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At last, Lindsey Graham 
Slow down.
I’m fine with kicking Pataki, Huckster and Santorum from the primary party, but let’s not move too quickly to coronate the winner.
I hope Santorum and Huckabee jointly endorse Cruz as the most likely to carry the torch for traditionalists (even if he may not understand the concerns as well as they do).
Indeed. My guess is that many primary voters in 2012 would have liked to have the option of supporting Pawlenty as a solid alternative to the last three men standing (Romney, Gingrich, and Santorum).
You mean Heb! can’t just buy the race??? What’s this country coming to…
Interesting analysis. The other factor is that Trump may lose a few points when people see the other leading contenders emerge.
Rand should stay in just for the unique perspective he brings. It keeps the others honest, well…. kind of honest. The others could be running for vice-president, no?
No Christie or Huckabee jokes yet? We’re losing our touch, Ricochetti.
#yeswecan
I ran your analysis past my friend Goethe who looked away for a moment and said, “I see it exactly the other way.”
Just wait, the Pataki wave is coming…
Some people here are vastly overestimating Rubio’s appeal because of their terror of Donald Trump.
I’m sure glad you didn’t single out Gilmore. I think there’s momentum there. One can almost feel the rolling thunder in the distance. Or it’s something I ate.
Do you think Walker is regretting his exit at this point? If you narrow it down to your proposed field I would think Walker would be a pretty strong add. Maybe it’s the idea of Walker more than the candidate however. He did look like a 14 yr old on stage with the others…..
Some people here (and on talk radio) are vastly overestimating the intelligence, political competence and conservative temperament of Donald Trump because they are so angry with incumbent Republicans in Congress.
I’m surprised Graham dropped out at this point. It’s a month and change until the primary. Unless you’re losing money on the proposition, I’m not sure why any of the people likely to depart would go just yet.
I sympathize with the effort to remove the stragglers, but these are people with sizable egos. Besides, within 2 days of the New Hampshire primary we will be down to 6 or fewer.
Every one of the candidates has some supporters. Why should those supporters be disenfranchised by having “their guy/gal” drop out before the first vote is cast? Cruz was low in the polls early on, should he have dropped out? Would his supporters instantly switch to Fiorina? Santorum? Christie? Who got Walker’s supporters? Who got Perry’s supporters? We’ll never know because they dropped out too soon.
There are two reasons people want a candidate to drop out.
1) Their candidate is that much closer to winning. (assuming it wasn’t their candidate that dropped.)
2) We see Hillary and that no one is challenging her. If the Republicans were down to one candidate, she/he could go after her.
Folks, it’s over a year until the final vote…Chillax already.
The real deciding dropout will be Bush. Once the threat of a dynastic establishment candidate is eliminated then Trump’s protest supporters will have to make a real choice between conservatism (which Trump does not represent) and their electoral rioting.
I hesitate to agree with your allocation of support (I just don’t think we have enough data), but I wholeheartedly agree that it’s time for some to go, especially those near the bottom. Pataki and Gilmore should leave today. Though far more serious candidates, Huckabee and Santorum are going nowhere this cycle. While they poll a bit higher than some of the others, it’s quite obvious that Bush and Kasich have lost (what could possibly happen that would pave a way for either to win??). I’d love to see Paul leave because I disagree with him on national security issues.
But I want to see Fiorina and Christy stay for now because they add to the debates.
Well said. I agree.
And what happens if they don’t choose conservatism?
Can we put “conservativism” in quotes, as the word has no coherent meaning beyond “things I like.”
I’d like to see Christie stick around, just to pressure Cruz on his Paul-ish foreign policy.
The only problem with Bush dropping out is it will free up his consultants to advise other Republican candidates. That’s the last thing we need. At least they are off the streets right now.
If only some of them choose conservatism, it would be an improvement.
Trump supporters aren’t supporting Trump because Bush is in the race. They have better alternatives to Bush to choose from other than Trump. They are with Trump because they like Trump. His voting block is not a protest vote. He will only fade once the field goes down to two or three and he hits his true ceiling which is most certainly below 50% of the primary electorate. Unfortunately it’s probably a very solid 30-40% which means that until it’s a two man race, he will be competitive and probably win a plurality in many states.
Cruz will probably win a plurality in several states as well. The idiotic primary system and schedule sets up extremely well for him early on. Rubio needs to hang on for the first six weeks until all the other mainline GOP candidates drop, and unless all of them do, including the one with the deepest pockets does, Rubio will not break through.
My guess is Bush will try to outlast Rubio in the establishment lane unless he just never breaks double digits anywhere. Unfortunately he can probably do this long enough to ruin both his and Rubio’s chances of winning.
The GOP likely will nominate Cruz, but Trump has a very good shot.
The GOP is going to lose next fall, and it actually deserves to. Once the “true conservatives” get their Goldwater defeat, perhaps the party will regain some sense. Unfortunately it might not matter at that point.
Based on recent Congressional performance I expect electoral rioting for awhile.
I think first we have to define conservatism, but you ask a valid question.
Christie/Kasich/Jeb are going to torpedo Rubio in NH
if they stay in
Very few Trump supporters overestimate the intelligence, political competence and conservative temperament of Donald Trump. You have two types of Trump supporters:
1) You have Low Information Voters (LIVs)that support Trump out of name recognition, his hard line stance on immigration, and his anti-PC attitude. This group pays little attention to his ideology.
2) You have the GOP protest voters who don’t see Trump as better or more conservative than Republicans in Congress. They see Trump as the GOP’s nemesis. Here is a man that can finally make the GOP wake up or be destroyed. As they see it, the GOP is not representing the interests of their base and GOP needs to be slapped down. It is a burn-it-down strategy.
Almost all of the Trump supporters here at Ricochet are of type 2).
It’s really a shame that Fiorina isn’t doing better. She can mop the floor with half these clowns.