Dispelling the Idea That Ted Cruz Is Unelectable

 

ted cruz latino closeupWe’ve reached the point where if the field doesn’t produce an anti-Trump in the next two weeks or so, Donald Trump will win the Republican nomination. Up until Tuesday night, the general feeling was that Marco Rubio could fill that role and that the others should make way for him. That was good, except now, out of 15 contests, Rubio has won exactly one.

That would seem to point to Ted Cruz as the anti-Trump savior. Unfortunately, the thing I hear over and over again from conservatives and some libertarians, is that they prefer Cruz, but that he is unelectable. Just so everybody is clear: I don’t have a guy. Other than being anti-Trump, I don’t have a dog in this fight. But I find fault with the argument that Ted Cruz is unelectable.

First things first, can we all agree that this presidential election cycle is unprecedented? Having a former First Lady as a major party nominee alone makes this a historical election. As does a woman being the major party nominee. As does a candidate who has a non-zero chance of getting indicted between now and election day.

And then there’s Trump. A year ago, I sat in the audience of his CPAC speech and laughed loudly at just about every line. I, and others around me, marveled how he went from General McArthur to Bowe Bergdahl to Iran to a border wall to executive orders to Common Core to the Second Amendment in under 90 seconds. But nobody’s laughing anymore. Donald Trump has defied all models, expectations, and attempts at self immolation.

Add to that the atypical mood of the electorate, the fatigue at the end of an eight-year presidency, the general chaos of the world and the nation, the whims of the electoral process, and it becomes damn near impossible to predict anything.

So then why the assumption that Cruz is unelectable?

Ted Cruz has two enormous things in his favor: he is a master strategist and he has the ambition to win. He realized he needed to win an early state. Since he’s a Senator from Texas, it wasn’t going to be New Hampshire. He realized the key to Iowa was evangelical voters, so from his announcement, Cruz geared his campaign towards winning that block. He has a plan and he executes that plan with enormous discipline. In the debates he stuck to his message and laid low until the number of opponents became manageable. Cruz held off attacking Trump and left the door open to welcome in his supporters until such time as it was no longer practicable. (After all, everyone knew that Trump would eventually self-destruct.)

Even now, in the most recent debate, he let Rubio get down in the muck with Trump. Cruz’s attacks were more subtle, repeatedly setting up Trump to hang himself. (For example, by getting him to praise Qaddafi.) And on Tuesday, that strategy of letting Rubio crawl through the mud paid off.

At this point, calls for Rubio or Cruz to drop in favor of the other are mostly coming from those who favor one candidate or the other. I consider them premature. But if Rubio can’t win any primaries (especially the one in Florida) it seems unlikely that he could win the general election.

A Cruz primary victory means he would be running against Hillary Clinton in the fall. There was a reason we had 17 candidates at one point: even George Pataki smelled blood in the water. Hillary Clinton is a wounded candidate. She’s wounded by her record, the primary fight, Benghazi, the Clinton Foundation, her husband’s scandals, the FBI investigation, and she’s dragged down by the same anti-dynastic sentiment that doomed Jeb Bush.

The conventional wisdom says that Cruz cannot possibly win. For an arch-conservative Senator from Texas, that might be true in a typical year. But I think we can all agree that this ain’t a typical year.

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  1. Tenacious D Inactive
    Tenacious D
    @TenaciousD

    Cruz sort of reminds me of (former Canadian PM) Stephen Harper: poor likeability ratings but a skilled and persistent campaign strategist. And hopefully a competent executive.

    • #31
  2. Herod Otis Inactive
    Herod Otis
    @HerodOtis

    I have a feeling that Cruz has been playing the long game, as much as one can when a china shop bull like Trump is in the room. As has already been pointed out, he has played up his evangelical bona fides up until now, expecting that it would help him up through the SEC primary. Any other election year this would have worked. I suspect he will begin pivoting toward the middle – at least in his rhetoric. There’s no way he thinks that he can keep emphasizing his religious credentials if he expects to be competitive in the Midwest so I expect a softening in some way. I think we can expect him to continue to take Trump apart like a skilled surgeon, especially because it allows him to score points while remaining above the fray.

