Betting On The GOP Nomination

 

I recently signed up for an account with PredictIt, a new site that’s replaced the long-defunct InTrade. While we’re tracking what the Ricochet members prefer and what the different pollsters around the country are researching I thought it would be interesting to get a unique perspective. This “poll” is interesting because it’s people putting their money where their mouth is.

With no further introduction, I present you the GOP nomination race according to the bettors. I’m willing to guess that this will be as close to the actual outcome as any poll out there.rnom16

There are 42 comments.

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  1. TG Thatcher
    TG
    @TG

    I don’t see Carly Fiorina!?!

    • #1
  2. DrewInWisconsin Member
    DrewInWisconsin
    @DrewInWisconsin

    TG:I don’t see Carly Fiorina!?!

    Yeah . . . she’s in my top 3!

    I’ll also note that in the poll on the sidebar, she’s in first place for second choice. :)

    • #2
  3. Randy Webster Member
    Randy Webster
    @RandyWebster

    TG:I don’t see Carly Fiorina!?!

    My thoughts exactly.

    • #3
  4. Franco Member
    Franco
    @Franco

    I definitely trust this poll much more as a predictor than calling people who actually answer their phone when strangers call.

    However we have to remember this is a poll of people who have enough money to bet on something like this.

    A subset of America.

    • #4
  5. PHCheese Inactive
    PHCheese
    @PHCheese

    I❤️ Carley. Don’t tell Mrs Cheese.

    • #5
  6. Franco Member
    Franco
    @Franco

    I don’t want to bet on this.

    But is there a place where I can bet that if Jeb Bush is nominated, he will lose the election to the Democrat?

    What’s the line?

    I’ll take any odds.

    I’ll bet my house.

    Wait. I lost my house after the last Bush.

    Never mind.

    (just kidding I didn’t lose my house…..almost though)

    • #6
  7. Ball Diamond Ball Inactive
    Ball Diamond Ball
    @BallDiamondBall

    Bereket Kelile: I present you the GOP nomination race according to the betters.

    Well, according to the bettors.  According to the betters, it’s Jeb! Jeb! Jeb! at 111%.

    • #7
  8. David Carroll Thatcher
    David Carroll
    @DavidCarroll

    In one of the Great Courses to which I have listened lately, the accuracy of voting by betting was discussed and explained. They call it the “wisdom of crowds.” I think the course was “Unexpected Ecnomics”. Interesting series of lectures. Anyway, it turns out that the wisdom of crowds who put skin in the game is amazingly more accurate that the collective wisdom of experts.

    [I received no compensation for my plug of the podcastr sponsor.]

    • #8
  9. Tom Meyer, Ed. Contributor
    Tom Meyer, Ed.
    @tommeyer

    I’m amazed Kasich is so high up.

    • #9
  10. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    So how does this work exactly?

    • #10
  11. Son of Spengler Contributor
    Son of Spengler
    @SonofSpengler

    Casey:So how does this work exactly?

    I’m not familiar with this particular site, but InTrade was a futures market. In a futures market, there is an agreement to exchange the purchase price for $1 at maturity if the condition is met.

    So for example, consider someone who buys a Jeb Yes contract. At the maturity date (say, the day after the GOP convention), if Jeb wins, the seller pays $1 minus the purchase price, or $0.53. If Jeb loses, the buyer pays $0.47 and gets nothing.

    In political futures, there are often problems around how the event is defined. For example, is the presidential election result to be measured the day after? What if there are hanging chads? Or should it be measured on inauguration day? In that case, what happens if the candidate drops dead after the election?

    • #11
  12. Mr. Dart Inactive
    Mr. Dart
    @MrDart

    TG:I don’t see Carly Fiorina!?!

    Her last trade was at 6 cents which puts her 16th.

    • #12
  13. Mr. Dart Inactive
    Mr. Dart
    @MrDart

    Franco:I don’t want to bet on this.

    But is there a place where I can bet that if Jeb Bush is nominated, he will lose the election to the Democrat?

