Canada’s New PM: Looks Shallow but May Have Depth

 

08_23_cal_trudeau_robsonfletcherPrime Minister Justin Trudeau swore in his new cabinet today, striking for its number of political rookies. In our Parliamentary system, the Cabinet is usually picked from a small set of politicians (imagine if America’s cabinet had to be made up only of congressmen, and you get the idea).

Usually, seniority is a primary consideration, but Trudeau picked a collection of political rookies. He seemed to match his MPs based on strangely superficial grounds: Hey, an astronaut, let’s put him in Transport; look, a Paralympian, let’s put her in charge of sport and the disability departments; the quadriplegic should get Veterans’ Affairs! Trudeau’s remarks and ceremony consciously echoed Obama’s.

I have to admit, though, he has attracted some pretty impressive resumes — people who committed to a run back when the Liberal Party had fewer than 10 percent of the seats in the House of Commons and was fighting for its life. That indicates Trudeau has developed some powers of persuasion (he sure didn’t have them when I met him in 2005).

Of note for the American conservative:

  1. Finance Minister Bill Morneau is, unusually, a rookie but with an impressive résumé building one of Canada’s largest HR firms. Most people have never heard of him but he’s getting good reviews in the financial press. Market is ambivalent so far. He will spend on infrastructure (per election promises) but is a reassuring pick to conservatives.
  2. Foreign affairs is Stephane Dion, a disastrous former Liberal leader who may be well suited. In the 1990s he was intergovernmental affairs, which means corralling unruly provinces (an important job in Canada). Americans will be shocked by his shaky English. He’s single-minded and stubborn, and faceplants about as often as he shines. English Canadians like him because he outmaneuvered the separatists in 1997 with what has turned out to be a permanent wound. He’s also a hard-left environmentalist, which may shine through in this post.
  3. Our new Defence Minister, Harjit Sajjan, is a hero of the Afghan war. Again, a turban-wearing Canadian may look surprising to Americans, but Indo-Canadians have a strong history in law enforcement and the Canadian forces, and by all accounts he’s a pretty good guy. Another political rookie, though — it’s not clear that he has the sophistication required to deal with America on its military priorities. My bet: Americans can look for cooperation from him on North American issues, but Canada will refrain from most international military deployments. He was born in India but was raised in Canada.
  4. You normally wouldn’t care about the Environment Minister, but with upcoming climate change conferences, it matters. A human rights and “social justice” lawyer, I have no doubt Catherine McKenna is a leftie, but she’s also a political rookie. The appointment is notable in that she is not an accomplished environmentalist, like some of those who were passed over. Look for Canada to take a green turn, but more in platitudes than policies that matter. The Federal government will stop pushing so hard for Keystone, but the company is likely to still cautiously pursue it.
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  1. Tenacious D Inactive
    Tenacious D
    @TenaciousD

    I take the new finance minister’s CD Howe involvement as a reassuring sign. New defence minister was a Lt. Col., which is also good in my opinion.
    Stephane Dion: his appointment looks like a signal that climate change will be a keystone of Canadian foreign policy over the next 4+ years (he named his dog Kyoto). I also wonder how long it will be before we’ve got unarmed blue helmets stuck in some no-win situation?

    • #1
  2. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    screenshot.5

    • #2
  3. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Also, re Stephane Dion: The tradition of getting the preceding party leader out of the country continues.

    Foreign minister under Mulroney: Joe Clark

    Foreign minister under Harper: Peter McKay

    Out of the country = Best place for a possible leadership rival

    • #3
  4. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Inactive
    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian)
    @VorpalPedanttheCanadian

    Tenacious D:I take the new finance minister’s CD Howe involvement as a reassuring sign. New defence minister was a Lt. Col., which is also good in my opinion. Stephane Dion: his appointment looks like a signal that climate change will be a keystone of Canadian foreign policy over the next 4+ years (he named his dog Kyoto). I also wonder how long it will be before we’ve got unarmed blue helmets stuck in some no-win situation?

