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Predictions: Top Ten Stories of 2016
Inspired by the last moments of this week’s Ricochet Podcast, I offer you my predictions for the Top Ten News Stories of 2016.
- US stock market crash. People will talk about it being the 1930s again.
- Hillary Clinton drops out of the race “for health reasons.”
- Electorate in UK votes to leave the European Union.
- Terrorist attack by jihadists at the Mall of America or a similar gun-free zone.
- Collapse of the Euro and the beginning of the break-up of the Eurozone into two zones.
- Republicans sweep White House, House of Representatives, and Senate.
- Trump leaves race after SEC Primary.
- Economic collapse in China as its centralized and managed economy implodes.
- Obama’s Imperial (and anti-American) Presidency becomes more so.
- Obama Administration’s Syrian refugee policy fails and poisons the Democrats electoral prospects.
Obviously, I’m not going to bet that all will occur, but I believe certain trends are going to result in events of this sort in 2016. It’s likely to be an annus horribilis for America and the Western world, with a few exceptions.
Comment, criticize and propose your own lists, as you wish.
Published in General
A very good list. Agree with most of your thoughts, but do not understand #7, “Trump leaves race after SEC Primary.” And what is your thinking here.
Items 2, 6 and 10 are not going to happen.
Scenario: Trump does not win in Iowa. He does well in NH but it’s only a plurality. The next big event is the SEC primary and Cruz has been organizing his ground game there to do well. Rubio wins Florida. So Trump looks like he has lost his momentum. His image as a winner is broken because he is equaled by Cruz and Rubio in delegate count. So, for the sake of his vanity he withdraws.
Yeah yeah yeah, gloom and doom, yada yada yada . . .
How ’bout this: The Cubs win the World Series. I know, they’re the current favorites which raises the possibility of a super-sized jinx: Schwarber and Bryant will undergo horrific sophomore slumps, Lester and Lackey are getting long in the tooth, Arrieta was a one-season wonder, Jason Hayward is a vastly over-paid defensive specialist, etc. but nevertheless – I believe! As John Cleese would say: “This time, definitely!”
Don’t think we get a stock market collapse until Republicans win the White House, cut taxes, reform regulations giving rise to a massive credit expansion, which triples the money supply, leads to inflation requiring strong restraint and an interest rate spike. Recuperation will be rapid and healthy for a change. Republicans must keep their cool and ignore the media frenzy. This can be avoided a little, if Republicans also drastically cut spending first, and if, in the mean time, the fed keeps raising rates and if markets continue cooling off.
Not a prediction for next year per se, but does anyone think that the current Scold-In-Chief, who is so found of telling us how we are disappointing him by clinging to our guns, religion and low marginal tax rates, will abide by the long-standing tradition in this country of former Presidents refraining from criticizing the current President?
Yeah, me neither.
I think Barack Obama will abide by that tradition just as much as Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Algore have.
That’s what I’m thinking too, mainly because it’s the last year of Obama. That means he’s got to squeeze in everything he can now, and so do all of America’s enemies, who must be figuring they will have more freedom of action in 2016 than in succeeding years.
That probably is good for Republicans, but I’d rather have a Democratic Party that wasn’t so off of its hinges that voting Republican was necessary to avoid disaster.
I’d like to feel that way about the Republican Party, too.
I like the list — It’s exciting: #2. Scary: #9, #1, and … well, OK, just everything else. But, Could you please work a just little longer/thoughtfully and predict at least one good news/hopeful Story for 2016? Thanks. <big smile>
Very good list. But a bit depressing. Now for a word from our sponsor
#11 NE Patriots win 50th Super Bowl.
Top predictions for 2016 (updated from 2015 without change).
You’re welcome!
I thought the Republicans taking the WH, House and Senate was good news because the long overdue change we need for the membership of the U.S. Supreme Court (i.e. replace some of the Gang of Four) is possible with that much control and impossible if the Dems control either the WH or the Senate.
Other good news, in a fashion, is that it will be possible to make big money on the stock market if you invest for a major downturn by “shorting” the market. I won’t get into the details because if you don’t know the techniques for doing that, you should probably not try it. Just go to cash and wait for the chance to buy stocks “on the cheap.”
If I had to add a leading Good News story for 2016 it would be that concealed carry of all those pistols being purchased for Christmas will become fashionable. It will also be a good year to own an indoor range. (Chicago, DC, LA and the States of CT, NJ and NY being the exception for both.)
Great list. If Hillary drops out, that leaves Bernie Sanders in sole possession of the nomination. Wow. No question that Obama’s Syria refugee program will be a mess, though with the media in the left’s hip pocket, the failure might not result in a rout for the Dems. I think that some of the items will likely occur (1 – Stock Market crash, 3 – UK leaves EU, 4 – Terrorist attack, 5 – EU collapse, and 8 – China economy collapse), though maybe not next year.
9 (Obama becomes more imperial) is a given. Also in the “given” department is the continued slow-motion collapse of blue cities and states.
Everything on your list is possible. Each item on its own is not all that likely, but one or more of the events you predict will happen.
It’s mainly a Republican tradition at this point.
I think Barack Obama will abide by that tradition just as much as Jimmy Carter, Bill Clinton, and Algore have.
In all fairness, I was very proud of how Clinton and George H. W. teamed up to respond to Haiti, back in the days when we thought the Clinton Foundation was about helping people other than the Clintons, and Cheney has thrown more than few high and tight fastballs at the current administration as well. The rule has been that Veeps can speak their mind, but Presidents need to act Presidential, something that Barack Obama has never done, even while in office.
