Paul Ryan for Speaker?

 

593px-Paul_Ryan_at_Utah_fundraiser_2012With Kevin McCarthy out, Rep. Paul Ryan is — inevitably — under immense pressure to run for speaker of the house and to give Boehner a way out of it. Ryan, however, has made it abundantly clear for years that he does not want the job.

Every politician under the sun talks about their family when choosing not to run for some higher office, so it’s no surprise that Ryan says he wants to be based in Janesville, Wisconsin and see his three kids as much as possible. But every remotely fair-minded reporter I’ve read ends up convinced that Paul Ryan actually means it and isn’t merely being coy.

He also means it when he says — as he has for years — that he’s a policy guy, not a political guy. He doesn’t want to round up votes; he wants to focus on ideas. He’s in his niche right now, and not easily replaced. Forcing him into a job outside his natural talent could destroy his ability to be the party’s de facto policy leader, and he knows it. And yet, if he were persuaded it were his duty for the good of the country, I think he would do it.

Ryan holds the respect of much of the caucus in a way neither Boehner nor McCarthy could. Even as some conservatives urge Rep. Trey Gowdy to run, Gowdy took himself out — and essentially endorsed a theoretical Ryan bid.

Does Ryan, after all, have the talent to do the job Boehner and McCarthy can’t? Or would it simply be a cruel waste of policy talent and an honorable reputation to put him in an impossible job he does not want?

It is beyond my judgment, and most of ours. God give the man wisdom.

Image Credit: By love4utah [CC BY 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons

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  1. Man With the Axe Inactive
    Man With the Axe
    @ManWiththeAxe

    donald todd: Damn the vetoes, full speed ahead.

    That’s a good line.

    • #31
  2. Jager Coolidge
    Jager
    @Jager

    Al Kennedy:

    donald todd:So who do the House conservatives owe?

    If the Party at large is throwing a snit, holding the House conservatives up for scorn hardly cuts it.

    Conservative ideas are permitted in committee and if found acceptable, are moved to the floor of the House for the vote.

    In a war of ideas, the party with none loses.

    The Freedom Caucus should reflect the views of those who voted for them. They also need to remember that is true of every member elected. Some of whom disagree with them. Their job is to work our the differences between those views.

    It may have been better if as speaker Boehner had applied this logic. Members are responsible to their voters and there are disagreements that need to be worked out.

    Rather the good Speaker chose to attack and punish those who disagreed with him.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/246080-boehner-doles-out-new-punishment

    • #32
  3. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    EJHill:Louie Gohmert had it right yesterday. By postponing the vote after the McCarthy collapse, Boehner did what all dictators do when they can’t name their successor. Instead he should have called a meeting of the caucus, closed the doors and let them have it out. You know, like a democracy. The caucus needs to find its own compromise without the heavy hand of the Speaker.

    I agree and I am a big fan of Gohmert, but in this case I think he is an example of part of the problem.

    If he thinks Boehner is running things like a dictator why doesn’t Gohmert run for the position. Heaven knows he has a mailbox full of support begging him to in the past years, some of which has my return address on it.

    • #33
  4. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

    Brian Clendinen:

    It will not be Webster but Webster would be great.

    Let me put it this way the only reason I have not given up on Republicans is there are still a few politicians that have integrity and are actually are willing to sacrifice to bring about change.

    Brian, I’m sorry, you didn’t convince me.  I’m sure Daniel Webster has integrity and is a wonderful representative, but I have seen him on about 7 or 8 interviews, and I would not vote for him if he was running in my district.  What does he stand for outside of the fact he believes the House should be run from the bottom up instead of the top down?

    • #34
  5. Man With the Axe Inactive
    Man With the Axe
    @ManWiththeAxe

    What would have been Ryan’s situation vis-a-vis his family if he had been vice-president these last few years?

    • #35
  6. Doug Watt Member
    Doug Watt
    @DougWatt

    Is it realistic that a group of 40 can hold the House hostage? Perhaps the House will become a Parliament, no consensus and endless votes for Speaker as Democrats throw their hats into the ring. If Boehner wanted to burn the House down he could have just walked away and said I’m done. No Speaker then no legislation of any kind is allowed. If Hillary isn’t indicted be prepared for Madame President.

    I’ve obtained a secret photo from Area 51 of Air Force pilots practicing the skills that will be needed to escort the new Air Force One.

    • #36
  7. Duane Oyen Member
    Duane Oyen
    @DuaneOyen

    donald todd:By pressing the case for someone who would let conservative legislation get to the president’s desk for whatever fate awaited it, and then deciding what the appropriate response is by not have unilaterally disarmed the Congress with a rash promise, would be much better than what we have now.

    Because politics is a blood sport, no bean bags allowed.