    I saw the Dion appointment as a way to keep him away from green issues.  There are only so many opportunities for that kind of agenda in foreign affairs (with the possible exception of the climate conference – we’ll see who the government gives that file to).

    • #4
  5. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian):

    Tenacious D:I take the new finance minister’s CD Howe involvement as a reassuring sign. New defence minister was a Lt. Col., which is also good in my opinion. Stephane Dion: his appointment looks like a signal that climate change will be a keystone of Canadian foreign policy over the next 4+ years (he named his dog Kyoto). I also wonder how long it will be before we’ve got unarmed blue helmets stuck in some no-win situation?

    I saw the Dion appointment as a way to keep him away from green issues. There are only so many opportunities for that kind of agenda in foreign affairs (with the possible exception of the climate conference – we’ll see who the government gives that file to).

    Note that Trudeau plans on attending these international summits personally, thereby cutting his new minister off at the knees right from the get-go.

    • #5
  6. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Inactive
    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian)
    @VorpalPedanttheCanadian

    Misthiocracy:

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian):

    Tenacious D:I take the new finance minister’s CD Howe involvement as a reassuring sign. New defence minister was a Lt. Col., which is also good in my opinion. Stephane Dion: his appointment looks like a signal that climate change will be a keystone of Canadian foreign policy over the next 4+ years (he named his dog Kyoto). I also wonder how long it will be before we’ve got unarmed blue helmets stuck in some no-win situation?

    I saw the Dion appointment as a way to keep him away from green issues. There are only so many opportunities for that kind of agenda in foreign affairs (with the possible exception of the climate conference – we’ll see who the government gives that file to).

    Note that Trudeau plans on attending these international summits personally, thereby cutting his new minister off at the knees right from the get-go.

    The rookie will learn: if he goes personally, people can ask him questions directly.  If he sends a minister, people know they’re not talking to a decision-maker, and he can avoid being cornered.  Climate conferences are the worst; most countries send representatives of representatives of representatives, which is why nothing binding ever comes out of them (by design).

    • #6
  7. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian):

    The rookie will learn: if he goes personally, people can ask him questions directly. If he sends a minister, people know they’re not talking to a decision-maker, and he can avoid being cornered. Climate conferences are the worst; most countries send representatives of representatives of representatives, which is why nothing binding ever comes out of them (by design).

    a) What people? The Canadian media? Pfft. They’re his own personal PR team.

    b) He doesn’t have to worry about being cornered if he’s a true believer.

    c) He can make all the commitments he wants at these summits, because he can count on the media to blame the next Conservative government for any failures.

    • #7
  8. Percival Thatcher
    Percival
    @Percival

    I for one am prepared to withhold judgement on Prime Minister Bieber.

    • #8
  9. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Inactive
    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian)
    @VorpalPedanttheCanadian

    Misthiocracy:

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian):

    The rookie will learn: if he goes personally, people can ask him questions directly. If he sends a minister, people know they’re not talking to a decision-maker, and he can avoid being cornered. Climate conferences are the worst; most countries send representatives of representatives of representatives, which is why nothing binding ever comes out of them (by design).

    a) What people? The Canadian media? Pfft. They’re his own personal PR team.

    b) He doesn’t have to worry about being cornered if he’s a true believer.

    c) He can make all the commitments he wants at these summits, because he can count on the media to blame the next Conservative government for any failures.

    Misthi, you are a cynic!

    I have no love for this guy, but the road to his PMO is littered with the bodies of people who have underestimated him.  I don’t think he’s a true-believing environmentalist.

    He may get into problems from his naivite, but it won’t be from his principles – I haven’t seen evidence that he has many.

    • #9
  10. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian): Misthi, you are a cynic!

    a) Thank you. The ancient cynics vowed to see the world as it is, not how they wished it to be.

    b) How is it cynical to assume a politician isn’t lying? Seems downright idealistic to me.

    • #10
  11. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Trudeau’s base: People who have nothing better to do on a workday but stand around in the street:

    The large and diverse crowd that gathered on the grounds of Rideau Hall to witness the arrival of the new Liberal government found themselves framed by a dazzling blue sky and a sun-streaked canvas of autumn foliage.

