The Ricochet Primary: And Then There Were Four

 

We saw a lot of candidates drop out since the last Ricochet poll. Now we’re down to just a handful and the members are coalescing around Cruz and Rubio. Cruz has a slight lead over Rubio for the first-choice pick.

1st choice

Looking back over the last few months, you can see Cruz trending up and now it looks like Rubio’s support is hitting a ceiling.

1st choice line chart

For second choice, Cruz has a larger lead. This shows that he’s stronger with the Ricochetti as Rubio fails to pick up those votes.

2nd choice

We can look at where those Cruz voters go for their second choice.

2nd choice Cruz voters

We can also see who Rubio supporters pick as their fallback option.

2nd choice Rubio voters

And to show you how different the Ricochet community is from the GOP electorate as a whole, here’s a comparison with the RCP average of support for each candidate. Ricochet is clearly Cuban country.

RCP v Ricochet

The sample size was 378 which yields a sampling error of +/-5.0%. Thanks to everyone who took the survey.

There are 21 comments.

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  1. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Trump’s not very popular round these parts, is he?

    • #1
  2. TKC1101 Inactive
    TKC1101
    @TKC1101

    Joseph Stanko: Trump’s not very popular round these parts, is he?

    His get out the vote  effort is weak.

    Also I suspect dead people vote in these.

    • #2
  3. Jim Kearney Contributor
    Jim Kearney
    @JimKearney

    Trump supporters note that The Donald has now risen to #3 in the Rico-ranks. The way things are going for Marco, he could rise to #2 by this time next week.

    It’s hard to pick out the funniest moment in last night’s Trump victory speech cum prop comic routine. The segue from rebutting Romney’s denigration of his companies into a long infomercial covered by three live news networks was seamless. You’d think it was just his mind drifting off, if it weren’t for the wine bottles, hotel magazine, and slabs of meat conveniently stashed near the podium.

    The clumsy waiter / flying steak routine warranted multiple replays. But what really cracked us up was when he went on about preferring debates with an odd number of participants, so he could have center stage to himself.

    Toward that end, Trump may be hoping that Kasich wins Ohio and remains in after Rubio departs — even if it creates a new obstacle to Trump’s steady, albeit attrition-driven rise in the Rico-ranks.

    • #3
  4. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    Jim Kearney: Trump supporters note that The Donald has now risen to #3 in the Rico-ranks. The way things are going for Marco, he could rise to #2 by this time next week.

    Nah, according to the 2nd choice numbers above if Rubio drops out then 13.3% of his backers switch to Kasich, giving him a bump of 6% while Trump gets a mere 0.8%.  That would vault Kasich up to 2nd place with 7.1% to Trump’s 5.3%.

    • #4
  5. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    I guess the Rubio supporters were the ones who were ridiculed Ben Carson.  I forgot about that.

    • #5
  6. E. Kent Golding Member
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    I think “None of the Above” would get 51% of the First Choice ballots and 49% of the Second Choice ballots. Can’t we just nominate “None of the Above”? In your heart, you know you love “None of the Above”!

    • #6
  7. Big Ern Inactive
    Big Ern
    @BigErn

    Polls like this make me love Ricochet even more. Where’s that Reagan upgrade button?

    • #7
  8. Tom Meyer, Ed. Contributor
    Tom Meyer, Ed.
    @tommeyer

    Bereket Kelile:We can also see who Rubio supporters pick as their fallback option.

    2nd choice Rubio voters

    I hope this dispels the myth that Rubio-supporting Ricochetti either won’t support Cruz or (generally) oppose him as much as Trump.

    • #8
  9. George Savage Contributor
    George Savage
    @GeorgeSavage

    Jim Kearney: It’s hard to pick out the funniest moment in last night’s Trump victory speech cum prop comic routine. The segue from rebutting Romney’s denigration of his companies into a long infomercial covered by three live news networks was seamless. You’d think it was just his mind drifting off, if it weren’t for the wine bottles, hotel magazine, and slabs of meat conveniently stashed near the podium.

