A Tale of Two Senators

 

920x920He was the most conservative of senators; He was nearly the most conservative of senators.  He rode to office on a wave of anti-establishment support; He also rode to office on a wave of anti-establishment support. He supported amnesty (or lied about it); He also supported amnesty. Really, there wasn’t a dime’s worth of policy difference between them. Yet one was the darling of the right, and one was the establishment hack.

Narratives can take on a life of their own. Nowhere is this more evident than the contest between Senators Cruz and Rubio. By any objective measurement, the two are remarkably similar in terms of voting records and preferred policy positions.  Despite this reality, it has become almost a cliché that Cruz is the anti-establishment hero of the right, while Rubio is a puppet of GOP leadership.

Cruz boasts an impressive 100% rating from Heritage Action. Rubio holds a meager 94%. For reference, the average Republican in the Senate scores a 60%. Perhaps you feel the Heritage Foundation is just an arm of the illuminati establishment, and uses these score cards to trick you into voting for their preferred lapdogs. We can instead look at the American Conservative Union’s ratings if you prefer, though they rate the contest closer. Rubio’s 98% lifetime rating is technically lower than Cruz’s 100%, though in practice you need a magnifying glass to detect the differences. Club for Growth has Rubio at 93%, to Cruz’s 96%.

Rubio’s detractors often point to National Journal’s ranking of him as only the 17th most conservative senator as a sign that he is not far enough to the right to get their support. “Establishment tool!” they exclaim, seemingly unaware that the National Journal bases it rankings on how members vote in relation to party leadership. Rubio’s low rating is innately tied to how often he disagrees with Mitch McConnell. Scoring poorly on a loyalty ranking is now considered evidence of being too deferential to party leadership.

Rubio’s problem with many voters on the right is no mystery. He supported the Gang of 8 immigration bill, which included amnesty for illegal immigrants. It is a black mark on his record matched only by Cruz’s support for the same bill. Cruz promised to support the bill once certain amendments were made. None of the proposed changes altered the bill’s amnesty.

Cruz’s defense is rather amazing to behold, as he claims the amendments were a poison pill. He says he knew the Democrats would find them unacceptable, and their passage would kill the Gang of 8 bill in the Senate chambers. This leaves Cruz in the humorous position of claiming he was lying in a half dozen television interviews when he said he wanted the bill to pass. Try this is court if you ever find your own words being used against you. “But Your Honor, I was lying when I said that.”

Of course, Rubio is not off the hook for his support of this bill. He deserves criticism for being so thoroughly played by Chuck Schumer. And yet, these facts have not affected the narrative all that much. Rubio is considered the amnesty traitor, while Cruz is presented as the conservative stalwart. Both are presently incredibly hawkish on border security. If I could detect an actual difference between their present positions, or their past positions, perhaps this issue would prove useful in choosing between them.

If the two are so similar on substance, how does one choose between them? The answer is Style.

Rubio is clearly the more electable candidate. Nearly every poll over the past year has shown that Rubio scores better against Clinton than Cruz does. His likability ratings also score significantly higher. The liberal wonks at FiveThirtyEight.com have consistently raised warning bells that Rubio is the biggest threat to the Democrats holding the presidency in 2016.

If Republicans nominate Rubio, they would have an excellent chance to beat Clinton by broadening their party’s appeal with moderates, millennials and Latinos. The GOP would also have an excellent chance to keep the Senate, hold onto a wide margin in the House and enjoy more control of federal government than they have in over a decade.

If they nominate Ted Cruz, Clinton would probably win, the GOP Senate majority would also be in peril and GOP House losses could climb well into the double digits.

rubiocanwin

This chart proves FiveThirtyEight’s point. Across nearly every category of voter, Rubio outperforms Cruz. Republican voters often must choose between an electable candidate and a conservative candidate. It is extremely depressing. Today, we have the opportunity to choose a man who is both electable, and extremely conservative. This is called having your cake and eating it too.

Stop telling me that the chocolate sprinkles don’t taste as good as the rainbow sprinkles, and eat your delicious cake.

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  1. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    Duane Oyen:

    Columbo:

    Bryan G. Stephens:The point is, there is a difference between supporting a bill and being part of the Gang of 8 being run by Chuck Schumer.

    One was a dupe and one was not.

    Bingo. Compare and contrast these photos …….

    There are smiles all around as immigration reform legislation is outlined by the Senate's bipartisan "Gang of Eight", on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2013. From left to right are Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. The legislation would dramatically remake the U.S. immigration system, ushering in new visa programs for low- and high-skilled workers, requiring a tough new focus on border security, instituting a new requirement for all employers to check the legal status of their workers, and installing a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants in the country illegally. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) romneycare2

    So your position is that Romney should have sat out the issues in Massachusetts and just let the 87% Democrat legislature pass its single payer bill? It tends to be obvious when someone quotes bumper-stickers and has zero knowledge of what actually happened in Massachusetts and why, let alone the work at the time of the Ethan Allen Institute.

