Will Jewish Democrats Sink the Iran Deal?

 

shutterstock_197638877“Seven Jewish Lawmakers Could Tilt the Scales on Iran Deal,” headlines The Times of Israel. The members — Sen. Charles Schumer, Rep. Steven Israel, Rep. Eliot Engel, Rep. Adam Schiff, Rep. Nita Lowey, Sen. Ben Cardin, and Rep. Ted Deutch – are all Democrats. They must choose between loyalty to their party’s president, and concern about what the deal portends for Israeli and American security.

There are long and short answers to the question: “Why are Jews liberal?” The long answer traces back to the Enlightenment in Europe when parties of the right were monarchist and anti-Semitic, while parties of the left favored pluralism and religious freedom. I don’t buy the long argument. Tsar Alexander III, who instigated pogroms against the Jews, is long dead. So is Napoleon, who liberated them. In the meantime, Jews have suffered under communists, who proved just as cruel as the monarchists.

Jewish liberals often explain that their views spring from Jewish tradition, which admonishes the Jewish people to engage in “tikkun olam” or “healing the world.” I’m skeptical. Tikkun Olam is traditionally understood as adhering faithfully to the commandments (keeping kosher, visiting the sick, and observing the Sabbath, for example), the better to prepare the world for the messianic age. Many of those who brandish the Hebrew phrase today have commandeered it to bolster support for same sex marriage, government-run health care, and the rest of the progressive agenda — an interpretation that would, to quote the immortal words of Tevye in Fiddler on the Roof, “cross a rabbi’s eyes.”

No, the short explanation of Jewish liberalism is straightforward. Jewish Americans tend to be disproportionately urban, secular, and educated. Each of those categories is highly correlated with liberalism and membership in the Democratic Party — God (you should forgive the expression) help us. Speaking of Him, Jewish Americans are less likely than any other religious group in America to say they believe in God. A 2013 Pew poll found that 62 percent of Jews reported that their identity was rooted mainly in culture and ancestry rather that religion. Only 34 percent of Jews said they were certain that God exists, compared with 69 percent of the general public (though an additional 38 percent say they believe, but without certainty, placing believers in the majority).

While 62 percent of American Christians and 81 percent of Muslims report attending services at least monthly, only 23 percent of Jews do. Fifty-eight percent of Jewish adults are college graduates, compared with 29 percent of the general population. About 20 percent of Americans live in rural areas. This is true of only 4 percent of American Jews.

Even without knowing anything else about Jews, the above statistics would predict what we see: That about 70 percent of American Jews lean Democrat, while 22 percent are Republicans.

Still, for those Democrats pondering what the Iran vote will mean for their own political futures, other statistics should pull them up short. Though comparatively irreligious, 70 percent of American Jews remain strongly or somewhat strongly attached to the State of Israel. Though some liberal Jews may have, at times, been persuaded by Obama Administration claims that troubles in relations with Israel are traceable to Bibi Netanyahu’s prickly personality, that line is less likely to be effective now that all major parties in Israel have united in opposition to the Iran deal/capitulation.

But here’s the kicker that Senators Schumer, Cardin, and others will want to bear in mind: The American Jewish world is changing very fast. The older, more secular, doggedly liberal Jews are dying off, falling away from organized Jewish life, and intermarrying (which means their children are no longer Jewish in most cases). Orthodox Jews, by contrast, are thriving, and they have large families – 10 or more children are not uncommon. In New York City, the Orthodox accounted for 33 percent of Jews in 2002, but 40 percent only 10 years later. In 2012, 74 percent of Jewish children in New York were growing up in Orthodox homes. The religious/cultural conservatism of these observant Jews affects their political affiliation. Fifty-seven percent of Orthodox Jews are Republicans, and huge majorities are very concerned about Israel.

They might forgive a vote for Obamacare, but a vote to provide billions of dollars to the paymasters of Hezbollah and Hamas; a vote to permit the Iranian regime to acquire missiles, stealth aircraft and more with which to kill Americans and Israelis; a vote that, in essence, accepts the eventual nuclearization of Iran without any corresponding concessions from the mullahs – do Democrats want to chance it?

Published in Foreign Policy
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  1. EThompson Member
    EThompson
    @

    David Sussman:Mona, I just got back from NYC. There were 10,000 people in Times Square rallying against the Iran Deal. Everywhere I went there are young Jewish males wearing yarmulkes with their tzitzits hanging.

    That’s interesting David but I’d bet the majority of those Jewish males wearing tzitzits and yarmulkes are orthodox living in Williamsburg and are far out-numbered by reform and conservative Jews living in Manhattan.

    I will tell you that every one of the numerous reform/conservative Jewish friends I have in the city are Democrats and are openly vocal about the reason for their choice: They associate the GOP with the Religious Right and are so uncomfortable with this image even I hesitate to define myself as a conservative among people I have known and dated and socialized with for decades.

