In a surprise move, Russia has announced that it will be withdrawing its troops from Syria. From the Guardian:

“I consider the objectives that have been set for the Defence Ministry to be generally accomplished,” Vladimir Putin announced matter-of-factly on Monday evening, announcing the imminent withdrawal of Russian troops from Syria.

… Putin’s announcement took military analysts by surprise: if Russia’s dramatic entry into Syria was presaged by a quiet but noticeable logistical build-up, nobody saw the exit coming, including those with close links to the military hierarchy.

Though what can be done can also be undone:

… it has been made clear that the Hemeimeem airbase outside Latakia from which Russia has launched its air raids will remain in use. It is not known how small the “small contingent” that will remain behind will be, and it will almost certainly still involve advanced air defence systems. Additionally, now the infrastructure is in place, nothing is to stop Russia from redeploying even more quickly and unexpectedly than in late September.

As for Russia’s objectives – although ISIS remains, and the Assad regime is “less than stable,”

“Nobody wanted to deal with Russia after Ukraine, and the goal of the Syria campaign was to force the west to deal with Russia again,” said independent military analyst Alexander Golts. “This has happened, and now they are getting out of the conflict with minimal losses. I think it’s a pretty brilliant tactical move.”

So — well played, Russia.

But what happens next in Syria?

Assad’s other BFF (uff! Iran of course!!! who else even takes his calls?) has also been trying to dial down the friendship. From a December 2015 article in The Times of Israel:

Iran has withdrawn most of the Revolutionary Guards fighters it deployed to Syria three months ago, Israeli security officials told The Times of Israel. The decision to withdraw the forces was likely made due to the rising number of casualties among Iranian soldiers fighting in Syria and the subsequent growing public outcry back home …

Iran sent some 2,000 Revolutionary Guards fighters to Syria in September. There are just 700-800 remaining, the Israeli sources said.

I don’t know how that affects the number of Iranians fighting as part of the Syrian Army, or the random Shias from Pakistan and Afghanistan who were recruited and sent over as cannon fodder.

But in any case, clearly Iran is less eager than it was before. (Though watch how they proceed post-Majlis elections.)

Finally, according to this compendium of sources, even Hezbollah might be leaving. Though they qualify it, and the picture provided does not fill one with confidence:

As @fufkin on Twitter points out, that vodka bottle in the background and the Jesus poster or screensaver next to the Assad picture make one think … maybe that’s not Hezbollah (oh, riiiight), in which case this is a picture of who and why?

But enough frivolity.

While Russia was engaged in Syria, the West could leave (Western allies) Saudi Arabia’s and Qatar’s and Turkey’s support for groups like Jabhat al-Nusra in the “too hard to solve” basket. Distasteful and disastrous, but Russia wouldn’t let them take over Syria, so the West could tolerate it without approving of it and still benefit from these alliances in other arenas.

If — big if! — Russia exits, or dials down its support of Assad, that issue moves unavoidably front and center. The cost of doing nothing about it could be significant.

Your move, Amreeka. What next?

(And has anybody asked Clinton, Trump, Sanders, or Cruz what, specifically, should be done?)