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Trump? Nobody Knows Anything.
Over coffee while we were all waiting for Mrs. Reagan’s funeral to begin last Friday, I had conversations with two of the most astute and accomplished political figures I know: Pete Wilson, former governor of California, and Newt Gingrich, former Speaker of the House. I asked each if he thought Donald Trump could win — not the nomination, which both believed he might very well grasp, but the White House itself.
Pete Wilson shook his head. “In the general, I’m afraid, Trump would get destroyed.”
Newt Gingrich smiled. “He could crush Hillary. Imagine Trump’s going to the South Side of Chicago and saying that the status quo of bad schools and declining neighborhoods and violence in the streets is just unacceptable. Imagine his saying, ‘I’m a billionaire and you’re not because they’ve rigged the system.'” Trump’s reach is so broad, the former Speaker argued, that he could become the first Republican in decades to win significant black support, dooming the Democrats.
Trump. Either he will be destroyed — or he will do the destroying. What has always been true of show business is now true of presidential politics: As screenwriter William Goldman famously put it in the first sentence of his classic book, Adventures in the Screen Trade, “Nobody knows anything.”
Published in General
To what end?
It’s a very simple question which seems to baffle his supporters.
We know somethings about Trump.
Personally, I would be enthusiastic about Trump, or anyone else, going to the South Side of Chicago and saying that the status quo of bad schools and declining neighborhood and violence is just unacceptable. I’d be thrilled if he challenged Hillary to explain how more of the same policies are going to make things better for people whose lives matter.
Frankly, I don’t see him doing this. If he garnered significant black support because he sold the African-American community on conservative solutions, he might get my support, too. But he isn’t actually trying to sell anyone, black or white, on conservative solutions. He’s just selling everyone Trump.
Nixon won one of 3 landslides in the 20th century, with 19% of the black support. The “southern strategy” wasn’t just southern white appeal.
If we assume that 2016 is a lot more like 1968 and 1972 era, and popular discontent with rampaging left wing social activists wreaking havoc in all of our social institutions, economic malaise, and unpopular wars raging, AND if the conservative establishment doesn’t retreat further up their own third point of contact, then yes, Trump could landslide like reagan and nixon (common denominator = Buchanon).
Think Nixon, and not Reagan.
Newt also thought he was going to be the nominee in 2012. That said, it may be that his particular outlook is finally bearing fruit and it’s name is Donald.
I know a lot about Newt, he and I go way back, trust me, way back, he and I are good friends, and I’m telling you, we’ve been friends for a long time. And as I’ve said many times, he’s stayed my hotels and he’s had a great time, he’s loved every minute of it, he always tells me he loves my hotels, how fantastic they are and he loves them. And he knows that because I do such a fantastic job with my hotels and with my other businesses, he knows that I’ll make Hillary’s head spin. I just will, he knows it, she knows it, we all know it, because my hotels are so wonderful to stay in.
Respectfully, I think your conversation took place before Friday night. I am not sure Speaker Gingrich’s opinion holds much water after the events of Friday last.
Yeah.
What is funny for me is, I have a stronger emotional response to Rubio, but the people you like are the ones that hurt you the most.
Rationally though, Trump scares me. Emotionally, he just seems funny.
Which events, specifically? Did I miss something?
To paraphrase Bogart in Casablanca: “There are certain neighborhoods in Chicago, I would advise Mr. Trump not to try and stage an event in.”
Of course, he was speaking to a Nazi officer at the time and I don’t want to be accused of going full-Godwin.
First, Nixon would not have succeeded in today’s media environment. The media destruction of Trump will be total if he’s the nominee. I think Trump will be lucky to get 40% in the general.
Second, I’m not sure how comparing him to Nixon is supposed to help. Even if it helped the electability case, it raises King Prawn’s question: To what end? Nixon was horrible for conservatism both from a policy standpoint (EPA, wage and price controls, etc.) and from a popularity standpoint (Jimmy Carter). Expect worse from Trump.
Oh, you mean the riot. I thought it wasn’t a big deal. But then, I’ve been avoiding Trump news…
Hmmmm think Nixon. Those are not necessarily happy thoughts. Wage and price controls. EPA. “Republican” became a dirty word.