    • #31
  2. Steve C. Member
    Steve C.
    @user_531302

    Has Schumer ever taken an unpopular position? One that might put his political future in doubt?

    From what I know of him, the answers are almost certainly never and no.

    • #32
  3. Douglas Inactive
    Douglas
    @Douglas

    Eric Hines:Schumer, et al., are Democrats first, and Jews second. They’re in the cultural and not religious demographic. As such, they’ll follow their Democrat demographic. They don’t give a rat’s patootie about reputations 15 years from now; they care about the current dependency of others on them and their own nearby personal political gain. Full stop.

    The Iran Nuclear Weapons Deal will be voted down on party lines, and Obama’s veto will be sustained on the same party lines.

    Eric Hines

    Don’t discount the possibility that the feckless GOP leadership will push to approve it, especially in the Senate.

    • #33
  4. The Reticulator Member
    The Reticulator
    @TheReticulator

    Quinn the Eskimo: I didn’t read that as not trying. He just didn’t think we’re going to win.

    Watching political behavior over the past several decades has shown me that such predictions of failure are highly correlated with an unwillingness to try.

    • #34
  5. Old Bathos Member
    Old Bathos
    @OldBathos

    I think for Schumer et al., the Democratic Party comes first.

    The calculus is straightforward.  Nothing Congress does will affect the outcome.  The disaster was baked in 2013 once the mullahs were sure Obama was too weak to hurt them in any way.

    The question is, what is better for Democratic politicians?

    (a) Declare ‘peace in our time’ and paint the GOP as warmongers and hope nothing bad happens before the next election;

    (b) Go on record opposing the President with the risk that the stench of his failure will adhere to the party as a whole.

    The Iranians will not be able to nuke anybody until maybe the 2022 midterms by which time nobody will remember this vote and everybody has time to change positions. (Remember the flip-flops on the Iraq war?)

    Frankly, I would be shocked if Schumer et al. bailed on this.  Liberal Jews will again submit to the interests of the Party.  It’s what they do.

    • #35
  6. Charles Mark Member
    Charles Mark
    @CharlesMark

    1) When this debacle is confirmed will we see the end of all the conspiracy theories about Jews controlling America?

    2) What does being an ally of America mean any more?

    • #36
  7. Mike Silver Inactive
    Mike Silver
    @Mikescapes

    Shumer is playing these Jews. He pretends a moral struggle, but he can vote against the deal without consequence. Elected officials who have a political problem in their district or state are often let off the hook, and allowed to vote on an issue that appeals to their voters. Here, I expect Shumer to vote against. That’s not good enough! He needs to campaign against it amongst his fellow Senators. He won’t. Privately, he’ll look to balance his no vote with off-setting votes in favor of the deal. And the Jewish suckers in NY will be in the dark, while praising him for his courage.

    Mona mentioned certain names, but they are in different houses of Congress. I can’t see how House Jews could swing a vote with such a wide Republican majority. The action is in the Senate. Nor were Boxer, Feinstein or other Jews in the Senate mentioned. So if the Jewish vote is split, what’s to keep any skeptical Dems from going for the Iran deal? You can bet poor, torn Chuck is working hard on these numbers. And his single vote against won’t keep him from the leadership position he seeks.

    This is not the Knesset. The great majority of Senators aren’t Jewish. These Dems are very liberal and glued to the administration. Don’t get your hopes up.

    • #37
  8. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

    Quinn the Eskimo:Honestly, to me, the strongest argument is that if the deal goes badly, they will be singled out by history as the one’s responsible. If Tel Aviv goes up in a mushroom claim in 15 years, no one is going to care how Charlie Rangel voted. But they will come back to Schumer and wonder why he didn’t do anything when he had the chance. From a historical reputational perspective, it might be the most important vote any of those Democrats will take.

    Quinn, you took the words out of my mouth.  This is the reason that I think will influence Senator Schumer the most.  How he comes out on this question will determine how he will vote.

    • #38
  9. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

    Eric Hines:Schumer, et al., are Democrats first, and Jews second. They’re in the cultural and not religious demographic. As such, they’ll follow their Democrat demographic. They don’t give a rat’s patootie about reputations 15 years from now; they care about the current dependency of others on them and their own nearby personal political gain. Full stop.

    The Iran Nuclear Weapons Deal will be voted down on party lines, and Obama’s veto will be sustained on the same party lines.

    Eric Hines

    Eric, I think there is another wild card in the mix.  I think the reaction that senators receive in their meetings with constituents during August is very important.  If constituents react as the Tea Party did in 2010 against Obamacare, the president’s veto will not be sustained.  Sustaining Obama’s veto is not a sure thing.