    Jim, I watched CNN report the election returns last night from the confines of an airliner seat. I nodded off as Donald Trump was beginning his victory speech. Some long while later a pocket of turbulence startled me awake: As I worked out the kinks in my neck, I noted that Mr. Trump was still speaking. But how could this be? My watch told me that nearly an hour had passed. Somehow CNN was still covering what sounded like an unending stream-of-consciousness from the Republican front-runner.

    • #9
  10. Jim Kearney Contributor
    Jim Kearney
    @JimKearney

    George Savage: Jim, I watched CNN report the election returns last night from the confines of an airliner seat. I nodded off as Donald Trump was beginning his victory speech. Some long while later a pocket of turbulence startled me awake: As I worked out the kinks in my neck, I noted that Mr. Trump was still speaking. But how could this be? My watch told me that nearly an hour had passed. Somehow CNN was still covering what sounded like an unending stream-of-consciousness from the Republican front-runner.

    Politico points out that CNN wasn’t the only one captivated. None of them dared switch off Trump because they knew that the viewers would switch to whichever news channel stuck with him.

    The victory speech effectively blacked out his competition from both parties.

    Sorry about the turbulence and your neck. If you’re in L.A. I can recommend a good chiropractor.

    • #10
  11. blank generation member Inactive
    blank generation member
    @blankgenerationmember

    Last night I attended the Silicon Valley Conservative Forum where Kevin Williamson gave a talk.  He conducted a quick hand raising poll before the talk.  I figure there were 200-300 people in attendance, but I’m not law enforcement so what do I know.

    Some Kasich, Rubio, and Trump supporters.  Most hand raisers were Cruz.  I think Mr. Williamson was a little taken aback by that.

    • #11
  12. George Savage Contributor
    George Savage
    @GeorgeSavage

    blank generation member:Last night I attended the Silicon Valley Conservative Forum where Kevin Williamson gave a talk. He conducted a quick hand raising poll before the talk. I figure there were 200-300 people in attendance, but I’m not law enforcement so what do I know.

    Some Kasich, Rubio, and Trump supporters. Most hand raisers were Cruz. I think Mr. Williamson was a little taken aback by that.

    There’s a Silicon Valley Conservative Forum? How have I missed this lo these past 29 years?  Sign me up!

    • #12
  13. blank generation member Inactive
    blank generation member
    @blankgenerationmember

    George Savage:

    blank generation member:Last night I attended the Silicon Valley Conservative Forum where Kevin Williamson gave a talk. He conducted a quick hand raising poll before the talk. I figure there were 200-300 people in attendance, but I’m not law enforcement so what do I know.

    Some Kasich, Rubio, and Trump supporters. Most hand raisers were Cruz. I think Mr. Williamson was a little taken aback by that.

    There’s a Silicon Valley Conservative Forum? How have I missed this lo these past 29 years? Sign me up!

    I’m a haphazard attendee myself.  Another member informed me of this a couple of years ago.

    http://www.theconservativeforum.com/

    Addendum:  Mr. Lileks was out here giving a talk a couple of months ago.  Don’t you upper management guys coordinate anything?

    • #13
  14. Joseph Stanko Coolidge
    Joseph Stanko
    @JosephStanko

    George Savage:

    blank generation member:Last night I attended the Silicon Valley Conservative Forum where Kevin Williamson gave a talk. He conducted a quick hand raising poll before the talk. I figure there were 200-300 people in attendance, but I’m not law enforcement so what do I know.

    Some Kasich, Rubio, and Trump supporters. Most hand raisers were Cruz. I think Mr. Williamson was a little taken aback by that.

    There’s a Silicon Valley Conservative Forum? How have I missed this lo these past 29 years? Sign me up!

