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Jeb to Pyrrhus: Sounds Like a Plan!
Jeb Bush has numerous problems. He is nearly the least likable of all of the Republican presidential candidates, performing almost as poorly as Trump. He polls nearly the worst head to head against his possible democratic opponents, with only Trump fairing as badly. Despite claims to the contrary, Bush’s record and public statements put him to the left of John Kasich; the man who has run on a platform of being marginally ashamed that he is a Republican. Simply put, Jeb Bush will never win the Republican nomination, and could not win the presidency if he did.
The Republican Party also has problems. Chief among them being Donald Trump. A Trump nomination could put a self-described socialist in the White House. Trump’s campaign is sustained by a minority of the electorate which, though dedicated, taps out at no more than a third of the total. He is the second choice of very few voters. If the field were winnowed to two opponents and Trump, his defeat would likely be inevitable. This is the reason that the Republican candidates have largely avoided going after the Donald with their negative advertising and speeches. They don’t see him as a long term threat. And he likely wouldn’t be, if Jeb Bush’s vanity did not insist upon continuing his campaign.
Much has been made of the “lanes” available in the Republican primary. Cruz has locked up the most conservative voters of the base, while Trump appeals to working class whites who have never really felt comfortable in the Republican coalition since having been abandoned by the Democrats. This leaves room for just one more candidate who appeals to moderates, and those who feel that neither Trump nor Cruz has a good chance of defeating their democratic opponent.
Jeb’s plan is to go completely scorched-earth on Kasich and Rubio, not elevating himself, but destroying his last viable competition so that he defaults his way into this third lane. From the ruins, he will now supposedly convince an electorate that hates him that he is the best suited to defeat the Democrats in November, despite ample evidence to the contrary.
Head to head polls this early in the election cycle have no real predictive power, but contain useful information none the less. It is not interesting that Rubio is defeating Clinton in a head to head matchup, as events can change the fundamentals of the election drastically over the next nine months. It is however interesting that Rubio consistently polls better than Cruz against either Clinton or Sanders, and that Cruz polls consistently better than Bush. The electability of each candidate relative to each other is clearly seen, and Jeb Bush is nearly as poor a choice for Republicans who want to win as Donald Trump.
It may be a bit unfair to Jeb that his surname became exceedingly unpopular with both the left and right in the decade since he left office. Yet we are conservatives and properly do not give a crap when entitled politicians feel they are being treated unfairly. Jeb simply cannot win. He will be unable to siphon any support from Trump or Cruz, and those most concerned with victory will be forced to support the Texas senator as he is the most electable of the candidates that would remain.
With no path to victory, what does Jeb’s continued presence in the race accomplish? Little but keeping better options from being able to rise in the third lane, leaving his party more likely to be defeated in November.
It can be difficult at times to understand the minds of men who work so hard and spend so much in the pursuit of power. Though they use much of the same language as the rest of us about working to preserve this nation for their grandchildren, we can see ample evidence that many are as ideologically flexible as their situation in politics allows. The power is the ends, not the means to do good works for the country.
If Jeb was primarily concerned with the future of the United States, and truly and deeply bought into the conservative principles he espouses, he would have dropped by now. What his campaign tells us more than anything else is that Jeb Bush is in the business of advancing the interests of Jeb Bush. His country be damned.
Published in General
Glad to see you get a kick out of name calling. It’s one thing to defend your guy, it’s fine to attack your guy’s opponent. But it’s poor sportsmanship to keep insulting the fans of the your guy’s opponent. Ricochet isn’t Red State or Breitbart, or the comment section on Youtube.
Actual delegate counts.
Trump:17
Cruz:11
Rubio:10
If this is a football game, the non-trump candidates are only separated by a point.
Or, as much to the point, if all the other no-hope candidates would just quit already (and I personally think you should have gone after Christie more than ¡Jeb!) then either Cruz or Rubio would be more likely to put Trump out of the race.
Interestingly enough, it’s Eli you want in the post-season. Just saying.
No comrade. We need diversity, which means a variety of parties that hate the free market. Ergo Republicans will be brought in under the “winning” guise of donald trump. In all honesty though, the Republicans had to open the tent in order to survive 1932 and that unfortunately meant bringing in some interventionists.
Ever since then we, conservatives, have had to slowly regain control and influence. trump simply symbolizes the remnants of those interventionists fighting. In time, we will convince them to rectify the error of their ways.
Robert,
Cruz is orders of magnitude better than Trump. He will have my support if he wins (where as Trump will not). But Cruz may well lose to Trump even if he is the only remaining candidate.
As Tim Alberta pointed out at the NR event in NH on Saturday, the super Tuesday states are all proportional, so while Cruz will win most of them, he never establishes a lead. The mid march states are mostly winner take all, and Trump is much more likely to win those than Cruz, as the moderate states are more comfortable with Trump than Cruz. I’ll stipulate that this is a sign that they are off their rockers.
We are genuinely at a moment where Trump could win the Republican nomination. Jeb dropping makes this far less likely.
Okay fine, but it’s going to happen just be patient. All I am seeing today is “Rubio is the ONE and these damned nobodies are preventing him from his destiny.” It sounds, well, whiny. Let the process play out. I have seen at least two posts on here today where the sentiment was basically “wah, wah, wah, Rubio got shafted because of that meanie Christie and Bush took his lunch money in NH, wah, wah, wah.”
