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October Jobs Report Is a Good One for “Crippled” America
Chart via Capital Economics.
You really have to dig to find much wrong with the October jobs report. The 271,000 net new jobs were 50% higher than expectations. At 5.0%, the unemployment rate fell to its lowest level in seven years, as did the share of involuntary part-time workers. Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4%, pushing the annual growth rate to a six-year high. Over the past year, the US economy has created 2.8 million jobs.
Want more good news? Here you go: The broader U6 measure of unemployment dropped to 9.8% vs. 11.5% a year ago. The labor force participation rate stayed steady, while the employment rate ticked up. As Barclays put it,”Beyond the headline number, the rebound was in almost all parts of the labor market.”
So Crippled America, the title of Donald Trump’s new book, seems an overly pessimistic take on the current state of things. As does Mike Huckabee’s crack about the future being one of “charred remains.” Republicans should acknowledge the economy’s improvement, point out weaknesses — such as continued slow economic, productivity, wage growth — and offer a modern, relevant, data-driven policy agenda for the future.
After all, 64% of Americans think the nation is headed in the wrong direction. Deep anxieties remain about future of work and living standards in a globalized, roboticized economy. But there is quite a bit of ground between a golden-age utopia and the zombie apocalypse. For an examination of these issues, please check out my upcoming AEI event: “The great American stagnation — or acceleration?“
Published in Economics
How much of this is fueled by seasonal hiring?
While these numbers seem positive, the overall trajectory of the West looks rather bleakish.
Which makes 2016 profoundly important as one of the last elections we’ll have to change course before we enter the post-western era… after which it will become increasingly difficult to turn things around.
Where are we going to find a serious heavyweight world leader who has experience reforming government and kick starting an economic renaissance?… kinda like what we saw after the ’94 Gingrich Revolution when Republicans forced Clinton to pass major conservative reforms and pro-growth policies which fueled the massive economic growth and unprecedented job creation of that era.
If you guys can think of anyone off the top of your head, let us know.
Hillary is definitely going to run on the economic successes of her husband’s administration… and she knows none of it would’ve happened if Newt hadn’t forced Bubba to push through Reagan’s policies with a national mandate.
Hopefully we can find a strong enough candidate who could decisively defeat the Clintons again in a landslide bigger than the ’94 earthshaker.
U3 is ridiculous. Stopped looking for work for four weeks because you’ve given up? You’re no longer included!
10% unemployment is pretty miserable for the US.
“Jobs Report Is a Good One ”
Until it isn’t. I’ve gotten so used to the media reporting “initial” economic news (“Obama saves the economy!”), then ignoring the inevitable revision to the stats, or burying the lede in the back pages (“Well, the economy isn’t so hot after all… but that’s the Republicans’ fault”). Now I just brush off this “good news”, knowing that only places like Ricochet and National Review will actually talk about the revisions.
They did the digging over at Zerohedge and point out that jobs for those 55 and over increased by 378k, and those 24-55 decreased by 35k.
It’s a great jobs report if you’ve given up on retiring.
So, you really believe the Obama Administration is being honest about the job numbers? That’s kinda cute.