    Or is it that all Republicans should always be threatening to punch all Democrats?

    No, in the Rubio picture, three out of four people smiling are Republicans. If the message is that we should always be fighting, it’s not limited to fighting Democrats. Rather, we should strive to avoid working as a team even with our own party. Nothing could do better in moving the ball.

    • #181
  2. Jamie Lockett Member
    Jamie Lockett
    @JamieLockett

    The Reticulator:

    Jamie Lockett:

    The Reticulator:

    Jamie Lockett:

    The Reticulator:

    Frank Soto: on record supporting the Ryan plan (which privatizes medicare for goodness sake). How can you conclude he isn’t going to move the ball?

    ExIm. He was given an easy test when it was important, and he failed.

    Rubio voted against Ex/Im. Twice.

    That’s nice. That’s exactly what I mean by people manipulating and massaging their voting records to make the term “conservative” meaningless. Thank you for saving me the trouble of looking up an example.

    Ummm what exactly is a Senator supposed to do to assuage you about Ex/Im? Storm the bastille? Take McConnel’s family hostage until he pledges never to bring it to a vote? Sneak into the National Archives with a sharpie and write “NO EXPORT IMPORT BANKS” into the bill of rights?

    He could have taken the trouble to vote against ExIm reauthorization last time instead of pulling an Obama and refraining from voting.

    Ummm, he did vote against it last time.

    • #182
  3. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    James Of England:

    The Reticulator:

    The Reticulator:

    To add to this point: Rubio did not vote against the ExIm bill and the Ryan budget. Ted Cruz went to Iowa and spoke against ethanol corporate welfare. Those are not just differently flavored sprinkles.

    Ted Cruz did not vote against Attorney General Lynch’s nomination. Back then, Cruz felt that missing symbolic votes wasn’t a character issue. Later, those principles didn’t suit him, so he got some new ones, which I see you’ve adopted; or perhaps they were yours before. Still, I’m not sure how radically different flavours the different missed votes were.

    Sort of gives the lie to the idea that we demand perfection and purity, doesn’t it.

    • #183
  4. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Jamie Lockett: Ummm, he did vote against it last time.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/249392-senate-votes-to-reauthorize-export-import-bank

    • #184
  5. Jamie Lockett Member
    Jamie Lockett
    @JamieLockett

    The Reticulator:

    Jamie Lockett: Ummm, he did vote against it last time.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/249392-senate-votes-to-reauthorize-export-import-bank

    I stand corrected. Rubio voted against it twice when “No” votes mattered and filed an amendment designed to not simply let it lapse but to kill it for good. He didn’t show up when Yes had 64 votes, but Ted Cruz did.

    And I quote:

    “That’s nice. That’s exactly what I mean by people manipulating and massaging their voting records to make the term “conservative” meaningless.”

    • #185
  6. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Jamie Lockett:

    The Reticulator:

    Jamie Lockett: Ummm, he did vote against it last time.

    http://thehill.com/blogs/floor-action/senate/249392-senate-votes-to-reauthorize-export-import-bank

    I stand corrected. Rubio voted against it twice when “No” votes mattered and filed an amendment designed to not simply let it lapse but to kill it for good. He didn’t show up when Yes had 64 votes, but Ted Cruz did.

    And I quote:

    “That’s nice. That’s exactly what I mean by people manipulating and massaging their voting records to make the term “conservative” meaningless.”

    It looks like we both got some new information. I like that Ted was faithful all the way through.  I must say that ExIm was one of the two main items that turned me against Rubio, so will keep this in mind.

    • #186
  7. hcat Inactive
    hcat
    @hcat

    I’m nervous about Rubio’s “no exceptions” on abortion, but it isn’t that much of a problem unless he would veto a bill that had the rape and incest exceptions, I hope he’s not that stupid.

    • #187
  8. Bryan G. Stephens Thatcher
    Bryan G. Stephens
    @BryanGStephens

    About that Gang of 8 Deal:

    From National Review Online:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/430897/rubios-immigration-lies

    I also read the Memo he cites in his article.

    I take part of the NRO here:

    Those falsehoods are too numerous to list in a blog post – read the whole paper. But some examples regarding just one part of the bill: As Rubio himself was forced to admit eventually, Schumer’s bill granted work permits and Social Security numbers to illegals up front, and promised the enforcement targets would be met in future years – just like the failed 1986 amnesty. And yet, here’s what he told conservative media: To Limbaugh: “if there is not language in this bill that guarantees that nothing else will happen unless these enforcement mechanisms are in place, I won’t support it.”  To Hannity: “I don’t think any of that [amnesty] begins until we certify that the border security progress has been real. That a workplace enforcement mechanism is in place. That we are tracking visitors to our country, especially when they exit.” Bill O’Reilly said: “Senator Rubio told me on the phone today that it would be at least 13 years, 13, before people in the country illegally right now could gain full legal working status and even longer to achieve citizenship.” Rubio also lied about the size of the bill’s unprecedented increase in legal immigration, he lied about the scope of waivers, he lied about welfare eligibility, he lied to law enforcement about amnesty for gang members.

