What Happened to Scott Walker?

 

shutterstock_297134234If you look back to the spring and early summer (a period before, it should be noted, he was even an officially declared candidate), there was a fair bit of talk about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker as the “frontrunner” for the Republican presidential nomination. Fast forward to September, and we’ve got a new CNN poll that shows Walker as little more than a rounding error. He’s actually trailing Rick Santorum, who’s yet to make it to a prime-time debate.

Writing at Bloomberg Politics, John McCormick paints a grim picture of the current state of the Walker campaign:

The signs of his precipitous fall were all too vivid Sunday afternoon inside Serena’s Coffee Café in Amana, Iowa, where about 40 stoic supporters showed up for his first retail campaign event in the state since Wednesday’s debate.

Gone were most of the network television cameras that had followed Walker much of the summer. Just one network was on hand, along with one reporter-photographer from a nearby station in Cedar Rapids. A second event at a Pizza Ranch in Vinton, Iowa, brought out another small crowd, along with one local TV camera.

Walker lingered at both events, shaking virtually every hand. He’d woken Sunday morning to news that he’d fallen below 1 percent in the most recent national CNN poll, a new all-time low for his candidacy that could further rattle donors.

You can play out what happens next as you like. Maybe Walker is Rudy Giuliani, learning the hard way that being an early frontrunner only gives you more time to be knocked off your pedestal. Or maybe he’s John McCain, and being on the cusp of annihilation will inject a newfound sense of urgency into his campaign. In a race with dynamics this strange, I wouldn’t be willing to put down money on either proposition.

What I’m genuinely curious about is what exactly has happened to the governor over the past several months. There has been plenty of media speculation on the matter (including by me), but we’re all making, at best, educated guesses.

That’s why I’d like to turn the matter over to Ricochet members, who also seem to have cooled to the idea of Walker as the GOP nominee, albeit not at the same rate as the broader primary electorate. In our April poll, 68 percent of you identified Walker as either your first or second choice for the nomination, easily the largest number for any candidate. By the time we wrapped up the August polling, that number had dropped to 35 percent, with Walker trailing Carly Fiorina and tied with Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio on the cumulative first choice-second choice total. (Walker tied Fiorina in the first choice poll, led Cruz by three points, and bested Rubio by five).

So here’s my question: for those of you who have gotten off the Walker bandwagon, what caused your defection? And are there circumstances under which you might be tempted to get back on? If so, what are they?

 

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  1. KiminWI Member
    KiminWI
    @KiminWI

    I still support Scott Walker, though I am just as content to support him as governor.

    I still believe he would serve this country  well as president, but he doesn’t appear to be as compelling as a candidate as he needs to be to clear that bar. I would say the same of my other favorite candidate, Rick Perry. In Gov. Walker’s case the failing is just his steady but quieter nature. Since we can’t graft a Rubio veneer on him, or a Reagan timber to his speech, the candidate selection process will move on without him.

    • #1
  2. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    Troy Senik, Ed.: there was a fair bit of talk about Wisconsin Governor Scott Walker

    …by Scott Walker.

    I think that explains the “fall.”

    • #2
  3. The King Prawn Inactive
    The King Prawn
    @TheKingPrawn

    I’d wager someone will blame it on consultants. I don’t think they own it entirely, but there’s probably something to that. My best guess is at this level and specifically at this time we look more for vision, and that is one thing Walker doesn’t communicate as well as a Rubio or even Cruz. He can beat the drum on results, but the electorate isn’t there yet.

    • #3
  4. Matthew Gilley Inactive
    Matthew Gilley
    @MatthewGilley

    I didn’t climb off the bandwagon; I was distracted by the cotton candy machine and returned to discover that someone seemed to have cancelled the parade.

    • #4
  5. Guruforhire Inactive
    Guruforhire
    @Guruforhire

    He isn’t this months non-trump flavor of the month.

    Consider that nobody here is talking about the great and awesome things scott walker has planned for the country.

    Consider this:, Trump paraphrasing is more important than anything scott walker has to say to ricochet.

    If ricochet doesn’t care, who will?

    • #5
  6. iWe Coolidge
    iWe
    @iWe

    Walker would make a fine President. I like his agenda.

    I just don’t see how he gets elected in a field that includes candidates who are far more effective on camera.

    • #6
  7. CuriousKevmo Inactive
    CuriousKevmo
    @CuriousKevmo

    I was, and am, very hopeful about his candidacy, but in watching the first debate, he just left me flat.  It was almost as if they had already paid for 10 podiums and they need a stand in to take up the space.  I couldn’t figure out why he was there.

    When he speaks, I feel as though I’m reading a power point slide of conservative talking points.  I don’t feel any enthusiasm or conviction in his words.

    • #7
  8. BThompson Inactive
    BThompson
    @BThompson

    Pandering to Iowans with awful support of corn subsidies and firing a good staffer because in the past she tweeted against corn subsidies. That doesn’t look anything like leadership or principle.

    Also the incoherent flopping around in immigration, again pandering to a constituency, but in such transparent and inept way that I don’t have any confidence in his leadership or commitment to principle.

