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Congratulations on Your New Job!
So, it’s Wednesday, November 9, 2016.
Perhaps you slept in, after staying up late to watch the results of the elections. The results are okay. They suggest shy grounds for hope among those of us who dearly love our country and pray it will retain those qualities that cause us to love it — or hope, at least, that it will continue to exist, because as you’ve probably noticed, things are getting awfully hairy out there, and we’re all kind of wondering.
The phone rings. You answer groggily, but you pull yourself together fast when you realize, to your surprise, that the voice on the other end of the phone is the president-elect’s. For a second, you’re baffled — is this a hoax? Why me? — but no, the voice quickly persuades you that it’s not a joke at all: He (or she) has been reading you on Ricochet, likes the cut of your jib, and feels you couldn’t possibly make a worse hash of our foreign policy than the last few we’ve had, so why not?
You accept. What else can you do. Your country needs you. (Don’t look at me that way. Somebody has do it.)
You’re now the United States Secretary of State.
So, Mr. or Madame Secretary, what will your first 100 days on the job look like? If it’s this bad today, I reckon it’ll be a lot worse by then. How do you plan to sort out this infernal mess?
Published in Foreign Policy, General, History, Military
Don’t take the bait. Don’t use Drudge to make policy.
That’s the understatement of the decade.
Policy recommendations to POTUS:
– The trouble with taking Syria is then you’ve got Syria. Russia is now in the s***, make it s*** more.
– Build the alliance among SA, Jordan, Egypt, the Gulf States, and Israel. Tell Turkey to get onside or we’ll start overtly supporting the Kurds. Ditto Iraq. Give Bibi all the intelligence he needs to take out the Iranian nuke program.
– Let the Sunni and Shia bleed each other, not us.
– Get heavy weapons to the Ukrainians, covertly but let it leak. (Far less danger of them ending up in terrorist hands than in Syria.) Make Ukraine s*** more for Putin. Armor busting weapons to the Baltics and Poles, overtly.
– Push back on China’s naval expansion, build a more robust near-neighbor alliance, but turn a blind eye to their ambitions in Siberia.
It would seem that way, but this has yet to be determined. I think it is very likely that they will be able to crush the FSA. I don’t know if they will actually be able to defeat ISIS, or if they even care about that. I think the Russians could do it if they put their minds to it, but it would probably take a substantial commitment of troops. Furthermore unlike the FSA ISIS exists in two countries which means any move to destroy them would need to occur simultaneously in both Iraq and Syria. Iraq seems to be coordinating intelligence with Iran, Assad, and Russia, but I have not seen them make moves to allowing the Russians in (yet). I think that will be the clear indication if Russia is serious about ISIS. I don’t think they are mind you. I think this is all about Assad, their naval base, and gaining leverage on America.
Would anyone like to point me to a part of the world where we’ve been doing a good job lately?
Are you suggesting we’ve been taking a MORE active role in the world recently compared to before?
I would submit that things are turning to [redacted] precisely because of our passive role the last 6-plus years.
Well, we took an active role ousting Gaddafi in Libya. Look how well that turned out!
Iraq was and is a disaster. It would have been better off if Saddam still ran things there. America got into a war it was never fully committed to winning and followed that up by deciding to nation build. After a decade, a trillion dollars and thousands of dead Americans, we were still in a position where it was going to take another decade, another trillion, and more lives before we could even hope to see stability there. The political will would never have lasted.
Oust Saddam and figure the rest out later did not make for a wise strategy. For all the terrible foreign policy decisions the Obama administration made, it’s worth taking a look back and seeing where Bush screwed up as well.
I’d have to be President to do what needs to be done.
Eric Hines
No one should be skeptical about Claire Berlinski as the leader of the free world. There’s Joan of Arc. And Winston Churchill was a journalist.
If the Nation of Ricochet could make this happen, all would be well.
Make a grand gesture, even something meaningful on whatever foreign policy issue or promise was featured in the campaign. Then call in the professionals and begin trying to figure out which ones are empty headed liberals and which ones can be relied on. God knows what will have happened over the last 8 years. Reduce embassies by half, by getting rid of all the other agencies that have set up shop and eliminate anyone appointed by Obama. Pull in some of the pre Obama foreign policy establishment as an advisory group and public outreach, to balance all the campaign bag handlers that will be stuffed around as DAS’s and in the NSC that will have believed all the talking points they ran on but won’t have a clue what to do about them.
Golda Meir, Wisconsin school teacher, didn’t do too badly, either.
Eric Hines
Let me get back to you later once I’ve figured something out. I’ll send an email. It’ll come from a private server I’ve set up. That’s ok, right?
Bob,
When the Russians, Iranians, and Assad start the wholesale murder, the Middle East will soon forget about the past. When the trio start threatening their neighbors (already has started) they will be screams for our return to the region.
All whining over spilled milk. Since the left is incapable of actually doing anything either in domestic or foreign policy they specialize in whining over spilled milk. If you took that away from them they’d have nothing left.
Regards,
Jim
I’m down with that.
Eric Hines
Immediately act to abolish the Department of State and move all critical functions to some competent agency, like the post office. Any essential activities on foreign soil we can hire the Canadians to cover for us. All embassies remain sovereign territory, but are converted to shopping malls with Apple, Google and Microsoft Stores, McDonalds, FedEx and whoever else bids well. The Marine contingent that guards it will get a 50% discount on all merchandise. CIA agents can work at the genius bar as a cover.
Or
Keep it as is, but reduce all communication to two communiques:
“We knew about this. No Comment”
and
“We did not know about this. No Comment”
No doubts at all? Don’t know how you come by that conviction. Assad is the reason ISIS draws so many recruits. Also, Sunnis all fear the Shias and their burgeoning presence – they are going to take it to the pro-Assad forces. Saudi Arabia will pay double and triple what they pay now to get individual jihadis to go fight with the Sunni resistance (ISIS included).
