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Crimea River, Says Sputnik News
Today’s report on the unbelievably fraught, perilous, unstable, and ghastly state of the world is brought to you by Russia’s пропаганда organ Sputnik News. (I still cannot believe they gave it that Leika-the-Space-Dog of a name: Didn’t they market test that? Hell, maybe they did — maybe I’m just old as dirt and these new-fangled Millennials think Sputnik sounds like a totally credible name for a Russian newspaper.)
Anyway, they write:
Jumping at a Chance? US Makes Fuss of Russia Violating Turkish Airspace
While Moscow and Ankara have already settled the matter of Russia’s accidental incursion into Turkish airspace, the US still seems to be in a fuss about it: an anonymous American official has insisted he does not believe it was an accident, reiterating that US is “deeply concerned over Russian movement in Turkey’s airspace.”
While Turkey seems to be satisfied with Russia’s explanation of its accidental violation of Turkish airspace on Saturday, the US seems to be unwilling to drop the issue.
“I don’t believe that this was an accident,” Reuters quoted some anonymous US defense official as saying in Madrid, describing the incident as the “violation of a NATO member’s sovereignty”.
Well yes, we are making a bit of a fuss, given that this sounds a lot closer to what must have happened — and it’s according to the Financial Times, whose reporters I know and trust and who don’t work for newspapers called “Sputnik.”
Nato accused Moscow on Monday of “irresponsible behaviour” after Russian jets violated Turkish airspace along the border with Syria over the weekend.
Following an emergency meeting of Nato ambassadors in Brussels, the alliance demanded that Russia immediately cease incursions by its fighter jets, saying that they created “extreme danger”.
The incidents provoked a sharp response from Ankara which warned that it would hit back against any repeat violation of its airspace. Russia blamed the foray on a “navigational error”.
But on Sunday, Turkey’s army reported that two of its jets had also been harassed by a MiG-29 while patrolling the border with Syria. The Russia-made MiG had placed the two aircraft under radar lock for a total of nearly six minutes.
The stand-off underlines the increased risk of military clashes as Russia steps up its bombing campaign in areas of Syrian airspace where Nato allies are also operating.
“Russia’s actions are not contributing to the security and stability of the region,” said Jens Stoltenberg, Nato secretary-general. “I call on Russia to fully respect Nato airspace and to avoid escalating tensions with the Alliance.” …
Turkey’s western allies have been alarmed by the escalation in tensions with Russia. A senior diplomat said that Turkey had suggested it would in future shoot down any wayward Russian jets. “This is very worrying, it is heating up,” said one senior official from a Nato country.
“Russia’s incursion into Turkish airspace is reckless and worrying,” said Richard Moore, the UK’s ambassador to Turkey. “UK and its other Nato allies stand shoulder to shoulder with Turkey.”
Some Nato officials, concerned that the alliance could be dragged into an unintended incident between Russia and Turkey, are urging Ankara to come to an arrangement with Moscow. It is unclear whether the incident will be put on the agenda of a planned meeting of Nato defence ministers in Brussels later this week.
Two Turkish F-16s intercepted the Russian fighter in Turkey’s airspace over the weekend, according to the Turkish foreign ministry. Turkish media reports suggested that Ankara officials were initially unsure whether the fighter jet belonged to the Syrian or Russian air force, before determining it was a model used only by Moscow.
The incident follows days of tension on the Syrian border. Last week, another Russian plane violated Turkish airspace while bombing a Syrian village near the country’s border. Turkey responded by scrambling its jets. …
By targeting areas in Syria’s north, Moscow has made Turkey’s plans to set up a no fly-zone over parts of the region seem increasingly untenable. Ankara has been pressing its allies to establish a safe zone south of its border to protect civilians and give Syrian rebels a bridgehead against forces loyal to president Bashar al-Assad.
Moscow says the incursions were a mere “navigational error.”
A navigational error. The planes in question were apparently an Su-30SM and an Su-24 Fencer. What’s scarier to you: The idea that the finest pilots in the Russian military can’t figure out how to use a those fancy navigation systems? That they don’t know how to program a flight route? That they can’t read a map, perhaps? Use a GPS? Or even look out the window? “По Гоша, Ivan, we’re not in Latakia! Look down! That’s Turkey.” Or is it that when they got lost, their first instinct was to put a coalition aircraft under a radar lock for a full five minutes and 40 seconds?
Or is it that obviously they did this for fun, and are now fully expecting the world to nod blandly and say, “Innocent navigation mistake, yep, happens all the time, why, just yesterday I meant to drive to the Pentagon, missed my exit, wound up in Yonkers, no idea how that happened?”
