Promoted from the Ricochet Member Feed by Editors Created with Sketch. Update on the Ricochet GOP Primary — July Results

 

The Ricochet vote seems pretty well locked-up for the summer — Scott Walker still leads with a large margin — but I’ve included some new graphics that provide some interesting insights into where members go if their first choice falls through.

Let’s start with our standard tracking graph. Walker remains at the head of the field, with Perry and Fiorina following. I didn’t include Fiorina here (12.2%) because I wanted to maintain the structure of the graph tracking progress over recent months. If her support remains elevated in a month’s time then I’ll change up the list.July top four tracking

Among the Ricochetti, the first-choice results for July are as follows:

JUL 1st choice all

And the second-choice results are:

JUL 2nd choice all

Here’s how the field looks among those who selected the leader, Gov. Scott Walker, as their first-choice:

JUL 2nd choice among Walker 1st

I then decided to see how that second-preferred-candidate field looks for each first-choice candidate. Below, is a table that shows the top two vote-getters for 2nd choice for each candidate who scored well for first-choice. For example, the first line shows that — among those who picked Walker as their first choice — Fiorina was second-preferred candidate and Rubio was third.

JUL 2nd choice by 1st choice

As you can see, most people are either starting with Walker or ending up there. You can see Fiorina is hanging back there as an alternative in case the front of the field falls through.

There are 12 comments.

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  1. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    Thanks for the summary BK. I started to put such a summary together a couple of months back, but you beat me to the punch and did a much better job. I look forward to your wrap-up each month, so keep them coming!

    I continue to be surprised and pleased by Scott Walker’s dominant polling position among the Ricochetti.

    • #1
    • August 4, 2015, at 9:01 AM PDT
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  2. SPare Member

    One of the things that I find fascinating is just how out of order this is with the generally accepted ordering of the race in polling. Perhaps it’s mostly that we are a self-selecting, high information set.

    I think that it was in Geraghty’s Morning Jolt yesterday that there was a prediction that Perry, Jindal, Santorum and Fiorina would all be in the kids’ table debate. The interesting thing about that is that I’m actually more interested in them than I am in the so-called leading candidate debate. I also think that being #11 and in the small debate is actually better than being #10 and in the big one. If you can be the star of the kid’s table, that’s going to give a lot more bump than being an also-ran in teh big one: my bet is either Perry or Fiorina will get that.

    I have no interest whatsoever in hearing what Jeb! Trump! Huckabee, Carson or Paul have to say- they just don’t really add anything in my books. Kasich and Christie are OK, I guess, but I wouldn’t support either of them. Cruz is going to be interesting, but he’s about the equivalent of Jindal in my books: a really interesting guy who isn’t ready to compete for the presidency.

    • #2
    • August 4, 2015, at 9:54 AM PDT
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  3. Misthiocracy got drunk and Member
    Misthiocracy got drunk and Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    other_undecided_300

    • #3
    • August 4, 2015, at 10:03 AM PDT
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  4. Leigh Member

    SPare: One of the things that I find fascinating is just how out of order this is with the generally accepted ordering of the race in polling. Perhaps it’s mostly that we are a self-selecting, high information set.

    In the HotAir survey, Cruz is top, with Walker as the consensus choice. It’s the self-selection and the flavor of the reporting at the media site, too. (HotAir tends to be somewhat negative/ultra-cynical on Walker; I’m a little surprised he’s polling so strongly.)

    • #4
    • August 4, 2015, at 10:21 AM PDT
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  5. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Yes, it should not be misunderstood by anyone that this poll is representative of the GOP primary voter population. At best, we’re accurately representing the Ricochet membership. My hope is that we’re getting enough lurkers participating so that it doesn’t skew things.

    I forgot to mention that the sample size was 312, which yields a sampling error of 5.5%.

    • #5
    • August 4, 2015, at 10:54 AM PDT
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  6. BuckeyeSam Inactive

    Nice to see that Bush isn’t even in the conversation.

    Who, exactly, is supporting Bush?

    • #6
    • August 4, 2015, at 12:04 PM PDT
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  7. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    BuckeyeSam:Nice to see that Bush isn’t even in the conversation.

    Who, exactly, is supporting Bush?

    That would be the donors with money that’ll sustain his campaign.

    • #7
    • August 4, 2015, at 12:25 PM PDT
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  8. Goldwaterwoman Thatcher

    As I look at this Ricochet poll, it’s glaringly obvious why we can’t win a national election. Trump doesn’t even show up here. Why? He’s at the top of the new WSJ/NBC poll today. Carly Fiorina was my candidate originally, but the more I see her, the more I realize she comes off as an iceberg in front of the camera. Does she even know how to smile?

    • #8
    • August 4, 2015, at 1:38 PM PDT
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  9. tabula rasa Member
    tabula rasa Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Thanks Bereket.

    This proves once again that the Ricochetti are the most talented people on the Internet. Charts that are clear and make sense. What a concept.

    If Bill Buckley were still alive, he’d substitute the Ricochetti for that reference to the first 500? names in the Boston phone book.

    • #9
    • August 4, 2015, at 2:56 PM PDT
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  10. Jerry Giordano (Arizona Patrio… Member

    tabula rasa:Thanks Bereket.

    This proves once again that the Ricochetti are the most talented people on the Internet. Charts that are clear and make sense. What a concept.

    If Bill Buckley were still alive, he’d substitute the Ricochetti for that reference to the first 500? names in the Boston phone book.

    I suspect that a government run by 500 random Ricochetti would be the best government in the history of the world. Seriously.

    • #10
    • August 4, 2015, at 4:44 PM PDT
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  11. tabula rasa Member
    tabula rasa Joined in the first year of Ricochet Ricochet Charter Member

    Arizona Patriot:

    tabula rasa:Thanks Bereket.

    This proves once again that the Ricochetti are the most talented people on the Internet. Charts that are clear and make sense. What a concept.

    If Bill Buckley were still alive, he’d substitute the Ricochetti for that reference to the first 500? names in the Boston phone book.

    I suspect that a government run by 500 random Ricochetti would be the best government in the history of the world. Seriously.

    Because we’d take the oath of office, then do nothing except repeal stuff.

    • #11
    • August 4, 2015, at 5:11 PM PDT
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  12. RyanFalcone Member

    It seems to me that all the love for Bush is from Democrats trying to horn their way into the Republican nomination process. The article on Drudge making note of the large overlap in donors between Bush and Hillary seems to back this up.

    The more distant from Democrats you get (polls on sites very infrequently visited by Dems) the more scarce support for him becomes.

    Trump just scares me. I like what he says but voting for him in any poll seems too much like calling a chat-line fluzy my girlfriend.

    • #12
    • August 5, 2015, at 12:56 PM PDT
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