    Please explain how “conservative legislation” gets to the presidents desk through the Senate filibuster.  We can take 600 symbolic votes- wasting time better put to use on separate appropriation bills.

    • #37
  8. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Duane Oyen:

    donald todd:By pressing the case for someone who would let conservative legislation get to the president’s desk for whatever fate awaited it, and then deciding what the appropriate response is by not have unilaterally disarmed the Congress with a rash promise, would be much better than what we have now.

    Because politics is a blood sport, no bean bags allowed.

    Please explain how “conservative legislation” gets to the presidents desk through the Senate filibuster. We can take 600 symbolic votes- wasting time better put to use on separate appropriation bills.

    Eliminate the 60 vote requirement for cloture.

    I don’t think there is much path to get conservative legislation to the President’ desk either, but we don’t have to send him full funding for his agenda either.

    • #38
  9. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

      So what?BrentB67:

    If he thinks Boehner is running things like a dictator why doesn’t Gohmert run for the position. Heaven knows he has a mailbox full of support begging him to in the past years, some of which has my return address on it.

    I love Louie too although I don’t vote in Texas.  The fact is that at times the Speaker will act like a dictator.  That has been true since we became a republic.  So what?  The job of the speaker is to herd cats and get legislation through the House.  I don’t think Louie would be better at that than Boehner or McCarthy.

    • #39
  10. Jager Coolidge
    Jager
    @Jager

    BrentB67:Leigh, I think you are correct about the conduct of the House conservative caucus in this matter. This is not their finest moment.

    I understand they dislike Boehner’s leadership and his condescending, opportunistic treatment of them, but there comes a time when carping from the back bench doesn’t cut it.

    I think they either need to nominate their guy, whoever that is, maybe Jim Jordan, for Speaker or pipe down.

    This line of “we don’t like your guy, but don’t have one of our own” is growing tiresome.

    Is it possible that some of this is “your guy doesn’t like us, so we won’t vote for him”? There have been an number of stories about Republicans who did not support Boehner being striped of their committees. After a while I imaging being punished for doing what your voters expect gets a bit old.

    http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/06/boehner-moves-to-punish-dissenters-despite-no-retribution-pledge/

    • #40
  11. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Duane Oyen:

    donald todd:By pressing the case for someone who would let conservative legislation get to the president’s desk for whatever fate awaited it, and then deciding what the appropriate response is by not have unilaterally disarmed the Congress with a rash promise, would be much better than what we have now.

    Because politics is a blood sport, no bean bags allowed.

    Please explain how “conservative legislation” gets to the presidents desk through the Senate filibuster. We can take 600 symbolic votes- wasting time better put to use on separate appropriation bills.

    I like your idea about doing the separate appropriations bills. Just don’t appropriate everything.

    • #41
  12. Z in MT Member
    Z in MT
    @ZinMT

    As Brian Clendinen points out the House Freedom Caucus is backing Webster. So don’t, disparagingly say “You can’t beat something with nothing.” just because you don’t like the choice. Everybody is complaining about the House Freedom Caucus, but the problem is that nobody in the House can gather 218 votes from the Republican caucus.  Jim Jordan and Jeb Hensarling can’t even if they wanted it. Apparently Jason Chaffetz can’t either, or people wouldn’t be pushing for Ryan.

    I think we are really starting to see the cracks show in the Republican coalition of conservative middle class voters and the US Chamber of Commerce. The voters have all the votes, but the US Chamber of Commerce controls the campaign cash.

    • #42
  13. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

    Jager:

    Al Kennedy:

    Rather the good Speaker chose to attack and punish those who disagreed with him.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/246080-boehner-doles-out-new-punishment

    Boehner simply acted as Speakers in the past always did.  He was brought up on that this was the way to behave as Speaker.  Times have changed, and he didn’t understand that.  So emigrate him as having a tin ear, but not as being a poor speaker.

    • #43
  14. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Al Kennedy:

    So what?BrentB67:

    If he thinks Boehner is running things like a dictator why doesn’t Gohmert run for the position. Heaven knows he has a mailbox full of support begging him to in the past years, some of which has my return address on it.

    I love Louie too although I don’t vote in Texas. The fact is that at times the Speaker will act like a dictator. That has been true since we became a republic. So what? The job of the speaker is to herd cats and get legislation through the House. I don’t think Louie would be better at that than Boehner or McCarthy.

    I think he would be much better than Boehner or McCarthy, but it would be hard to tell because of the 3 parties in Congress.

    • #44
  15. Larry3435 Inactive
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    Unless Ryan has a magic wand and a mystical ability to suspend the Constitution, he cannot give the “into the valley of death” wing of the Party what they want (whatever the heck that is).  Ryan does not strike me as being stupid enough to throw himself into a lose-lose situation.

