What Happened to Jindal?

 

In this kind of campaign, it’s little surprise that Gov. Bobby Jindal is not playing well nationally. I further understand that his in-state approval ratings has dropped; that can happen in politics when you try to jump from one job to another. But I’ve seen nothing in the national media to put any context to this poll that puts Jindal in 8th place (with a scant 3 percent of the vote), behind Carson (23 percent), Trump (19 perfect), Bush (10 percent), Rubio (9 percent), Fiorina (7 percent), Cruz (6 percent), and Huckabee (4 percent) in Louisiana.

In Florida, Trump leads either Bush or Rubio, but not the combined “favorite son” vote. Ted Cruz is behind Trump in Texas, but at least he’s in double digits. Even when he disappeared nationally, Scott Walker easily led Republicans in Wisconsin. Meanwhile the sitting and successful governor of Louisiana earns the support a rounding error from members of his own party in his own state.

That indicates something deeply wrong at home, not just a few errors and bad news cycles. But the media — even the “conservative” media — doesn’t cover these things in any meaningful way.

So does anyone know? What’s gone wrong for Bobby Jindal?

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  1. Brian McMenomy Inactive
    Brian McMenomy
    @BrianMcMenomy

    I’m a great admirer of Gov. Jindal, but he has allowed rhetorical looseness get the best of him.  While everyone is hacked off at Republican leadership, suggesting that we should throw the Republican party over the side won’t win a ton of votes in a Republican primary.  You can run against the Republican establishment (like Reagan did) without cutting of your own nose.

    • #1
  2. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    Brian McMenomy:I’m a great admirer of Gov. Jindal, but he has allowed rhetorical looseness get the best of him. While everyone is hacked off at Republican leadership, suggesting that we should throw the Republican party over the side won’t win a ton of votes in a Republican primary. You can run against the Republican establishment (like Reagan did) without cutting of your own nose.

    Oh, I definitely saw some of that too. And his little shot at Scott Walker’s Obamacare replacement plan (still the most serious plan on the table) as “Obamacare lite” was absolutely ridiculous.

    But 3% in his own state?

    • #2
  3. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    I don’t know.  But maybe you can explain Wisconsin for us.  We were driving back home through Wisconsin the other day, and the newspapers at the gas stations had big headlines as if World War II had ended, saying how Walker’s approval ratings were at their lowest ever.

    Do they think they have him on the run?

    • #3
  4. John Penfold Member
    John Penfold
    @IWalton

    Jindal didn’t do well as Republican answer to State of the Union in 08.  He’s not handsome, he’s just smarter, quicker more solid; the former matters not the latter, look at Trump.   He didn’t take after Trump until it was over, and being strident about the establishment strengthened Trump and Cruz.   Too bad, but he probably couldn’t get elected.  Democrats and people who lean Democrat are racist and when it comes to folks of Asian descent, they don’t even have to pretend not to be.

    • #4
  5. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    The Reticulator:I don’t know. But maybe you can explain Wisconsin for us. We were driving back home through Wisconsin the other day, and the newspapers at the gas stations had big headlines as if World War II had ended, saying how Walker’s approval ratings were at their lowest ever.

    Do they think they have him on the run?

    So… I’m not really any expert on Wisconsin, I just pay attention to the people who are, and I’m not even on the ground. But I’ll try.

    That last Marquette poll was pretty brutal for Republicans all around, and Walker was at 37%. Walker’s approval ratings have never been sky-high — usually hovering just below 50%. He’s simply very conservative for that bluish-purple state. This has not bothered him particularly. Unlike Kasich, he refused Medicaid expansion; unlike Kasich, he won by about 5 points rather than a landslide. And unlike Ohio, Wisconsin isn’t bleeding money it doesn’t have on Medicaid.

    But he always had less margin for error than Tommy Thompson. He’s held it together by a combination of factors, and the presidential run upset the apple cart on most of them — at least for now.

    He got elected in November, handed the legislature a very tough budget, and headed to Iowa. That’s inevitable if you’re going to make a serious run — but in the meanwhile it didn’t necessarily play well at home.

    (cont.)

    • #5
  6. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    Walker has always held Republicans together amazingly well, and the presidential run undercut that. Suddenly he’s out of state, taking positions on things he’s never talked about much before. He gave the legislature a budget cutting higher ed by millions, and rather than being all over the Wisconsin airwaves defending his policies — usually in non-ideological language — he’s been absent and talking to a different audience. I argued a couple weeks ago that the style Walker developed in Wisconsin didn’t serve him well in this primary — the flipside is that in trying to break through, he inevitably used rhetoric Wisconsinites aren’t used to hearing from him.

