Would You Support a Military Coup?

 

I’d like to know more about the methodology used in this poll. Apparently, 43 percent of Republicans can envision themselves supporting a military coup:

Screen Shot 2015-12-28 at 13.09.05“Sample 1,000 Adult Interviews Conducted September 2 – 3, 2015,” says YouGov, but offers no further methodological clues.

What do you think: Do Republicans you know seem the sort to think a junta might be okay?

Seems such a shame for the US to have spent so many years, lives, time, and treasure on making the world safe for democracy only to find that in the end we no longer believe in it ourselves.

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  1. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    That’s a heck of  title for Monday morning after a holiday weekend :).

    • #1
  2. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    BrentB67:That’s a heck of title for Monday morning after a holiday weekend :).

    Well, I was going to start with a long analysis of the reporting we’re getting about the recapture of Ramadi, but I figured that was definitely too heavy …

    • #2
  3. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    I think the poll is an emotional response to the over reach of the current administration. When fundamental rights and liberty are suppressed via means outside the Constitution extraordinary measure(s) to restore order that once seemed unthinkable enter the realm of consideration.

    • #3
  4. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    I imagine if they did a similar poll in Texas regarding secession it would garner similar or very slightly less support for the same reasons.

    • #4
  5. Zafar Member
    Zafar
    @Zafar

    Is this honestly surprising?

    • #5
  6. Metalheaddoc Member
    Metalheaddoc
    @Metalheaddoc

    Not sure why this is a surprise. This Administration is lawless. The GOP Congress is spineless. Is it any wonder that a large segment of the population wants to shut the system down, reformat the hard drive and do a clean install of the operating system (i.e. The Constitution). This current version of government has too much malware.

    • #6
  7. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    If you look at the phrasing of the question, it is really broad.  “Is there any situation” leaves it totally up to your imagination.  One could imagine, however unlikely, a democratically elected figure who dissolves the government and makes himself the dictator, sends out death squads and then gets overthrown by the military.  The question really does allow for you to consider that a possibility.  It’s not like the question says would you support a coup if Hillary Clinton is elected in 2016.

    • #7
  8. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    BrentB67: I think the poll is an emotional response to the over reach of the current administration.

    I should stipulate again that I can’t find any detail about the polling methodology. But if these results are really the response to a well-constructed poll, I don’t think we can be so sanguine.

    • #8
  9. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    BrentB67: I think the poll is an emotional response to the over reach of the current administration.

    I should stipulate again that I can’t find any detail about the polling methodology. But if these results are really the response to a well-constructed poll, I don’t think we can be so sanguine.

    I am not saying it isn’t possible. I am just saying it is emotionally driven.

    I think it is similar to the Trump phenomenon. His support is mostly emotionally driven, but that doesn’t mean he can’t or will not be the nominee or even President.

    • #9
  10. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Metalheaddoc: Is it any wonder that a large segment of the population wants to shut the system down, reformat the hard drive and do a clean install of the operating system (i.e. The Constitution).

    Yes, it’s a wonder. If this is the way 43 percent of the GOP is really thinking, it’s no longer the party of conservatives at all. That’s called a revolution. What on earth would make people believe the military, having seized power, would restore any kind of democracy, no less one based on the Constitution? It would be about the most unconstitutional act imaginable.

    • #10
  11. ctlaw Coolidge
    ctlaw
    @ctlaw

    Isn’t there an alleged Charlton Heston quote on point?

    • #11
  12. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    BrentB67: I think it is similar to the Trump phenomenon.

    I agree. (Stipulating again that I don’t know how the poll was conducted.) But if that’s what’s become of GOP voters, then the GOP is no longer a conservative party, and the place for conservatives to focus their efforts is in trying to elect the most conservative Democrat. (As Buckley would recommend: support the most conservative electable candidate.)

    • #12
  13. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    Zafar:Is this honestly surprising?

    To me? Yes, if it proves to be a replicable poll result, it would be absolutely shocking.

    • #13
  14. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    BrentB67: I think it is similar to the Trump phenomenon.