    • #45
  16. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Z in MT:As Brian Clendinen points out the House Freedom Caucus is backing Webster. So don’t, disparagingly say “You can’t beat something with nothing.” just because you don’t like the choice. Everybody is complaining about the House Freedom Caucus, but the problem is that nobody in the House can gather 218 votes from the Republican caucus. Jim Jordan and Jeb Hensarling can’t even if they wanted it. Apparently Jason Chaffetz can’t either, or people wouldn’t be pushing for Ryan.

    I think we are really starting to see the cracks show in the Republican coalition of conservative middle class voters and the US Chamber of Commerce. The voters have all the votes, but the US Chamber of Commerce controls the campaign cash.

    Z, there isn’t an official list of members of the Freedom Caucus that I can find outside of wiki. Is Webster a member or is he just who they are backing?

    Thanks.

    • #46
  17. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Al Kennedy:

    Jager:

    Al Kennedy:

    Rather the good Speaker chose to attack and punish those who disagreed with him.

    http://thehill.com/homenews/house/246080-boehner-doles-out-new-punishment

    Boehner simply acted as Speakers in the past always did. He was brought up on that this was the way to behave as Speaker. Times have changed, and he didn’t understand that. So emigrate him as having a tin ear, but not as being a poor speaker.

    A good Speaker will keep up, stay in touch.  So I will both denigrate and emigrate him as a bad Speaker.

    • #47
  18. Man With the Axe Inactive
    Man With the Axe
    @ManWiththeAxe

    Question: Who are the Democrats going to vote for? If it’s a given that the speaker is going to be one Republican or another, is it possible that the Dems might have some ability to sway the choice, if they were smart enough? Or is that too strange to factor in?

    • #48
  19. EJHill Podcaster
    EJHill
    @EJHill

    Re: The Speaker as Dictator.

    By changing the House rules on committee chairmen the Speaker’s power was greatly diminished. The other source of the office’s power lay in appropriations. The House has chosen to abrogate this power to the executive and to the Senate. What little remains they refuse to wield it. Because a shutdown is “bad optics.” Collapse of the Constitutional order is bad optics, too, but no one in the GOP leadership seems overly concerned about that, either.

    • #49
  20. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Man With the Axe:Question: Who are the Democrats going to vote for? If it’s a given that the speaker is going to be one Republican or another, is it possible that the Dems might have some ability to sway the choice, if they were smart enough? Or is that too strange to factor in?

    Democrats have the ability to vote present and put the spotlight solely on the republicans. I believe both Pelosi and Stoyer have mentioned this tactic recently.

    • #50
  21. Man With the Axe Inactive
    Man With the Axe
    @ManWiththeAxe

    BrentB67:

    Man With the Axe:Question: Who are the Democrats going to vote for? If it’s a given that the speaker is going to be one Republican or another, is it possible that the Dems might have some ability to sway the choice, if they were smart enough? Or is that too strange to factor in?

    Democrats have the ability to vote present and put the spotlight solely on the republicans. I believe both Pelosi and Stoyer have mentioned this tactic recently.

    But don’t they actually get to cast a vote for a candidate if they choose to?

    • #51
  22. Jager Coolidge
    Jager
    @Jager

    Doug Watt: Is it realistic that a group of 40 can hold the House hostage?

    I have not been able to see anything other than a Wikipedia page that gave the membership of the Freedom Caucus. I did find this article from NR the discussed the Freedom Caucus. It is invitation only as a group and was set up to have a cap of 40ish members.

    http://www.nationalreview.com/article/397170/meet-freedom-caucus-joel-gehrke

    I guess we don’t have the information that Boehner or McCarthy had as far as vote counts. So the opposition that either or both of these guys faced could be significantly more than 40.

    • #52
  23. BrentB67 Inactive
    BrentB67
    @BrentB67

    Man With the Axe:

    BrentB67:

    Man With the Axe:Question: Who are the Democrats going to vote for? If it’s a given that the speaker is going to be one Republican or another, is it possible that the Dems might have some ability to sway the choice, if they were smart enough? Or is that too strange to factor in?

    Democrats have the ability to vote present and put the spotlight solely on the republicans. I believe both Pelosi and Stoyer have mentioned this tactic recently.

    But don’t they actually get to cast a vote for a candidate if they choose to?

    I don’t know. Good question.

    • #53
  24. Jager Coolidge
    Jager
    @Jager

    BrentB67:

    Man With the Axe:

    BrentB67:

    Man With the Axe:Question: Who are the Democrats going to vote for? If it’s a given that the speaker is going to be one Republican or another, is it possible that the Dems might have some ability to sway the choice, if they were smart enough? Or is that too strange to factor in?

