Tense, Boring, and — Squirrel!

 

IMG_2862It seems the natives are getting restless again, and you can trust me on that, speaking as the least restful nativist ever to grace these pages with thoughts from my viscera (thanks, Mona!). Like any place on the Internet, we have skillful trolls and blunt-force trolls, and here we pride ourselves on quality. It’s money well-spent.

The U.S. News and World Report cites a survey that has Trump pulling almost 20 percent of Democrats, as Hillary’s Hail Rodham play peters out at the fifty-yard line. Many people will say that this is inconceivable. “Inconceivable!” There, I said it for you.

In 2008 and 2012, what was inevitable for the GOP is exactly what happened, but the Democrats have some experience that we lack. In 2000, inevitable blowhard Al Gore was ensconced and lost, and in 2004, the inevitable wooden bore Kerry did the same. So when the inevitable no-man Hillary stepped up in 2008, a different whirling blade mowed her down. I do believe that Hillary would have lost to McCain-Palin and an energized, unified establishment-conservative party. Can’t prove a counterfactual, so it’s offered for your consideration.

Obama won due to a single energizing factor, and it didn’t rhyme with tush. It rhymed with mace. How many of the black groundswell voters who boosted turnout were nominally conservative but had never (reasonably enough) voted until, for once in their lives, a black man won the nomination? I bet many of them would have voted for Powell, or Sowell, or a black beach towel — along with a sizeable number of prog-lib black voters.

Race, though, is not the factor in play, but crossover. Now that the inevitable Maverick got shot down (oops), and the inevitable author of BillionCare flatlined in the debates, the Republican Party is in precisely the position the Democrats were in 2008. The inevitable Jefe Arbusto del Norte has not yet been sprung by his by corrupt Comisario Roveo of the Federales. No vienen, amigo.

Now the GOP has a problem. They hate Cruz, and they hate Trump, yet one of them is likely to be the nominee. And Hillary is mortally wounded, which may mean nothing (in inimitable Clinton fashion), but which may well force the Democrats into a peculiar maneuver. We’ll see. Whatever it is, the same maneuver will not be available to Republicans without similar felony charges, which are unlikely to bear fruit in time no matter what at this stage.

Wouldn’t it be something if Trump won the nomination, won a huge slice of Democrats, and the GOP establishment elected the second-string Democrat because of their ideological purity? Inconceivable, right?

Man, it’s going to be interesting around here. As the Confederate Air Force operational risk briefings used to go, “Y’all don’t fly too low and don’t do nothin’ stupid.”

Published in Elections, General, Politics
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  1. DML Inactive
    DML
    @DML

    Beautiful

    • #1
  2. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    Ball Diamond Ball: Man, it’s going to be interesting around here. As the Confederate Air Force operational risk briefings used to go, “Y’all don’t fly too low and don’t do nothin’ stupid.”

    Yep.

    • #2
  3. Black Prince Inactive
    Black Prince
    @BlackPrince

    Brilliant!

    • #3
  4. MarciN Member
    MarciN
    @MarciN

    I knew from the beginning that Trump would get a lot of support from Democrats who are as divided as we are on immigration, military spending, and the Iran Deal. I think Trump knew it too and knew if he could somehow get past the primary to be the Republican candidate, he stood an excellent chance of winning. He has been speaking to the disaffected Democrats all along. He knows them well. He likely has as many friends who are Democrats as are Republicans. He knows exactly what’s on their mind.

    • #4
  5. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Excellent.

    • #5
  6. Carey J. Inactive
    Carey J.
    @CareyJ

    Ball Diamond Ball: Drudge says that USN&WR says that Trump could pull 20% of democrats, as Hillary’s Hail Rodham play peters out at the fifty which many people will say that this is inconceivable. “Inconceivable!” There, I said it for you.

    They keep using that word. I do not think it means what they think it means.

    • #6
  7. TKC1101 Member
    TKC1101
    @

    Ah, the New York State I grew up in is starting to speak… loud , in your face and always in a hurry.  The folks who keep the place running are Trump naturals. For once the GOP may carry New York, because you know, it ain’t that he’s not a democrat, he’s a New Yorker, bub.

    This election could be truly a game changer for America. It will certainly be fun as the heads keep exploding.

    • #7
  8. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    TKC1101: he’s a New Yorker, bub.

