Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Ben Carson Is the New GOP Frontrunner

 

For the first time since July 18, Donald Trump is not the GOP frontrunner. To create their polling average, Real Clear Politics uses the four most recent major national polls and maps the trend over time. As of today, Dr. Ben Carson leads the pack with Trump a very close second.

RCP-polling

The other sharp post-debate jump belongs to Sen. Marco Rubio, but there is a massive gap between his 11 percent and the two outsiders’ 24.3 percent and 25.3 percent. Well, at least the GOP’s Trump Fever finally broke and pundits can go back to the boring day-to-day horserace coverage they had planned on before The Donald infected the body politic. Eh, not so fast.

Combine the scores of the outsider candidates (Carson, Trump, and Fiorina) and then combine the scores of the rest of the field. This exercise has the outsiders leading the conventional politicians, 53.6 percent to 37.6 percent. You need to combine Rubio, Cruz and Bush’s numbers just to match Dr. Carson’s. Yes, Trump has fallen, but he’s down a single point — the brash New Yorker can convincingly shrug this off as “loser” pollsters and statistical “blah blah,” at least for the time being.

Of course, the real fights are state to state, with the first votes being cast in three months. In Iowa, Carson leads Trump by 3.5 percent and in New Hampshire, Trump leads Carson by 14 percent. If the professional politicians want to catch up to the outsiders, they’re going to have a very busy 90 days.

There are 40 comments.

  1. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Member

    The second-biggest story of that graph is the Fiorina faceplant. Interesting how the graph almost exactly tracks Carson’s in reverse – are her voters going to him?

    • #1
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:04 PM PST
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  2. Peter Meza Member

    Re: Fiorina faceplant.

    Dick Morris said it was the bloggers.

    • #2
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:15 PM PST
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  3. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    This is impossible – Trump is a winner.

    • #3
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:33 PM PST
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  4. KayBee Inactive

    Told you so.

    • #4
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:46 PM PST
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  5. iWe Reagan
    iWe

    Carly gets bumps in debates. If she sticks with it, I think she will be a top-4, and quite possibly the nominee.

    • #5
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:46 PM PST
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  6. Judge Mental Member

    iWe:Carly gets bumps in debates. If she sticks with it, I think she will be a top-4, and quite possibly the nominee.

    If/when either Trump or Carson leave, I think she picks up votes from them.

    • #6
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:50 PM PST
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  7. Frozen Chosen Inactive

    I think that Carson will have much more staying power than Trump but his odd statements will probably be his downfall. If they don’t kill him in the primary they surely will in the general.

    • #7
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:52 PM PST
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  8. Jim Kearney Contributor

    Not so fast. The new Rueters/Ipsos poll tells a very different story. “Carson plummets after most recent debate, while Donald Trump remains the leader.” 

    Note the size of their sample.

    Poll write-ups and predictions of Trump’s imminent demise — and there have been many — often carry a scent of wishful thinking.

    Scratch and sniff reportage of the Donald’s impending demise and you often find a Trump-bashing Twitter trail, or a huddle of Washington insiders.

    I’ll only trust this news if and when it comes from multiple, reliable, major polls with a very large sampling, and reported by a journalist (such as Rush Limbaugh) who is among the few not troubled by Trump’s ascendance.

    • #8
    • November 4, 2015, at 2:57 PM PST
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  9. Basil Fawlty Member

    Looks a bit like an Amazon price check graph from Camel, Camel, Camel.

    • #9
    • November 4, 2015, at 3:30 PM PST
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  10. BrentB67 Inactive

    Still interesting that two people not previously elected with inconsistent at best and sketchy at worst polices and/or ability to articulate them are leading the pack.

    Perhaps it is heartening to others to see the uptick in Rubio and Cruz.

    Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    • #10
    • November 4, 2015, at 3:43 PM PST
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  11. Jamie Lockett Inactive

    BrentB67:Still interesting that two people not previously elected with inconsistent at best and sketchy at worst polices and/or ability to articulate them are leading the pack.

    Perhaps it is heartening to others to see the uptick in Rubio and Cruz.

    Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    I still want Jindal in the next main stage debate.

    • #11
    • November 4, 2015, at 3:53 PM PST
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  12. BrentB67 Inactive

    Jamie Lockett:

    BrentB67:Still interesting that two people not previously elected with inconsistent at best and sketchy at worst polices and/or ability to articulate them are leading the pack.

    Perhaps it is heartening to others to see the uptick in Rubio and Cruz.

    Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    I still want Jindal in the next main stage debate.

    Amen and promote the gentleman.

    • #12
    • November 4, 2015, at 3:55 PM PST
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  13. Leigh Member

    Unless the polls are completely wrong anyway, which is after all more than possible.

    I’m not being simply cynical. I don’t see any way that you look at 2014 and at the Kentucky governor’s race this year — and put that in context of international flops which could be dismissed as unrelated, if the trends weren’t strikingly similar — and take national polls of “Republicans” as anything other than a vague guess.