    His inability to handle gotcha questions has repeatedly caused problems as well. He hasn’t had any Tod Akin moments, but he hasn’t sounded smart or like a leader in those moments either.

    Add that to a shallow understanding of the most important part of a presidents job, foreign policy, and you have a guy not ready for prime time. His success in Wisconsin now seems to be more the luck of having a very solid, very conservative majority in the state legislature who actually drove the agenda and were the true heroes of the conservative victories there.

    • #8
  9. RyanFalcone Member
    RyanFalcone
    @RyanFalcone

    Walker, like Perry and Jindal is superb. Unfortunately, they are David’s in an era where Saul is what we want. The next “debate” should have a swimsuit competition.  Maybe this year’s American Ninja winner should get an auto berth on stage for the next debate. I’m waiting for one of the marginal candidates to come out of the closet.

    • #9
  10. BThompson Inactive
    BThompson
    @BThompson

    He’s not falling because of his debate performances. He’s falling because his campaign is an amateurish clown show.

    • #10
  11. Vance Richards Inactive
    Vance Richards
    @VanceRichards

    He’s boring. The guy even make Harleys look dorky (what’s his riding club again . . . “Hell’s CPAs”?)

    I think he needs to pick a fight. That worked well for him as governor. Make some strong statements that will tick off the right people (union bosses, the President, etc.) and hope the media finds that more newsworthy than Fiorina’s face or Trump’s hair.

    • #11
  12. Dan Hanson Thatcher
    Dan Hanson
    @DanHanson

    On the shallow appearance side,  Walker looks to be slightly walleyed on camera- He looks like his eyes are unfocused or that he’s staring into the middle distance while talking to the camera.

    Or as Quint said in Jaws:

    he’s got… lifeless eyes, black eyes, like a doll’s eye.

    This kind of stuff shouldn’t matter,  but it does.   It makes him look less intelligent or less connected with the viewer.  If you are a low-information voter and all you know of him is what you see in the debate,  I think it could skew your perception.  I don’t think TV is a good medium for him.

    • #12
  13. Dad of Four Inactive
    Dad of Four
    @DadofFour

    For myself,  I was not an early advocate for anyone; and I was highly impressed by Scott’s record in Wisconsin.  That said, he just has not stood out on the presidential trail.  I think he is a good person and a highly principled politician; which is often an oxymoron :-)

    However, he does not strike me as the person who can and will change the direction of our presidency for the better.  Given that, I am looking to other candidates.

    • #13
  14. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    Vance Richards: I think he needs to pick a fight. That worked well for him as governor.

    Well, he probably needs someone to pick a fight with him.  As governor he looked like a regular reasonable guy who was trying to get some basic stuff done and his opponents looked like unreasonable basket cases.

    Boring and unmovable worked for him there.

    • #14
  15. Spin Inactive
    Spin
    @Spin

    iWe:Walker would make a fine President. I like his agenda.

    I just don’t see how he gets elected in a field that includes candidates who are far more effective on camera.

    Pretty much my position.  He’d be a fine conservative President.  He just doesn’t look nor sound the part of late.  And we need to nominate someone who will win.  I just don’t think Walker can win.

    To be quite frank, I don’t really know what to make of the Presidential election cycle so far.  All bets are off.

    • #15
  16. Spin Inactive
    Spin
    @Spin

    Dan Hanson: On the shallow appearance side,  Walker looks to be slightly walleyed on camera- He looks like his eyes are unfocused or that he’s staring into the middle distance while talking to the camera.

    That’s a big deal.  He’s always looked weird.  And sadly, we aren’t going to elect a guy who looks weird.

    • #16
  17. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    iWe:Walker would make a fine President. I like his agenda.

    I just don’t see how he gets elected in a field that includes candidates who are far more effective on camera.

    THIS>

    iWe nails it. I think his policies and fight against entrenched unions are necessary for the US. He has my respect and admiration how he beat them.

    Unfortunately, we live in a televised world. For someone his age, he physically looks awkward. I’m the farthest thing from a fashion guru, believe me, but Walker looks like a Sears catalog circa 1983.

    His physical issues are not his biggest problem. He is a decent man (not that other candidates aren’t). But his presentation, speeches, debates and general affect are all locked into his ‘niceness’. If Walker was a word, his word would be ‘fine’. As in, how are you? ‘I’m fine.’ That has zero impact on people.

    He is a pleasant family man who took the fight to the Unions and won. Kudos. Unfortunately, we need a leader who isn’t just fine and pleasant… but someone who will embolden an entire country, a leader who doesn’t care about niceness.

    In these times, we need a *Ms. General Patton.

    • #17
  18. Stad Coolidge
    Stad
    @Stad

    Troy Senik, Ed.: So here’s my question: for those of you who have gotten off the Walker bandwagon, what caused your defection?

    I thought he would hit the ground running once he formally got into the race.  Instead, he just hit the ground . . .

    • #18
  19. Aaron Miller Inactive
    Aaron Miller
    @AaronMiller

    Walker began as the favorite of pundits, not of primary voters. Many Republican voters — the typical sort who do not devour politics every day and debate in communities like Ricochet — had barely heard of him months ago.