I sympathize with King Prawn. It’s one thing to ponder whether Trump could win the election, and how he would appeal to various voting blocs. It’s another to ponder whether he could realistically deliver on his promises, should he get elected.
Does this mean that any pundit or pollster who calls it correctly is to be considered nothing but a lucky guesser?
Imagine if their had been no Nixon to return a semblance of social stability to america, and process the changes of the past decade.
For those not understanding why I keep posting candidates favorability numbers.
He will lose so badly that the house could be in jeopardy.
I have posted that I think Trump can use the “free speech” issue against the inevitable opposition. But the key is to be seen as a champion for free speech for everyone and not just a more effective bully. That’s a fine line which, based on recent history, may be challenging for Trump to walk.
Yes, but that leaves 38 percent who do not have an unfavorable opinion. Math is not my strong suit, but I keep looking at that unfavorable number as meaning it is possible that those 38 percent who will not go so far as saying they hate Donald Trump as possibly willing to vote for him under some circumstances.
That’s why I think Trump could win the general. If enough Democrats vote for him, even if he loses Republicans to Micky Mouse write-ins, he might make for those losses with Democrats.
Or am I completely wrong in how I’m looking at the unfavorables?
You’re math isn’t wrong, but 38% is a pathetic number of people who do not actively dislike you.
For example, in 2004 George W Bush had a favorability between +8 and +16. Compare that to Trump’s -29.
Put me down for writing in Mickey Mouse as a more worthy president than Donald Trump and he’s much more level-headed than Donald Duck or Goofy. There’s film and video evidence to support this. Okay, fine he once chopped up a broomstick with an axe. But I think he can be forgiven for that.
Understand this: I am a movement conservative. I vote based on principle. I live in a deeply blue state, but I still always vote, because of the principle of the thing. I will not vote for Trump. Not even if I lived in a purple state would I vote for Trump. And I suspect a lot of conservatives feel that way. This is what Frank means when he talks about favor-ability.
That’s 32.9% favorability before the Media onslaught. Romney’s was 49% after it.
The flaw in Gingrich’s argument starts with his use of the word “Imagine”. Yes, I can imagine anything. I can also imagine a 50-state victory for Hillary. Imagine!
Yeah, he’s either going to win big or lose big. It’s really hard to say.
Gingrich is always fun to listen to, but I was gobsmacked by his interview on Hannity a few weeks ago, wherein, in what passes for sage political advice in this day and age, Gingrich was opining that someone should take Trump aside and tell him that the bombast, the vulgarity, and particularly the profanity, really isn’t appropriate in the front-runner for the nomination. Newt thought that someone needed to explain to Trump that he just couldn’t continue to produce the entertaining but ignorant and largely fact-free word salad which passes for reflective thought if you’re Trump, because one day, someone would act on it (even, perhaps a foreign head of state), and there would be trouble.
In short, I think Newt was saying that someone needed to teach Trump that what he says may sometimes have consequences he does not anticipate, that he should think before opening his mouth, and that if coherent thought is impossible, he should consult with experts before speaking at all.
I think these are all concepts that my eight-year old granddaughter pretty much has down pat.
The fact that a man of Newt’s eccentric, but undeniable genius has to waste his time explaining this for the advantage of the man who may, in a few short months, be the next President of the United States made me very sad.
One other thing that these models don’t account for: Hillary. Hillary is just as unpopular, she’s a flawed candidate, she’s a woman, and they have a bigger hurdle in a presidential election, she’s got a record of complete failure – she hasn’t accomplished anything – she has to carry Obama’s unpopular policies (economy, healthcare, international policies) with her, and she’s got Bill Clinton skeeviness to tarnish her candidacy. Plus it’s extremely rare the same party carries the white house three elections in a row. This might be it, but I think it won’t be.
This election is a gift from the gods to the Republicans. We only lose if we split. And we’re doing a fine job of that right now. This “never Trump” thing is childish.
Clinton -12%
Trump -29%
Some kerfuffle after a rally scheduled for UIC.
If Clinton doesn’t start winning large states with dominant, white, blue collar voters soon, she just might find that the indictment has magically appeared at the convention.
You can never be too cynical with Dems.
I am beginning to think the immunity deal is Obama’s way of keeping his options open. Just in case she looks vulnerable. No pressure Hill’ just start winning big!