Jeb to Pyrrhus: Sounds Like a Plan!

 

Jeb BushJeb Bush has numerous problems. He is nearly the least likable of all of the Republican presidential candidates, performing almost as poorly as Trump. He polls nearly the worst head to head against his possible democratic opponents, with only Trump fairing as badly. Despite claims to the contrary, Bush’s record and public statements put him to the left of John Kasich; the man who has run on a platform of being marginally ashamed that he is a Republican. Simply put, Jeb Bush will never win the Republican nomination, and could not win the presidency if he did.

The Republican Party also has problems. Chief among them being Donald Trump. A Trump nomination could put a self-described socialist in the White House. Trump’s campaign is sustained by a minority of the electorate which, though dedicated, taps out at no more than a third of the total. He is the second choice of very few voters. If the field were winnowed to two opponents and Trump, his defeat would likely be inevitable. This is the reason that the Republican candidates have largely avoided going after the Donald with their negative advertising and speeches. They don’t see him as a long term threat. And he likely wouldn’t be, if Jeb Bush’s vanity did not insist upon continuing his campaign.

Much has been made of the “lanes” available in the Republican primary. Cruz has locked up the most conservative voters of the base, while Trump appeals to working class whites who have never really felt comfortable in the Republican coalition since having been abandoned by the Democrats. This leaves room for just one more candidate who appeals to moderates, and those who feel that neither Trump nor Cruz has a good chance of defeating their democratic opponent.

Jeb’s plan is to go completely scorched-earth on Kasich and Rubio, not elevating himself, but destroying his last viable competition so that he defaults his way into this third lane. From the ruins, he will now supposedly convince an electorate that hates him that he is the best suited to defeat the Democrats in November, despite ample evidence to the contrary.

likability

Head to head polls this early in the election cycle have no real predictive power, but contain useful information none the less. It is not interesting that Rubio is defeating Clinton in a head to head matchup, as events can change the fundamentals of the election drastically over the next nine months. It is however interesting that Rubio consistently polls better than Cruz against either Clinton or Sanders, and that Cruz polls consistently better than Bush. The electability of each candidate relative to each other is clearly seen, and Jeb Bush is nearly as poor a choice for Republicans who want to win as Donald Trump.

It may be a bit unfair to Jeb that his surname became exceedingly unpopular with both the left and right in the decade since he left office. Yet we are conservatives and properly do not give a crap when entitled politicians feel they are being treated unfairly. Jeb simply cannot win. He will be unable to siphon any support from Trump or Cruz, and those most concerned with victory will be forced to support the Texas senator as he is the most electable of the candidates that would remain.

With no path to victory, what does Jeb’s continued presence in the race accomplish? Little but keeping better options from being able to rise in the third lane, leaving his party more likely to be defeated in November.

It can be difficult at times to understand the minds of men who work so hard and spend so much in the pursuit of power. Though they use much of the same language as the rest of us about working to preserve this nation for their grandchildren, we can see ample evidence that many are as ideologically flexible as their situation in politics allows. The power is the ends, not the means to do good works for the country.

If Jeb was primarily concerned with the future of the United States, and truly and deeply bought into the conservative principles he espouses, he would have dropped by now. What his campaign tells us more than anything else is that Jeb Bush is in the business of advancing the interests of Jeb Bush.  His country be damned.

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  1. Austin Murrey Inactive
    Austin Murrey
    @AustinMurrey

    Frank Soto: The electability of each candidate relative to each other is clearly seen, and Jeb Bush is nearly as poor a choice for Republicans who want to win as Donald Trump.

    This is an excellent analysis, but I urge everyone concerned with victory to discard the chimera of electability.

    A candidate has to stand for more than victory.

    • #1
  2. Douglas Inactive
    Douglas
    @Douglas

    Austin Murrey:

    Frank Soto: The electability of each candidate relative to each other is clearly seen, and Jeb Bush is nearly as poor a choice for Republicans who want to win as Donald Trump.

    This is an excellent analysis, but I urge everyone concerned with victory to discard the chimera of electability.

    A candidate has to stand for more than victory.

    “Electable” is constantly shifting. A lot of people lost because they were elevated to a nomination because some said “he’s the most electable”. Electability is ultimately decided by elections themselves.

    • #2
  3. AIG Inactive
    AIG
    @AIG

    Frank Soto: Trump’s campaign is sustained by a minority of the electorate which, though dedicated, taps out at no more than a third of the total.