1) Get the Keystone pipeline started.
2) Drill, baby, drill.
3) Remove the strictures on exporting petroleum.
4) Get Vladimir on the blower: “That’s a cute little economy you’ve got there. Be a pity if something was to … happen to it.
We can stop the talent search, you have the job. When can you start?
Manfred,
The Russian air force and the Iranian ground forces will slaughter ISIS as needed. There will be no rules of engagement nonsense. This is Assad’s country. I’m sure he still has a few tricks up his sleave. He has poison gassed his own people. Surely he and his gang will have a field day.
We have tied both of own hands behind our backs and hopped on one foot. Then we claim that it can’t be done. It will be done and in the worst possible way.
Regards,
Jim
There is no alternative!
Why didn’t it work in Afghanistan for the Russians then? I think you are taking the counsel of your worst fears here. You think the Sunnis are not going to redouble their efforts? This might be Afghanistan all over again.
The Russians tried chasing the Afghans up into the mountain strongholds themselves. The Russians will sit back and let the Iranian Jihadist better trained batter equipped army murder the other Jihadist army. The Russians will have a field day in the turkey shoot from the air. Meanwhile, Assad will be there like a spider.
What’s going to fail. Russia, Iran, and Assad will take lots of casualties and will be merciless. They won’t worry about the civilian collateral damage either. Unless Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Israel, and Egypt enter the war there will be one quick bloodbath and then Assad will be enthroned like General Francisco Franco. Oh, and by the way, is he still dead?
Regards,
Jim
I think it’s a little premature to speculate what will be the pressing issues 13 months from now – the Chinese economy could implode, Cuba, Venezuela and Puerto Rico could implode, the “refugees” in Western Europe could implode – a lot of things could implode, explode or go haywire between now and then. I think the new President has to do more than the Sec/State – s/he should call Putin and say Obama was a complete outlier on foreign policy issues and a bipartisan consensus is back on track. If you try to force your will on us the way you did Obama the response will be very different – and by the way, your weapons still can’t hold a candle to ours, if you think your air defense system can deter us in Syria you are mistaken, don’t try it. Same with Xi, maybe start the new administration by seizing the islands built in Philippine waters, turn them over to the Filipinos and move our troops from Okinawa there.
I think you are analyzing hysterically. “Meanwhile, Assad will be there like a spider?” What the blazes does that mean? “The Russians will sit back and let the Iranian Jihadist better trained batter equipped army murder the other Jihadist army.” Well the ‘better trained-better equipped’ Iranian Jihadists have been losing the last year, Right? Otherwise the Russians wouldn’t be there. Calm down for Pete’s sake.
1. Take all my communications off the official net. I go down to Staples with the 6th grader who lives next door and he helps be buy a PC with email software on it.
2. I start a foundation whose purpose is to increase happiness in the world.
3. I hire somebody from Jimmy Carter’s foundation to tour through North Africa, the Middle East and Southeast Asia letting the governments there know that I am not going to be an arrogant Secretary of State. I want input from all the disparate cultures represented and they should all feel free to contact me with their concerns. But there is just one proviso. I don’t want anybody spreading hate in the world, so before contacting me with their concerns, they should make sure I know they want to promote happiness in the world. The more happiness the better.
4. I can’t think of anything else.
Inform Mr. Putin that if he wants Syria to be a Russian puppet, the US will treat it accordingly; Mr. Putin’s administration will be held accountable for all human rights abuses and war crimes committed by the Assad regime or its Russian approved successors.
Other than that, if they want to bomb the [CoC] out of ISIS, who am I to stop them?
I’m going to take a step back and re-set first principles.
First among these is that America takes the initiative. In foreign policy, if you’re reacting, you’re going to be forced to choose between bad options. Russians in Syria, new islands in the South China Sea, peace treaties with narco-communists are all of a piece: they are symptoms of our enemies taking initiative to create faits-accompli.
Second is to identify a priority of effort and ruthlessly stick to it. The degradation that has gone on over the last 25 years, really, has been significant on just about every front. South America is in a shambles, but it just isn’t as important as either Eastern Europe or East Asia (middle east is a near third).
Third, establish decision criteria, and make those clear to the world. Contra the new mantra of the Donald, foreign policy works much better when the world knows how the hyper-power is going to act. If it’s logical, the world WILL fall in line, at least for the most part.
Fourth, start building back strategic options. Some of the suggestions to this point fit neatly in this bucket: increasing domestic oil production, rebuilding the Navy and rebuilding true alliances.
Not easy, but it’s doable.
Manfred,
It is you that are hysterical. You believe that the phony war in Iraq is something more than just Obama deception. When the real war begins so will the slaughter. Let’s take a look at some of your statements. You don’t understand my comment “Assad will be there like a spider.” He and his father have been merciless tyrants in Syria for forty-five years. Do you think that’s just an accident?! He is still in power after all that has happened. This would only be possible because he is willing to use force without any mercy. With Iranian troops helping him and Russian aircraft and weapons do you think he’s going anywhere. Its his country!!!
You don’t understand my comment about the better trained Jihadists either. This isn’t going to be a client army. This is going to be a full Iranian invasion. Iran is a Jihadist State. It is their state army that will be the better trained better equipped Jihadists. They will move into Syria like Putin moving into Ukraine looking for weakness.
I think we are on the verge of full scale war and there is nothing hysterical about my statement whatsoever. In fact I have never felt so coolly detached about an analysis.
Regards,
Jim
As of this minute Tom Cotton would be my first choice for president. If you have five minutes, you wouldn’t be wasting it in listening to this speech he gave to the Senate on Russia.