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Jeb to Pyrrhus: Sounds Like a Plan!
Jeb Bush has numerous problems. He is nearly the least likable of all of the Republican presidential candidates, performing almost as poorly as Trump. He polls nearly the worst head to head against his possible democratic opponents, with only Trump fairing as badly. Despite claims to the contrary, Bush’s record and public statements put him to the left of John Kasich; the man who has run on a platform of being marginally ashamed that he is a Republican. Simply put, Jeb Bush will never win the Republican nomination, and could not win the presidency if he did.
The Republican Party also has problems. Chief among them being Donald Trump. A Trump nomination could put a self-described socialist in the White House. Trump’s campaign is sustained by a minority of the electorate which, though dedicated, taps out at no more than a third of the total. He is the second choice of very few voters. If the field were winnowed to two opponents and Trump, his defeat would likely be inevitable. This is the reason that the Republican candidates have largely avoided going after the Donald with their negative advertising and speeches. They don’t see him as a long term threat. And he likely wouldn’t be, if Jeb Bush’s vanity did not insist upon continuing his campaign.
Much has been made of the “lanes” available in the Republican primary. Cruz has locked up the most conservative voters of the base, while Trump appeals to working class whites who have never really felt comfortable in the Republican coalition since having been abandoned by the Democrats. This leaves room for just one more candidate who appeals to moderates, and those who feel that neither Trump nor Cruz has a good chance of defeating their democratic opponent.
Jeb’s plan is to go completely scorched-earth on Kasich and Rubio, not elevating himself, but destroying his last viable competition so that he defaults his way into this third lane. From the ruins, he will now supposedly convince an electorate that hates him that he is the best suited to defeat the Democrats in November, despite ample evidence to the contrary.
Head to head polls this early in the election cycle have no real predictive power, but contain useful information none the less. It is not interesting that Rubio is defeating Clinton in a head to head matchup, as events can change the fundamentals of the election drastically over the next nine months. It is however interesting that Rubio consistently polls better than Cruz against either Clinton or Sanders, and that Cruz polls consistently better than Bush. The electability of each candidate relative to each other is clearly seen, and Jeb Bush is nearly as poor a choice for Republicans who want to win as Donald Trump.
It may be a bit unfair to Jeb that his surname became exceedingly unpopular with both the left and right in the decade since he left office. Yet we are conservatives and properly do not give a crap when entitled politicians feel they are being treated unfairly. Jeb simply cannot win. He will be unable to siphon any support from Trump or Cruz, and those most concerned with victory will be forced to support the Texas senator as he is the most electable of the candidates that would remain.
With no path to victory, what does Jeb’s continued presence in the race accomplish? Little but keeping better options from being able to rise in the third lane, leaving his party more likely to be defeated in November.
It can be difficult at times to understand the minds of men who work so hard and spend so much in the pursuit of power. Though they use much of the same language as the rest of us about working to preserve this nation for their grandchildren, we can see ample evidence that many are as ideologically flexible as their situation in politics allows. The power is the ends, not the means to do good works for the country.
If Jeb was primarily concerned with the future of the United States, and truly and deeply bought into the conservative principles he espouses, he would have dropped by now. What his campaign tells us more than anything else is that Jeb Bush is in the business of advancing the interests of Jeb Bush. His country be damned.
Published in General
He’s gone from 17th place to 6th. With momentum like that he’s unstoppable!
By the way, I have been concerned about this eventuality since the race began.
And it is my guess that Trump has known this all along, and he is counting on making up for the Republicans who can’t make themselves vote for him with blue-collar Democrats.
That’s how I’ve seen him winning the general election.
I volunteered to make Frank write about wanting Trump’s babies?!
Now all I’m picturing is this horrible karaoke duet between Trump and Frank…
At least it has a pro-life message, I guess.
My assumption was the third lane Frank was arguing for was mentally reserved for Rubio, based on his emphasis on polls of likeability and electability (until the next Quinnipiac Hillary/Marco matchup).
Rubio in that lane would have been formidable and acceptable to me, as Rubio is far from moderate.
I respect Frank’s take on politics too much to imagine he wishes Kasich to occupy that third lane.
Rubio is in no lane though. He’s stuck on the side of the road. In a steaming car with only 4th and reverse gears, like he was Saturday night for five minutes that lasted an eternity.
Yes, a Trump/Rubio/Cruz race was likelier to forestall a Trump nomination, especially with the April-June map staring at us.
Not going to happen.
