempted killing in Washington DC. I wouldn’t expect them to take credit for this in an interview with a journalist, but might the locals you interviewed have no knowledge of what Iran is deemed responsible for?

    They may be deeply cynical about their own Government’s good intentions, but that doesn’t mean that they completely credit anybody’s else’s reporting either.

    I’d be interested in seeing what Samizdat has to say, but if Iran is anything like India the Western news sources (CNN, Fox) which report these things are seen as deeply biased, often ill informed and not above sacrificing accuracy to push a particular foreign policy position.

    • #19
  20. Skarv Inactive
    Skarv
    @Skarv

    Great post. Thank you.

    • #20
  21. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    anonymous:

    Annika Hernroth-Rothstein: here in the heart of the Middle East

    One quibble. Iran is on the eastern edge of what is usually considered the Middle East. It has been, since antiquity, distinct from the region due to ancestry, culture, and language.

    I learned many years ago that the three countries whose names end in “an” — Iran, Pakistan, and Afghanistan — were to be called the Near East.  That was before Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan joined the “an” party.

    Then a few years ago I was told that the terms Middle East and Near East are essentially interchangeable.  I like the old way better.

    • #21
  22. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    anonymous:This is a country of 77 million people (comparable to Germany, with 80 million), which considers itself a developed country with world-class technology and universities. As long as you spend your time in the big cities (Tehran, Isfahan, Shiraz, etc.) that is the perception you get as a visitor.

    However, the United States needs do what is best for the 99% of the world’s population that does not live in Iran.

    • #22
  23. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    I would very much like the US to follow the advice I reposted last year: air-drop millions of small arms into Iran, so that the populace, which has no armed means of resistance to the government today, can defend itself.

    The Green Revolution failed because the Iranian people had no weapons with which to combat the militia. We can fix that problem at a very low cost, and superb PR: Americans believe that people should have the ability to defend themselves against tyrannical regimes.

    • #23
  24. WillowSpring Member
    WillowSpring
    @WillowSpring

    This post – and the comments – are what makes Ricochet special for me.  Thanks to Anika, Samizdat and the others.

    • #24
  25. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    Fascinating. I know first-hand the desire for Western goods and products (a client is expanding their markets in Iran). Will the increase in consumerism benefit the geopolitical relationship of future generations?

    • #25
  26. Liz Member
    Liz
    @Liz

    David Sussman:Fascinating. I know first-hand the desire for Western goods and products (a client is expanding their markets in Iran). Will the increase in consumerism benefit the geopolitical relationship of future generations?

    I’ve been wondering how easing of sanctions will affect the hundreds of thousands of Iranian small retail business-owners. In any mall in Tehran, there are several stores calling themselves “Zara” or “Diesel” or “Massimo Dutti” or “IKEA.” They are not real Zara stores, but they do often have real Zara stuff; the owners go on buying trips abroad and bring the goods back into Iran, evading customs as they can. But now that Zara can open stores in Iran, what will these merchants do? How will the economy absorb them?

    More to your point, David, Iran is already awash in consumer goods from Apple to Samsung to GE to Marlboro cigs and French’s mustard to western clothing brands of every type. Iranians have long been living a lifestyle that would be recognizable to any westerner. But the government is another story.

    Also, I agree with everything Samizdat said. For every skeleton/American flag mural, there’s an Iranian rolling his eyes at it. The older generation remembers what Iran used to be and the younger generation can see on their iphones and flatscreens what it could be.

    • #26
  27. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Liz:The older generation remembers what Iran used to be and the younger generation can see on their iphones and flatscreens what it could be.

    I couldn’t have said it better myself!

    • #27
  28. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Liz:For every skeleton/American flag mural, there’s an Iranian rolling his eyes at it.

    Yep. For most Iranians, regime propaganda is like background noise. You just ignore it and go on with your life.

    • #28
  29. Samizdat Inactive
    Samizdat
    @Samizdat

    Zafar:I’d be interested in seeing what Samizdat has to say, but if Iran is anything like India the Western news sources (CNN, Fox) which report these things are seen as deeply biased, often ill informed and not above sacrificing accuracy to push a particular foreign policy position.

    CNN and FOX aren’t available in Iran. The Persian news services of the VOA (very anti-regime) and the BBC (moderately anti-regime) are very popular, but they are usually jammed. The internet is censored, but people always find ways of getting around it.

    Also, the existence of a large expat community is a very important factor in how Iranians view the world: Why would you trust regime propaganda when you have a cousin living in the US who tells you that things are much better in the West?

    • #29
  30. Liz Member
    Liz
    @Liz

    Samizdat:

    Zafar:I’d be interested in seeing what Samizdat has to say, but if Iran is anything like India the Western news sources (CNN, Fox) which report these things are seen as deeply biased, often ill informed and not above sacrificing accuracy to push a particular foreign policy position.

    CNN and FOX aren’t available in Iran. The Persian news services of the VOA (very anti-regime) and the BBC (moderately anti-regime) are very popular, but they are usually jammed. The internet is censored, but people always find ways of getting around it.

    Also, the existence of a large expat community is a very important factor in how Iranians view the world: Why would you trust regime propaganda when you have a cousin living in the US who tells you that things are much better in the West?

    My impression is that newer news services such as Manoto (anti-regime and possibly pro-Shah), are becoming even more popular in Iran. Does that sound true to you, Samizdat?

    • #30
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