    30% of “conservative” voters want to vote for a self-described socialist Mussolini type. I’ve only been saying this for the past 2 years.

    Frank Soto: If Jeb was primarily concerned with the future of the United States, and truly and deeply bought into the conservative principles he espouses, he would have dropped by now. What his campaign tells us more than anything else is that Jeb Bush is in the business of advancing the interests of Jeb Bush. His country be damned.

    Sorry but, where does this logic flow from? Why is him running, be “damning” to his country?

    Shouldn’t you “true real not fake at all conservatives” be writing articles against the clown who won 35% of the “conservative” vote, instead of…all of his opponents?

    Cause you’re afraid of the blow-back from his “base”. That’s why. Because you realize that Trump is what the “conservative” movement has become. You’re just hoping to convince enough of them to vote for someone less clownish, for the sake of political expediency.

    But lets talk about those “principles” now.

    • #3
  4. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    I agree pretty strongly with this post. However, I actually blame Jeb! less than I blame the political machine around him. When you have a bunch of people around you stating that you should run for President, and you raised a whole bunch of money from people that expect you to run for President, it is hard to not run for President. That being said, anybody that is still donating to the Jeb! campaign is doing themselves and the Republican party a grave disservice.

    • #4
  5. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    AIG:

    Frank Soto: Trump’s campaign is sustained by a minority of the electorate which, though dedicated, taps out at no more than a third of the total.

    30% of “conservative” voters want to vote for a self-described socialist Mussolini type. I’ve only been saying this for the past 2 years.

    Frank Soto: If Jeb was primarily concerned with the future of the United States, and truly and deeply bought into the conservative principles he espouses, he would have dropped by now. What his campaign tells us more than anything else is that Jeb Bush is in the business of advancing the interests of Jeb Bush. His country be damned.

    Sorry but, where does this logic flow from? Why is him running, be “damning” to his country?

    Shouldn’t you “true real not fake at all conservatives” be writing articles against the clown who won 35% of the “conservative” vote, instead of…all of his opponents?

    Jeb is the reason Trump can win primaries with so little of the vote.  When Jeb drops, Trump is done.

    • #5
  6. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    Douglas:

    Austin Murrey:

    Frank Soto: The electability of each candidate relative to each other is clearly seen, and Jeb Bush is nearly as poor a choice for Republicans who want to win as Donald Trump.

    This is an excellent analysis, but I urge everyone concerned with victory to discard the chimera of electability.

    A candidate has to stand for more than victory.

    “Electable” is constantly shifting. A lot of people lost because they were elevated to a nomination because some said “he’s the most electable”. Electability is ultimately decided by elections themselves.

    This isn’t true.  Despite all claims to the contrary, we know how accurate polling is under different circumstances.  An average of polling on a national contest gives us an extremely accurate result.

    We know that Jeb is less electable than Cruz.  We know that Rubio is more electable than Cruz.

    Now Cruz might win the election, as the democrats have weak candidates and a poor track record to run on.  I find it unlikely that Bush would win, as he remarkably unpopular with every demographic group.

    • #6
  7. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Trump and Cruz are the only viable GOP candidates left. The others are just wasting their time, and ours.

    • #7
  8. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    So, if you are correct, to which candidate does all the millions of dollars of open borders money flow?

    Cruz? Probably not, Ted wants the Trump voters

    Kasich? Even the donors are not that crazy, Kasich is the GOP version of Bernie, spending other peoples money.

    Rubio?  Marco needs their support like he needs the Robot gag.

    Jeb money has strings attached. He has no voters to give, but he does give donors, donors with agendas.

    Jeb is doing the country a service keeping that money wasted.

    Frank- just a question since you seem to have ready sources. What was Reagan’s unfavorable six months before the 1980 election?

    Also, did anyone tell Jeb about Lasik? Sheesh, he looks so 20th century.

    • #8
  9. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    Mike LaRoche:Trump and Cruz are the only viable GOP candidates left. The others are just wasting their time, and ours.

    Vanity, thy name is Politician.

    I would add Rubio to the mix, but we’ll see how he actually fares in the next rounds.