    They watched on large video screens dotted around the grounds as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his new cabinet took their oaths. As the names were called, they applauded and cheered like the crowd at a sporting event greeting the starting line-up on the day of a big game.

    The watchword for the next four years: Spectacle.

    • #11
  12. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Tenacious D:I also wonder how long it will be before we’ve got unarmed blue helmets stuck in some no-win situation?

    I don’t think that’s likely. The Chretien liberals did that back when the public clamoured for “action” whenever there was news of some international crisis. Nowadays, post-Afghanistan and post-Iraq, the popular sentiment is to just keep the troops at home. There is very little appetite for overseas deployment of ANY kind. The Dauphin made zero promises about using Canadian troops abroad for anything other than natural disaster relief.

    • #12
  13. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Inactive
    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian)
    @VorpalPedanttheCanadian

    Misthiocracy:

    Tenacious D:I also wonder how long it will be before we’ve got unarmed blue helmets stuck in some no-win situation?

    I don’t think that’s likely. The Chretien liberals did that back when the public clamoured for “action” whenever there was news of some international crisis. Nowadays, post-Afghanistan and post-Iraq, the popular sentiment is to just keep the troops at home. There is very little appetite for overseas deployment of ANY kind. The Dauphin made zero promises about using Canadian troops abroad for anything other than natural disaster relief.

    It used to be that if some bully was beating the tar out of nearby people (Serbia, Iraq I, Afghanistan, Zaire) we’d consider going over to help those seeking refuge.

    Now, we “solve” it by bringing (a tiny few of) them here!

    Canada may again wish to deploy peacekeepers if a) everyone else is doing it too; b) some of the Syrian “refugees” start causing problems; and c) it doesn’t seem too risky.

    Not exactly a stirring principle, but also not impossible to foresee.

    • #13
  14. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    I have a large cadre of Syrian “refugees” being “relocated” not far from where I live.

    I will be packing heat.

    • #14
  15. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    Misthiocracy:Trudeau’s base: People who have nothing better to do on a workday but stand around in the street:

    The large and diverse crowd that gathered on the grounds of Rideau Hall to witness the arrival of the new Liberal government found themselves framed by a dazzling blue sky and a sun-streaked canvas of autumn foliage.

    They watched on large video screens dotted around the grounds as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his new cabinet took their oaths. As the names were called, they applauded and cheered like the crowd at a sporting event greeting the starting line-up on the day of a big game.

    The watchword for the next four years: Spectacle.

    Watchword: Marijuana, and lots of it.

    • #15
  16. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Shiny Pony.

    • #16
  17. Mike LaRoche Inactive
    Mike LaRoche
    @MikeLaRoche

    Sacré bleu!

    • #17
  18. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Pseudodionysius:

    Misthiocracy:Trudeau’s base: People who have nothing better to do on a workday but stand around in the street:

    The large and diverse crowd that gathered on the grounds of Rideau Hall to witness the arrival of the new Liberal government found themselves framed by a dazzling blue sky and a sun-streaked canvas of autumn foliage.

    They watched on large video screens dotted around the grounds as Prime Minister Justin Trudeau and his new cabinet took their oaths. As the names were called, they applauded and cheered like the crowd at a sporting event greeting the starting line-up on the day of a big game.

    The watchword for the next four years: Spectacle.

    Watchword: Marijuana, and lots of it.

    Medical marijuana is already legal in Canada, thanks to the Conservatives. I predict he’ll merely tweak the law on that front, but he’ll spin that it’s a revolutionary reform. The press will lap it up, too.

    The biggest effect of the coming Trudeau years will be the relationship between the elected government and the unelected bureaucracy. i.e. The elected government will let the unelected bureaucracy do whatever it bloody well wants with next-to-no accountability.

    This will be spun as “evidence-based governance”, with the bureaucracy providing whatever evidence is required.

    • #18
  19. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Trudeau talked about how his government was made up exclusively of extraordinary Canadians.

    Isn’t that a disheartening message to send to ordinary Canadians?