    • #32
  3. Fred Cole Inactive
    Fred Cole
    @FredCole

    Carol:My only question – and the one thing I can think of in Trump’s favor- is whether Cruz would be willing to hit Hillary hard and sling mud. We know that Romney played by Marquis of Queensbury rules while Obama was a down and dirty Chicago style street fighter. Will Ted fight?

    I think we saw the answer to that question in SC, didn’t we?

    • #33
  4. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    If it makes those who are considering supporting Cruz any more at ease every criticism leveled at him in this race was put on him when he ran for Senate.

    That included that he was too conservative, radical, etc. for Texas. Feel free to marinate on that.

    His opponent in Texas was a real establishment guy: Lt. Gov, endorsed by Gov. Perry, honorable, veteran, CIA, self funding, no scandals and Cruz rolled over him.

    He is electable and will be fine in the general. My only concern in the general against Hillary is that he will take her apart so bad in a debate that she will cry or he will come across as a bully.

    There are reasons to differ with him on policy/priority and I have my difference with him, but don’t throw this election to Trump based on some ephemeral electability concept.

    • #34
  5. Midget Faded Rattlesnake Member
    Midget Faded Rattlesnake
    @Midge

    Tom Meyer, Ed.:

    Fred Cole: …So then why the assumption that Cruz is unelectable?

    I agree that anyone who speaks with anything approaching confidence on the matter is pulling their own leg.

    That said …

    Fred Cole: He realized the key to Iowa was evangelical voters, so from his announcement, Cruz geared his campaign towards winning that block. He has a plan and he executes that plan with enormous discipline.

    So why hasn’t this brilliant strategy worked better? I mean, Cruz should have walked away with SC and most of the other Southern primaries and caucuses last night.

    I don’t think Cruz anticipated Trump. In not anticipating Trump, Cruz might have also have misjudged the sentiments of less-observant Evangelicals. Cruz grew up in an observant family, after all.

    As I put it in another thread,

    I believe what Trump has tapped into is that there’s a yuuuuge percentage of self-identified Evangelicals, particularly in the South, who are unchurched, and whose lifestyles, aside from wealth, resemble Trump’s more than Cruz’s.

    These unchurched Evangelicals struggle disproportionately with divorce, sexual vices, drug abuse, gambling… If those were the kinds of struggles I faced in everyday life, I might find a “holier than thou”, “more successful than thou”, preacher’s kid with multiple Ivy-League diplomas pretty obnoxious, too. Trump, on the other hand, might be someone I could relate to better, since it’s impossible for him to maintain the pretense that he’s “better than me”.

    Absent a guy like Trump, who acts a lot like an unchurched Evangelical, a goodly proportion of unchurched Evangelicals may have nonetheless identified tribally with Cruz as a fellow Evangelical, even if Cruz comes off as the churched, goody-two-shoes type, the kind that secretly irritates them by reminding them of their lapses.

    But we’re not absent a guy like Trump, and Trump seems to fit into the unchurched half of the Evangelical tribe remarkably well.

    • #35
  6. Doug Kimball Thatcher
    Doug Kimball
    @DougKimball

    So what is it about Ted?  Why is he hard to love?

    Cruz is intensely earnest, so we never get to see him other than in full on Cruz mode.  He’s lawyerly, in a crafty way you like (but might not always understand) when he’s on your side.  He’s played a few of his colleagues and they resent him, especially given his junior status.  Washington is a polarizing place; a place where it is paramount to know who can be reliably called an ally and who, an opponent.

    Ted does not require the admiration of his peers, something that is profoundly un-Washington.  He exposes the hypocritical political nuance.  You can’t count on him to support Beltway legerdemain.  He stands out.  RR had that trait.

    Some people are easy to like, like Ben Carson, even if they are obviously outmatched in a political street fight.  We like Rubio because he’s young, cute, smart and has that quick smile.  But when Ted smiles, it looks like something of a snarl.  He may well be one of those folks (they’re the majority) who just can’t be funny.  It’s a problem in politics, to be so hard-wired.  It’s hard to see the man behind the intensity, and you have to see him to love him.