    I agree. (Stipulating again that I don’t know how the poll was conducted.) But if that’s what’s become of GOP voters, then the GOP is no longer a conservative party, and the place for conservatives to focus their efforts is in trying to elect the most conservative Democrat. (As Buckley would recommend: support the most conservative electable candidate.)

    It isn’t clear the majority of Trump’s supporters come from traditional GOP voters. A lot of the polls showing him with big leads are ridiculously small sample sizes. I am hesitant to identify him or the source of his poll support as republican.

    Regarding the GOP as a conservative party I think that depends mightily on how you define conservative. I argue based on my interactions since returning to Ricochet that the GOP is the ideal conservative party. Additionally, I am not a conservative nor am I welcome or useful to the GOP other than a source of funds and a vote.

    I think your previous article about a potential multi-party, 4, split bears some of this out.

    • #14
  15. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    BrentB67: I imagine if they did a similar poll in Texas regarding secession it would garner similar or very slightly less support for the same reasons.

    How do you think people would vote if it went to a serious referendum, like in Scotland? Assume it’s a totally serious vote, and that the rest of the country had agreed to respect the results. (You may remember that for fun, we gamed out some of the implications of that here.)

    • #15
  16. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    Metalheaddoc: Is it any wonder that a large segment of the population wants to shut the system down, reformat the hard drive and do a clean install of the operating system (i.e. The Constitution).

    Yes, it’s a wonder. If this is the way 43 percent of the GOP is really thinking, it’s no longer the party of conservatives at all. That’s called a revolution. What on earth would make people believe the military, having seized power, would restore any kind of democracy, no less one based on the Constitution? It would be about the most unconstitutional act imaginable.

    Going back to your OP. We don’t know the poll methodology.

    I think a lot of people answer favorably about removing the current regime without much (any?) thought about what comes after.

    • #16
  17. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    BrentB67: I imagine if they did a similar poll in Texas regarding secession it would garner similar or very slightly less support for the same reasons.

    How do you think people would vote if it went to a serious referendum, like in Scotland? Assume it’s a totally serious vote, and that the rest of the country had agreed to respect the results. (You may remember that for fun, we gamed out some of the implications of that here.)

    There is a referendum on that proposed for the next election. Texas has some unique practices regarding what goes on a ballot. There is a non-binding (kissing your sister kind of deal) resolution for secession before the committee that decides what goes on the ballot.

    If there was a binding resolution? I don’t know. I think a lot of that depends on our perception of where America is headed, who is leading the charge for secession, and what the vision for a contemporary Republic of Texas would look from a governance point of view.

    While I think it doubtful a binding resolution would pass without a case being made for our benefit I think it would garner a 1/3 or better and wouldn’t be shocked if it passed.

    • #17
  18. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    BrentB67: I think a lot of people answer favorably about removing the current regime without much (any?) thought about what comes after.

    Which is almost by definition the opposite of “conservative.” I mean, as the Chesterton cliché goes —

    The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.

    Nothing’s less conservative than the idea, “Let’s just tear it all down without thinking about what comes next,” is it? Just tear down the most successful and sustained model of self-governance in the history of the world?

    • #18
  19. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    Many (most) of those asked have obviously never served in our military. It’s the least dysfunctional part of our government, but it’s still part of the government.

    • #19
  20. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    BrentB67: I think a lot of people answer favorably about removing the current regime without much (any?) thought about what comes after.

    Which is almost by definition the opposite of “conservative.” I mean, as the Chesterton cliché goes —

    Agree

    The more modern type of reformer goes gaily up to it and says, “I don’t see the use of this; let us clear it away.” To which the more intelligent type of reformer will do well to answer: “If you don’t see the use of it, I certainly won’t let you clear it away. Go away and think. Then, when you can come back and tell me that you do see the use of it, I may allow you to destroy it.

    Nothing’s less conservative than the idea, “Let’s just tear it all down without thinking about what comes next,” is it? Just tear down the most successful and sustained model of self-governance in the history of the world?