    “You aren’t good enough to be part of my government.”

    • #19
  20. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Trudeau’s being lauded for his 50% gender-parity cabinet, but he only appointed three more women than Stephen Harper did. Trudeau has 15 female ministers, while Harper had 12.

    In order to achieve his vaunted 50% gender parity cabinet, Trudeau had to reduce the cabinet from 39 seats to 30.

    He managed this feat by combining several portfolios into one. For example, he took on the Intergovernmental Affairs porfolio and the Youth portfolio himself, removing two cabinet positions from the equation.

    Now, I’m not necessarily complaining about a smaller cabinet.  There is ZERO need for a Ministry of Youth. But then, of course, the ministry itself still exists. It’s just that the minister is also the Prime Minister.

    The point, rather, is that his cabinet is just the first example of how he’s gonna “keep his promises” via smoke and mirrors.

    Source: http://news.nationalpost.com/full-comment/tasha-kheiriddin-spare-us-the-fawning-trudeau-appointed-just-three-more-women-to-cabinet-than-harper-did

    • #20
  21. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Inactive
    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian)
    @VorpalPedanttheCanadian

    Well spotted, Misthi.

    (we have a Ministry of Youth???)

    • #21
  22. Pseudodionysius Inactive
    Pseudodionysius
    @Pseudodionysius

    • #22
  23. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Macleans.ca has an article about Stephane Dion being named foreign minister is his “redemption”.

    Since when was a demotion considered a redemption?

    • #23
  24. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian):Well spotted, Misthi.

    (we have a Ministry of Youth???)

    Well, to be fair, it was a Secretary of State position, not a full ministry…

    • #24
  25. Dan Hanson Thatcher
    Dan Hanson
    @DanHanson

    Wow,  I’m not very heartened by these picks at all.

    I’ll give you Bill Morneau,  simply because I don’t know much about him.  But as for the others…

    Foreign Affairs:  Nothing says you’re serious about foreign affairs than appointing a ‘disastrous former Liberal who face-plants as often as he shines’.  Foreign affairs is a serious cabinet post, at a time when the world is coming apart at the seams.   I remember Dion as being completely hapless.

    I’ll reserve opinion on the defence pick until I see what he says and does.  This is another person I simply don’t know.

    Catharine McKenna is a social justice warrior and little good can come of that.  Her last big project was to stop a memorial for the victims of communism.  I guess we can’t risk offending the surviving  followers of Stalin, Lenin, Mao, Pol Pot, Che Guevera  or any of the other illustrious figures of the communist movement.  I’m sure if they had a victims of Capitalism memorial,  she would have been all for it.

    But you didn’t mention the big change.  She is not the minister of the environment – she’s the minister of the environment and climate change.   Climate Change is now a cabinet-level department.

    These Liberals are firmly in the center of the modern progressive movement,  which means they are way to the left of the average Canadian.    They buy into the entire progressive package:  Growing an economy through printing money and spending it willy-nilly,  ‘green jobs’ that will make radical carbon reductions free,  corporatism and capitalism as the root of all evil in the world, yada yada.

    The question is how far they will take their goofball ideas when the evidence starts to trickle in that they don’t work.  Of course,  they have lots of evidence of that already:  this is essentially the Obama playbook.  Man, those green jobs sure transformed the American workforce,  didn’t they?

    • #25
  26. Tenacious D Inactive
    Tenacious D
    @TenaciousD

    Misthiocracy: The watchword for the next four years: Spectacle.

    Actual CBC headline: Justin Trudeau’s biggest selfie day ever

    • #26
  27. Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian) Inactive
    Vorpal_Pedant (the Canadian)
    @VorpalPedanttheCanadian

    Dan, I can’t disagree with much that you say (I was trying to be optimistic, but as I wrote my post I found it hard to identify bright spots).  I guess I was heartened that these people seem a cut above the child legislators in Alberta and the crazy Fed NDP caucus that is (thankfully) back to third-party status.