Yes, well before Trump became a threat, all of the Rubio supporters were saying that this perfect because it will keep Rubio within striking distance of Cruz and when they go into the blue, winner-take-all states Rubio comes out on top. Now the plan has met reality and it seems to be falling a part and you don’t like it.
That’s not what I’m doing here. This post stems from a genuine fear that Trump is going to win.
I challenge you to find me saying that.
And, call me cynical, but I highly doubt your are more interested in beating Trump than you are getting Rubio nominated. Let’s just look at things as they are. If it were just Trump, Cruz, Rubio, the chances that people supporting Christie, Jeb, Kasich, and Carly (now) would split between Rubio and Cruz is not likely–at least I suspect that is your hope. I suspect that you hope most of them go to Rubio–after all, as I stated–getting to the winner take all with Trump was part of the plan for nominating Rubio. So don’t try to tell me that you are interested in Trump leaving for the sake of Cruz having a shot.
Yeah, in time, given the trajectory of “conservatives” over the last 8 years, I predict an analog to the French National Front, British UKIP or Putin’s Russia emerging. But that’s why “conservative” media loves Putin so much. They see their end goals in him.
I actually think Frank is suggesting lets attack the guy who is taking vote share from the other candidates but cannot win.
What is your compelling argument for the Bush candidacy and what is his path to victory (not just in the primary but in the general election).
If Bush cannot win, which he can’t because the majority of Democrats, Independents and Republicans dislike him, then all he is doing is insuring a Trump victory. You seem to hate Trump and his voters, so why are you not supporting a clear method of defeating Trump?
Did I say you? I believe the exact quote was “Rubio supporters.” In fact this WAS the Rubio campaign plan. But since you asked for some level of proof:
This is why I think Rubio surprised in Iowa and didn’t do very well in NH because he is not focusing on early states. I don’t think this had anything to do with some debate on a Saturday that probably no one statistically saw. It wasn’t Christie, or Jeb, or Kasich. It was a strategy that Rubio needs to hang on until the winner take all states. Frank, I say you need to be patient and see how this plays.
BWAHAHAHAHA!!!!! Color me skeptical to say the least.
OK, cynical. Does that help?
But seriously, I’m an undecided married to an enthusiastic Cruzer, and I have no trouble believing Frank.
Which was argued exactly nowhere on this post.
This is beating around the Bush :-)
Rubio has no path to a path.
His campaign set him up to succeed Saturday and failed utterly, embarrassingly and memorably.
Rewind the tape of time and maybe Marco wins the exchange with Christie, the rest of the debate (which he did Saturday) and clears out the guv lane in SC.
Rubio is your 5th place finisher in NH, a few votes ahead of Christie. Politics is cruel.
My Trump supporter freind is fixated on tariffs, the border, and the fact Trump is an outsider and is going to clean up everything concerning business (send boatloads of China stuff back and create jobs here). I am pretty sure that is how he will vote here in MI, because he screamed at me that things couldn’t get any f’ing worse and I was an idiot for not seeing that. Ford should not be allowed to make cars in Mexico either. He’s latched on to those points since Trump’s appearance last summer. He also gives to both parties because his business involves getting government contracts. All the other candidates cannot be trusted and spend money recklessly in Washington to do favors for lobbyists. Ironic.
Every vote for anybody other than Gilmore is a vote for trump. Since only gilmore can unit all the factions, every vote for someone other than gilmore is a vote for bernie sanders.
Seriously Gilmore looks pretty solid. I think I may vote for him in hte primary.
Him or Trump.
I have been waiting 4 years to say this: Shut up and send money.
Oh come on. A post dedicated to why Jeb should drop out that doesn’t mention Trump–until mentioned by a commenter–suddenly becomes a piece about why Jeb should drop out because it will prevent Trump from winning is not the consternation of a Rubio supporter?
EDIT: Okay I went back and scanned the piece. It does mention Trump and how that would be bad for the GOP if he were the nominee. So I take back mostly what I said about this sounding like a bunch of Rubio supporters whining.
Robert, why does every primary post, for you, come back to you bashing Rubio and Rubio supporters? Frank could just as well have written a post entitled “I LOVE DONALD TRUMP AND WANT HIS BABIES!” and you would still find some angle to accuse him of being a closet Rubio supporter. I could put up a post called “Kasich will lock up the Cranky Moderate Vote” and you’d read it as support for Rubio. Are you unwilling or unable to take people at their word here?
Seriously, dude? Rubio finished 1% behind your guy Cruz, who was as close to 6th place as he was to second. Cruz is likely to get whipped just as bad in all the other purple and blue states as well.
Guru for Gilmore!
Oh man, this post has got to happen!
Glad you’ve volunteered!
But he isn’t a closet Rubio supporter. He is a vocal Rubio supporter. Look, when folks post smug comments or pieces about why Cruz will never win and then I see on the side bar 45% of the Ricochetti support Rubio, am I to supposed the person saying it is a Gilmore fan?
Okay Rubesters, I want you take a long hard look at this. The highlighted section is exactly why posts like this talking about “so and so needs to drop NOW” are comical. There is a lot of primary left. I know some of you don’t like being laughed at, but seriously there are another 48 primaries to go before the convention in July. Let the process play out. That is literally all I am saying here.
I don’t think it matters in this context which candidate Frank supports.
My sense is that what he is concerned about is that it is possible that Trump with only a third of the party behind him could get the nomination just because of the way the numbers fall out in terms of delegates.
I really wish I knew what in the hell you were talking about. What “conservative” media are you talking about? And UKIP is pretty cool if you ask me.