    I’m not suggesting that Ted needs to tell jokes.  Our current POTUS has a similar unfunny affliction.  He gets over it by singing a song or riffing on Republicans.  Ted needs to show us his humanity. because even a super-hero arch-conservative needs a little love.

    • #36
  7. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Good counsel Doug.

    • #37
  8. Frozen Chosen Inactive
    Frozen Chosen
    @FrozenChosen

    Doug Kimball: Ted needs to show us his humanity. because even a super-hero arch-conservative needs a little love.

    Hopefully you don’t have this is mind:

    mr-burns-birthday-cake

    • #38
  9. Midget Faded Rattlesnake Member
    Midget Faded Rattlesnake
    @Midge

    Doug Kimball:So what is it about Ted? Why is he hard to love?

    Cruz is intensely earnest, so we never get to see him other than in full on Cruz mode. He’s lawyerly, in a crafty way you like (but might not always understand) when he’s on your side…

    And when you think about it, earnest + crafty creates cognitive dissonance. How can an honest person be both, people might wonder. If he’s crafty, isn’t that earnestness a put-on? I don’t think of earnestness and craftiness as incompatible traits, but I get the impression other people do.

    Ted does not require the admiration of his peers, something that is profoundly un-Washington…

    …But when Ted smiles, it looks like something of a snarl.

    Beg to differ. Not a snarl. A puffin.

    puffin-fish_2253709k

    He may well be one of those folks (they’re the majority) who just can’t be funny.

    I think he can be funny in a geeky way. But that may not be a funny less geeky people relate to.

    Ted needs to show us his humanity. because even a super-hero arch-conservative needs a little love.

    You mean like this?

    • #39
  10. Herod Otis Inactive
    Herod Otis
    @HerodOtis

    BrentB67:If it makes those who are considering supporting Cruz any more at ease every criticism leveled at him in this race was put on him when he ran for Senate.

    That included that he was too conservative, radical, etc. for Texas. Feel free to marinate on that.

    His opponent in Texas was a real establishment guy: Lt. Gov, endorsed by Gov. Perry, honorable, veteran, CIA, self funding, no scandals and Cruz rolled over him.

    He is electable and will be fine in the general. My only concern in the general against Hillary is that he will take her apart so bad in a debate that she will cry or he will come across as a bully.

    There are reasons to differ with him on policy/priority and I have my difference with him, but don’t throw this election to Trump based on some ephemeral electability concept.

    During Cruz’s senate primary campaign, I do not remember seeing much evangelical emphasis in his ads.

    • #40
  11. Frozen Chosen Inactive
    Frozen Chosen
    @FrozenChosen

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake:You mean like this?

    Still too geeky…not funny

    Now if he would’ve quoted Caddy Shack

    • #41
  12. Richard Finlay Inactive
    Richard Finlay
    @RichardFinlay

    Mate De:Hillary and the media will try to destroy anyone who runs against her including Rubio. They won’t hold back anything

    Therefore we need someone who might fight back.  If not Trump, Cruz seems more likely than Rubio to do that effectively.

    • #42
  13. Midget Faded Rattlesnake Member
    Midget Faded Rattlesnake
    @Midge

    Frozen Chosen:

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake:You mean like this?

    GOP candidate Cruz acts out ‘Princess Bride’ scene

    Still too geeky…not funny

    … and now it’s on autoplay.

    • #43
  14. harrisventures Inactive
    harrisventures
    @harrisventures

    Ted’s perfectly electable.

    He’s principled, knows what he believes and why he believes it. It seems like the Ricochetti tilt more towards Rubio, thinking he is more electable. But to be electable, you have to win elections. So far, Ted has been winning more of the electorate than Rubio.

    Rubio will gladly pay you Tuesday for a hamburger today (Florida).

    Don’t get me wrong, I like Rubio, and would have no problem voting for him. But right now, Ted has won more actual votes in the primary, and I think he is more likely to defeat Drumpf. If the Republican party is to survive, we must defeat Drumpf.

    • #44
  15. Hoyacon Member
    Hoyacon
    @Hoyacon

    Richard Finlay:

    Mate De:Hillary and the media will try to destroy anyone who runs against her including Rubio. They won’t hold back anything

    Therefore we need someone who might fight back. If not Trump, Cruz seems more likely than Rubio to do that effectively.