I agree with Frank’s analysis. Jeb and his handlers should be ashamed.
I find this to be the understanding of the piece–now. But I think it is a bit premature. The process needs to play out before we can really get a grasp of what things will look like. Hell just a week ago Rubio couldn’t lose the nomination coming out of Iowa, now we need to take out three to four candidates Lubyanka style? It’s panic at the disco if you ask me.
Suggest you do the same. Nowhere did I say there is no downside to the field being fractured, just that the open borders money is toxic to winning the election. That is called extending a discussion in case you are not aware of the move. Not every reply to a point is a counterpoint.
But, I am glad you did not miss a chance to angrily lecture instead of talk. Forget the calm down advice, it would probably be fatal if you tried.
Ok this is going to need some support. What conservative media likes Putin?
If the conservative media loves Putin and sees their end goals in him there should be no problem providing multiple sources for this.
So, you really are unwilling take people at their word. To you, if someone is a Rubio supporter, then their entirety of opinions or observations on the race are invalid? If, to you, a person is wrong on Rubio, they are to be utterly scorned and mocked on everything else? Are only Cruz supporters allowed to say anything negative about Cruz? Is everyone else subject to personal attacks if they dare notice flaws or vulnerabilities? You distrust other Ricochet members that deeply? Over a primary candidate?
Most of us Rubio supporters have Cruz for our second choice (except for JofE, I imagine). We would take Cruz over Trump in a heartbeat. I’ll be the first to admit that both Rubio and Cruz are far from ideal candidates – if you Cruz supporters can’t admit that, well, then you have deeper issues than I thought.
I started out as a Walker man myself. I thought Cruz and Rubio were a couple of quaint little first termers who had no shot. The fact that they are now viable competitors and Walker, Perry and Jindahl are long gone – not to mention the fact that Trump is the leader – shows just how bat guano crazy this election cycle is! But as the saying goes, you either dance with the girls that are left or you don’t dance. The fact that Bush can’t figure out that this is not the cycle for an establishment governor shows how clueless the guy is.
Frank and I just want to get this thing down to Rubio and Cruz so we can duke it out without fear of a catastrophe in November. Bush is preventing that.
Man touchy.
Not at all what I am saying. Look, why write this piece now? Why wait until after NH to write this piece? If this is merely an observation of how the primaries are going now, why not have this piece after Iowa? I know Frank holds these opinions–that Trump needs to be defeated–but this particular piece on this particular day is just a bit more than coincidence.
And of course people can go after Cruz, so long as it is honest. I give you James’ pieces from last week. I know James doesn’t like Cruz, but at least he framed his critiques in an attempt to get at some truth, as opposed to twisting what is an obvious parliamentary trick into Cruz being the Devil. That I can’t stand because while we are supposed to just accept that Rubio has learned from his mistake, we are to damn Cruz for playing ball the DC way.
We will destroy you.
I agree that we need to wait a little longer, at least until after the South Carolina primary. With the three primaries, one from the Midwest, one from the Northeast, and one from the South, we will have a better idea of what’s what. New Hampshire is my favorite state, but I don’t see it as representative of very much. :)
Possibly because Trump won the NH primary in a big way? It does rather focus the mind.
My sentiments exactly.
Same here. Walker was my choice. I flirted with Jindal for a minute, but he never gained traction. The guy is super smart and fact that we have to go through this process without him is a shame.
I honestly waffle back and forth on Rubio as my second. Not because I think Cruz is perfect and it’s him or nobody, but because immigration is that big of a deal to me. The problem is that there isn’t a lot of day light between the two on this issue. But I can say this: there will not be an amnesty bill waiting for Cruz to sign after he’s sworn in. I can’t say that about Rubio, especially if there is a GOP Congress. The bill is sitting in Ryan’s desk just waiting. Yes, it is that important to me.
Which is why I am kind of chuckling about this. You guys are panicking and there are, thanks to Frank, only 7 delegates separating your boy from the Donald.
I would posit there are actually only two lanes to winning the GOP nomination. One is the hardline right lane, the other is the moderate right lane. Each lane probably enjoys a strong foothold in the GOP, but neither has a majority, the leader in each lane has to pull enough people in between to win the nomination. Typically the center-right lane has been better at this, probably because they have the better chance of pulling in enough of the center of the general electorate to win the general.
1/2
I would posit there are actually only two lanes to winning the GOP nomination. One is the hardline right lane, the other is the moderate right lane. Each lane probably enjoys a strong foothold in the GOP, but neither has a majority, the leader in each lane has to pull enough people in between to win the nomination. Typically the center-right lane has been better at this, probably because they have the better chance of pulling in enough of the center of the general electorate to win the general.