Meanwhile, Russia’s sent its main Black Sea battle ship, the Moskva, to the eastern Mediterranean for a bit of exercise:
A variety of ships, including the Moskva, were reported to have left from Russia’s Sevastopol port in Crimea Thursday, according to the independent Turkish ship-spotting blog Bosphorus Naval News. The ships will transit through the Black Sea and then onward to the eastern end of the Mediterranean. …
The Russian ministry of defense said the exercises would commence in the next few days and run until October. Russia reestablished its Mediterranean fleet in 2012 after it was disbanded at the end of the Cold War in 1991.
The Russian navy has recently extended its ability to operate in the Mediterranean by partially reestablishing an old Cold War base known as Tartus that lies on Syria’s west coast. That, along with an air base in northwestern Syria, has allowed Moscow easier military supply routes into Syria.
Now, it might be true that those who don’t know history are doomed to repeat it. But the argument against studying history is still pretty good, because that dooms you to remember that it’s repeating itself even when you can’t do a damned thing about it.
Thus today’s history lesson — because if I’m doomed to remember it, I’m taking you all down with me — is on the Crimean War.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7r162leq1vY
Or for a longer version:
In November 1853 the Russian Black Sea fleet based at Sevastopol and the Turkish fleet met at the Battle of Sinope. The Turkish fleet was sunk. It was a provocative action by Russia because she had no real reason to fear Turkey. The affair was reported in the British press as the ‘Massacre of Sinope’, and caused fever-pitch anti-Russian feeling among the public. It also strengthened the ‘war faction’ in the Cabinet, for unexplained and obscure reasons. Perhaps a combination of reasons were responsible: it has been argued that
- perhaps the long peace — since 1815 — had created a desire for war. It provoked patriotism and expressed the British cock-sure attitude which resulted from her economic, territorial and free trade strength
- Sinope was a naval victory: Russia clearly had a Black Sea fleet which needed to be defeated before it got into the Mediterranean. The British felt that the Russian naval threat could not be allowed to grow
- Britain was becoming more and more dependent on trade, especially with India and the east: Sinope followed the Great Exhibition of 1851 that had demonstrated Britain’s industrial pre-eminence in the world. The Mediterranean trade and the routes to India could not be jeopardised
- In Britain, the ‘war party’ had been growing since the summer of 1853.
Even moderate papers like The Times demanded retribution before Russia over-ran Turkey: Russia could do this legitimately, since Turkey was the country that had declared war on Russia. Demands were made for a British fleet to be sent to the Straits, but the Cabinet was divided between ‘war’ and ‘peace’ factions, resulting in indecision. Clarendon, the British Foreign Secretary said that Britain was ‘drifting towards war’ — something that Aberdeen was trying to avoid. However, he was in an impossible position because not to help Turkey would lead to an expansion of Russian power and to help Turkey meant war. Aberdeen let events drift towards war by indecision in preventing it. By Christmas 1853, the British government was left with little choice.
In the winter of 1853, Lord John Russell proposed a Reform Bill in an attempt to strengthen the Coalition. It was rejected but Palmerston resigned to show his hostility to parliamentary reform. His resignation coincided with the government’s indecision over Sinope, but was misinterpreted as a sign of Palmerston’s disapproval of the government’s foreign policy. That whipped up the war party’s enthusiasm in Britain. The British government’s dithering continued until March 1854, largely because of Cabinet divisions; then in March 1854 Britain and France jointly declared war on Russia ostensibly in defence of Turkey, but really to control Russia expansionism.
From the Vienna Note onwards, it is difficult to see how war could have been avoided: this was even Gladstone’s view. Palmerston may have been right: stronger action taken earlier might have stopped Russia. There was some element of Russia calling Britain’s bluff, following the Czar’s informal talks with Aberdeen in 1844, when Aberdeen’s low-profile approach had intimated to the Czar that Britain would never go to war over Turkey. There is much evidence to suggest that Czar Nicholas I was under the illusion that British foreign policy towards Turkey had changed: even that Britain might consider the partition of Turkey, to end the problem; certainly he believed that Britain would not fight over the issue. The long gap of four months before Britain did declare war strengthened Russia’s misapprehension. They had expected Britain to rush in, if she was going to do anything. It was a shock for the Czar to discover that British policy towards the Ottoman Empire had not changed.
So, as Victorian Web asks:
Who was responsible for the Crimean War?
The Sultan? Had he been encouraged to act like this by past events? Stratford Stratford had said that Britain would help, so the Sultan declared war on Russia because he knew the Allies would come to his rescue.
Russia? They had always looked to expand into Turkey but withdrew if strongly opposed.
Britain? Aberdeen’s apparent change of policy might have encouraged Russia.
France? Napoleon III was looking for prestige.
Austria? She could have resisted Russia and joined the Allies.
