Time to Thin the GOP Herd

 

shutterstock_119196472At last, Lindsey Graham did the right thing. After months of increasingly irrelevant undercard debates and poll numbers in the naughts, South Carolina’s littlest senator suspended his campaign. He joins far more promising ex-candidates Rick Perry, Scott Walker, and Bobby Jindal who were unable to capitalize on today’s frustrated electorate.

Reviewing the polling this weekend, it’s past time for several others to follow their lead. Trump is still leading most surveys, Cruz has surged into prominence, and then there’s the amorphous lump of everybody else. Said amorphous lump represents a powerful constituency, as it holds a third of GOP primary voters. But divided among several candidates, these voters will lose out unless several of their current choices step aside.

Let’s face facts, George Pataki: You are not going to be the GOP candidate. The same goes for Rand Paul, John Kasich, Carly Fiorina, Mike Huckabee, and Rick Santorum. You cast your lines, but the fish ain’t biting. It’s time for you to “spend more time with your family,” just in time for Christmas.

Ben Carson, you had your moment but couldn’t close the deal. Make millions on the lecture circuit as a consolation prize. To Chris Christie, what does it profit a man to place second in New Hampshire and lose his party to Trump? Get out. And Jeb, you should have taken my advice in August.

This sensible adjustment would leave the field to the three candidates who actually have a chance at winning this thing: Ted Cruz, Donald Trump, and Marco Rubio. And that would be a fun race to watch.

I assume Cruz would get Carson’s votes, as well as the few currently held by Huckabee and Santorum. He would probably get most of Paul’s as well (with a few of the diehards deciding to stay at home to prepare Rand’s 2020 campaign.)

The majority of Bush, Christie, Fiorina, Graham, and Kasich voters (and George Pataki’s immediate family) would prefer Marco Rubio. With the also-rans stepping aside, here’s how the race would look based on current polling:

Iowa
Cruz 45.9%
Trump 26.2%
Rubio 23.5%
Undecided 4.4%
 GraphIA
New Hampshire
Rubio 33.1%
Trump 28.3%
Cruz 19.1%
Undecided 19.5%
 GraphNH
South Carolina
Cruz 35.6%
Trump 33.7%
Rubio 15.8%
Undecided 14.9%
 GraphSC
Nationwide
Trump 34.4%
Cruz 32.3%
Rubio 12.3%
Undecided 21%
 GraphUS

If you are an also-ran candidate mortified by the prospects of a Trump victory, step aside to give a Republican not endorsed by Vladimir Putin a better shot at winning. If Cruz isn’t your top choice, suspending your campaign is the best way for Rubio to carry the banner for your views.

With these two thoughtful conservatives taking Iowa and New Hampshire, the GOP can finally have the debate it needs to move forward toward the general election. Hillary is an eminently beatable candidate and that needs to be the party’s top priority.

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  1. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    In going back over the thread, I think I’ve misread your earlier comments and stand corrected that you’re pointing out that there is a contingent of anti-semitic Trump followers and therefore the charge that some of his followers are bigoted is not without foundation. Got it. It’s late. I’m getting tired. In the words of Rosanne Rosanna Danna: Never mind.

    • #61
  2. BThompson Inactive
    BThompson
    @BThompson

    No worries.

    • #62
  3. BThompson Inactive
    BThompson
    @BThompson

    Claire Berlinski, Ed.:

    BThompson:I’ve seen ugly things written to many critics of Trump no matter the ethnic background. The stuff that Jonah and JPod get, though, is on another level. Truly sickening, Elders of Zion type stuff.

    I’d like to see some well-constructed polling data — I’d like to know how many people who say they plan to vote for him have voted before, if so, which party they voted before, age, where they live, education, how much they earn, whether they’re employed, if so in what industry, if not, for how long they’ve been unemployed, etc. Has anyone seen a link to data from a well-constructed poll, as opposed to impressionistic articles about Trump rallies?

    Don’t worry, we’ll get a lot of these answers from the exit polls next November.

    • #63
  4. Claire Berlinski, Ed. Member
    Claire Berlinski, Ed.
    @Claire

    BThompson: Don’t worry, we’ll get a lot of these answers from the exit polls next November.

    Someone’s for sure doing this kind of polling — all the candidates must be.

    • #64
  5. Pilgrim Coolidge
    Pilgrim
    @Pilgrim

    BThompson: Why would you be offended if you’re not one of those people? I didn’t say all of Trump’s supporters are white supremacists or sympathizers to that movement. I only said they make up a significant portion of it. Anyone who doesn’t believe there are a non-trivial number of such people or that the nativist rhetoric of Trump doesn’t appeal to them is being obtuse

    I am offended because I see you advancing a narrative of guilt by association:

    Any Republican is now associated with Trump because of the 30-40% of “Republican voters” who state that polling preference. Since Trump supporters are “nativist bigots” (i.e. want rational immigration policies and border enforcement) and “white supremacists” ( i.e. believe that group identity politics and a racial spoils system undermines the society), any Republican candidate is the candidate of nativist bigots and white supremacists.

    The tea party was suppressed from a nascent movement to irrelevance by this kind of narrative.

    At least you have moved from “very significant” to “non-trivial” in your attempt to quantify an impression.

    • #65
  6. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Brian Watt: So, let me see if I understand what you’re saying. Podhoretz and Goldberg criticize Trump and then get inundated with anti-semitic remarks by Trump followers. And your problem is with Podhoretz and Goldberg? Or you’re positing that JPod and Goldberg are somehow using these personal attacks to smear the vast majority of Trump supporters? Please clarify.

