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It Ain’t Over Yet
Yesterday, Todd Zwycki in Pravda-on-the Potomac and PJ here on Ricochet noticed something that we should all attend to. The primaries that Donald Trump has won are almost all open primaries, and Ted Cruz has won three of the four primaries and caucuses held thus far that were restricted to registered Republicans.
That, as Zwycki points out, may be a sign of things to come. On Saturday, there are contests in four states: Kansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, and Maine. In all four states, only Republicans can vote. It is obvious that Donald Trump is getting a lot of Republican votes. It is not clear that a plurality of Republican voters opted for him in places such as South Carolina, Virginia, Vermont, and Arkansas. Nearly everywhere, there has been a huge increase in the turnout for the Republican primaries and caucuses. Nearly everywhere, there has also been a huge drop in the turnout for the Democratic primaries and caucuses. The evidence suggests that there has been a large cross-over vote and that, in many places, it is that cross-over vote that has put Trump over the top.
Mischief-making may have something to do with what is going on. But I suspect that most of the Democrats who have turned out for the Republican contests are disaffected and find The Donald attractive. And why shouldn’t they? He is not a Republican. He is not a conservative, and he sounds the patriotic and nativist themes that Democrats used to sound. To date, the state in which Trump has done the best is Massachusetts, where he received 49% of the vote in the primary. He did not do particular well in Oklahoma, my native state, which is among the most conservative states in the country.
I have trouble believing that Trump, if nominated, would win the general election. His negatives are much too high. Marco Rubio is the Republican candidate most likely to win. He is a charmer. But I suspect that Cruz could win as well. Hillary Clinton is a remarkably unappealing candidate. Bernie Sanders, of all people, won the Democratic primary in Oklahoma.
As I said, I have trouble believing that Trump, if nominated, would win the general election. But I also have trouble believing that he could win Republican primaries. He loves Planned Parenthood. He wants to put his sister, who favors infanticide partial-birth abortion, on the Supreme Court. He loves Obamacare. He thinks Vladimir Putin a peach. But, this and other madness notwithstanding, the man has attracted a lot of Republican voters — which leads me to think, “What do I know?”
Well, there is one thing that I do know. The primaries and caucuses closed to cross-over voters will tell the tale. There are a lot of them coming up. Fasten your seat belts!
Published in Politics
There is much wisdom in your words. For more on Donald’s appeal and his powers of persuasion look here and here . I think the professor’s identified a big segment of Trump’s intended market. These other posts I’ve linked to should help suss out his technique.
Also, FIRST!!
Thanks for the reminder. Here in KY this will be the first time we caucus, and now I have to figure out when and where.
Interesting that Rubio is skipping events in both Louisiana and Kentucky. Wonder what this means?
When we assert that one or another candidate can or cannot win, we’re going by our gut reaction to them because polls mean so little. My gut says Rubio can win, but Trump supporters and those who hate him because of gang of eight may not vote. My gut tells me Cruz can win because I like everything he says and the understanding his tax proposal reflects and I think my gut is right. My gut gets into knots thinking about a Trump win and total dysentery contemplating Hillary, so it provides no insights.
These disaffected Democrats whose votes Trump is supposedly getting in certain open primaries seem pretty important to me if one wishes to win the general election. Supposing that these votes are not merely mischief, which takes a certain leap of faith in itself, the general is all open everywhere. A republican who cannot garner Democrat votes, and I will put Cruz in that category, will not win the general election. At least that is a rational position and does put most of us in a quandary.
They are both closed primaries/caucus.
I’m not a ‘joiner’ so I’ve never bothered to register in any political party. However, Illinois is an Open Primary state. Come March 15 I will march down to my polling station and request a Republican ballot and vote for whichever candidate is closest to defeating Trump (currently it’s Rubio). Besides growling and spluttering at my computer screen it’s the least I can do.
You say that Trump is obviously not a genuine Republican. But he is openly interested in big business and focused on growth, tough (if haphazard) on foreign policy, defiant of PC pussyfooting and complaints of the usual victim groups, and so in a handful of ways breaks from Democratic norms. Plenty of Republicans are liberal on the issues of abortion, green initiatives, and other stances normally associated with the Left.
Explain to me the difference between Trump’s sort of Democrat and a Rockefeller Republican.
I’ve noticed that some Republicans who would vote for Trump would also vote for Bloomberg. Trump is a friend of Giuliani, whom many Ricochet members and respected pundits on the Right preferred as their presidential candidate years ago. Could it not be said that Trump is basically a New York City Republican?
Trumps signature issue is illegal immigration. There is a large segment of the Democrat party ( blue collar union members) that has watched in disgust as their party advocates open borders.
I suspect that those are the crossover voters in the open primaries. Democrats, even liberals at heart, but so disaffected by their party’s abandonment of them on immigration that they are willing to vote for a big government Republican who agrees with them on immigration.
