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So How Does the Iowa Caucus, Like, Work?
This is a preview from this morning’s The Daily Shot newsletter. Subscribe here free of charge.
We know this election has been going on for over a year now, but it may shock you to find out that, yeah, nobody has actually voted for anything yet. That all changes tonight. That’s right folks! Tonight is the Iowa Caucus!
You know how on primary day you go down to the senior citizens center around the corner, the 80-year-old lady who used to be your catechism teacher makes you sign in the big book, you vote, and then you go to work? Yeah, the Iowa Caucus doesn’t work the way a normal primary does.
First off, you have to go to a specific precinct, which isn’t always nearby. Second, since the caucus process is controlled by the parties, Democrats and Republicans caucus differently.
Republicans have the simple system. You show up when you want. Everybody votes a secret ballot and goes on their merry way. It’s similar to a firehouse primary (mostly because you have to slide down a pole and befriend a Dalmatian before voting).
As with all things, for the Democrats, it’s more complicated. Everybody shows up at a specific time. There are speeches. Then everybody separates into little groups according to which candidate they’re voting for, including an “uncommitted” group. (We could make a joke about all Democrats needing to be committed, but we’ll let that one go.) At that point, many precincts have a “15 percent rule” (also known as the “It sucks to be Martin O’Malley rule”). If a candidate (including “uncommitted”) doesn’t get 15 percent of the votes, their supporters have to vote for someone else. (If that happens tonight, O’Malley refuses to tell his supporters what to do.)
Either way, the results will start coming in around 7 pm local time. (They’re on CST. So, 8 pm on the East Coast.) Usually the results are slow in coming, but this time there’s a big computer system (which is its own kettle of fish) to help count things this time, so we might get results more quickly.
The winner of the popular vote in the Iowa Caucus may get a big boost to their campaign’s momentum, but in terms of delegates, those are chosen later. Tonight they just pick precinct delegates. Then there’s a county caucus. Then there’s a statewide caucus. It’s a whole thing. That’s why Rick Santorum nosed out Mitt Romney in 2012 by 34 votes, but when you look it up, Ron Paul got 22 of Iowa’s 28 delegates to the Republican convention.
This is a preview from this morning’s The Daily Shot newsletter. Subscribe here free of charge.
Published in General
The GOP made changes after 2012 (as well they should have). The high-profile change was in the counting process. The low-profile change was that delegates will be bound according to district caucus results (to prevent a repeat of Santorum winning on caucus night but Ron Paul winning 22 of 28 delegates). I suspect that, if the “second/third tier” candidates all take 2-4% and Trump wins, the GOP will want to adopt the Democrats process of requiring those voting for “non-viable” candidates to be pushed to other candidates. I’d propose that the GOP adopt a 5 or 10% threshold.
If Iowa is going to serve as a “winnower” than let’s have them do it earlier than after results are announced. The “benefit” of a new system would be to allow voters in Iowa to both winnow and “winnow directedly” – those voting for a “non-viable” candidate in a particular “lane” (e.g., establishment, outsider, conservative, evangelical……..) would be able to instantly congregate and focus on the best representative of that lane and direct the rest of the electorate as to who is “best” in that segment.
Yeah, from what I read, the Democrats instituted their system because of internal divisions over the Vietnam war.
I find their system to be more interesting, if for no other reason than because its just different.