I have to disagree. 9 and 10(a) are as certain as death and taxes.
Chinese Year of the Black Swan*.
*Not actually part of the East Asian zodiac cycle
#1. There is at least one statute that prohibits the president from giving away federal property such as Guantanamo and the right to administer the Internet without congressional authorization. He may try one or both anyway. He’s already moved to give away control of the Internet so that the Russians and the Chinese Communists can censor it.
#2. His pulling a James Buchanan (another Dem) is almost a certainty.
#3. I’m not going to worry about that scenario. 2016 is unlikely to be a cliffhanger. It’s going to be an electoral disaster for one party or the other.
Lensman at #13, Excellent! Only quibble “.. Republicans taking the WH …” is a good idea. I can only go as far as lesser of two evils. Given all the negative comments the GOP makes about conservatives, Tea Party, etc., I’m afraid that as the Democrat party became the Progressive party, the liberals made an exit stage right and took over the Republican party, so we’re are not going to see any reforms, a smaller government, or any moves towards fiscal responsibility. One example is Kasich preaching that the Bible supports socialism. Scary.
Regards, ” … “shorting the market …”, I can’t help but smile. My first thought when reading this prediction was, finally my turn to make some money, but as a value investor after the crash. I never got into the shorts much, but I could tell a few stories from when I worked at Morgan Stanley about some who got so much excitement from shorting that when it became addictive, they began to seek a similar “high” from markets beyond the stock market <smiling>. But not me, I prefer more stable ground. Options as a form of added return, in a different scenario, maybe, it’s been awhile. Besides, allthemoney in the IRA/401K, State/Union college/pension plans provide a big support system, even in a “crash” inflow continues. Government would never let it go too low, well, ok, maybe as a goodbye nod from BO if the Republicans take the WH. Nah.
More gun ranges=Good.
Yes. Already in motion (short ESH6)
Yes and more to come. This war will be fought in our streets and contribute to your prediction #1
Doubtful. As they allow their currency to float it is declining. That can sustain them longer than we think.
I think this is a very good list. Well done.
Are you an investor at all? Any donuts in the market?
If not, I’d appreciate it if you’d stop with the hysterical predictions that are more damaging than almost anything Obama has managed to do. I am cautious and recommend a bearish approach, but there is money to be made and people who don’t deal with it every single day annoy me when they make uneducated predictions.
BTW, first lesson to be learned about investing- never, ever listen to a single thing the media has to say. ESH6 is the best example; it speaks in generalities and gives no credence to individual stocks. If I could afford to be a client, the only person in the universe I would take advice from is Michael Burry.
Are these premonitions or just a synopsis of 2015 headlines?
In my experience the events of one year are usually a consequence of, and sometimes a continuation of, the events and trends of the previous year or two.
For example, the Euro has been in decline against the US Dollar for the past two years, down something like 20% in that time. The Eurozone has the stress of profligate countries like Greece living off of the wealth of more frugal/productive economies such as Germany. In my experience the events of one year are usually a consequence of, and sometimes a continuation of, the events and trends of the previous year or two.
For example, the Euro has been in decline against the US Dollar for the past two years, down something like 20% in that time. The Eurozone has the stress of profligate countries like Greece living off of the wealth of more frugal/productive economies such as Germany.
I would call it a set of extrapolations rather than premonitions. The economist Herb Stein is famous for saying, “If something cannot go on forever, it will stop.”
I don’t invest donuts.
Your concerns might have some merit if I had mentioned a particular investment or stock, or I had been more specific than sometime in 2016. What I invest in is my business and everyone is entitled to an opinion, even about the stock market. What I read (on my dime) besides the Wall Street Journal is my business. I’ll name drop Harry Dent, who has been a Cassandra about the market (for viewers of CNBC in addition to his subscribers) for the past six months, vs. your Michael Burry.
Each reader here can form an informed opinion on whether the market can crash in 2016. BTW, I didn’t quantify the extent of this Crash of 2016. However, a decline greater than the usual “correction” of 20%, when piled on top of a labor participation rate last seen in 1979, is likely to provoke historical comparisons, hysterical or otherwise.
What to make of the analysis from any commentator (me, Dent or Burry) is up to each individual, based on their own risk tolerance and overall assessment of where things are going. I quote Herb Stein in #26 about trends. Each person has to decide if they are comfortable betting on whether the current bull market can keep on “going on.”
Public sentiment about general trends of the stock market is (1) not going to be affected by pessimistic predictions expressed here; and (2) not going to have substantial effect on the macro-economic trends that will determine what happens in the next 12-18 months.
I have no idea of what “ESH6” is and I don’t particularly care. Mentioning particular investments is inappropriate.
As far as your ability to make money on particular stock investments, have at it. I recall reading that great stock picks and traditional diversification (Small Cap, Large Cap, Foreign, etc.) will not be enough if the entire stock market goes down because the good will get dragged down by the bad.
Texas Tech and Washington State are the 2016 Big 12 and Pac-12 conference champions, setting up an Air Raid showdown in next year’s playoffs!
FYI, ESH6 is a stock analysis report that Brent mentioned.
Certainly everybody is entitled to an opinion regardless of their participation; however, I’d hesitate to comment vehemently on a topic about which I only read. You gotta be in the game to understand the playbooks.
For instance, when the Patriots lost to Denver and Philadelphia, who was I to question Bill Belichick’s decisions?
ESH6 is a futures contract and has nothing to do with stock analysis. I am merely disclosing any positions I hold in prop/client account out of respect for Ricochet.