    Yeah I’m less surprised by the poll results than by the fact that there are 200-300 conservatives in Silicon Valley…

    • #14
  15. blank generation member Inactive
    blank generation member
    @blankgenerationmember

    Joseph Stanko:

    George Savage:

    blank generation member:Last night I attended the Silicon Valley Conservative Forum where Kevin Williamson gave a talk. He conducted a quick hand raising poll before the talk. I figure there were 200-300 people in attendance, but I’m not law enforcement so what do I know.

    Some Kasich, Rubio, and Trump supporters. Most hand raisers were Cruz. I think Mr. Williamson was a little taken aback by that.

    There’s a Silicon Valley Conservative Forum? How have I missed this lo these past 29 years? Sign me up!

    Yeah I’m less surprised by the poll results than by the fact that there are 200-300 conservatives in Silicon Valley…

    Did I mention there were at least one armed guard?  The couple of other times I was there didn’t have that.

    • #15
  16. Sash Member
    Sash
    @Sash

    If Rubio drops out after Florida I’ll lose interest, because no one else interests me.

    Double edged sword, I’ll get more done.  But I’ll have a President I basically hate, and not party to be a part of.

    • #16
  17. rebark Inactive
    rebark
    @rebark

    I sympathize with that sentiment, Sash, but while I don’t believe that I can choose the lesser evil between Trump and Clinton (and thus would vote for neither), I do think that the lesser evil between Cruz and Clinton is quite apparent.

    If Cruz is the nominee, I think that regular election rules apply, and one must still find and vote for the least terrible candidate.

    You don’t have to be optimistic about the outcome. But I think you owe it to yourself to still try and stop Trump and, later, Hillary.

    • #17
  18. Tom Riehl Inactive
    Tom Riehl
    @TrinityWaters

    This internal poll reminds me immediately of what my German grandmothers would call bushwa (sp).  Trump is pulling the rug out from under the comfortable and protected class; and there are many representatives here in Ricochet who are in high dudgeon, predictably.

    Cruz is best, but anybody other than an old, recycled progressive Democrat fascist is OK.  And please save your pithy comments about how that doesn’t exclude Trump.

    Not voting means you are in fact voting for Hillary, and in spite of your espoused high ideals and principles, you are choosing a murdering, treasonous, serial liar to lead our country.  Thanks.

    Romney, Ryan, McConnell, McCain, and the rest of the bloviating “conservative” turncoats day is over.  Over.  We need to approach the voters’ choice of the GOP nominee with a positive attitude and push our moral agenda.  Let go of this internal cat fight that is always demeaning and counterproductive.   Help our nominee and save your venom for those on the left who deserve it.

    Trump is somehow the anti-Christ but those who fervently defend partial-birth abortion are ignored?  The Oregon State Police and the FBI lay a trap, then gun down, with impunity, an inconvenient protester?  This election may well be our last chance to non-violently redeem the USA, and we’d best choose our battles and weapons wisely, or if not, step aside.  All the weak rhetoric within these interminable electoral and Trump-related  posts has become hard to stomach.

    Truth: face it.

    • #18
  19. Aaron Miller Member
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    The Republican seems likely to lose regardless of who it is because my-way-or-the-highway voters abound in every camp. Unifying the party will be crucial in the next several months.

    • #19
  20. Larry3435 Member
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    I guess that all the numbers in the OP mean that either Cruz or Rubio really should drop out.  Of course, if Ricochet members were representative of the country, then Trump would have been done with back in last August.

    For myself, I have abandoned the goal of getting anything good for the country out of this election.  All that matters now is stopping Trump.  As a President, I would prefer Rubio or Kasich.  But as a primary candidate, I have to get behind Cruz as the not-Trump.  He seems to do it best.

    Marco, please, fall on your sword.  Be a hero!

    • #20
  21. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Bereket Kelile: The sample size was 378

    That translates to only 17 Trump supporters. Yet we have to endure an ongoing barrage of scolding posts as if the number was ten times larger.

    • #21
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