    So the 37% isn’t shocking. Whether it’s temporary — who knows?

    Given everything, dropping out early rather than dragging it into the new year was wise. The governor’s back with emphasis and no intention of being a lame duck — right into current policy debates and a legislative session. The legislature has a full agenda and isn’t acting spooked by the poll numbers — at least not yet.

    The day Walker withdrew, Supreme Court Justice Crooks passed away unexpectedly. Next week, Walker will (almost certainly) appoint conservative judge Rebecca Bradley to the court. She’ll face the voters next spring and will probably win. She won in Milwaukee County, after Walker appointed her to a position there. And the Wisconsin Supreme Court will have a 5-2 conservative majority.

    • #6
  7. Ray Kujawa Coolidge
    Ray Kujawa
    @RayKujawa

    How about that Christie guy!

    • #7
  8. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    But even that Marquette poll found that if Walker were still in the race he’d be leading Republicans in his own state.

    Jindal’s at 3%. It would just seem that to poll that badly in your own party in your home state something has to have gone badly wrong beyond the national campaign trail.

    I’m sure Pataki and Gilmore are barely registering, but they’re old news even at home. Jindal’s actually in office. I’m pretty sure even Lindsey Graham is doing better in SC — and he’s not South Carolina Republicans’ favorite senator.

    • #8
  9. Ray Kujawa Coolidge
    Ray Kujawa
    @RayKujawa

    Christie agreed not to campaign in Louisiana for Jindal not campaign in New Jersey. Let’s just say it was a Governors’ agreement. Or maybe Christie just decided to ‘give’ Louisiana to Jindal.

    Or did Christie just fail miserably in the LA poll so he didn’t show up in the results? Just too Yankee?

    • #9
  10. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    Ray Kujawa:Christie agreed not to campaign in Louisiana for Jindal not campaign in New Jersey. Let’s just say it was a Governors’ agreement. Or maybe Christie just decided to ‘give’ Louisiana to Jindal.

    Or did Christie just fail miserably in the LA poll so he didn’t show up in the results? Just too Yankee?

    Oh, I only listed the people ahead of Jindal. If you follow the link Kasich is at 3% and Christie is at 2%.

    But Rand Paul is at 0%, and that actually is rather interesting.

    • #10
  11. Baker Inactive
    Baker
    @Baker

    My wife and all her family are from or live in Louisiana. One of my best friend’s is a Rand Paul-esque conservative attorney in New Orleans. None of them can stand the guy.

    A lot of talk. Not much walk. Raiding rainy day funds continuously to fund an overspending government is not a way to win over Republicans or conservatives.

    “The state budget in 2004 was $16.5 billion, and now it has grown to $25 billion with no perceptible improvement in public services.” 

    http://www.theneworleansadvocate.com/news/13401139-171/james-gill-here-is-why

    • #11
  12. V the K Member
    V the K
    @VtheK

    Leigh:

     Unlike Kasich, he refused Medicaid expansion; unlike Kasich, he won by about 5 points rather than a landslide. And unlike Ohio, Wisconsin isn’t bleeding money it doesn’t have on Medicaid.

    It helped that Kasich’s opponent was caught en flagrante with a woman not-his-wife at 3AM in a parked car.

    • #12
  13. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    Baker:“The state budget in 2004 was $16.5 billion, and now it has grown to $25 billion with no perceptible improvement in public services.”

    “A new report released by the libertarian Cato Institute finds that among the eight governors who are GOP candidates for president, only Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana has cut spending in his state.” — breitbart.com, August 11, 2015

    (But the others are worse?)

    Jindal-spending

    • #13
  14. Terry Mott Member
    Terry Mott
    @TerryMott

    John Penfold:Jindal didn’t do well as Republican answer to State of the Union in 08. He’s not handsome, he’s just smarter, quicker more solid; the former matters not the latter, look at Trump. He didn’t take after Trump until it was over, and being strident about the establishment strengthened Trump and Cruz. Too bad, but he probably couldn’t get elected. Democrats and people who lean Democrat are racist and when it comes to folks of Asian descent, they don’t even have to pretend not to be.

    Lots of insight by John, here.

    I understand Jindal’s appeal as a policy wonk.  For President, people will usually vote for a warrior over a wonk, especially in uncertain times.  The particular “war” in question may vary — a Democrat may favor Sanders because he’s a class warrior, for example — but human nature doesn’t, much.

    • #14
  15. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    Jindal seems politically smart and it seems he is playing a slow and steady game.  As in, he’s building his brand for VP or for a spot as Rob’s next guy because there’s not a direct path for him right now.