    I said this in another post here today, but when you consider that 2/3 of Republican voters in NH voted for anyone other than Trump, then the best way to get Trump out is to narrow the field down.  If Kasich, Bush, Christie, and Carson got the heck out of the way, then the field would be cleared for Cruz or Rubio to actually knock out Trump.  So why the heck do they stay in?  It’s either vanity (their egos won’t let them), vainglory (they still think they have a shot – I’d lump Kasich here), or vendetta (they hate Rubio and / or Cruz so deeply that would prefer to take them out, even if it meant losing in November).

    • #9
  10. She Member
    She
    @She

    Z in MT:I agree pretty strongly with this post. However, I actually blame Jeb! less than I blame the political machine around him. When you have a bunch of people around you stating that you should run for President, and you raised a whole bunch of money from people that expect you to run for President, it is hard to not run for President. That being said, anybody that is still donating to the Jeb! campaign is doing themselves and the Republican party a grave disservice.

    Yes.  One of the biggest problems with Jeb!’s campaign from the start has been that he hasn’t seemed to have his heart in it, and he doesn’t sound convinced of his own merit.  I do think he was railroaded into this by a bunch of people with money who thought he would be an easy sell.  But it hasn’t turned out that way, and he might have done even worse in NH had 90-year old Barbara not shown up Donald Trump (that p—y!), by campaigning for her son regardless of the weather.

    I’ll be interested to see what the effects of Trump going full-negative on Kasich and Rubio turn out to be.  Chris Christie managed to wound Rubio (and we have yet to see if Rubio can rebound), but the effect on Christie himself seems to have been terminal.

    Hard to see how these guys are going to unite behind their inevitable candidate, no matter who it is.

    • #10
  11. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    TKC1101:So, if you are correct, to which candidate does all the millions of dollars of open borders money flow?

    Cruz? Probably not, Ted wants the Trump voters

    Kasich? Even the donors are not that crazy, Kasich is the GOP version of Bernie, spending other peoples money.

    Rubio? Marco needs their support like he needs the Robot gag.

    Jeb money has strings attached. He has no voters to give, but he does give donors, donors with agendas.

    Jeb is doing the country a service keeping that money wasted.

    If the crowd remains as large as it presently is, Trump beats Cruz.

    If you don’t see the crisis of Donald Trump as our nominee, then there is nothing I can say that will convince you of it.

    • #11
  12. Judge Mental Member
    Judge Mental
    @JudgeMental

    Mike LaRoche:Trump and Cruz are the only viable GOP candidates left. The others are just wasting their time, and ours.

    With just those two, it would be interesting to see which way the establishment goes.

    • #12
  13. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    Frank Soto: If you don’t see the crisis of Donald Trump as our nominee, then there is nothing I can say that will convince you of it.

    I do not recall asking to be convinced, I just wanted your take on where Jeb’s money would go. Calm down, Frank.

    I did add a question to that post I would like you to answer if you can:

    Frank- just a question since you seem to have ready sources. What was Reagan’s unfavorable six months before the 1980 election?

    • #13
  14. AIG Inactive
    AIG
    @AIG

    Frank Soto: Jeb is the reason Trump can win primaries with so little of the vote. When Jeb drops, Trump is done.

    Jeb is the reason 35% of “conservative” voters are narcissists voting for America’s Putin.

    Ok, thanks for the clarification.

    • #14
  15. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    Frank Soto: Jeb is the reason Trump can win primaries with so little of the vote. When Jeb drops, Trump is done.

    I don’t think that’s true. Trump’s appeal is broader than the anti-Jeb group. He is appealing to the people who feel threatened by the H1B visa programs as well as the people concerned with illegal immigration–which would be many small-town and small-city residents who are seeing the impact of immigration on their schools and hospitals.  And he appears to be pro-business. (People are blaming Chris Christie for Rubio’s poor results in New Hampshire, but I’d bet it had as much to do with his increasing the H1B visa quotas in the Gang of Eight failed compromise.) Trump’s support would go to Cruz. That gets to only about half the party.

    In fact, I think we’d have to combine Jeb and Rubio to get an accurate picture of the Republican sentiment.

    I would put Kasich in a group of “thousand points of light” Bush 41 small group of older Republicans, by himself probably. I don’t know where those voters will go, but I think they’d probably end up with Jeb but maybe Sanders, truthfully. It was funny when Kasich said he should have run as a Democrat. :)

    I don’t think Jeb’s getting out at this point is going to change anything except consolidate Rubio’s support.

    • #15
  16. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    TKC1101:

    Frank Soto: If you don’t see the crisis of Donald Trump as our nominee, then there is nothing I can say that will convince you of it.