    Oh, but Hillary has a home in New York, too. >;^D

    • #8
  9. CB Toder aka Mama Toad Member
    CB Toder aka Mama Toad
    @CBToderakaMamaToad

    Arahant:

    TKC1101: he’s a New Yorker, bub.

    Oh, but Hillary has a home in New York, too. >;^D

    Doesn’t make her a newyorker, though does it? Every time (at least when she’s not pandering to the audience by pretending she’s from Arkansas or black) she opens her mouth, her midwestern pronunciation makes it clear she’s not from around here… Thank goodness she doesn’t try to pander in newyawk accents…

    • #9
  10. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    CB Toder aka Mama Toad: Thank goodness she doesn’t try to pander in newyawk accents…

    You haven’t heard her? I’m sure she has tried the dialect.

    • #10
  11. CB Toder aka Mama Toad Member
    CB Toder aka Mama Toad
    @CBToderakaMamaToad

    Arahant:

    CB Toder aka Mama Toad: Thank goodness she doesn’t try to pander in newyawk accents…

    You haven’t heard her? I’m sure she has tried the dialect.

    I will admit to avoiding her locutions as assiduously as possible.

    And Drudge, one of my main news sources, only posts clips of her black-or-southern shows… I’d be interested to hear her try. Accents can be tough for many. Any fun links?

    • #11
  12. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    CB Toder aka Mama Toad: Any fun links?

    Not sure about fun, but there is this from her 2000 senate campaign:

    https://grabien.com/file.php?id=42807&searchorder=date

    • #12
  13. CB Toder aka Mama Toad Member
    CB Toder aka Mama Toad
    @CBToderakaMamaToad

    Arahant: Not sure about fun

    Sorry, obvious poor choice of words, I mean we’re talking about… never mind, not nice.

    • #13
  14. CB Toder aka Mama Toad Member
    CB Toder aka Mama Toad
    @CBToderakaMamaToad

    Wow, that was talentless. But fortunately extremely brief. Must be time for coffee…

    • #14
  15. Arahant Member
    Arahant
    @Arahant

    CB Toder aka Mama Toad:Wow, that was talentless. But fortunately extremely brief. Must be time for coffee…

    Yeah. I’m sure it wasn’t the only time during that race, either.

    • #15
  16. Paul Erickson Inactive
    Paul Erickson
    @PaulErickson

    Ball Diamond Ball: I bet many of them would have voted for Powell, or Sowell, or a black beach towel

    I am still chuckling at this line!

    • #16
  17. Franco Member
    Franco
    @Franco

    In their arrogant desperation, the GOPe has showed their hand. We thought they were going for an inside straight with Jefe Arbusto, and now their betting pattern constitutes a gigantic tell. Now we know.

    They have become like unto their perpetual enemy Oceania, all the while railing against them to the conservative masses providing us a false choice; them or us, astonished that the narrative has lost its dramatic effect. The plot of their play still makes sense, but we don’t believe in, or care about, the characters. The protagonist is almost as bad as the villain, and the audience begins to see a pointless ending coming their way.

    Then from the audience, another character in our Comedia appears, the playful Arlechinno, who mocks and insults, who disrespects the pretenses. Now the audience laughs and sees something interesting. If the ending is to be pointless, it may as well be entertaining.

    They are living in their two-dimensional fantasy world, trying to fit the Trump phenomenon into an outdated paradigm. The political world has moved on since the Time of Dole. They are similarly flummoxed that a candidate who “doesn’t get along” with them, a renegade Ivy League Senator, has so much appeal. The incongruity of undereducated everyman billionaire Trump, and measured erudite Princeton Cruz pulling accolades from the same audience should reveal something to these folks. What is the a vector of commonality here?

    But they are too stuck in political solipsism. It’s outside their range.

    Sorry for all the mixed metaphors – this is only a comment. I want to hire an editor but can’t afford one.

    (BDB, you inspire me to try to write better. I’ll keep trying…)

    • #17
  18. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Agree that he could do really well with crossover voters, but that poll’s methodology ain’t worth a bucket of warm spit:

    The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

    Online polling? Total scam. Adding that to dial-test response to a single ad? Man, I want to be a “pollster.” How much you think they got paid for that?