    Any comments, those of you who think that Rubio and Cruz are no different around the Gang of 8 Bill? I know this is sort of dead, so if I get crickets later, I’ll post as its own feed.

    As far as I am concerned, this pretty much seals me on how much a liar Rubio is on immigration, and that he continues to lie on this topic. There is a huge space in my mind between him and Cruz on this topic, and reading this article made it bigger.

    I am open to refutations of the Eagle Forum article, of course. I have to saw, for a Rubio staffer to say this:

    AMERICAN WORKERS CAN’T CUT IT

    In a for-attribution interview with Ryan Lizza, two senior Rubio staffers expressed frustration that they couldn’t get even more foreign workers crammed into the bill for their boss.  They explained: “There are American workers who, for lack of a better term, can’t cut it.”

    Did Rubio disown that? Anyone know?

    And, as has been mentioned in the thread already, there is the whole issue of a different message in Spanish.

    So, after reading the Eagle Forum memo, I will clearly not vote for Rubio in the primary, and he will not see a dime, not even to get a sign, in the general election. I will vote for him as the “R”, but expect him to jam through mass amnesty as his first opportunity.

    Now, excuse me while I go donate to Cruz.

    • #188
  9. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    James Of England:

    Duane Oyen:

    Columbo:

    Bryan G. Stephens:The point is, there is a difference between supporting a bill and being part of the Gang of 8 being run by Chuck Schumer.

    One was a dupe and one was not.

    Bingo. Compare and contrast these photos …….

    There are smiles all around as immigration reform legislation is outlined by the Senate's bipartisan "Gang of Eight", on Capitol Hill in Washington, Thursday, April 18, 2013. From left to right are Sen. Jeff Flake, R-Ariz., Sen. Chuck Schumer, D-N.Y., Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., and Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz. The legislation would dramatically remake the U.S. immigration system, ushering in new visa programs for low- and high-skilled workers, requiring a tough new focus on border security, instituting a new requirement for all employers to check the legal status of their workers, and installing a path to citizenship for 11 million immigrants in the country illegally. (AP Photo/J. Scott Applewhite) romneycare2

    So your position is that Romney should have sat out the issues in Massachusetts and just let the 87% Democrat legislature pass its single payer bill? It tends to be obvious when someone quotes bumper-stickers and has zero knowledge of what actually happened in Massachusetts and why, let alone the work at the time of the Ethan Allen Institute.

    Or is it that all Republicans should always be threatening to punch all Democrats?

    No, in the Rubio picture, three out of four people smiling are Republicans. If the message is that we should always be fighting, it’s not limited to fighting Democrats. Rather, we should strive to avoid working as a team even with our own party. Nothing could do better in moving the ball.

    … in the Rubio picture, three out of four people smiling are Republicans.

    McCain (51% Heritage) not only doesn’t “fight” Dems, he collaborates with them in back rooms. Flake (68%) and Rubio got rolled by Schumer/McCain. Note that ALL Dems smiling in both pictures are laughing at the ignorance and gullibility of the Pubbies.

    • #189
  10. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    Columbo: McCain (51% Heritage) not only doesn’t “fight” Dems, he collaborates with them in back rooms. Flake (68%) and Rubio got rolled by Schumer/McCain. Note that ALL Dems smiling in both pictures are laughing at the ignorance and gullibility of the Pubbies.

    Do you think that there was a significant change in the rate of reform when Obama lost his supermajority? Do you think that it’s possible that that was because Obama lost his supermajority? If so, do you recognize that McCain was an essential part of that math? That it’s thanks to him (and every other Republican in the Senate at the time) that the juggernaut stopped? Susan Collins, too. Indeed, thanks to the eccentricities of the Heritage rating system, 51% isn’t that far from average; John Cornyn comes in at 44%.

    I don’t know what your source is for the belief that the Democrats are rejoicing at the gullibility of Republicans rather than at completing a fairly difficult project (each stage of legislation is an effort in itself). Do you have something for that?

    • #190
  11. Columbo Inactive
    Columbo
    @Columbo

    James Of England:I don’t know what your source is for the belief that the Democrats are rejoicing at the gullibility of Republicans rather than at completing a fairly difficult project (each stage of legislation is an effort in itself). Do you have something for that?

    I would attribute it to my my great investigative style.

    • #191
  12. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Columbo:

    James Of England:I don’t know what your source is for the belief that the Democrats are rejoicing at the gullibility of Republicans rather than at completing a fairly difficult project (each stage of legislation is an effort in itself). Do you have something for that?

    I would attribute it to my my great investigative style.

    You learned that from Dostoevsky, didn’t you.

    But defrauding the people is hard work.  Surely you wouldn’t deny these politicians a moment of self-congratulation for a successful operation, would you?

    • #192
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