    I’m guessing there’s no silent swelling of support for Pataki or Bush — but that’s a presumption. This does demonstrate that there are some significant number of people who view Carson favorably, and a somewhat similar number of people who view Trump favorably. But it doesn’t tell us anything meaningful about how large that number really is, or how well it correlates with people who actually vote in primaries.

    We actually know very little.

    • #13
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:01 PM PST
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  14. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Member

    Note that Trump did not go down – just sideways since August.

    I’ll third the Jindal promotion – once he gets exposure, he’ll get some traction. That guy is smart.

    Who wants to see a Jindal/Rubio/Bush/Cruz cagematch?

    • #14
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:02 PM PST
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  15. Flossy Inactive

    Jim Kearney:

    “I’ll only trust this news if and when it comes from multiple, reliable, major polls with a very large sampling, and reported by a journalist (such as Rush Limbaugh) who is among the few not troubled by Trump’s ascendance.”

    Flossy:

    Not so fast.

    While Rush has been a perennial icon of the conservative movement and was instrumental in mobilizing the ’94 Gingrich Revolution… for a quarter century he has made it clear that he’s not a journalist, but rather a play-by-play commentator and radio entertainer.

    And a good one.

    But as a longtime listener since before I could legally drive, I’m a bit troubled by Rush’s tacit support for an old friend & donor to the Clintons who also happens to be a talented entertainer.

    Rush of all people fully understands how the Clintons operate and their capacity for sneakiness. And he knows Trump is a recent convert to anti-establishment conservatism. So many of his loyal listeners are somewhat befuddled by Limbaugh’s legitimization of a hotheaded showman with poorly matched skills for leading the West through its most challenging period in modern history.

    Many out there would like to know what’s going on with Rush?

    • #15
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:07 PM PST
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  16. Spin Coolidge

    BrentB67: Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    Well, remember, they are all competing with each other. If the graph were showing how they polled against Hillary, then your statement would be more accurate, I think.

    • #16
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:19 PM PST
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  17. BrentB67 Inactive

    Spin:

    BrentB67: Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    Well, remember, they are all competing with each other. If the graph were showing how they polled against Hillary, then your statement would be more accurate, I think.

    The latest one on Max’s thread shows Carson and Bush (I dunno why) beating her, all else losing to her.

    • #17
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:28 PM PST
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  18. Percival Thatcher

    If the Donald no longer has a yuge lead, he’s going to have to rewrite about 80% of his stump speech.

    • #18
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:32 PM PST
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  19. Spin Coolidge

    BrentB67: and Bush

    It’s clearly inaccurate, then.

    • #19
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:34 PM PST
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  20. Leigh Member

    BrentB67:

    Spin:

    BrentB67: Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    Well, remember, they are all competing with each other. If the graph were showing how they polled against Hillary, then your statement would be more accurate, I think.

    The latest one on Max’s thread shows Carson and Bush (I dunno why) beating her, all else losing to her.

    On the other hand, the latest Quinnipiac one shows Trump losing to her and Carson, Rubio, Cruz, and Christie beating her. Evidently they didn’t ask about Bush. (Ouch!) Sanders loses worse to Carson and Rubio and does slightly better against Cruz and Christie.

    All those details are meaningless, I think — Trump polls worse than other Republicans quite consistently though he’s occasionally competitive — I think that is the only thing these polls tell us definitively.

    Hillary Clinton will be a strong but not invincible candidate, and any dips or rises in unreliable polling mean nothing this far out.

    • #20
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:38 PM PST
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  21. Spin Coolidge

    BrentB67:

    Spin:

    BrentB67: Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    Well, remember, they are all competing with each other. If the graph were showing how they polled against Hillary, then your statement would be more accurate, I think.

    The latest one on Max’s thread shows Carson and Bush (I dunno why) beating her, all else losing to her.

    I’m being needlessly…something…here, but your comment was regarding the graph above, not Max’s graph. So my comment regarding your comment stands. Clearly I cannot choose the graph in front of me.

    • #21
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:39 PM PST
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  22. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian):The second-biggest story of that graph is the Fiorina faceplant. Interesting how the graph almost exactly tracks Carson’s in reverse – are her voters going to him?

    Exactly.

    • #22
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:54 PM PST
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  23. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive

    BrentB67:Still interesting that two people not previously elected with inconsistent at best and sketchy at worst polices and/or ability to articulate them are leading the pack.

    Perhaps it is heartening to others to see the uptick in Rubio and Cruz.

    Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    I think that this is the strongest electorate in years, certainly. Heh.

    • #23
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:57 PM PST
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  24. BrentB67 Inactive

    Spin:

    BrentB67:

    Spin:

    BrentB67: Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    Well, remember, they are all competing with each other. If the graph were showing how they polled against Hillary, then your statement would be more accurate, I think.

    The latest one on Max’s thread shows Carson and Bush (I dunno why) beating her, all else losing to her.

    I’m being needlessly…something…here, but your comment was regarding the graph above, not Max’s graph. So my comment regarding your comment stands. Clearly I cannot choose the graph in front of me.

    You are correct. I was responding to the comment about a poll showing how they compete with Hillary.