    • #39
  10. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

    Man With the Axe:Jews feel more at home in the Democratic party, notwithstanding that Roosevelt did not let the refugees from Hitler come in, that Truman prosecuted the Rosenbergs, that Nixon saved Israel during the 1973 war, that today the contributions of Jews to the civil rights movement are largely forgotten and Jews are vilified by black nationalists and Muslims.

    In the past, one of the most powerful political reasons for the support of Israel was that it was bipartisan.  The increasing support for the Palestinians as victims in the Democrat Party has severely eroded that bipartisanship, although there is no historical evidence for Palestinians as victims.

    • #40
  11. Al Kennedy Inactive
    Al Kennedy
    @AlKennedy

    Quinn the Eskimo:

    Retail Lawyer:

    This will not work out well for the Democratic Party.

    We are in a phase much like the era between World War I and World War II. The cost of World War I considered so high that people did everything in their power to avoid going to war again. The result was the single largest armed conflict in human history. Not that something like that could happen to us. After all, we have iPods.

    Quinn, I agree for the period between World War I and World War II.  However why does a war in Iraq sanctioned by the UN at a small cost in human lives and dollar compared to World War II result in the same impulse?  How did the anti-war Left get so strong?

    • #41
  12. Real Jane Galt Coolidge
    Real Jane Galt
    @FakeJohnJaneGalt

    Al Kennedy:

    Man With the Axe:Jews feel more at home in the Democratic party, notwithstanding that Roosevelt did not let the refugees from Hitler come in, that Truman prosecuted the Rosenbergs, that Nixon saved Israel during the 1973 war, that today the contributions of Jews to the civil rights movement are largely forgotten and Jews are vilified by black nationalists and Muslims.

    In the past, one of the most powerful political reasons for the support of Israel was that it was bipartisan. The increasing support for the Palestinians as victims in the Democrat Party has severely eroded that bipartisanship, although there is no historical evidence for Palestinians as victims.

    From the Democrats point of view everybody that is not a white male is a victim and thus a natural Democrat.

    • #42
  13. david foster Member
    david foster
    @DavidFoster

    Survey data on Jews and political affiliation here.  If a Jewish person is female, non-religious, and has postgraduate education, she will almost certainly be a Democrat.  On the other hand, if someone is male, highly-religious, and has only a high school diploma, there’s a good chance he’ll be a Republican.

    Per my earlier comment about the Jewish affinity for education: the study says that only 34% of Jews lack a college degree, compared with 69% of the general population.

    • #43
  14. David Sussman Member
    David Sussman
    @DaveSussman

    EThompson:

    David Sussman:Mona, I just got back from NYC. There were 10,000 people in Times Square rallying against the Iran Deal. Everywhere I went there are young Jewish males wearing yarmulkes with their tzitzits hanging.

    That’s interesting David but I’d bet the majority of those Jewish males wearing tzitzits and yarmulkes are orthodox living in Williamsburg and are far out-numbered by reform and conservative Jews living in Manhattan.

    I will tell you that every one of the numerous reformed/conservative Jewish friends I have in the city are Democrats and are openly vocal about the reason for their choice: They associate the GOP with the Religious Right and are so uncomfortable with this image even I hesitate to define myself as a conservative among people I have known and dated and socialized with for decades.

    Liz, I’m afraid you may be right. My point was those hamlets like Williamsburg and New City (which voted 100% for Hillary 2000 Senate) do have strength in their unilateral voting blocks. Chuckie has to weigh his own political career against a lame duck President. Like I said, however unlikely, that may be our only hope.

    P.S. As a Conservative Jew I can’t and don’t talk politics with my mostly liberal extended family. Sad, but I feel more at home on Ricochet than at some family events.

    • #44
  15. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    Al Kennedy: Quinn, I agree for the period between World War I and World War II. However why does a war in Iraq sanctioned by the UN at a small cost in human lives and dollar compared to World War II result in the same impulse? How did the anti-war Left get so strong?

    A lot of it has to do with poorly managed expectation.  We don’t have patience as a country for war, especially for an insurgency.  One goes from “Mission Accomplished” to a steady drip, drip, drip.  We were told we were going to be liberators but there was still a lot of unrest.  We are the world’s premier superpower and it just didn’t seem like we could get the situation under control and that’s frustrating.

    I think Bush got the benefit of the doubt up until Hurricane Katrina.  I think the perception of how Bush handled that infected how people thought Bush was doing on Iraq.  Throw the nomination of Harriet Miers into the mix at the same time…

    I think the stink of failure has become so corrosive that there is a lot of hesitation to get involved into something that might be protracted.

    Probably some other things too.