    But even if they’re smarter – and I think they are – there is reason to believe they are standard-issue lefties.  That said, consider: Canadian Liberals are not an analogue to the US far left, since our far left (thankfully) self-segregates into the powerless NDP.

    Liberals follow the formula of: “I feel your pain, I really want to see big programs and to help poor people; if you put me in charge, I won’t destabilize anything, but you’ll know I’m doing everything I can.”  Lots of apolitical, middle-class squishes like this message, even though in practice the Liberals end up with a mandate to govern as centrists (campaign on the left, govern on the right).

    I’ll give you that Trudeau seems to believe his own rhetoric (he comes without knowledge of the real world), and he got a mandate to run deficits (!), but I don’t think he’s an ideologue like Obama.  Once Bay St has a conversation with him, I think he will scale back the crazy.

    Or not.  We shall see.

    • #27
  28. Tenacious D Inactive
    Tenacious D
    @TenaciousD

    Misthiocracy: The biggest effect of the coming Trudeau years will be the relationship between the elected government and the unelected bureaucracy. i.e. The elected government will let the unelected bureaucracy do whatever it bloody well wants with next-to-no accountability. This will be spun as “evidence-based governance”, with the bureaucracy providing whatever evidence is required.

    With enthusiastic participation by a good portion of the media, to really seal the deal.

    By the way, I hope you’re right about avoiding half-baked UN deployments. I worry that there will be public pressure to “do something to restore ‘Canada’s international reputation'”–and what better than some grandiose UN contribution.

    • #28
  29. Tenacious D Inactive
    Tenacious D
    @TenaciousD

    Dan Hanson: corporatism and capitalism as the root of all evil in the world, yada yada.

    While doing at least as much as the Tories by way of corporate welfare.

    • #29
  30. Dan Hanson Thatcher
    Dan Hanson
    @DanHanson

    I guess we will see which Liberals wind up actually governing – the Paul Martin wing of the party or the Pierre Trudeau wing of the party.

    I’m old enough to remember Trudeau well,  and what an incredible disaster he was.  Martin,  and to some extent Cretien  governed center-right and corrected a lot of the elder Trudeau’s excesses and somewhat restored the Liberal brand as one of middle-way governing.  In fact,  Martin’s government was significantly more fiscally conservative than Mulroney’s.

    But the left in general has come completely unhinged since the 2007 recession.   Their mutated quasi-Keynesianism gives them license to borrow and spend as much as they want in the name of ‘growth’, and the Climate Change Movement (as opposed to actual climate change science) has become firmly wrapped in anti-capitalist social justice dogma.

    Lately I’ve been trying to read Naomi Klein preparatory to writing an article about her asinine ‘no logos’ movement.  She’s considered to be a major figure in Canadian progressive circles,  and her work has become increasingly bizarre over time.   She can’t write about Climate Change without somehow invoking George Bush,  BlackLivesMatter, gay rights, etc.

    Reading her, I was reminded that to modern progressives it’s all tied together and wrapped in a giant steaming mound of anti-capitalist nonsense.   It all falls under the umbrella of ‘social justice’.  In fact,  many of them are now trying to call Climate Change ‘Climate Justice’.   It’s not about the science – it’s about beating the west over the head with their ‘injustices’  and transferring massive wealth and political power to the ‘powerless’.

    The scary thing is that this stuff is no longer considered radical,  but has infiltrated the mainstream.  I’d like to think that the Liberals aren’t quite as far gone as the NDP in this regard,  but elevating ‘Climate Change’ to a cabinet position,  promising a new ‘green’ economy paid for with borrowed money  and raising people like McKenna to cabinet positions doesn’t bode well for their moderation and good sense.

    Here in Alberta,  people said that the NDP here were not radicals like eastern NDP,  but were a common-sense Alberta variant which was really pretty conservative and safe to vote for.   Then we got hit with massive new spending,  new taxes,  a huge deficit, new regulations,   new ‘diversity’ initiatives,  ‘infrastructure stimulus’ throwing billions of dollars to public union interests,  and a cabinet full of lefty lightweights and activists.   So much for moderation.

    Maybe I’m just bitter about it all.

    • #30
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