    That is the problem/question of the morning.

    From a historic and romantic perspective the USA is the most successful and sustained model of self-governance in history. However, we are a very young model. I have attended Church in England in buildings that were 600 years old when we wrote the Declaration.

    We have jettisoned our self-governing republic in favor of crony enterprise, debt funded welfare state committed to re-distribution, and redress of perceived social injustice. That is not sustainable.

    • #20
  21. David Carroll Thatcher
    David Carroll
    @DavidCarroll

    9. Is there any situation in which you could imagine yourself supporting the U.S. military taking over the powers of federal government?

    What if a Republican won the presidential election, but the Obama-ites refused to vacate the White House claiming that there was a national emergency justifying a refusal to allow the administrations to change?  Is there anyone here who would not favor the military taking over temporarily to protect and preserve the Constitutional change of administrations?

    • #21
  22. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    What surprises me is that the Dems are at only 20% and that Independents are at an even higher 29%. Who are these Independents? I always thought they were the folks who just didn’t care enough to pick sides. Yet, they are more angry than the leftists?!?

    • #22
  23. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    That Texas secession thread looks like it was fun, sorry I missed it.

    I think a Texas resolution to secede would be warmly welcomed by the current administration and democrat party.

    • #23
  24. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    David Carroll:

    9. Is there any situation in which you could imagine yourself supporting the U.S. military taking over the powers of federal government?

    What if a Republican won the presidential election, but the Obama-ites refused to vacate the White House claiming that there was a national emergency justifying a refusal to allow the administrations to change? Is there anyone here who would not favor the military taking over temporarily to protect and preserve the Constitutional change of administrations?

    David, I wholly support your positing this situation and asking the question, but whenever someone else, specifically Stad, raised the question it has been immediately shut down by the Editors as conspiracy theory. I am anxious to see Claire and others’ reaction.

    • #24
  25. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    I am shocked that Claire thinks this is a bad thing. After all, wasn’t it Turkey where the military was the guarantor of the Constitution?

    A military coup by patriotic Americans aiming to restore the Constitution would be welcome by quite a few people – myself included.

    • #25
  26. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    BrentB67:That Texas secession thread looks like it was fun, sorry I missed it.

    I think a Texas resolution to secede would be warmly welcomed by the current administration and democrat party.

    I have made this case as well – a Texan secession could be sold to both Red and Blue America, and it would be wonderful for the nation.

    • #26
  27. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    David Carroll: Obama-ites refused to vacate the White House claiming that there was a national emergency justifying a refusal to allow the administrations to change?

    The police would politely escort them out.

    • #27
  28. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    David Carroll: Obama-ites refused to vacate the White House claiming that there was a national emergency justifying a refusal to allow the administrations to change?

    The police would politely escort them out.

    Given the events of the past 7 years I think the optics of armed people escorting the first president with a black Muslim father and three black women from the White House would be more challenging than we imagine.

    • #28
  29. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Most Texans would vote not to secede, Claire, even if they consider the vague idea fondly.

    Any armed insurrection is a crapshoot at best. Still, America’s founders probably would have rebelled a century ago. The US hasn’t been a Constitutional republic since FDR. And the founders valued a chance at extraordinary liberty over the security of a half-free nation.

    Many Republican voters are in wait-and-see mode. Very few advocate anything more extraordinary than civil disobedience against unjust and unConstitutional laws. Most would still consider even a convention of the states radical, and keep hoping in normal procedures (which are traditional only if one’s history begins with living generations). However, those same voters are preparing for hard times like this country hasn’t experienced since the Great Depression… or worse.

    Revolution ideally means a return to the beginning. Many voters hope for extraordinary political reforms. Few do anything more than vote as usual. There is no revolution coming. But ask again after President Trump / Clinton.

    • #29
  30. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    David Carroll: Obama-ites refused to vacate the White House claiming that there was a national emergency justifying a refusal to allow the administrations to change?

    The police would politely escort them out.

    To cries of “The police are staging a coup! Black Lives Matter!”

    • #30
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