    I do not recall asking to be convinced, I just wanted your take on where Jeb’s money would go. Calm down, Frank.

    Why is there consistently an assumption that I am upset and need to calm down when I make points in a discussion about candidates?  Bizarre.

    • #16
  17. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    MarciN:

    Frank Soto: Jeb is the reason Trump can win primaries with so little of the vote. When Jeb drops, Trump is done.

    I don’t think that’s true. Trump’s appeal is broader than the anti-Jeb group. He is appealing to the people who feel threatened by the H1B visa programs as well as the people concerned with illegal immigration–which would be many small-town and small-city residents who are seeing the impact of immigration on their schools and hospitals. And he appears to be pro-business.

    Marci,

    The point made in the post is that Trump has a clear ceiling, and is very few people’s second choice.  As the field thins, he won’t do any better.  He can only win if the opposition remains fragmented.

    • #17
  18. skipsul Inactive
    skipsul
    @skipsul

    MarciN: . People are blaming Chris Christie for Rubio’s poor results in New Hampshire, but I’d bet it had as much to do with his increasing the H1B visa quotas in the Gang of Eight failed compromise.

    My sister (who lives in NH) has her own take on this.  Been trying to get her to join up here so she can explain it herself.

    Short version – NH is complicated, and Kasich has practically lived there for the last year.  Cruz is not much liked there, nor is Rubio.

    • #18
  19. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    AIG:

    Frank Soto: Jeb is the reason Trump can win primaries with so little of the vote. When Jeb drops, Trump is done.

    Jeb is the reason 35% of “conservative” voters are narcissists voting for America’s Putin.

    Ok, thanks for the clarification.

    The point made in the post is that Trump has a clear ceiling, and is very few people’s second choice. As the field thins, he won’t do any better. He can only win if the opposition remains fragmented.

    I’m going to have to make a macro for pasting this.  Please try to read the arguments of a post before engaging in the discussion.

    • #19
  20. AIG Inactive
    AIG
    @AIG

    MarciN: He is appealing to the people who feel threatened by the H1B visa programs

    Pretty sure computer programmers at Microsoft are not Trump’s base.

    And if anyone is threatened by Indian software engineers making $120k/year, or illiterate Mexican immigrants who can’t speak a word of English, neither of whom live in those “small town communities” you described…then you are in essence describing people who are acting out of fear and ignorance of a non-existent problem.

    I.e., you’re exactly right.

    I find it strange that Trumpians in New Hampshire are so concerned about illegal immigration, even though there’s hardly any immigrants in New Hampshire, but people here in Texas where they all are, don’t seem so concerned.

    • #20
  21. Valiuth 🚫 Banned
    Valiuth
    @Valiuth

    She:I’ll be interested to see what the effects of Trump going full-negative on Kasich and Rubio turn out to be. Chris Christie managed to wound Rubio (and we have yet to see if Rubio can rebound), but the effect on Christie himself seems to have been terminal.

    Rubio wounded himself mostly, by falling on the dagger Christie stuck out. An unfortunate event, but one that could have been avoided. Remember how deftly he beat down Jeb!’s attack on his absent voting record? Sometimes you just roll a one (for my D&D nerds).

    I am dubious at how much damage Jeb!’s negative adds will do. They didn’t work well in Iowa. I think one good debate performance for Rubio and he will be back on steady feet, though I don’t know if that means he will be able to catch up. Also, how will Kasich do when Trump turns on them. Because if Trump has to gather more votes to fend of Cruz the establishment lane is his best bet. Which of those guys can withstand Trump the longest?

    Also I have a second theory. I always figured at the onset, back before Trump, or even Jeb! That Marco was running for VP to someone like Perry or Walker. Marco still makes a good VP choice for someone like Trump, as he brings youth, Florida, like ability, good relations with the establishment, and “diversity”. Marco can always choose to aim lower.

    • #21
  22. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    TKC1101: Frank- just a question since you seem to have ready sources. What was Reagan’s unfavorable six months before the 1980 election?

    What would be relevant to my points is what was George Bush senior’s polling head to head with Carter compared to Reagan’s head to head with Carter.

    I have never found this type of polling for that election, but significantly doubt Reagan polled worse than Bush over an average of polling.

    There was a conventional wisdom that Reagan was a poor choice, but no data that I can find.  Reagan did always score well on likability polls.