And doesn’t this all sound ever-so-familiar?
Those who don’t know history might at least have a bit of peace of mind, I suspect. If it were to do over, I’d never read a word of it.
Published in Foreign Policy, General, History
Point of ignorance on my part: is the Bosphorus legally under Turkish control, or is it international?
Answered my own question.
We have always been at war with Eastern Airlines.
For anyone who knows,
Where is the sixth fleet?
Regards,
Jim
And then to prove it, they did it twice.
And it’s the fault of Turkey for not coming to an “arrangement” with Moscow to avoid people getting upset when things like this happen.
I figure Putin is doing a good job of establishing boundaries at the outset. I didn’t say I like him. I said he’s doing a good job.
Not ignorant at all, great question with huge implications. It’s oh-so-Turkish, but governed by a very weird treaty, the Treaty of Montreux. I explained the alarming peacetime consequences of it here:
But surely you don’t think the Su-24’s navigation systems so backward that flying into Turkey “by mistake” — (twice in a weekend, then again yesterday, and I haven’t checked the news today) — sounds plausible. You don’t need sophisticated avionics to look out the window and say, “Oh, hey, it’s Turkey!” I did it every time I flew in and out of Turkey — the weather was apparently fine over the weekend. That border’s obvious:
Especially since they claimed they were planning to go there (below). Now, I’m admittedly not a great navigator myself, but if I couldn’t see the Med, yet could see nice, even Turkish roads, Turkish flags, Turkish artillery positions, and lots of barbed wire fences, it might just occur to me that maybe I’d just flown northeast, not southwest, right over the Syrian border and into Turkey — and maybe I should smile politely, identify myself, and skedaddle — as opposed to putting a lock on the first F16 I see.
And I’m not even all that practical when it comes to these things.
I meant that sarcastically — yes, you’re right.
That would be yours truly. The editors usually write their own headlines.
Aha!
The Sixth Fleet!
Regards,
Jim
The USS Porter transited the Dardenelles en route to the Black Sea yesterday after hosting students from Vlore, Albania for a career day and cultural learning event. (Your tax dollars at work). The USS MountWhitney returned to Gaeta, in Italy, after nine months in dry dock. The Guided-missile destroyer USS Carney is now in Europe (they were unclear about where) supporting NATO Ballistic Missile Defense (unclear about how.) Maritime Counter Measures Group 2 left the port of Catania, Italy. No idea where the Nimitz is; it’s being coy, but I think that’s wise.
According to Turkish Navy Net — reliable and always has been for:
Claire,
Looks like “The High Seas Fleet” to me.
Regards,
Jim
This is not much new. That is, “nothing new” would be too strong, but not by much. The Soviet Union has been supporting Assad all along, and not with any particular stealth. The most robust opposition to this military support against US “allies” seems to have come from the British underwriter of a ship carrying weapons.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/news/world/russian-ships-carrying-arms-en-route-to-syrian-port/article7502096/
It is terrible, of course, but not really new. No doubt the media’s threshold for reporting actual bad news for His Excellency Colonel Obama must have the effect of building up pressure that makes things look earth-shattering when the dam finally bursts, but the work has been underway for some time.
Yes, Russia’s actions are provocative and destabilizing. Of course they are. Russia’s interests are met by destabilizing things wherever we are involved. They know that our appetite for uncertainty and bad news won’t get us through the average rainstorm.
In separate news, I hear that the Pentagon is supposedly a hotbed of anger and indignation at Russia’s actions. I would be surprised of that state actually extended much beyond the top three ranks, however, to include SECDEF.
Ok, ok, I concede! I didn’t know they had done it twice.
While I do think it’s perfectly plausible to make such a navigation error — jets are fast, there’s a lot to keep you busy up there, and the borders are not painted on the ground like on a map (Claire, what are you looking at when you say “That border’s obvious”?) — there’s no way they did it by accident twice.
I sized the image above so you could see the whole border area, but if you look at smaller parts of it on Google earth you’ll see the things I mentioned: nice, even Turkish roads, Turkish flags, Turkish artillery positions, and lots of barbed wire fences. Basically, if I was supposed to be in Syria but I looked down and saw something like this, I’d think, “Whoops.”
Super useful research. Thanks. Need to start a CB Wikipedia using these ingredients. :)
Where’s the shrubbery?
By the way, doesn’t “sputnik” mean something like groupie girlfriend in some contexts? (I saw one movie where it seemed to have that meaning.) Sounds appropriate to me.
Well, I learned something.
Claire,
I think Putin must have heard my saber rattling of the Sixth Fleet (anchor rattling? whatever). They launched the missiles from the Caspian Sea. They managed to miss Syria and hit Iran.
Talking about my girl.
Regards,
Jim