    • #15
  16. Lazy_Millennial Inactive
    Lazy_Millennial
    @LazyMillennial

    The impression I get is that Jindal’s actually governed as a tough conservative in Louisiana, to the point of cutting medicaid spending.  I’ve gotta think some of that 3% rating is fatigue with a guy who’s been savaged by the home-state media for  two terms, aka “the grass is always greener” effect.  Especially since he’s running for President now, and taking lots of stances on national issues instead of state issues.  For what it’s worse, he’s been spending lots of time in Iowa, and is up to 6% there.  Not awesome, but at least a little bump from effort.

    • #16
  17. Baker Inactive
    Baker
    @Baker

    Maybe this will be more illuminating…

    It’s the plugging of holes with short-term fixes to keep a superficial record as “cutting spending” that is so bad. Raiding reserve funds and using tax gimmicks to keep his record clean but making it harder for the next governor.

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/bobby-jindal-campaigning-114948

    • #17
  18. Fricosis Guy Listener
    Fricosis Guy
    @FricosisGuy

    I was very impressed with Jindal on the Ace of Spades podcast. Just not the same guy who flopped on his State of the Union response.

    Also, his willingness to stick it out with a bare-bones campaign will sell well. Especially how he opposed it to the Walker and Perry campaigns, which he claimed were suffocated by the consultant class. Nice two-fer there: I’m truly thrifty and not controlled by the establishment.

    Wouldn’t be surprised if he ends up as the top governor in Iowa.

    • #18
  19. The Cloaked Gaijin Member
    The Cloaked Gaijin
    @TheCloakedGaijin

    The Cloaked Gaijin:

    Baker:“The state budget in 2004 was $16.5 billion, and now it has grown to $25 billion with no perceptible improvement in public services.”

    “A new report released by the libertarian Cato Institute finds that among the eight governors who are GOP candidates for president, only Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana has cut spending in his state.” — breitbart.com, August 11, 2015

    (But the others are worse?)

    Jindal-spending

    5-26-15sfp

    • #19
  20. Gary Robbins Member
    Gary Robbins
    @GaryRobbins

    I like Bobby Jindal a lot.  And I note that he was tied for 5th today in the WSJ/NBC poll after Trump, Carson, Fiorina and Bush.  I wish that he had run in 2012.  I hope that he becomes the HHS Secretary, and continues to make a contribution to the nation.

    • #20
  21. Leigh Inactive
    Leigh
    @Leigh

    Baker:Maybe this will be more illuminating…

    http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2015/02/bobby-jindal-campaigning-114948

    Thanks, that makes sense and is helpful.

    But national coverage of Walker has added an extra layer of cynicism to my mistrust of national mainstream reporting on state issues. So…

    How credible — and conservative — are those Louisiana Republicans attacking Jindal? Politico quotes two “nonpartisans” — what’s “nonpartisan” mean in Louisiana? Also, what’s this about:

    a state budget in which much funding—such as for K-12 schools and additional pay for firefighters and police—is protected constitutionally and thus invulnerable to drastic cuts. 

    Is the state constitution the real problem? Evidently Jindal really has cut quite a bit, and doesn’t have unlimited power to keep cutting even if the legislature goes along.  So what do conservatives think Jindal has left undone that should have been done? Are there proposed reforms he’s neglected, or bad ideas he’s promoted instead?

    Politico doesn’t say. From their perspective, obviously they think he should have raised taxes and found at least some Republicans who agreed. (Though I’d agree from what little I know of the situation that renewing an expiring tax isn’t the same thing as raising taxes, and that Jindal’s position sounds like posturing.)

    • #21
  22. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    The Cloaked Gaijin:

    Baker:“The state budget in 2004 was $16.5 billion, and now it has grown to $25 billion with no perceptible improvement in public services.”

    “A new report released by the libertarian Cato Institute finds that among the eight governors who are GOP candidates for president, only Gov. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana has cut spending in his state.” — breitbart.com, August 11, 2015

    (But the others are worse?)

    Jindal-spending

    So, this is a chart of spending from the general fund. It’s not a chart of state spending. Look at the most recent budget (there’ll be a new one soon) and you’ll see a line saying “Total State General Fund Expenditures:- $8,757,751,385” on page 13. Go down to page 19 and you’ll see “Discretionary and Non-Discretionary Funding by Department”. This is totaled at the bottom: these numbers are, in order, discretionary, non-discretionary, and total. “Total State $18,464,495,688 $10,683,393,692 $29,147,889,380”.  You will note that they are all larger than the general fund expenditures; general fund expenditures are primarily a matter of classification, rather than of practical budget cuts or increases.

    The short answer is that you should never, ever, ever, trust content from CATO on an issue that you are not very deeply versed in. Their aims may be noble, but they’re not keen to be noble in their means.