    That said, yes, I do think he could have a lot of cross-party appeal. Why? Because he’s a Democrat at heart. (Or who knows what he’ll really be in office.) Ethanol? He loves it. Of course you can get Democrat votes if you’re a Democrat. Does the GOP want to win so bad that they’ll nominate a Democrat to capture Democratic votes? I’d probably be in favor of it, if it’s the only way to win, but that’s because he’d be less polarizing: The so-called right can feel like they won one, and the Democrats will find he’s surprisingly easy to work with.

    • #18
  19. Titus Techera Contributor
    Titus Techera
    @TitusTechera

    BDB, you’re a poet-

    • #19
  20. Basil Fawlty Member
    Basil Fawlty
    @BasilFawlty

    Mark Steyn has a lengthy piece on a Trump rally in Vermont.

    • #20
  21. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Basil Fawlty:Mark Steyn has a lengthy piece on a Trump rally in Vermont.

    ‘ow long is it?

    • #21
  22. CB Toder aka Mama Toad Member
    CB Toder aka Mama Toad
    @CBToderakaMamaToad

    Basil Fawlty:Mark Steyn has a lengthy piece on a Trump rally in Vermont.

    Thanks for posting it. I thought I might, but I’m such a mindless fangrrrl that is predictable enough to seem repetitive

    (heh)

    • #22
  23. E. Kent Golding Moderator
    E. Kent Golding
    @EKentGolding

    Jim Webb could have pulled a lot of Republican Votes,  and kept a lot of other Republicans at home, not voting.

    I  think after Obama, that either Hillary or Bernie will be able to motivate almost all Republicans to vote against Hillary or Bernie,  regardless of who the Republican nominee is.  The Establishment may stay home,  and while the establishment is a lot of dollars, the establishment is not enough votes to really make a difference.

    The only current danger I see is a Biden.   Biden appears innocuous enough that the Republican Voters will not be aware of the danger and be lulled to sleep.

    • #23
  24. Franco Member
    Franco
    @Franco

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:Agree that he could do really well with crossover voters, but that poll’s methodology ain’t worth a bucket of warm spit:

    The survey by Washington-based Mercury Analytics is a combination online questionnaire and “dial-test” of Trump’s first big campaign ad among 916 self-proclaimed “likely voters” (this video shows the ad and the dial test results). It took place primarily Wednesday and Thursday and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percent.

    Online polling? Total scam. Adding that to dial-test response to a single ad? Man, I want to be a “pollster.” How much you think they got paid for that?

    That said, yes, I do think he could have a lot of cross-party appeal. Why? Because he’s a Democrat at heart. (Or who knows what he’ll really be in office.) Ethanol? He loves it. Of course you can get Democrat votes if you’re a Democrat. Does the GOP want to win so bad that they’ll nominate a Democrat to capture Democratic votes? I’d probably be in favor of it, if it’s the only way to win, but that’s because he’d be less polarizing: The so-called right can feel like they won one, and the Democrats will find he’s surprisingly easy to work with.

    On the subject of ethanol, he’s no different than other Republicans present and past save for Cruz who is getting squishy on the subject as well. Sadly, Trump is a pragmatist and is not above pandering, and that is indeed a valid caveat, but it’s strange evidence considering he’s in line here with other Republicans.

    As to accusations of Trump being a “Democrat” I find more revelatory of the accuser than of the accused.

    Is he a Democrat on gun rights?

    Is he a Democrat on immigration?

    Is he a Democrat on terror and our response to ISIS?

    Is he a Democrat on taxes?

    Mainstream Democrats hate him, the only Dems who like him are already alienated for the Democrat Party.

    Republicans who say Trump “isn’t a real Republican” help him with both conservatives AND Democrats, so thank you GOPe.

    • #24
  25. James Madison Member
    James Madison
    @JamesMadison

    Love this piece.

    Love to watch Trump. Trump is for nationalized health care. Socialist? No way. Just listening to the people.

    For America first – no more losing! Nationalist! Alright. I gotta get me some that.

    Willing to say things that are offensive! Things that must be said. Speaks off the top of his head – no filter. Good. Those people – those feminists, equal marriage – them. He will deal with that. He will shut them down. He will hit them with Bill the Rapacious stories (Bill Clinton, not Bill Cosby).

    Trump never speaks of the Constitution nor the Bill of Rights! Love it. Just talks about bulldozing, building, and eminent domain. Land hold outs are really bad people who are taking advantage of Trump. Plow them under! Give me more Trump.