    Then those pundits who like him so much abandoned him by focusing their articles on Trump. Even bad attention is still attention. Walker needed better name recognition, and his fans in the media denied him that by joining the celebrity circus.

    • #19
  20. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    Spin: I don’t really know what to make of the Presidential election cycle so far.

    Rubio wins.  Hope that helps.

    • #20
  21. livingthehighlife Inactive
    livingthehighlife
    @livingthehighlife

    Walker has a day job, and I don’t think he was expecting this tough a campaign fight this early.

    I’m still a fan, though.  I’d vote for him in a heartbeat.

    What does it say about our campaign process that two of the most accomplished governors are being dismissed by the voters this early?  Nothing good, in my opinion.

    • #21
  22. Tom Meyer, Ed. Member
    Tom Meyer, Ed.
    @tommeyer

    I’ve been deeply frustrated that Walker’s been running so badly, but James’s wonderful piece on unions reminded me just how important Walker’s work has been.

    • #22
  23. Merina Smith Inactive
    Merina Smith
    @MerinaSmith

    I think most of us intuitively know that we need a very strong, principled, conservative and electable president this time around.  We were all impressed with Walker’s strength in the union fight in WI.  There he had vision and principles and stood his ground,  but he doesn’t come across as strong and knowledgeable about foreign policy especially, which is a big issue right now.  He’s somewhat namby pamby on social issues as well, which turns off socons, and he’s not particularly strong rhetorically on the Lets-make-America-great-again front, as Rubio is.  I think he’d make a good president, but maybe later.  He doesn’t seem to be the man-of-the-hour right now.  I’m thinking Rubio-Fiorina would be good.  I worry about her HP record, so wouldn’t put her first, but as VEEP, she could learn the ropes and maybe run for the big spot later.

    • #23
  24. BThompson Inactive
    BThompson
    @BThompson

    livingthehighlife:What does it say about our campaign process that two of the most accomplished governors are being dismissed by the voters this early? Nothing good, in my opinion.

    Our campaign process is whack, no doubt. But I don’t think Perry and Walker were actually in the top five of this field, so losing them, assuming Walker doesn’t come back, isn’t that big of a loss. I think the problems of these two stem from problems not directly related to the nomination process. Perry came into the 2012 race unprepared and made a very bad first impression. This I would chalk up to him not understanding that translating Texas appeal to national appeal is not as simple as showing up and saying, “I’m from Texas and I kick ass.” If this field were as weak as in 2012, Perry would have had a good shot at reintroducing himself. Unfortunately, he ran into a buzz saw when it came to the depth of the competition.

    Walker, like Perry in 2012, is similarly unprepared, but has the added problem that being unprepared in this field is immediately deadly. Also, Walker tried doing the opposite of Perry. Instead of bragging that he could run the US like he is Wisconsin, he’s tried to pander to special interests.

    I doubt Walker ever would have made it out of the fray with the nomination, but he should be doing better than he is.

    • #24
  25. tabula rasa Inactive
    tabula rasa
    @tabularasa

    He just never stood out among a group of other candidates who have:  Trump, Rubio, Florina, and Carson.  Rubio and Fiorina deserve the accolades.  Trump’s buffoonish ways take a lot of air out of the room.  Carson is a unique candidate with a background unlike any other (black, excellent neurosurgeon, great story)–not much not to like there, though I think Walker is the more qualified of the two (to be president–I’d still go to Ben for my near-needs).

    Much of it goes back to his laid-back approach.  He’s a tough guy, but he doesn’t come across that way.

    Kind of sad, but that’s the world he’s living in this time around.

    • #25
  26. Larry3435 Inactive
    Larry3435
    @Larry3435

    What happened to Scott Walker?  I haven’t the faintest idea.  But I have noticed one thing.  The two candidates who seemed (to me, at least) to talk the most about their “record” as governors were Walker and Perry.  Most of the other candidates touch on their past jobs quickly, but then move on to their plans for the future.  Jeb, for example, mentions something about how he invented school choice and lowered taxes a few hundred thousand times, but then moves on to whatever else he is saying while I’m snoring.  Apparently, just reading your resume out loud, over and over, is not the best hook for 2015 voters.

    • #26
  27. Manny Coolidge
    Manny
    @Manny

    I don’t think anyone knocked him off a pedestal.  I just don’t think he was ready for the national stage (same as Perry four years ago) and then when he wavered on a number of issues his one selling point that he was an elected official but not an establishment politician fell apart.  On top of it, he doesn’t have the dynamic personality of a Donald Trump to ride the rough waves.

    • #27
  28. Petty Boozswha Inactive
    Petty Boozswha
    @PettyBoozswha

    If he were a leader he would have owned the immigration issue the way he owned the public employee union issue – instead he pandered to big donors and squandered his birthright to Trump.

    • #28
  29. CuriousKevmo Inactive
    CuriousKevmo
    @CuriousKevmo

    RyanFalcone: The next “debate” should have a swimsuit competition.

    You can’t poke out your mind’s eye.

    • #29
  30. Solon JF Inactive
    Solon JF
    @Solon

    He was a little too sweaty on the debate stage.

    • #30
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