I suspect they would vote for Trump in the general as well, but I doubt they can be counted on for any other candidate.
It would be interesting to see some data on this. Imagine if the angst and outrage over immigration is actually a Democrat issue rather than a Republican one. That sure throws a wrench in the works.
To the larger point of Paul’s piece I must respond with my recent thesis: Trump is proof that the American people really meant it when they elected Obama twice. They really do want a king. Angelo Codevilla made the same point in The Federalist a couple of days ago.
Probably means his internals are showing horrible things and he’s redirecting resources…. time, money, appearances… to places he thinks he can be more competitive in.
People seem to vote like the President is going to be their friend or something.
What makes me feel better is there are a lot of us perplexed by fellow voters.
I have not idea who has the best chance. Strategy voters may start with one guy, and vote for who they think is winning even if their guy is still in. I’ll vote Cruz. If you are going between a few, you will probably break toward who you think will win. That’s what I would do.
I am in Michigan where we have a closed primary. I know you have to be registered 30 days before the election. We get either a Republican or Democrat ballot before we go to the voting booth. Isn’t it possible that you could still cross over by asking for the Republican one and voting Trump? We are a heavy union state, and I think there are some upset Bernie voters, but they realize Hillary is chosen. I don’t know if registrations have increased in the state either. It was charged that was why we got Snyder, but not confirmed, I believe. Calling Michael Barone!
I suspect it means he knows he is going to get crushed in KY.
Seeing reports he’s flooding most of his efforts into Florida. He trails Trump there, and if he loses his home state, obviously, it’s over. His instate approval ratings have been mostly underwater since 2013.
Trump is going to hit a wall in the Midwest. See Iowa, see Minnesota. He’s had it easy so far mainly in the Northeast and South + Nevada. It’s going to be fun to see that monster ego deflate faster than his puffed-up hair in a light rain.
And one of the biggest rejoinders from people like Charles Cooke at NR on Super Tuesday was “See, Trump doesn’t win closed primaries”. Saturday’s vote will thus be very interesting to see if that particular talking point holds up.
That’s a really good observation Paul. And this weekend we’ll see a good test of it. Perhaps Romney timed his speech before Saturday to show a sort of moment and change the media story line if Trump loses this weekend. We can only pray that Trump loses this weekend.
Aaron, Trump is a fraud. He really is a con man. This is all marketing on his part. He is not a genuine Republican. Perhaps he’s not a genuine anything. The only thing he’s genuine about is building up Trump.
Which makes him more negotiable than Clinton, who is ideologically set against everything we care about. Trump’s detractors all seem to agree that he is out for #1. He serves himself, first and foremost. So it’s reasonable to assume that he is open to some pro-business (particularly pro-corporate) measures and that Republicans might steer him on some other issues to help him establish a legacy which feeds his ego.
I’m not sure I’d vote for him in the main election even to save us from Clinton. It’s evident that Trump’s election would severely fragment the Republican party and thereby weaken opposition to his executive overreach as well as negotiating strength. He probably would rely on Democrat allies to overcome Republican resistance on some issues.
But my point was that the Northeastern urban variety of Republicanism is radically opposed to the Republicanism of suburban and rural voters in the South and Midwest. Aside from an interest in economic prosperity, we don’t share many interests. Again, either in this thread or in a separate conversation, I would like to know what distinguishes Rockefeller Republicans from Democrats.
Rockefeller Republicans were even before my time, and I’m 54 years old. I’m not going to get into that. Yes, Romney was more Liberal on social issues, and that might have been out of expediency. He was a transplant to the east. I don’t know what that has to do with Trump.
What numbers are you using? Last I looked Cruz was the threat to Trump by the delegate count.
Thank you, Dr. Rahe. These have been my thoughts as well. When viewed through the proper lenses, the Trump phenomenon is not all that difficult to understand.
This will be a topsy-turvy nominating process, but it will almost certainly resolve sensibly. It is a Cruz vs. Rubio contest but it won’t appear that way until more people recognize that Trump can’t win closed-primary winner-take-all states.
You are more confident than I am. I would only suggest that there are considerable reasons for hope. Those hopes may be dashed shortly. I am keeping my fingers crossed.
Trump’s sort of Democrat gives donations to Democratic campaigns. Trump’s sort of Democrat has few, if any, constitutional scruples. As for New York City Republicans, they hardly exist. The last man elected mayor on the Republican line was a registered Democrat.
According to latest polls Rubio is in second place in Illinois. He was my choice all along but now I have a greater sense of mission.
A totally meaningless anecdotal report.
In the KY caucus tomorrow:
Dad is voting for Trump
Mom is voting for Kasich
My brother and I are voting for Cruz.
My wife is so disgusted by it all she may not vote.