    Maybe, but Cruz  also has more baggage to defend.  The government shutdown, for better or worse, was not generally popular.  People still remember it.  The Dems will hang that around his neck big time.

    • #45
  16. Richard Finlay Inactive
    Richard Finlay
    @RichardFinlay

    Hoyacon:

    Richard Finlay:

    Mate De:Hillary and the media will try to destroy anyone who runs against her including Rubio. They won’t hold back anything

    Therefore we need someone who might fight back. If not Trump, Cruz seems more likely than Rubio to do that effectively.

    Maybe, but Cruz also has more baggage to defend. The government shutdown, for better or worse, was not generally popular. People still remember it. The Dems will hang that around his neck big time.

    Assuming this is a totally negative campaign, Hillary has more negatives than Cruz, if he will attack.  Could make it competitive.

    Now suppose there is a marginally credible third party.  If the Rs and Ds destroy each other, might we end up in the House of Representatives?

    • #46
  17. Tim Wright Inactive
    Tim Wright
    @TimWright

    The description of Cruz as “unelectable” has always seemed to me to be a reference to his being an evangelical Christian. That’s seen as something that just won’t fly in our loosey-goosey culture. I’m sure Hollywood and the media will do their best, but I think he’s got a good shot. Tim

    • #47
  18. Arizona Patriot Member
    Arizona Patriot
    @ArizonaPatriot

    Frozen Chosen:

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake:You mean like this?

    Still too geeky…not funny

    Now if he would’ve quoted Caddy Shack

    I like it.  Anybody want a peanut?

    Now if only Cruz and Rubio would both say: I swear on the soul of my father, Domingo Montoya, Trump will not be the nominee.

    • #48
  19. RightAngles Member
    RightAngles
    @RightAngles

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake:As I put it in another thread,

    … Trump has tapped into …  self-identified Evangelicals, particularly in the South, who are unchurched, …

    These … Evangelicals struggle disproportionately with divorce, sexual vices, drug abuse, … If those were the kinds of struggles I faced … I might find a “holier than thou”, “more successful than thou”, preacher’s kid with multiple Ivy-League diplomas pretty obnoxious, too. Trump, on the other hand, … it’s impossible for him to maintain the pretense that he’s “better than me”.

    Absent a guy like Trump, who acts a lot like an unchurched Evangelical, a goodly proportion unchurched Evangelicals may have nonetheless identified tribally with Cruz as a fellow Evangelical, even if Cruz comes off as the churched, goody-two-shoes type, the kind that secretly irritates them by reminding them of their lapses.

    This is a good point. I was trying to articulate it but you did it for me. Trump has a very lower class-sounding accent to a southerner’s ear (to a Midwesterner’s too). When he talks, you forget he lives in a gilded penthouse. He sounds like Archie Bunker. Cruz has speech affectations that grate, such as the way he pronounces his long “o” sound and other vowels, and a manner which feels like he thinks he’s talking tolerantly down to a slow 5-year-old. I want to scream at him that I AM SMART DAMMIT.

    • #49
  20. BD Member
    BD
    @

    I’m not voting for Trump or Rubio. For me, it’s Ted Cruz or hit the booze.

    • #50
  21. Tennessee Inactive
    Tennessee
    @Tennessee

    Both irenic and interesting. I’d like to see a positive surge around the goal of winning–sparing us another President Clinton.

    It’s hard to figure “electability” sometimes, especially in this cycle.

    • #51
  22. Tedley Member
    Tedley
    @Tedley

    Fred, good post. Many of the negative comments I’ve seen about Cruz are not about policy. He’s disliked by other members of the Senate? As an organization with one of the lowest favorability ratings in America, I see that as a resume enhancer.

    • #52
  23. Lazy_Millennial Inactive
    Lazy_Millennial
    @LazyMillennial

    Hoyacon:

    Richard Finlay:

    Mate De:Hillary and the media will try to destroy anyone who runs against her including Rubio. They won’t hold back anything

    Therefore we need someone who might fight back. If not Trump, Cruz seems more likely than Rubio to do that effectively.