    Government size – no problem. Trump will make it work. He will make it bigger and better. This is what we need – a better, more effective government.

    Deficits – let those Tea Partiers worry about deficits. Trump is for huge – I mean really huge deficits – so big, so beautiful. His tax plan cuts taxes $10 trillion dollars. Trump’s deficits make Obama look like a loser. Sweeeeeet.

    And as for the rich – they will get a tax increase under Trump because he is cutting taxes on everyone else. No one – well few – will pay taxes anymore. That will seal the deal – a base that pays little or no taxes and gets huge national health care for free. Perfect or what? Romney will have to change his 47% to 67% of Americans pay no taxes.

    And on foreign policy – well he is gonna take our boys and girls in uniform and unleash them to kill ISIS families in Syria. And we all know what close families all those ISIS fighters have. ISIS is to Islam what Focus on the Family and James Dobson are to evangelism. (Trump is religious right – Norman Vincent Peale, and Bible stuff?). Finally, Vietnam comes true! We get to kill indiscriminately. No more ROE. Napalm in the morning. If it moves, it dies. The red, white and blue – so true, so proud.

    Any Republican who would dare question Trump – who himself is a Democrat and a recent Republican – surely is ideologically pure. They surely are. They must be. Yes, the Republicans are to be disdained – they brought us Progressivism, they split in 1912 and gave us Woodrow Wilson, they managed the Federal Reserve and Treasury under Hoover which gave us the Depression and Roosevelt, they selected Nixon which gave us Carter, they split with Perot and gave us Clinton, and they mucked up the GWOT and gave us Obama. After all, the Republican Party does not belong to them, it belongs to ideologically impure like Trump!

    And to suggest that supporters of Trump are backlashing against all the President’s race talk,…. that they are somehow taking the race bait. No way. Trumpsters see through the President – the guy is such a loser. They are not about to spew out race as a motivator or dog whistle (ignore the comment above).

    And Trump is going to round up those Chexicans and send them back – the good ones can come back to change the sheets and cut his golf courses. But, the good ones will not depress middle class wages, will not commit crimes, and will not take jobs from those already here. No, no, no. They just won’t – because Trump says they are good – all 10 million of the 11 million or so. He did after all say most of them are good. Can’t wait to see the deportation, reimportation, and my lawn and leaves taken care of.

    National health care socialism operated by a big beautiful government that works for me – National Socialism a perfect confluence of ideals.

    He is the Trump we have been waiting for. He is the revenge, the vendetta that will make us whole.

    [Editors’ Note: Though not in technical CoC violation, we can’t help but note that this would have worked without the sarcasm.]

    • #25
  26. Basil Fawlty Member
    Basil Fawlty
    @BasilFawlty

    Ball Diamond Ball:

    Basil Fawlty:Mark Steyn has a lengthy piece on a Trump rally in Vermont.

    ‘ow long is it?

    Enough.

    • #26
  27. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Sounds like soooomebody has a case of the Moooondays!

    James Madison: And on foreign policy – well he is gonna take our boys and girls in uniform and unleash them to kill ISIS families in Syria. And we all know what close families all those ISIS fighters have. mondaysISIS is to Islam what Focus on the Family and James Dobson are to evangelism. (Trump is religious right – Norman Vincent Peale, and Bible stuff?). Finally, Vietnam comes true! We get to kill indiscriminately. No more ROE. Napalm in the morning. If it moves, it dies. The red, white and blue – so true, so proud.

    Seriously though, I don’t think you’re A) qualified to comment on ROE, or B) coming at the whole “value of American lives in uniform” from the right angle.  This post is just an observation, not rah-rah cheerleading, so see your way out the door under your own power, will you?  You’re waving about swinging at ghosts who aren’t in the room, and you look like a fool.  Try your hand at [redacted].

    [Editors’ Note: Personal attacks on other members violate the Code of Conduct.]

    • #27
  28. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Franco: On the subject of ethanol, he’s no different than other Republicans present and past save for Cruz who is getting squishy on the subject as well.

    Agree, but it gets my goat. Cruz at least only went squishy for an obvious, immediate pandering purpose. Maybe he really means it.

    As to accusations of Trump being a “Democrat” I find more revelatory of the accuser than of the accused. Is he a Democrat on gun rights?