    • #45
  16. James Gawron Inactive
    James Gawron
    @JamesGawron

    Quinn the Eskimo:

    Al Kennedy: Quinn, I agree for the period between World War I and World War II. However why does a war in Iraq sanctioned by the UN at a small cost in human lives and dollar compared to World War II result in the same impulse? How did the anti-war Left get so strong?

    A lot of it has to do with poorly managed expectation. We don’t have patience as a country for war, especially for an insurgency. One goes from “Mission Accomplished” to a steady drip, drip, drip. We were told we were going to be liberators but there was still a lot of unrest. We are the world’s premier superpower and it just didn’t seem like we could get the situation under control and that’s frustrating.

    I think Bush got the benefit of the doubt up until Hurricane Katrina. I think the perception of how Bush handled that infected how people thought Bush was doing on Iraq. Throw the nomination of Harriet Miers into the mix at the same time…

    I think the stink of failure has become so corrosive that there is a lot of hesitation to get involved into something that might be protracted.

    Probably some other things too.

    Quinn,

    I don’t want to get off the subject but since you brought it up. It is unconstitutional for the President to employ the army within the borders of the United States. The screw up in New Orleans was by the democratic mayor who lost control of his police force and the democratic governor who couldn’t find the state’s national guard to send them into New Orleans when chaos broke out. FEMA is only a check book. They tried to hire people to go into New Orleans but when it became clear you could lose your life trying to help people the money lost its attraction. All of this debacle took the first 7 days to unfold.

    On the 8th day, President Bush did break the constitution. The President has two divisions under his personal command at all times to intervene in a crisis around the world at a moments notice. The 82nd airborne the most revered elite unit in the army was one of them. Bush invaded New Orleans with the 82nd airborne and saved it from itself. He should have been praised not criticized.

    The news media’s incompetence reaches a level that is criminal sometimes. You must look past everything that you watch to understand what is happening with even the slightest degree of objectivity.

    Regards,

    Jim

    • #46
  17. Quinn the Eskimo Member
    Quinn the Eskimo
    @

    James Gawron: You must look past everything that you watch to understand what is happening with even the slightest degree of objectivity.

    I thought I qualified that with ” I think the perception of how Bush handled that…”

    • #47
  18. david foster Member
    david foster
    @DavidFoster

    My post  the phobia(s) that may destroy America seems relevant to this discussion.  It is about the fear and rage toward Christians, rural people, and Southerners that seems to possess so many high-income, highly-educated urban people.

    • #48
  19. Man With the Axe Inactive
    Man With the Axe
    @ManWiththeAxe

    James Gawron: Bush invaded New Orleans with the 82nd airborne and saved it from itself. He should have been praised not criticized. The news media’s incompetence reaches a level that is criminal sometimes. You must look past everything that you watch to understand what is happening with even the slightest degree of objectivity.

    That is all true.

    But it is also true that every single liberal I know thinks that Bush was criminally negligent in the Katrina aftermath, and that Obama was brilliant in the Sandy aftermath. If we are trying to understand why people vote the way they do, these perceptions are much more important than the reality.

    • #49
  20. EThompson Member
    EThompson
    @

    The screw up in New Orleans was by the democratic mayor who lost control of his police force and the democratic governor who couldn’t find the state’s national guard to send them into New Orleans when chaos broke out.

    You are exactly right James Gawron but I believe the true culprits are not the MSM but ignorant voters who can’t find time to tear themselves away from their smart phone apps to research the facts that affect their country and their own livelihood.

    I’m sick of blaming journalists; I blame The People. For that matter, I’m sick of blaming campaign financing for electoral results as well. BHO could have spent $1 billion in my community and I would have simply sent in my absentee ballot that much sooner.

    • #50
  21. Severely Ltd. Inactive
    Severely Ltd.
    @SeverelyLtd

    EThompson:

    The screw up in New Orleans was by the democratic mayor who lost control of his police force and the democratic governor who couldn’t find the state’s national guard to send them into New Orleans when chaos broke out.

    You are exactly right James Gawron but I believe the true culprits are not the MSM but ignorant voters who can’t find time to tear themselves away from their smart phone apps to research the facts that affect their country and their own livelihood.

    I’m sick of blaming journalists; I blame The People. For that matter, I’m sick of blaming campaign financing for electoral results as well. BHO could have spent $1 billion in my community and I would have simply sent in my absentee ballot that much sooner.

    Don’t stop blaming the MSM. You are right that the voters are lazy and preoccupied, but the media tailors their coverage to take advantage of that. They are as disingenuous as academia.

    • #51
  22. John Berg Member
    John Berg
    @JohnBerg

    Any thoughts on how Oregon Senator Ron Wyden will vote on this?  He is one Jewish senator who has shown some independence from the Obama administration.

    Oregon’s other senator, Jeff Merkley, is a Democrat party line vote.  He’s a perfect fit for the People’s Republic of Portland which now controls the rest of the state.

    • #52
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