    If I can mediate for a second, BThompson is saying that there is a significant portion of Trump support that is very ugly and you see the evidence of that when they go after Jewish critics of Trump.   He is not criticizing JPod or Jonah.  I don’t even think he is criticizing all Trump supporters.  Just a particularly bad faction of Trump support.

    • #66
  7. Brian Watt Inactive
    Brian Watt
    @BrianWatt

    Quinn the Eskimo:

    Brian Watt: So, let me see if I understand what you’re saying. Podhoretz and Goldberg criticize Trump and then get inundated with anti-semitic remarks by Trump followers. And your problem is with Podhoretz and Goldberg? Or you’re positing that JPod and Goldberg are somehow using these personal attacks to smear the vast majority of Trump supporters? Please clarify.

    If I can mediate for a second, BThompson is saying that there is a significant portion of Trump support that is very ugly and you see the evidence of that when they go after Jewish critics of Trump. He is not criticizing JPod or Jonah. I don’t even think he is criticizing all Trump supporters. Just a particularly bad faction of Trump support.

    Keep reading. I was tired last night and misread BT’s comments and admitted as much later in the thread. It’s all good. We’re good. I had a good night’s sleep.

    • #67
  8. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Brian Watt:Keep reading. I was tired last night and misread BT’s comments and admitted as much later in the thread. It’s all good. We’re good. I had a good night’s sleep.

    All cool.

    • #68
  9. Midget Faded Rattlesnake Member
    Midget Faded Rattlesnake
    @Midge

    Pilgrim:

    BThompson: Why would you be offended if you’re not one of those people? I didn’t say all of Trump’s supporters are white supremacists or sympathizers to that movement. I only said they make up a significant portion of it. Anyone who doesn’t believe there are a non-trivial number of such people or that the nativist rhetoric of Trump doesn’t appeal to them is being obtuse…

    I am offended because I see you advancing a narrative of guilt by association:

    Any Republican is now associated with Trump because of the 30-40% of “Republican voters” who state that polling preference. Since Trump supporters are “nativist bigots” (…want rational immigration policies…) and “white supremacists” (…believe that group identity politics and… racial spoils… undermine… society), any Republican candidate is the candidate of nativist bigots and white supremacists.

    The tea party was suppressed from a nascent movement to irrelevance by this kind of narrative.

    To be fair to BT, some of the white-supremacists vocally expressing enthusiasm for Trump really are white-supremacists.

    The problem, as Pilgrim notes, is that vastly many more who aren’t white supremacists or bigots get tarred as “just as bad” as the real white-supremacists because of their policy preferences, artificially fostering a narrative that Republican (even if only nominally Republican) candidates and conservative causes disproportionately draw support from kooks, bigots, and evil people.

    Both the defamers and the tiny but vocal fringe of real white-supremacists contribute to this problem.

    • #69
  10. Pilgrim Coolidge
    Pilgrim
    @Pilgrim

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake: Both the defamers and the tiny but vocal fringe of real white-supremacists contribute to this problem.

    Alright, now we have moved from “very significant” to “non-trivial” to “tiny.”

    Tiny I can live with.

    • #70
  11. Midget Faded Rattlesnake Member
    Midget Faded Rattlesnake
    @Midge

    Pilgrim:

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake: Both the defamers and the tiny but vocal fringe of real white-supremacists contribute to this problem.

    Alright, now we have moved from “very significant” to “non-trivial” to “tiny.”

    Tiny I can live with.

    I have no reason to believe that their numbers aren’t incredibly small. It seems to me that an outsized amount of attention is directed their way because they’re both very obnoxious people and juicy fodder for the press. Can anyone cite decently-documented figures demonstrating otherwise?

    • #71
  12. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake: Can anyone cite decently-documented figures demonstrating otherwise?

    It’s almost certainly a practical polling problem.  Who is going to admit to being a white supremacist?

    • #72
  13. Pilgrim Coolidge
    Pilgrim
    @Pilgrim

    Quinn the Eskimo:

    Midget Faded Rattlesnake: Can anyone cite decently-documented figures demonstrating otherwise?

    It’s almost certainly a practical polling problem. Who is going to admit to being a white supremacist?

    Easy enough: “You have indicated that you are white or a white Hispanic.  Should your son or daughter be admitted to your state’s best university if his/her H.S. grades and SAT scores are significantly higher than a non-white applicant’s qualifications?”

    • #73
  14. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    Because when you stare at the wheel for a bit then look away it looks opposite.

    • #74
  15. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Pilgrim: Easy enough: “You have indicated that you are white or a white Hispanic. Should your son or daughter be admitted to your state’s best university if his/her H.S. grades and SAT scores are significantly higher than a non-white applicant’s qualifications?”

    Trick question: Not likely to be significantly higher than an Asian applicant’s scores.

    Unless Asian is now another word for white.  These things get confusing sometimes.

    • #75
  16. Carey J. Inactive
    Carey J.
    @CareyJ

    The King Prawn:

    Carey J.:

    The King Prawn:The real deciding dropout will be Bush. Once the threat of a dynastic establishment candidate is eliminated then Trump’s protest supporters will have to make a real choice between conservatism (which Trump does not represent) and their electoral rioting.

    Not while Rubio remains viable. He’s simply ¡Jeb! lite, and as such, must be fought. To paraphrase Churchill, we shall defend our party, whatever the cost may be, we shall fight on the beaches, we shall fight on the landing grounds, we shall fight in the fields and in the streets, we shall fight in the hills; we shall never surrender.

    You keep using that word. I do not think it means what you think it means.

    The word “fight” certainly does not mean what the GOP establishment thinks it means. For decades, they’ve shown us they don’t know the meaning of the word “fight”.

    • #76
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