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Seeking: Polish Election Expert
So, a lovely Polish guy works as a housekeeper in a building near mine. We make small talk whenever we run into each other. He’s busting his hump to support his family, enterprising, always cheerful, exactly the kind of immigrant the French fear because he’s willing to work for non-union wages. We bonded immediately over our shared views of communism and Putin. (“What is wrong with you guys? He’s KGB!”)
I ran into him today, and as usual we chatted a bit about the recent perturbation on the Métro — construction work, apparently — and his family, and about how amazing it is that everyone in France goes on vacation for the entire month of August. Then as usual we lamented the state of the world, and as usual griped about Putin. I asked him how people in Poland were feeling about things. He shook his head. There’s a problem in Poland, he said. The elections are coming up, and he doesn’t at all like the looks of the opposition party, which he suspects will win. The incumbant party isn’t perfect, he said, but at least they understand you can’t just make money out of nothing.
Now, usually I can fake my way through any casual conversation about politics, but fact is — I was stumped. I’ve been paying no attention to what’s happening in Poland. None. I have no idea who the main parties or political figures are.
As soon as I got home, I rushed to Google it. (Why, I don’t know: It’s not as if I trust any news outlet to report accurately on any country I’ve ever set eyes on, but my Murray Gell-Mann amnesia’s as strong as ever.) At least I’m not apt to be misled by bad reporting: I could find almost no reporting on the subject. The only thing I found that gave me a hint at what he was getting at was this:
… Poland is the European Union member state with the highest number of workers on some form of a temporary contract, 28 percent. It is creating a precarious existence for many Poles and deepening divisions between the haves and have-nots in a post-communist country that is otherwise witnessing impressive economic growth.
The “junk contracts” were originally intended to give flexibility to artists or other professionals working for multiple employers. They lack many of the guarantees of regular employment contracts in Poland, like paid vacation, employer contributions into the national health and pension funds, and protection from being fired at short notice. …
The presidency is largely symbolic. But a more important parliamentary election comes in October, and polls suggest that the pro-market Civic Platform, which has ruled for eight years, faces another stinging defeat. Law and Justice has surged ahead with vows to help the poor with more state intervention in the economy.
A second win by Law and Justice would mark a significant political shift in Poland, the EU’s sixth-largest economy. The party vows to impose higher taxes on the country’s mostly foreign-owned banks and large retailers.
You can guess why I don’t much like the sound of that.
Now, as silly as it may be to form my political judgments based on a casual chat with a Polish guy who works in my neighborhood, I have the feeling that this guy’s sound. I’d like to know more.
Does anyone here know what’s going on in Poland?
Published in Foreign Policy, General
Ryanair is fine. Much better than Spirit.
I would not recommend Aeroflot.
I flew it three times. Before the fall of the Berlin Wall. It was among the many experiences that persuaded me that the organizers of the trip — Chamber musicians on a “peace exchange” — were out of their minds.
Claire- you should get in touch with Clifford Angell Bates (a Straussian who, btw, wrote a stellar book on Aristotle…) who has been living and teaching politics in Warsaw for the past two decades. He can tell you everything you need to know about what’s going on in Poland.
If I were voting in any European country, Euroscepticism would be very high on my priority list. But I would struggle with this set-up.
What does “social conservatism” mean in Poland?
I can think of 3 pretty good reasons why Russia would want Poland in its orbit, if not under its control.
1. Strategic depth. Russia suffered 3 major invasions through Poland in the past 200 years (Napoleon, the Kaiser, and Hitler). I would think that fear of invasion would continue to be a significant Russian concern.
2. Restoration of Russian greatness. Poland was the western outpost of both the Tsarist and Communist Russian empires. I would think that recapturing this historical “glory” would be attractive to Russians.
3. Coal. Poland is a significant coal producer (the 9th largest in the world per Wikipedia). Coal remains an important energy resource, and I would think that adding Polish coal supplies would increase Russian energy leverage in the Eurpoean market.
Radek used to be affiliated with that party. Here’s how Wiki describes it:
Though never a member of the Law and Justice party, he served out the parliamentary term in the Law and Justice Senatorial Club
and when they – L & J-looked like losing the next election, he jumped ship at the offer of being made foreign minister by Donald Tusk of the Civic Platform whose party did win. So there is bad blood between them-Radek and the spurned L & J, and if he’d stayed put it’s likely he’d be on his way to becoming Prime Minister.
L and J would be more euro-skeptic, I think it’s fair to say, whereas Radek is firmly pro-EU. I know a few people in it and we’d all feel comfortable rubbing elbows together.
For the record, Radek and Anne are both friends and I respect them both, but I’m not worried about Law and Justice. It’s another case of center-right parties doing well, because conservatives think they’ve been sold out by the establishment. Sound familiar?
Tanks smack dab on the German border? Like in the good old days….