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Snapshot from the Utah Caucus
I wanted to share this after returning from my local caucus. I won’t belabor the details, so here’s the quick takeaway: Senator Ted Cruz had a good night in my precinct — as he did statewide — fueled largely by the #NeverTrump movement; but, if the nomination’s not in hand by the convention, he might be in trouble. We had one person who spoke on behalf of Donald Trump, two who spoke for Governor John Kasich, and six who spoke for Cruz. But only three three of the pro-Cruz speakers were solidly in Cruz’s camp; the others were actually Kasich people encouraging votes for Cruz to stop the Trump Train.
If what’s happening in my precinct is at all representative of what’s going on elsewhere in the country, Cruz will have an even tougher time winning a contested convention than it might seem at first. Both of the state delegates my precinct elected said they were running because they wanted to be delegates to the National Convention, and they said they would support Senator Marco Rubio and Kasich (respectively) once they were freed to vote their minds after the first ballot.
I put myself forward as an alternative, not because I wanted to be a delegate, but because I thought Cruz supporters should be able to vote for someone who planned to support “their guy” at convention. It didn’t happen.
So hold on to your seats: If we hit a contested convention, the ride’s going to get really, really rocky.
Published in Politics
Wow. Thank you.
Oh, forgot to mention — we also had a birther. (Cruz -> Canadian -> ineligible). That floored me, because he’s a guy who’s been politically active in my precinct and district for as long as I can remember. I didn’t think he was the kind of man who’d be swayed by that kind of thing.
In my precinct we had 4 delegates selected solid for Cruz and 1 for Kasich. And then a nice question and answer session with Senator Mike Lee who was there to cast his votes.
I envy you. I just heard from my mom, whose precinct had 1 Cruz, 2 Kasich. Hopefully things state-wide are more like your precinct, Bob. I keep hoping there’s a way for this to be wrapped up before the convention, but it’s really not looking like it. From my point of view, the national convention delegate situation is looking like an absolute mess.
I wasn’t supposed to end the day feeling worse about the political situation, dangit.
Well if this somehow comes out Rubio at the convention I will eat my hat. But I will also laugh, and laugh, and laugh. It will also be the best hat I ever ate.
I hear a lot of the Trump delegates were picked as Cruzers once they were free to vote their consciences.
Between now and the convention even the delegates will be open to changing their minds.
All of this is assuming Trump falls short of 1237.
I expect to see delegates driving Rolls Royce’s between now and July.
Kind of makes me wish I was a delegate.
That is interesting, but is the reason we must stop bashing Cruz. We must try to start a bandwagon. His negatives come from those who fear he means what he says and they work because he isn’t handsome and doesn’t ooze charm. Let’s face it not being handsome or oozing charm isn’t a disqualifier, but being the smartest guy in the room isn’t either.
The fact is that any delegate who, after the first ballot, wants to independently vote for Kasich or Rubio, is just wasting their vote. And I don’t think they want to do that.
There could well be a groundswell for either one after the first ballot. But independent delegates going off the reservation? Pointless.
The convention will end with a nominee. If Trump does not have 1237, then I think Cruz or some white knight will be the candidate.
Do you think people would view attempted bribes by Trump in a favorable or unfavorable light?
And if Kasich wasn’t in the race, Utah might have gone 80%-85% Cruz?!
Yes, not many squishes in Utah. And look at the Democrat numbers, same there.
Madness.
Probably unfavorable, but the entertainment value would be epic.
I am not sure the bribery will be limited to the Trump campaign.
I thank Utahans for their strategic voting but I think it is too little too late. Cruz had to win AZ to pass Trump in the delegate count. That was the only scenario that doesn’t end with a split Republican party and a Hillary win. The convention is going to be interesting to watch, but there is no outcome of a contested convention that heals wounds rather than widens them.
I would not be so certain of the future. “Events, dear boy. Events.”
Indeed, that’s the nasty thing about the future, it’s really hard to predict. So getting Trump supporters is a challenge, we better start making it appear that Cruz is inevitable, the first best choice to beat Hillary and the one who can solve… name your Trump issue. Atmosphere matters, that’s why we have terms like bandwagon.
I’m still trying to figure out how that convention rule 40b works. See if this sounds right:
Assume Trump and Cruz are the only candidates who can demonstrate a majority of delegates in 8 states before the first ballot so they are the only names in nominations for the first ballot and that neither of them has a majority to seal the nomination
Does this mean that votes pledged and bound to other candidates at least through the first ballot cannot be cast on the first ballot at all?
If rule 40b stays in effect, no other candidate can be placed in nomination on any subsequent ballot without showing he/she has a majority of at least 8 states, so the delegates previously bound to other candidates may move to either Trump or Cruz to provide one of them with a majority and the nomination.
Help!
Edit: Answer to above question – it looks like Rule 16 would allow those delegates who were pledged to candidates who have withdrawn or suspended their campaigns to vote for other candidates who are in nomination on the ballot.