    What’s the line?

    I’ll take any odds.

    I’ll bet my house.

    Wait. I lost my house after the last Bush.

    Never mind.

    (just kidding I didn’t lose my house…..almost though)

    On the Iowa Electronic Market you can buy a futures contract for Republican/ Democrat winner.  Current pricing is 59/41 favoring the Democrat.

    • #13
  14. Misthiocracy Member
    Misthiocracy
    @Misthiocracy

    Sadly, PredictIt does not allow users from the Great White North.

    Kinda makes me wonder who exactly is betting on the upcoming Canuckistani election.

    • #14
  15. Dorothea Inactive
    Dorothea
    @Dorothea

    Franco:I don’t want to bet on this.

    But is there a place where I can bet that if Jeb Bush is nominated, he will lose the election to the Democrat?

    What’s the line?

    I’ll take any odds.

    I’ll bet my house.

    Wait. I lost my house after the last Bush.

    Never mind.

    (just kidding I didn’t lose my house…..almost though)

    Franco, from what I read on Drudge recently (can’t find the link at the moment), Jeb B. has a pretty good shot at stealing Hillary’s voters, if they are the two going head to head. Sigh. Explains the squishiness of Jeb –he’s looking ahead.

    • #15
  16. DocJay Inactive
    DocJay
    @DocJay

    I want to throw up in my mouth. The GOP will lose this election if they stick with the puppet boy.

    • #16
  17. Son of Spengler Contributor
    Son of Spengler
    @SonofSpengler

    DocJay:I want to throw up in my mouth.The GOP will lose this election if they stick with the puppet boy.

    That’s the beauty of the futures markets. You can hedge your outcome to make lots of money if the GOP loses. That way, if the GOP wins, we all win. And if the GOP loses, you make lots of money to help defray the cost of ammo.

    • #17
  18. Mr. Dart Inactive
    Mr. Dart
    @MrDart

    Son of Spengler:

    DocJay:I want to throw up in my mouth.The GOP will lose this election if they stick with the puppet boy.

    That’s the beauty of the futures markets. You can hedge your outcome to make lots of money if the GOP loses. That way, if the GOP wins, we all win. And if the GOP loses, you make lots of money to help defray the cost of ammo.

    Yes, SoS, shorting Mitt futures in 2012 worked well for me.

    • #18
  19. DocJay Inactive
    DocJay
    @DocJay

    I can make a hundred bucks in 5 seconds doing a prostate exam. That’s far more honorable work than shorting the GOP but there’s an analogy dying to come out.

    • #19
  20. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile
    @BereketKelile

    Franco:I definitely trust this poll much more as a predictor than calling people who actually answer their phone when strangers call.

    However we have to remember this is a poll of people who have enough money to bet on something like this.

    A subset of America.

    It’s a minimum of $10 and a max of $850. This isn’t the high-rollers table.

    • #20
  21. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile
    @BereketKelile

    Son of Spengler:

    Casey:So how does this work exactly?

    I’m not familiar with this particular site, but InTrade was a futures market. In a futures market, there is an agreement to exchange the purchase price for $1 at maturity if the condition is met.

    So for example, consider someone who buys a Jeb Yes contract. At the maturity date (say, the day after the GOP convention), if Jeb wins, the seller pays $1 minus the purchase price, or $0.53. If Jeb loses, the buyer pays $0.47 and gets nothing.

    In political futures, there are often problems around how the event is defined. For example, is the presidential election result to be measured the day after? What if there are hanging chads? Or should it be measured on inauguration day? In that case, what happens if the candidate drops dead after the election?

    Exactly, thanks SoS. I think the only difference here is that if you lose your bet you just lose what you bet. They match all the Yes shares with corresponding No shares. People have criticized this approach when it comes to questions where you have multiple possible outcomes. We’ll see if that ends up being a flaw.