    Maybe, but Cruz also has more baggage to defend. The government shutdown, for better or worse, was not generally popular. People still remember it. The Dems will hang that around his neck big time.

    Disagree on the baggage: Cruz went for the shutdown due to Obamacare. Turning that attack around is easy.

    I’m a Rubio supporter. But Rubio’s got baggage, and Mike Murphy didn’t show all of it. His opposition to abortion even in the case of rape will be front and center of Hillary’s campaign.

    Cruz, probably has baggage we don’t know about, because no one’s really gone after him. Yet.

    • #53
  24. BuckeyeSam Inactive
    BuckeyeSam
    @BuckeyeSam

    Disappointed in Cruz. I contributed out of the gate, but quickly gave up. I saw that he was impotent on illegal immigration, Muslim refugee settlement, worker visas, and trade. All the while he’s run a vicious campaign. The overwhelming evangelical bent was a mistake. And the endorsement from Glenn Beck?

    Cruz, now, is unelectable.

    • #54
  25. Grosseteste Thatcher
    Grosseteste
    @Grosseteste

    Congrats on being able to use Pataki in a punchline one more time!

    • #55
  26. Bucky Boz Member
    Bucky Boz
    @

    Tom Meyer, Ed.:

    Fred Cole:Add to that the atypical mood of the electorate, the fatigue at the end of an eight-year presidency, the general chaos of the world and the nation, the whims of the electoral process, and it becomes damn near impossible to predict anything.

    So then why the assumption that Cruz is unelectable?

    I agree that anyone who speaks with anything approaching confidence on the matter is pulling their own leg.

    That said …

    Fred Cole: He realized the key to Iowa was evangelical voters, so from his announcement, Cruz geared his campaign towards winning that block. He has a plan and he executes that plan with enormous discipline.

    So why hasn’t this brilliant strategy worked better? I mean, Cruz should have walked away with SC and most of the other Southern primaries and caucuses last night. With many of the Cruz-friendly primaries behind us, where does he grow?

    Just to be clear, though, Rubio’s single victory and string of 3rd-places has been sad, in both senses. If he can’t win Florida next week, then I agree it’s real hard to see how he wins.

    The primary electorate has been dramatically expanded to include Dems, Indies, and people who do not routinely vote.  Hence, the interest-group politics strategy of Cruz has not made him the frontrunner.

    • #56
  27. Valiuth Member
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    Well as a Rubio guy I never really got the whole line of attack that other candidates are really unelectable, except for Jeb! Who was after all a sad sack of potatoes…

    I have always said I like Cruz because I agree with him. I will gladly vote for him in a general, and even here in Illinois if it looks like that is what it takes to stop Trump. Rubio though always seemed to me like the kind of guy who would be the best at persuading people who are sitting on the fence about conservatism. While Cruz seems like the guy who would try to win with a get out the base strategy. Both I think are viable options. I can’t say which is better.

    All I can say is that on a personal basis I believe in Marco Rubio and I will support Ted Cruz. There is a difference. I just don’t know how representative I am of any important demographic.

    • #57
  28. Jason Turner Member
    Jason Turner
    @JasonTurner

    Cruz is electable, I just think that Rubio is more electable in a general election.

    • #58
  29. BD Member
    BD
    @

    Tom McKay (@thetomzone) on Twitter: “8 months from now on Fox* KARL ROVE: Rubio still has a path to the presidency if he darts between Trump and Justice Roberts during the oath.”

    The Establishment would rather Trump win than tell Rubio to get out and let Cruz take him on one-on-one.

    • #59
  30. Bucky Boz Member
    Bucky Boz
    @

    BD:Tom McKay (@thetomzone) on Twitter: “8 months from now on Fox* KARL ROVE: Rubio still has a path to the presidency if he darts between Trump and Justice Roberts during the oath.”

    The Establishment would rather let Trump win than tell Rubio to get out and let Cruz take him on one-on-one.

    Rove et. al. have an irrational hatred of Cruz, or at least doing exactly what Cruz wants them to do to substantiate his carefully cultivated outsider narrative.

    • #60
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