    • #24
    • November 4, 2015, at 4:58 PM PST
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  25. Spin Coolidge

    Leigh: Hillary Clinton will be a strong but not invincible candidate, and any dips or rises in unreliable polling mean nothing this far out.

    I think this is exactly right.

    • #25
    • November 4, 2015, at 5:03 PM PST
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  26. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive

    Flossy:Jim Kearney:

    “I’ll only trust this news if and when it comes from multiple, reliable, major polls with a very large sampling, and reported by a journalist (such as Rush Limbaugh) who is among the few not troubled by Trump’s ascendance.”

    Flossy:

    Not so fast.

    While Rush has been a perennial icon of the conservative movement and was instrumental in mobilizing the ’94 Gingrich Revolution… for a quarter century he has made it clear that he’s not a journalist, but rather a play-by-play commentator and radio entertainer.

    And a good one.

    But as a longtime listener since before I could legally drive, I’m a bit troubled by Rush’s tacit support for an old friend & donor to the Clintons who also happens to be a talented entertainer.

    And he knows Trump is a recent convert to anti-establishment conservatism.

    Many out there would like to know what’s going on with Rush?

    Rush has explained before that he doesn’t slag the frontrunner, and that picking a nominee in the primary is not his job. You won’t hear him endorse in the primary. Trump is a friend of his — he’s up-front about that.

    Not to worry, Rush will get back in the car when the time comes. Sigh.

    • #26
    • November 4, 2015, at 5:04 PM PST
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  27. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive

    Spin:

    BrentB67:

    Spin:

    BrentB67: Reading that graph challenges the statement: “this is the strongest field in years.”

    Well, remember, they are all competing with each other. If the graph were showing how they polled against Hillary, then your statement would be more accurate, I think.

    The latest one on Max’s thread shows Carson and Bush (I dunno why) beating her, all else losing to her.

    I’m being needlessly…something…here, but your comment was regarding the graph above, not Max’s graph. So my comment regarding your comment stands. Clearly I cannot choose the graph in front of me.

    Your intellect is dizzying.

    • #27
    • November 4, 2015, at 5:06 PM PST
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  28. Jim Kearney Contributor

    Flossy:(Rush Limbaugh) has made it clear that he’s not a journalist, but rather a play-by-play commentator and radio entertainer.

    … as a longtime listener since before I could legally drive, I’m a bit troubled by Rush’s tacit support for an old friend & donor to the Clintons who also happens to be a talented entertainer.

    … he knows Trump is a recent convert to anti-establishment conservatism. So many of his loyal listeners are somewhat befuddled by Limbaugh’s legitimization of a hotheaded showman …

    Many out there would like to know what’s going on with Rush?

    Rush is not a reporter, he’s an entertainer who editorializes for fun and profit. Whatever pleases teaches most effectively. I trust his journalistic information. Like when he cited facts about the Kentucky polling on today’s show.

    Rush doesn’t endorse. He seems to like Cruz, but wonders if he has “it.” Maybe he identifies with Trump as a fellow “hotheaded showman” (your words, not mine.) They’re probably neighbors in Palm Beach, they brandish their egos as a form of humor, they dispatch their enemies quickly, and they take the immigration crisis seriously. How could Rush Limbaugh not appreciate Donald Trump?

    Are “many” Rush listeners “befuddled…”? Or is that a projection off anecdotal conversations? I’m sure some are, especially if they’ve strapped themselves to an austere, ascetic ideology. Others, including free-wheeling Tea Party people who know what it’s like to re-invent themselves, know that the Founders wanted all kinds of successful citizens to volunteer for public service during an interval of their lives.

    I think Rush sees Trump as the best shot to keep Hillary out of her former residence. He is as big a celebrity as she is, and there are a lot of people who feel familiar with him. Not all vote on logic, argument, reading and analyzing issue proposals, etc. Some decide late and on instinct. Many only vote when they feel a part of something. Trump is providing that.

    My best guess is the bloc of potential voters not firmly aligned with one of the two major Party ideologies is the fastest growing, the least print-oriented, and the most emotionally connected to the world of celebrity and entertainment. They’re impatient with position papers — a tweet or a quick briefing will do. So-called “low information” voters are not just zombies who voted for Obama and want more of the same.

    Given what people are consuming in the media these days, some of them probably just want a President who will be fun to see on the news everyday. They don’t care what Trump thinks about this or that issue, they just know he’s a titan. The Presidency has become so central to the daily pulse of our country, that it seems to demand someone whose personal magnitude matches that of the office.

    • #28
    • November 4, 2015, at 5:12 PM PST
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  29. jetstream Inactive

    What is the Fiorina faceplant?

    • #29
    • November 4, 2015, at 5:24 PM PST
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  30. 4CuriousJohn Thatcher

    I’m really surprised that Carly hasn’t caught on more. I guess I can look for the long haul, assuming Trump and Carson are just sideshows to the real deal. Go! Carly Go!

    • #30
    • November 4, 2015, at 5:30 PM PST
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