    • #21
  22. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile
    @BereketKelile

    Here’s the bottom end of that chart, after Ben Carson, although this is from today’s bets.

    rnom16pt2

    • #22
  23. Bereket Kelile Member
    Bereket Kelile
    @BereketKelile

    Tom Meyer, Ed.:I’m amazed Kasich is so high up.

    Rick Wilson said the same thing on twitter. My thinking is that Kasich’s strategy is to draft the Bush campaign and wait for him to crash or a better moment to breakout.

    • #23
  24. Douglas Inactive
    Douglas
    @Douglas

    Tom Meyer, Ed.:I’m amazed Kasich is so high up.

    I understand Bush dominating… the establishment wants him badly, and they foot the bills, but… who the hell is betting so hard on Kasich?

    • #24
  25. EThompson Inactive
    EThompson
    @EThompson

    Tom Meyer, Ed.:I’m amazed Kasich is so high up.

    He’s done a great job in Ohio and I’d love to see him running with Carly. All talent aside, the two have some additional important bona fides:

    Electoral votes for him and an extremely competent woman who would wipe the floor with HC in a debate.

    Marco Rubio is a second choice for me; great state legislative background working with Jeb, 29 electoral votes, invincible in his handling of the MSM, perfect on national security and provides an opportunity to win specific segments of Hispanic voters. He’s dropped to second on my list however because although I was willing to overlook his approach to immigration reform, his recent plan to double child tax credits and raise taxes on singles and childless couples has left me cold. (Paul Ryan agrees with me on this particular issue.)

    • #25
  26. SParker Member
    SParker
    @SParker

    H’mmm.  Why are bid/ask spreads  so wide on Bush and Carson (which is ginormous based on the last trade) and no one else?   Do they publish trade volumes?  Or is the answer to be found elsewhere?

    (Note to kids:  what portion of your college funds I haven’t yet drunk up, I’ve now placed on the highly undervalued Rick Perry.  Should he cross the line in 17th walking backwards, you’ll no doubt appreciate all the ironies involved in your moving to Texas for the $10K baccalaureate.  Go Aggies.)

    • #26
  27. LilyBart Inactive
    LilyBart
    @LilyBart

    People I WILL NOT vote for include:

    Jeb!, Rubio, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie and Trump.

    Don’t ask.  The answer is “no”.  The same ole, same ole is just taking us down the wrong path.  And Trump is, well, Trump – you can’t just look at what someone says now, during an election, but look at how they’ve acted in the past – so, no Trump either.

    Hey BTW, did you know that Jeb! got his undergraduate degree from UT in, get this, Latin American Studies!   Its true (and very funny).

    • #27
  28. Casey Inactive
    Casey
    @Casey

    LilyBart:People I WILL NOT vote for include:

    Jeb!, Rubio, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie and Trump.

    Don’t ask. The answer is “no”. The same ole, same ole is just taking us down the wrong path. And Trump is, well, Trump – you can’t just look at what someone says now, during an election, but look at how they’ve acted in the past – so, no Trump either.

    Hey BTW, did you know that Jeb! got his undergraduate degree from UT in, get this, Latin American Studies! Its true (and very funny).

    That’s a shame because Rubio is going to win.

    • #28
  29. EThompson Inactive
    EThompson
    @EThompson

    Casey:

    LilyBart:People I WILL NOT vote for include:

    Jeb!, Rubio, Kasich, Huckabee, Christie and Trump.

    Don’t ask. The answer is “no”. The same ole, same ole is just taking us down the wrong path. And Trump is, well, Trump – you can’t just look at what someone says now, during an election, but look at how they’ve acted in the past – so, no Trump either.

    Hey BTW, did you know that Jeb! got his undergraduate degree from UT in, get this, Latin American Studies! Its true (and very funny).

    That’s a shame because Rubio is going to win.

    I don’t think you’re wrong and again, I won’t lose sleep over this providing he selects Carly as his running mate.

    • #29
  30. Commodore BTC Inactive
    Commodore BTC
    @CommodoreBTC

    prediction markets will eventually replace polling for how people track political races

    • #30
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