    Who knows? Over the past 28 years he’s been a registered Republican, a registered Democrat, a registered member of the Independence Party, a Reform Party candidate, and a Republican again — with a brief period of “decline to state.” He’a a total wild card. Genuinely have no idea what he’d do in office, but I suspect that since what he does is make deals, he’d make deals.

    Is he a Democrat on immigration?

    I’m not sure whether there’s such a thing as a Democrat or a Republican position, but he certainly seems to be more-or-less of the same view as Bernie Sanders: That immigration puts downward pressure on American workers, and he’s definitely proposing a biggest-government-ever solution to the problem. He says he’s going to “build a wall” and round up some 11 million people. I look forward to the new Federal Department of Rounding People Up, the new Rounding-People-Up Czar, and to yet another bloated, bloviating, incompetent federal bureaucracy we can never get rid of. Also loving the idea of them executing this plan with all the competence of the people who compile the No-fly list. How’s this plan going to survive contact with the first US citizens who get rounded up and dumped on the other side of the border, I wonder?

    Is he a Democrat on terror and our response to ISIS?

    Who knows? What do you think he actually proposes to do?

    Is he a Democrat on taxes?

    Who knows? He’s running on “no entitlement reform,” so I can’t see how his plan works.

    Mainstream Democrats hate him, the only Dems who like him are already alienated for the Democrat Party. Republicans who say Trump “isn’t a real Republican” help him with both conservatives AND Democrats, so thank you GOPe.

    I like the guy. I think he’s funny, I get as much amusement out of his campaign as anyone else. But I think the reality of a Trump presidency would be pretty much like Bill Clinton’s — and God help us if there’s a real emergency on his watch, as I’m afraid there might be. Because I don’t think he’s got a clue what he’d do. None.

    • #28
  29. Ball Diamond Ball Member
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Claire, you’re worrying about the merits of Trump.  While that’s commendable in a way, it’s not the issue that animates support for Trump.  Trump is the punishment we said we would bring to the GOP if they persisted in their Democrat-Lite ways.

    The way I see it, nobody who prefers the squishy establishment to the crunchy conservatives really has a place to stand in criticizing Trump for being insufficiently conservative.

    I am not saying that your argument is without merit.  Just hoping to illustrate that behind the fact you have noticed — that your complaints fall on deaf ears — there is more thought than viscera.  I certainly don’t expect to convert you.  Just thought I’d take a stab at lancing another tense, boring, repetitive argument.  We’ve seen this before.  You and Franco (in this case) will not find common ground.  Sometimes understanding is only sufficient at some remove.

    Facts no longer matter.  Only power does.  Trump is a demonstration of power.  And it would be visceral to assume that there’s no goal, no thought, no vision behind that.  What a pity that the GOP wants no part of it, and therefore must be shoved aside.  Believe me — we wish we had been able to fight Obama this whole time.  Your mileage may vary.

    • #29
  30. James Madison Member
    James Madison
    @JamesMadison

    Today is Sunday. It’s absolutely beautiful here. Sorry you are having a Monday. I just admire Trump.

    One comment, ROE – you have no idea what you are talking about. This is more embarrassing to you than you realize and there are scars to prove it. Best to check all that indisciplined, presumptive talk now and show a little respect (something you always seem to leave out).

    It is often so hard to face the fact that one has been baited by Trump or Cruz in their lust for combat with the GOPe or some other dragon. And Trump, like Cruz, sounds so sincere, so strong until you peal back the bravado. Then the positions start to collapse on each other – or worse, you find there is nothing there.

    After you get by the TV entertainment value of Trump, does anyone know what he stands for? That is why I admire him. He is a populist. And populists generate zealous admirers for different reasons. But your point is different. You simply enjoy watching a good dog fight between the GOPe and Cruz or Trump or the guy in the cubicle next to yours. Well, great. What does that say? Taking pleasure from the misfortune of others is not as noble as some think. No worse words than, “They had it coming,” are often spoken.

    So who thinks they are so infallible, so brilliant, so all knowing that they can just show others the way out because they may not share the same opinion? Devil got your argument? It’s not even clever. More GOPe than Tea Party. Which is the case with anti-establishment, it eventually becomes establishment, folds back on its own ideas, and becomes too bored, too tired to respond. Failure to be responsive – now that is “e” in all its “e-ness” isn’t it?

    Better to think, reflect and then write. It’s the American way, and Aristotelian as well.

    Cheers!

    • #30
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