    • #22
  23. AIG Inactive
    AIG
    @AIG

    Frank Soto: The point made in the post is that Trump has a clear ceiling, and is very few people’s second choice. As the field thins, he won’t do any better. He can only win if the opposition remains fragmented.

    So your argument is, lets pick on Trumps opponents to weaken Trump.

    And you do this, because you realize quite well that Trump does represent the majority of the “conservative” base at this point. So instead of admitting the huge cognitive dissonance and self-destructive positions of the “conservative” base, you’re just hoping to counter-balance them enough.

    Well, I’ll admit that that is one way to deal with them. Until the next election (Republicans will certainly lose this one), when they are no longer 35% but 50%.

    At some point, the Republicans and “conservatives” will have to deal with this monster they have created.

    • #23
  24. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    Frank Soto: Why is there consistently an assumption that I am upset and need to calm down when I make points in a discussion about candidates? Bizarre.

    It could be because I did not mention Trump and rather than answer a question on your post you went to DEFCON 4. But aside from that, how was your day?

    • #24
  25. AIG Inactive
    AIG
    @AIG

    Frank Soto: Please try to read the arguments of a post before engaging in the discussion.

    I read your arguments. I’m just not convinced this addresses the problem which is Trump.

    • #25
  26. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    AIG:

    Frank Soto: The point made in the post is that Trump has a clear ceiling, and is very few people’s second choice. As the field thins, he won’t do any better. He can only win if the opposition remains fragmented.

    So your argument is, lets pick on Trumps opponents to weaken Trump.

    No, my argument is clearly that a man who can’t win should drop so that the field thins.  I was abundantly clear about this.

    And you do this, because you realize quite well that Trump does represent the majority of the “conservative” base at this point.

    No, he clearly represents a plurality of the base.  Hence my point that he will be beaten when Jeb drops.

    At some point, the Republicans and “conservatives” will have to deal with this monster they have created.

    Trump is Buchanan with celebrity status.  His supporters are not inherently conservative.

    • #26
  27. Midget Faded Rattlesnake Inactive
    Midget Faded Rattlesnake
    @Midge

    AIG:

    MarciN: He is appealing to the people who feel threatened by the H1B visa programs

    …then you are in essence describing people who are acting out of fear and ignorance of a non-existent problem.I.e., you’re exactly right.

    People acting out of fear or ignorance aren’t necessarily narcissists, though:

    AIG: 35% of “conservative” voters are narcissists voting for America’s Putin.

    Granted, I’ve met one or two wealthier Trump supporters who would best be described simply as narcissists admiring a fellow narcissist, but I doubt it makes sense to characterize the typical Trump supporter that way.

    • #27
  28. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    skipsul:My sister (who lives in NH) has her own take on this. Been trying to get her to join up here so she can explain it herself.

    Short version – NH is complicated, and Kasich has practically lived there for the last year. Cruz is not much liked there, nor is Rubio.

    I can see that, and for that reason, I don’t think NH is typical of the rest of the country.

    I was not at all surprised to see that Kasich did as well there as he did. :) :)

    Kasich speaks to a part of the Republican Party that is steadily shrinking but that used to be bigger. There are a lot of them in New Hampshire.

    • #28
  29. AIG Inactive
    AIG
    @AIG

    Frank Soto: No, my argument is clearly that a man who can’t win should drop so that the field thins. I was abundantly clear about this.

    None of the candidates can win on their own. Why Jeb specifically then? Rubio should drop out too.

    Frank Soto: No, he clearly represents a plurality of the base. Hence my point that he will be beaten when Jeb drops.

    A plurality of Republicans. A majority of self-described “conservatives”. Aren’t we always told that the rest of us are just RINOs? So clearly there’s at least 2 bases.

    Frank Soto: Trump is Buchanan with celebrity status. His supporters are not inherently conservative.

    That’s not what they say.

    • #29
  30. Frank Soto Inactive
    Frank Soto
    @FrankSoto

    TKC1101:

    Frank Soto: Why is there consistently an assumption that I am upset and need to calm down when I make points in a discussion about candidates? Bizarre.

    It could be because I did not mention Trump and rather than answer a question on your post you went to DEFCON 4.

    I mentioned Trump because you said there is no downside to the field remaining fractured.  I argued him winning is a downside, and the likely result of the field remaining fractured.  It was wholly relevant.

    Maybe just stick to arguments in play instead of trying to read motivations.

    • #30
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