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Ricochet GOP Poll Results
September has been quite an interesting month for the GOP nomination race — and for the Ricochet primary. I think the changes have been unsurprising, since we’re seeing previous second- and third-tier candidates moving up. It seems Ricochet members are pretty set about their preferences and honest about it.
Here’s how the top choice breaks down:
The second choice is identical in order. We see Carson pop up a bit. Rubio and Fiorina, together, take the majority of votes. Basically, members are set on one of these two candidates, with the other as the alternative.
Next, I looked at the second-choice candidates. Below is where Rubio voters go:
Below is where Fiorina voters go. (Notice how Rubio and Fiorina are substitute goods, as it were.)
I also took a look at where Cruz voters go, just out of curiosity. Interestingly, they split between Rubio and Fiorina:
Finally, some trend data on the top three candidates this month:
I hope to grab the trend data for the rest of the field, as requested, but that’ll take a little more time to compile.
Published in General, Politics
Great work Bereket!
A Rubio/Fiorina ticket would be very attractive in a general election. Both are great communicators.
Equally glad to see the names that don’t show up in the poll results: Bush, Trump and especially Kasich (going for the Jon Huntsman vote, apparently, but with even more attitude).
How steady are the participation rates in these polls? I’d be surprised if you’re polling the same people every time.
Interesting, nonetheless. Thanks.
Based on the Member Feed posts and comments late last month this appears very heavily influenced by opinion from the last debate performance.
Thanks for the extra time doing this Bereket.
how awesome would a Cruz/Rubio/Fiorina/Jindal debate be?
alas, it won’t happen
It would be awesome, but I think a lot of folks would be very disappointed in the outcome.
I started to say, yea but what do we know, but I have a question. I see my own views reflected here. I drift around these three and if I thought Cruz or Jindal could win a general election, I’d raise Cruz and include Jindal. What is it we’re reacting to. Just talk, they push the right buttons? Electability? Does seeing Rubio praised here take away some of our doubts?
I think it reflects, attractiveness, articulation, and aggressiveness in that order.
I don’t think it reflects policy specifics.
A good discussion would be over what each candidate represents. I’d say Rubio represents forward lookingness (is too a word), Fiorina represents deft and clear communication, Cruz represents ideological purity, and Jindal represents creativity. Other thoughts on this?
Yet another reason to cancel my Ricochet subscription.
Kasich seems to be the choice of all the Democrats I know when asked “If you had to vote Republican, who would you choose . . . ”
That’s telling.
But what does it tell us? Could it say that if he’s conservative enough to be acceptable to sizable number of republicans and also a viable option for democrats who don’t want to vote for their criminal in chief that he becomes a serious possibility?
Who is your candidate, BP?
Nice summary, KP.
And way to coin a word.
Should have hyphenated though…
It tells me that he’s really just a Democrat. : )
But he wasn’t always one was he? I mean he was the budget guy under Newt when we forced the philanderer-in-chief to sign balanced budgets.
A Republican amnesty flack will not be president. Maybe later he could be el Presidente de los Estados Unidos but I wouldn’t bet on that either.
These results give me some hope that the country, and the human race, can be saved.
I’ve once heard an utterance on this site that Cruz would make a fabulous attorney general. I agree. I think Cruz has a piercing intellect, dedication to conservative virtues, respects the US Constitution, and would serve his post well were he AG. OTOH, a Rubio/Fiorina ticket is very appealing.
Rubio has been my top choice and orginal choice also despite being pissed at him a while ago for is amisty/increase the headcount and power of burraracy betrayal. I actaul believe him and take him at his words when he says something unlike cruz. I would love to see Jeb Bush as his chief of staff. Jeb is a really good hardworking wonk that really knows how to get things done in political institutions.
At least he got burned by make-nice democrat play BEFORE getting into the White House. Unlike GWB. It would be nice if Marco confronted that directly so we could have some comfort that he had learned his lesson. “Beware of Democrats who reach across the aisle….”
BK, nice charts and analysis. Carly is looking positively parabolic.
True enough. If Rubio could have avoided being played and especially for so long I wouldn’t have had a problem. It is hard to feature Chuck Schumer as part of a make nice effort. A normal person would want to bath after having even incidental contact. Maybe I was lucky to see who Rubio is. California here we come. Right now the same crowd is playing with letting a whole bunch of bad guys out of prison to relive the 70s and 80s. No doubt the down, down USA crowd will think they are wonderful people while normal people suffer from increases in all kinds of crime.
I still don’t see him being the nominee of the current Republican Party and if he jumps that hurdle he won’t be president. The entire Chamber of Commerce presidential effort has missed the mood of most of the party. Neocons and libertarians will continue their optimistic embrace of the demographics of California and try to think of insulting explanations of why the Donald keeps his poll number despite always slipping.
If a Republican wins and it isn’t Cruz, then Ted should be the first nominee to the Supreme Court, not Attorney General.
I mean, who had more influence on America, Alberto Gonzales or John Roberts?
In fact, that should be a litmus test for all of the other candidates – Will you put Ted Cruz on the Court? Say no and you are disqualified.
There is still too much outward-looking American greatness talk among the leading candidates. None has yet caught the mood of the conservative base, which is resolutely inward.
Time to take back the country. Time to clean up the mess.
Let Syria rot.
As someone who still thinks Rubio is not ready and who wants to support a Kasich/Fiorina ticket with Rubio as Secretary of State, I have to say Kasich is making it very very hard to stay on the bandwagon. I will vote for Rubio without hesitation, but I guess I feel like the old time Dems in 1960 that really wanted a Stevenson/Kennedy ticket.
I am strongly prejudiced towards effective conservative purple-state governors. I think that’s a resume that can tell us something about a candidate’s priorities and depth of commitment to principle that we simply can’t learn from a red-stater –especially a first-term backbench legislator. I also think that kind of political experience is better preparation both for the national campaign trail and for actual governance in Washington, D.C.
So Kasich and Bush ought to be my first choices, in whatever order. And instead right now they’re towards the bottom of my preference list.
I do think Bush is more conservative than he’s given credit for — but he’s given a few very bad indicators and the family name is a legitimate question and potential disqualifier. As for Kasich, if he seemed a plausible candidate I would have to give him a closer look and find out what else (beyond the few bad things I know) has really been going on in Ohio. But everything about his campaign so far is making me hope that doesn’t happen.
Oh, and Christie? I nearly forgot about him. I like listening to him debate, so long as I don’t have to take his candidacy too seriously.
Let’s see what happens to Jeb’s rating among conservatives when Peter Schweizer’s “Bush’s Bucks” comes out in a week or two.
Pretty good list KP
Thanks, Instugator-and everyone!