1/2
Very seriously.
My priorities are electing a conservative and preventing a Trump GOP nomination.
Cruz is my first choice, though with reservations about his church-based base-plus approach in purple states and his penchant for falling into Jimmy Swaggart schtick.
Rubio would be a superb POTUS, though I have my doubts about Rubio and a Dem Congress on a few key issues. Doubts are just a part of life.
If you think the result in NH was “Rubio finishing 1% behind Cruz” and “66 percent voted against Trump” you are not observing or thinking seriously.
Take a look at the primary map through March 15 and tell me where Trump loses and Rubio doesn’t finish third or worse.
Take a look at the map in April-June and forecast how many of those 800 WTA delegates Cruz takes from Trump?
The only other strategy might be a favorite son (sexist I know) strategy but the GOP is rightfully despised by a majority of voters this year and there are very few favorite sons or daughters.
Except that you were giving that impression, particularly with the pejoratives like “Rubes”.
Coincidence of what? You seem to be reading bias into the piece. There have been numerous pieces on Rico for many months begging Bush to just go away. What is so suspicious about another one coming after the first primary?
Honest according to whom? You accused me repeatedly, for instance, of dishonesty in pointing out that Cruz’s style of argument and delivery is deeply off-putting to many even on our own side – something which has oft been borne out in polling, and echoed by many here and elsewhere. Was I dishonest in drawing attention to that fact? Are others dishonest when they point out polling data?
Indeed, if Rubio doesn’t find solid footing by 3/15, then he too should step aside if it allows Cruz to beat Trump.
He is in the center right lane, but about as far to the right in that lane as a republican can be. That is actually the best place to be to win the nomination this year. He just has to clear the rest of the lane, which he is more capable of than his rivals in every way except for the issue of money.
Cruz has a similar problem in his lane, the hardline lane. He has less competition than Rubio, but his opponent is more formidable. Both Rubio and Cruz need help to open up their path, but make no mistake, there are two paths: Cruz and Trump are on one, Rubio et al. are on the other. Rubio needs help in the form of getting Bush and Kasich supporters and donors to abandon them with enough time for him to still win the delegates he needs.
Cruz needs the help of the middle of party to clear his lane because he cannot knockout Trump from his lane by himself. The only way Cruz gets that support of the middle is if Jeb defeats Rubio and the middle of the party rejects Bush, which they no doubt would. But like Rubio, Cruz needs Bush to take down Rubio fairly quickly. If Bush and Rubio are still battling into April, Cruz has to hope that the middle of the party voters get so nervous about the moderate path they just give up on it.
Well, at least you don’t think Cruz is the Messiah, even though he tends to act like! ;)
Both Cruz and Rubio have some issues but they’re all we have in terms of viable candidates and I would prefer a choice between the two because I fear Cruz’s issues may be more serious.
Right. Unless he can tame that, I don’t see him doing at all well in the rust belt swing states. There are lots of fence sitters here in Ohio, and nearby in PA, WVA, Kentucky, and MI who love Trump, would likely vote for Rubio, but cringe at Cruz. Not sure they’d take Hildabeast, but they might sit it out instead.
There are actually a lot of purple states before 3/15. Over half the states will have been contested before then, actually, I believe 27 to be exact. Rubio can definitely win some of those states, like Massachusetts, assuming Kasich continues to fade and have trouble raising money. What’s more third places are just fine in proportional states as long Rubio is a strong third.
My boy?
I think Rubio has a shot at beating Cruz and maybe even Trump in some of the following states before the winner take all contests start on 3/15:
Nevada, Alaska, Colorado, Massachusetts, Minnesota, North Dakota, Vermont, Virginia, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska, Hawaii, Michigan, Washington DC
Uh when? Dishonesty? I might have criticized the assessment, but I doubt I said dishonest. And by the very info in this piece I think that is off the mark when Frank’s chart clearly shows Cruz with only 39% unfavorable. Clearly, that is a bit of a stretch to go from 39% to “many on our side.” Polling data is what it is. It’s not dishonest to take a peek at it. It is dishonest to take a poll that has maybe 1000 LV as its sample and say that represents a country of 320 million, or roughly 120 million voters.
Yeah some of those were mentioned in the NYT piece I posted on page four’s comments, might be five’s.
Interestingly enough nobody on here has commented on that little ditty.