    Baker:My wife and all her family are from or live in Louisiana. One of my best friend’s is a Rand Paul-esque conservative attorney in New Orleans. None of them can stand the guy.

    A lot of talk. Not much walk. Raiding rainy day funds continuously to fund an overspending government is not a way to win over Republicans or conservatives.

    “The state budget in 2004 was $16.5 billion, and now it has grown to $25 billion with no perceptible improvement in public services.” 

    http://www.theneworleansadvocate.com/news/13401139-171/james-gill-here-is-why

    I think the numbers are sound here and help to cast the CATO claim in the proper light, although the text is pretty unfair to Jindal; Jindal has managed some genuinely impressive conservative reforms.

    • #22
  23. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    Leigh: How credible — and conservative — are those Louisiana Republicans attacking Jindal?

    One thing that is helpful to remember is that Jindal won’t be governor when Iowa hits and Louisiana is currently in the endgame to elect his replacement. Worse still, Louisiana has a quasi jungle primary that makes it possible that we’ll have two Republicans in a runoff afterwards. This means that it’s inevitable that you’ll get a lot of criticism of Jindal about now; the party is at its most keenly split.

    Leigh: What’s gone wrong for Bobby Jindal?

    My sense is that it’s the same thing that went wrong for Perry. They paid consultants who told them that they should be bomb throwing populists if they wanted to do well this cycle. Not being that may be a problem, but pretending to be that when you’re not appears to have been fatal for both Perry and Jindal. Flirting with pretending to be seems to have been at the base of a lot of Walker’s problems; he generally avoided it, but immigration was a much bigger struggle than it had to be.

    • #23
  24. SParker Member
    SParker
    @SParker

    James Of England: My sense is that it’s the same thing that went wrong for Perry. They paid consultants who told them that they should be bomb throwing populists if they wanted to do well this cycle.

    On Perry, I disagree.  He tried the bomb throwing cowboy (and I guess after the 12th Lone Star they will do that) in 2012.  He went for the sober, sane, sensible “I can too find my butt with both hands” this time, and I thought it was a remarkable performance.  Still the best speeches of the season.  If he got that off a consultant, it’s hard to fault the purchase.  Unfortunately this would have been the cycle to suggest we pants Ben Bernanke and leave him in the Applebee’s parking lot in North Platte, Nebraska (as all right-thinking Americans would surely agree).  He got wrong-footed by history.  Left to say things like “Hey, I’m mad as hell too” after featuring level-headed determination the previous 3 years.

    And I’m left wandering the prairie shouting “Rick, Rick, come back, Rick.”  Sad.  In the Ross Perot since of the word.

    Oh, and I’d say the Jindal problem is a little too much Barney Fife when he gets worked up about something.

    • #24
  25. James Of England Inactive
    James Of England
    @JamesOfEngland

    SParker:

    James Of England: My sense is that it’s the same thing that went wrong for Perry. They paid consultants who told them that they should be bomb throwing populists if they wanted to do well this cycle.

    On Perry, I disagree. He tried the bomb throwing cowboy (and I guess after the 12th Lone Star they will do that) in 2012. He went for the sober, sane, sensible “I can too find my butt with both hands” this time, and I thought it was a remarkable performance. Still the best speeches of the season. If he got that off a consultant, it’s hard to fault the purchase. Unfortunately this would have been the cycle to suggest we pants Ben Bernanke and leave him in the Applebee’s parking lot in North Platte, Nebraska (as all right-thinking Americans would surely agree). He got wrong-footed by history. Left to say things like “Hey, I’m mad as hell too” after featuring level-headed determination the previous 3 years.

    And I’m left wandering the prairie shouting “Rick, Rick, come back, Rick.” Sad. In the Ross Perot since of the word.

    Oh, and I’d say the Jindal problem is a little too much Barney Fife when he gets worked up about something.

    As governor, Perry did great things with gun rights, abortion, jobs, and all sorts of other things, but spending went up. Perry’s big deviation from conservative orthodoxy was his implacable opposition to the wall, which led to the current situation in which Texas went from being less likely to be the site of a border crossing to being dramatically more so, with the Rio Grande Valley region alone sometimes making up an absolute majority of crossings.

    As 2012 candidate, Perry ran on the things he’d done well on, didn’t talk about spending much, and took his lumps on amnesty and the wall (Romney, you will remember “didn’t have a heart”).

    As 2016 candidate Perry ran on two issues, building a fence and cutting spending. There wasn’t a lot of nuance and I’m not aware of his ever going into detail one what led to the change. I don’t know if he had a change of heart, but it sure looked like a change of advice.

    • #25
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