    Democrats have the ability to vote present and put the spotlight solely on the republicans. I believe both Pelosi and Stoyer have mentioned this tactic recently.

    But don’t they actually get to cast a vote for a candidate if they choose to?

    I don’t know. Good question.

    Yes they can vote for whoever they want. The Speaker theoretically is the Speaker for the whole House not just the majority party. That is why the number 2 office is Majority Leader. Democrats can vote for Pelosi, a republican or not vote.

    • #54
  25. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    My impression, and correct me someone, is that the Democrats get to vote on the final floor vote.  I don’t know if you need a majority or a plurality though, so I am not sure if the Republicans split in enough ways whether the Democrats can reinstall Pelosi.

    If you do need a majority, there isn’t a reason why they couldn’t all vote for a candidate with minor support against the majority of Republicans supporting a different candidate.

    I would not put it past Republicans to fall into either trap.

    • #55
  26. Man With the Axe Inactive
    Man With the Axe
    @ManWiththeAxe

    Quinn the Eskimo:My impression, and correct me someone, is that the Democrats get to vote on the final floor vote. I don’t know if you need a majority or a plurality though, so I am not sure if the Republicans split in enough ways whether the Democrats can reinstall Pelosi.

    If you do need a majority, there isn’t a reason why they couldn’t all vote for a candidate with minor support against the majority of Republicans supporting a different candidate.

    I would not put it past Republicans to fall into either trap.

    I keep hearing that a single candidate needs 218, so no Pelosi. But if a Republican can get, say, 200 votes, the Dems could put him over the top. I wonder whether that is the least bit realistic.

    • #56
  27. Umbra Fractus Inactive
    Umbra Fractus
    @UmbraFractus

    donald todd: Since a lot of the Republican voters are unhappy with the Republicans politicians in general, the idea that the House conservatives are throwing a snit doesn’t go very far. If the Party at large is throwing a snit, holding the House conservatives up for scorn hardly cuts it. At least the House conservatives are getting the idea. What idea? That ignoring the people who vote them in is a bad idea.

    Unfortunately the current situation plays into the main criticism of Congressional conservatives which is that they say, “We have to fight,” but leave, “Then what?” unanswered. They want Boehner out but they can’t say who they want in? This is why conservatives keep losing; “We have to fight,” is not enough.

    • #57
  28. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Man With the Axe: I keep hearing that a single candidate needs 218, so no Pelosi. But if a Republican can get, say, 200 votes, the Dems could put him over the top. I wonder whether that is the least bit realistic.

    I’m thinking more like 188 Democrats plus 30 Republicans, even if the Republican is more conservative but less popular or temperamentally suited to the top spot.  Something like the Democrats voting for the House equivalent of Ted Cruz as Speaker, someone who is considered a thorn in the side of his colleagues.  A vote for the purpose of sowing discord.

    • #58
  29. Mr. Dart Inactive
    Mr. Dart
    @MrDart

    Is Webster a member or is he just who they are backing?Thanks.

    No.  Webster isn’t a member but he would get 40 bloc votes from the caucus.  A lot of very conservative representatives, Trey Gowdy for example, are not members of the Freedom Caucus.  It’s not true that “only” 40 Republicans saw Boehner’s rule as a problem.

    Two days before Boehner surprised everyone I happened to be at a meeting with my rep Mick Mulvaney (R-SC5) here in the district.  (Mick and Jim Jordan are usually cited as the founders of the Freedom Caucus– it was a bit more organic than that actually.)  He made it very clear that a severe breach was opening and that there would be many members who would not vote for a CR that contained funding for PP. That was the bridge too far.

    Mick related an interview where Boehner said (paraphrased) I don’t know what those guys (the Conservatives in the caucus) want. I talk to donors all the time and they’re happy.

    • #59
  30. Salvatore Padula Inactive
    Salvatore Padula
    @SalvatorePadula

    Jager:

    Is it possible that some of this is “your guy doesn’t like us, so we won’t vote for him”? There have been an number of stories about Republicans who did not support Boehner being striped of their committees. After a while I imaging being punished for doing what your voters expect gets a bit old.

    http://dailycaller.com/2015/01/06/boehner-moves-to-punish-dissenters-despite-no-retribution-pledge/

    Perhaps the main point of having political parties is that they provide a mechanism for people who are generally ideologically aligned with each other to maintain the discipline necessary to advance their joint cause. Being a party affiliated elected official necessarily means surrendering some of your autonomy. If you think that GOP congressmen should be able to break the party whip without consequence, what is the point of having a GOP? Now, I’m not saying that the party line is sacrosanct or that congressmen should never vote their consciences, but those who want to get credit for having the courage to buck the leadership to stand up for their principles should expect there to be consequences for doing so.

    • #60
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